Search Results (219)

The characterization of lithology within Quaternary aquifers holds significant geological importance for the protection, management, and utilization of groundwater resources, yet it continues to present considerable challenges. Indicator Kriging (IK) is a non-parametric, probability-based method of spatial interpolation. It considers the correlation and variability between data points, and its popularity stems from its alignment with geological experts’ principles. However, it still encounters issues in complex geological conditions. To address the limited capacity of conventional IK in reproducing geological variables within heterogeneous geological settings, this study develops an ordered IK method incorporating field variogram function parameters. This framework dynamically extends IK applications by integrating stratigraphic extension trends, requiring experts to formalize spatial variation trends into geological knowledge data, subsequently transformed into constraint parameters for interpolation. Estimation paths are determined via Euclidean distances between points-to-be-estimated and valid data, executing ordered IK following near-to-far and bottom-to-top principles. Results directly depict QLS formation spatial distributions or undergo expert modification for quantitative analysis, demonstrating superior integration of geological knowledge compared to empirical variogram fitting and partitioned IK estimation. The method reduces deviation from expert-interpreted spatial distributions while maintaining computational efficiency and multi-factor integration, with three case analyses confirming enhanced accuracy in lithology distribution reproduction and improved geostructural congruence in complex geological reconstruction. This approach revitalizes Kriging applications in complex geological research, synergizing domain cognition with computational efficacy to advance precision in geological characterization and support government decision-making. Full article

This study addresses the spatial variability of groundwater levels within a mining basin in Greece. The objective is to develop an accurate spatial model of groundwater levels in the area to support an integrated groundwater management plan. Hydraulic heads were measured in 72 observation wells, which are irregularly distributed, primarily in mining zones. Multiple geostatistical approaches are evaluated to identify an optimal model based on cross-validation metrics. We introduce a novel trend model that includes the surface elevation gradient, as well as the proximity of wells to the riverbed, utilizing a modified Box–Cox transformation to normalize residuals. The results indicate that Regression Kriging with a non-differentiable Matérn variogram outperforms Ordinary Kriging in cross-validation accuracy. The study provides maps of the piezometric head and kriging variance within a Bayesian framework, being among the first to quantify and incorporate river-distance effects within regression kriging for groundwater. Full article

Current InVEST habitat quality assessments rely heavily on subjective expert judgment for parameter specification, introducing substantial uncertainty and limiting their regional applicability. To address this gap, we developed an objective, statistically rigorous framework for parameter derivation by integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), and spatial analysis, supported by high-resolution biotope mapping. The methodology was applied to Gochang-gun, South Korea, where nine threat factors were analyzed using empirical data from 6633 sampling points. PCA identified threat groupings, SEM quantified habitat–threat relationships for sensitivity derivation, and variogram analysis determined maximum influence distances, while 1:5000 scale biotope maps incorporating 14 ecological indicators replaced conventional land cover classifications. These empirically derived parameters were directly incorporated into the InVEST Habitat Quality model, replacing default or expert-based values. As a result, the biotope-based InVEST HQ implementation achieved exceptional performance (R² = 0.892) with crops emerging as the dominant threat factor (sensitivity = 1.000, weight = 34.1%). Compared to the land use/land cover (LULC)-based approach using conventional parameterization, the biotope–PCA–SEM model demonstrated higher predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.805 vs. 0.755), stronger correlations with independent conservation indicators (protected area correlation: 0.457 vs. 0.201), and clearer ecological gradients across UNESCO Biosphere Reserve zones. This framework eliminates subjective bias while maintaining regional specificity, establishing a transferable foundation for evidence-based conservation planning. By demonstrating substantial improvements over conventional parameterization, the study highlights the inadequacy of transferred parameters and provides an objective standard for advancing InVEST applications worldwide. Full article

Biobanks rely on ultra-low-temperature (ULT) storage for irreplaceable specimens, where precise 3D temperature field reconstruction is critical to preserve integrity. This is the first study to apply geostatistical methods to ULT field reconstruction in cryogenic biobanking systems. We address critical gaps in sparse-sensor environments where conventional interpolation fails due to vertical thermal stratification and non-stationary trends. Our physics-informed universal kriging framework introduces (1) the first domain-specific adaptation of universal kriging for 3D cryogenic temperature field reconstruction; (2) eight novel lag-binning methods explicitly designed for sparse, anisotropic sensor networks; and (3) a leave-one-out cross-validation-driven framework that automatically selects the optimal combination of trend model, binning strategy, logistic weighting, and variogram model fitting. Validated on real data collected from a 3000 L operating cryogenic chest freezer, the method achieves sub-degree accuracy by isolating physics-guided vertical trends (quadratic detrending dominant) and stabilising variogram estimation under sparsity. Unlike static approaches, our framework dynamically adapts to thermal regimes without manual tuning, enabling centimetre-scale virtual sensing. This work establishes geostatistics as a foundational tool for cryogenic thermal monitoring, with direct engineering applications in biobank quality control and predictive analytics. Full article

Thin-bedded carbonate reservoirs face significant challenges in characterization and development due to their thin formation thickness, strong interlayer heterogeneity, and rapid sedimentary transformation. In recent years, horizontal wells have played an increasingly important role in improving the productivity of thin-bedded carbonate reservoirs. However, building accurate geological models from horizontal well data is a major challenge for geoscientists. Using Middle East Oilfield A as a case study, this paper analyzes the specific challenges of horizontal well geomodeling and proposes a dedicated strategy for integrating horizontal well-derived constraints into the geological modeling workflow. To address the challenges of structural modeling constrained by horizontal well data, this study proposes three methodologies: stratigraphic layer iteration, virtual control point generation, and localized grid refinement. These techniques collectively enable the construction of a higher-fidelity structural framework that rigorously honors hard well data constraints while incorporating geological plausibility. To address the challenges posed by the spatial configuration of vertical and horizontal wells and the dominant trajectory patterns of horizontal wells, this study introduces two complementary approaches: the exclusion of horizontal well section data (relying solely on vertical wells) and the selective extraction of representative horizontal well section data for variogram derivation. These methods collectively enable the construction of a geologically realistic reservoir model that accurately captures the spatial distribution of reservoir properties. These methodologies not only effectively leverage the rich geological information from horizontal wells but also mitigate spatial clustering effects inherent to such data. Validation through development well production data confirms robust performance, providing transferable insights for reservoir characterization in analogous fields worldwide. Full article

The spatial distribution of soil heavy metals was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors, and the multi-scale characteristics of heavy metals played a key role in analyzing their influencing factors. Taking arsenic (As) of an oil refining site in Shandong as an example, the As was firstly decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) at different scales and a residual using two-dimensional empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Secondly, the spatial variation scales of As, the IMFs, and the residual were quantified by their semi-variograms, respectively. Finally, local spatial correlation analysis and random forest model were employed to analyze the multi-scale features of As, the IMFs, the residual, and environmental variables. The results indicated that the As was decomposed into IMF1, IMF2, IMF3, and a residual using the two-dimensional EMD method, and the corresponding spatial ranges were 72.60 m, 159.30 m, 448.00 m, and 592.36 m, respectively. IMF3 had the highest percentage of variance with a value of 57.56%, indicating that the spatial variation of As was mainly concentrated on a large scale. There were correlations between As and aspect and land use type. However, after the scale decomposition of two-dimensional EMD, there were significant correlations between oil residue thickness and IMF1, land use type and IMF3, land use type, and aspect and residual, respectively. The IMFs and residual had a significant scale–location dependence on environment variables, and the impact of anthropogenic factors on As was mainly reflected at the small and medium scales, while the influence of natural factors was mainly reflected at the large scale. The developed method can provide a methodological framework for the spatial analysis and pollution control of soil heavy metals. Full article

Gas hydrate-bearing sediments in marine environments represent both a future energy source and a geohazard risk, prompting increasing international research attention. In the Shenhu area of the South China Sea, a large volume of drilling and laboratory data has been acquired in recent years, yet a comprehensive framework for evaluating the characteristics of key reservoir parameters remains underdeveloped. This study presents a spatially integrated and statistically grounded framework that captures regional-scale heterogeneity using multi-source in situ datasets. It incorporates semi-variogram modeling to assess spatial variability and provides statistical reference values for geological and geotechnical properties across the Shenhu Area. By synthesizing core sampling results, acoustic logging, and triaxial testing data, representative probability distributions and variability scales of hydrate saturation, porosity, permeability, and mechanical strength are derived, which are essential for numerical simulations of gas production and slope stability. Our results support the development of site-specific reservoir models and improve the reliability of early-phase hydrate exploitation assessments. This work facilitates the rapid screening of hydrate reservoirs, contributing to the efficient selection of potential production zones in hydrate-rich continental margins. Full article

A 3D model integrating mineralogical, petrological, and geostatistical resource estimation was developed for Zone C of the Kofi Birimian gold deposit in Western Mali. Petrographic analysis identified two forms of gold mineralization: (i) native gold or electrum inclusions within pyrite, and (ii) disseminated native gold along pyrite fractures. Four types of hydrothermal alteration–epidotization, chloritization, carbonatization, and albitization were observed microscopically. Statistical analysis of geochemical data classified five lithologies: mafic dyke, felsic dyke, diabase, faulted breccia, and intermediate quartz diorite. Minerals identified petrographically were corroborated by multivariate correlations among elements (Cr, Fe, Ni, Al, Ti, Na, and Ca), as revealed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A 3D borehole-based model revealed spatial correlations between hydrothermal alteration zones and associated geochemical anomalies, notably tourmalinization (B) and albitization (Na), with the latter serving as a key indicator for new exploration targets. The spatial associations of anomalous Ag, B, Hg, As, and Na commonly linked to tourmalinization suggest favorable zones for gold and silver mineralization. Geostatistical analysis identified isotropic continuous mineralized structures for most elements, including gold. Spherical isotropic variograms with ranges from 35 to 75 m were fitted for in situ resource estimation (e.g., silver ≈ 40 m; gold ≈ 60 m). The resulting estimated resources (indicated + inferred), based on a 1.0 g/t Au cut-off, are 2.476 Mt at 3.5 g/t Au indicated (0.278 Moz or 8.67 t), and 1.254 Mt at 2.78 g/t Au inferred (0.112 Moz or 3.49 t). This study provides a framework for identifying new mineralized zones, and the multidisciplinary approach demonstrates the connections between mineralogy and the information embedded in geochemical datasets, which are revealed through appropriate tools and an understanding of the underlying processes. Full article

Accurate and spatially consistent rainfall estimation is essential for hydrological modeling and flood risk mitigation, especially in mountainous tropical regions with sparse observational networks and highly heterogeneous rainfall. This study presents a comparative analysis of six radar–gauge merging methods, including three statistical approaches—Quantile Adaptive Gaussian (QAG), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and radial basis function (RBF)—and three geostatistical approaches—external drift kriging (EDK), Bayesian Kriging (BAK), and Residual Kriging (REK). The evaluation was conducted over the Huong River Basin in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by steep terrain, monsoonal climate, and frequent hydrometeorological extremes. Two observational scenarios were established: Scenario S1 utilized 13 gauges for merging and 7 for independent validation, while Scenario S2 employed all 20 stations. Hourly radar and gauge data from peak rainy months were used for the evaluation. Each method was assessed using continuous metrics (RMSE, MAE, CC, NSE, and KGE), categorical metrics (POD and CSI), and spatial consistency indicators. Results indicate that all merging methods significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall estimates compared to raw radar data. Among them, RBF consistently achieved the highest accuracy, with the lowest RMSE (1.24 mm/h), highest NSE (0.954), and strongest spatial correlation (CC = 0.978) in Scenario S2. RBF also maintained high classification skills across all rainfall categories, including very heavy rain. EDK and BAK performed better with denser gauge input but required recalibration of variogram parameters. EQM and REK yielded moderate performance and had limitations near basin boundaries where gauge coverage was sparse. The results highlight trade-offs between method complexity, spatial accuracy, and robustness. While complex methods like EDK and BAK offer detailed spatial outputs, they require more calibration. Simpler methods are easier to apply across different conditions. RBF emerged as the most practical and transferable option, offering strong generalization, minimal calibration needs, and computational efficiency. These findings provide useful guidance for integrating radar and gauge data in flood-prone, data-scarce regions. Full article

Accurate measurement and understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil water content (SWC) are crucial in various environmental and agricultural sectors. The present study implements a novel precision agriculture (PA) approach under sugarbeet field conditions of two moisture-irrigation treatments with two subfactors, clay loam (CL) and clay (C) soils, for geostatistics modeling (seven models’ evaluation) of time domain reflectometry (TDR) multisensor network measurements. Two different sensor calibration methods (M1 and M2) were trialed, as well as the results of laboratory soil analysis for geospatial two-dimensional (2D) imaging for accurate GIS maps of root zone moisture profiles, granular, and hydraulic profiles in multiple soil layers (0–75 cm depth). Modeling results revealed that the best-fitted semi-variogram models for the granular attributes were circular, exponential, pentaspherical, and spherical, while for hydraulic attributes were found to be exponential, circular, and spherical models. The results showed that kriging modeling, spatial and temporal imaging for accurate profile SWC ${\theta v}_{TDR}$ (m³·m⁻³) maps, the exponential model was identified as the most appropriate with TDR sensors using calibration M1, and the exponential and spherical models were the most appropriate when using calibration M2. The resulting PA profile maps depict spatiotemporal soil water variability with very high resolutions at the centimeter scale. The best validation measures of PA profile SWC ${\theta v}_{TDR}$ maps obtained were Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency NSE = 0.6657, MPE = 0.00013, RMSE = 0.0385, MSPE = −0.0022, RMSSE = 1.6907, ASE = 0.0418, and MSDR = 0.9695. The sensor results using calibration M2 were found to be more valuable in environmental irrigation decision-making for a more accurate and timely decision on actual crop irrigation, with the lowest statistical and geostatistical errors. The best validation measures for accurate profile SWC ${\theta v}_{TDR}$ (m³·m⁻³) maps obtained for clay loam over clay soils. Visualizing the SWC results and their temporal changes via root zone profile geostatistical maps assists farmers and scientists in making informed and timely environmental irrigation decisions, optimizing energy, saving water, increasing water-use efficiency and crop production, reducing costs, and managing water–soil resources sustainably. Full article

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of land degradation (LD) in Damietta Governorate, Egypt, by integrating multiple indices, including the Geology Index (GI), Topographic Quality Index (TQI), Physical Quality Index (PQI), Chemical Quality Index (CQI), Wind Erosion Quality Index (WEQI), and Vegetation Quality Index (VQI). The study findings reveal the following: (1) Soil quality shows moderate suitability for agricultural and developmental activities and can support productive land use with proper management (68.14% physical quality, 51.54% chemical quality), with 14.03–37.75% high-quality areas supporting intensive farming and 10.71–17.83% degraded soils requiring intervention; (2) nearly 31.83% of the area faces high degradation risk, particularly from wind erosion (27.41% high-risk areas), emphasizing the need for erosion control measures; and (3) vegetation analysis shows that 51.5% of land has inadequate cover (low/very low quality), highlighting restoration needs. The LD mapping reveals that 32.70% of the area is at low risk, 35.48% at moderate risk, and 31.83% at high to very high risk, underscoring the need for urgent restoration and sustainable land management practices. The study validates the effectiveness of ordinary kriging (OK) models in predicting soil properties, with tailored variogram models (Exponential, Spherical, and Gaussian) enhancing prediction accuracy. Overall, this study identifies statistically significant factors influencing LD in the study area, providing a data-driven foundation for sustainable land management, agricultural development, and environmental conservation. Full article

Probabilistic models are used to describe random processes and quantify prediction uncertainties in a principled way. Examples include geotechnical and geological investigations that seek to model subsurface hydrostratigraphic properties or mineral deposits. In mining geology, model validation efforts have generally lagged behind the development and deployment of computational models. One problem is the lack of industry guidelines for evaluating the uncertainty and predictive performance of probabilistic ore grade models. This paper aims to bridge this gap by developing a holistic approach that is autonomous, scalable and transferable across domains. The proposed model assessment targets three objectives. First, we aim to ensure that the predictions are reasonably calibrated with probabilities. Second, statistics are viewed as images to help facilitate large-scale simultaneous comparisons for multiple models across space and time, spanning multiple regions and inference periods. Third, variogram ratios are used to objectively measure the spatial fidelity of models. In this study, we examine models created by ordinary kriging and the Gaussian process in conjunction with sequential or random field simulations. The assessments are underpinned by statistics that evaluate the model’s predictive distributions relative to the ground truth. These statistics are standardised, interpretable and amenable to significance testing. The proposed methods are demonstrated using extensive data from a real copper mine in a grade estimation task and are accompanied by an open-source implementation. The experiments are designed to emphasise data diversity and convey insights, such as the increased difficulty of future-bench prediction (extrapolation) relative to in situ regression (interpolation). This work enables competing models to be evaluated consistently and the robustness and validity of probabilistic predictions to be tested, and it makes cross-study comparison possible irrespective of site conditions. Full article

In subsurface geological mapping, it is more than advisable to compare different solutions obtained with neural and other algorithms. Here, for such comparison, we used the previously published and well-prepared dataset of subsurface data collected from the Bjelovar Subdepression, a 2900 km² large regional macrounit in the Croatian part of the Pannonian Basin System. Data on depth were obtained for the youngest (the shallowest) Lonja Formation (Pliocene, Quaternary) and mapped using neural network (NN), inverse distance weighting (IDW), and ordinary kriging (OK) algorithms. The obtained maps were compared based on square error (using k-fold cross-validation) and the visual interpretation of isopaches. Two other algorithms were also tested, namely, random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms, but they were rejected as inappropriate for this purpose solely based on the visuals of the obtained maps, which did not follow any interpretable geological structures. The results showed that NN is a highly adjustable method for interpolation, with adjustment for numerous hyperparameters. IDW showed its strength as one of the classical interpolators, and its results are always located close to the top if several methods are compared. OK is the relative winner, showing the flexibility of variogram analysis regarding the number of data points and possible clustering. The presented variogram model, even with a relatively high sill and occasional nugget effect, can be well fitted into OK, giving better results than other methods when applied to the presented area and datasets. This was not surprising because kriging is a well-established method used exclusively for interpolation. In contrast, NN and machine learning algorithms are used in many fields, and these algorithms, particularly the fitting of hyperparameters in NN, simply cannot be the best solution for all. Full article

Understanding the effects of agricultural practices on soil nutrient dynamics is critical for optimizing land management in arid regions. This study analyzed spatial patterns, driving factors, and surface stocks (0–20 cm) of soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and their stoichiometric ratios (C:N, C:P, and N:P) across six cropping systems (paddy fields, cotton fields, wheat–maize, orchards, wasteland, and others) in the Aksu region, Northwest China, using 1131 soil samples combined with geostatistical and field survey approaches. Results revealed moderate to low levels of SOC, TN, and TP, and stoichiometric ratios, with moderate spatial autocorrelation for SOC, TN, TP, and C:N but weak dependence for C:P and N:P. Cropping systems significantly influenced soil nutrient distribution: intensive systems (paddy fields and orchards) exhibited the highest SOC (22.31 ± 10.37 t hm⁻²), TN (2.20 ± 1.07 t hm⁻²), and TP stocks (peaking at 2.58 t hm⁻² in orchards), whereas extensive systems (cotton fields and wasteland) showed severe nutrient depletion. Soil pH and elevation were key drivers of SOC and TN variability across all systems. The C:N ratio ranked highest in “other systems” (e.g., diversified rotations), while wheat–maize fields displayed elevated C:P and N:P ratios, likely linked to imbalanced fertilization. These findings highlight that sustainable intensification (e.g., paddy and orchard management) enhances soil carbon and nutrient retention, whereas low-input practices exacerbate degradation in arid landscapes. The study provides actionable insights for tailoring land-use strategies to improve soil health and support ecosystem resilience in water-limited agroecosystems. Full article

A new machine learning algorithm, BoxRF, was developed specifically for estimating grades from drillhole datasets. The method combines the features of classical estimation methods, such as search boxes, search direction, and estimation based on inverse distance methods, with the robustness of random forest (RF) methods that come from forming numerous random groups of data. The method was applied to a porphyry copper deposit, and results were compared to various ML methods, including XGBoost (XGB), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), neural nets (NN), and RF. Scikit-learn RF (SRF) performed the best (R² = 0.696) among the ML methods but underperformed BoxRF (R² = 0.751). The results were confirmed through a five-fold cross-validation exercise where BoxRF once again outperformed SRF. The box dimensions that performed the best were similar in length to the ranges indicated by variogram modeling, thus demonstrating a link between machine learning and traditional methods. Numerous combinations of hyperparameters performed similarly well, implying the method is robust. The inverse distance method was found to better represent the grade–space relationship in BoxRF than median values. The superiority of BoxRF over SRF in this dataset is encouraging, as it opens the possibility of improving machine learning by incorporating domain knowledge (principles of geology, in this case). Full article