Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Case Study Regions
2.1. City of Larvik, Norway
2.2. Värmland, Sweden
2.3. Fluvius Region, The Netherlands
2.4. City of Flensburg, Germany
3. The Multi-Scale Co-Production Approach for Local Scenario Development
- Step 1: Select scenarios as boundary conditions
- Step 2: Establish local scenario elements
- What is the demographic structure of the population? What are recent population trends?
- What are the major characteristics of political and socioeconomic importance and/or issues of concern in the case study region?
- How are local politics embedded in and influenced by regional, national, and global politics?
- In which ways is the local economy embedded in global markets? What are the biggest companies in the case study region? Are they national, regional, or global players?
- Step 3: Determine plausible future developments of each scenario element
- Step 4: Draft scenario narratives
- Step 5: Facilitate feedback and discussion with local stakeholders
- Step 6: Refine scenario narratives based on stakeholder discussions
4. Implementation of the Approach in Each Case Study Region
4.1. City of Larvik, Norway
4.2. Värmland, Sweden
4.3. Fluvius-Region, The Netherlands
4.4. City of Flensburg, Germany
5. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Step # | Norway | Sweden | Netherlands | Germany |
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Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)—Global narratives | ||||
-Literature review, emphasis on municipality’s planning documents -Discussions with municipality representatives | -Literature review of guiding documents -Discussion with county and Arvika municipal actors | -Literature review -Expert judgement | -Literature review -Focus group discussion | |
-Literature review, emphasis on municipality’s planning documents -Regional and local statistics (SSB) | -Literature review of guiding documents -Local and regional statistics from web pages and national statistics | -Literature review -Local statistical information -Expert judgement | -Literature review -Regional and local statistics offices | |
Selected scenarios | SSP 1, 2, 3 | VCAB—SSP 1, 2, 3, 5 Arvika—SSP 1, 2, 4, 5 | SSP 1 and 5 | SSP 1,3,4,5 |
Methods used for determining current conditions | -Municipality planning documents -Regional and local statistics (SSB) | -Online brainstorming meetings with municipal and regional representatives -Strategy documents | -Literature review | -Literature review -Statistics offices |
An overview text with factual details created into half-page narratives for the illustrator to create drawings | One narrative drafted for the Värmland county (VCAB) but including the Arvika scenarios as descriptive and illustrative examples | -One-page narrative text drafted by Deltares EVOKED project member | -One-page narrative text drafted by scenario experts | |
-Workshop with children and youth representatives | Online meetings with stakeholders in Arvika and VCAB | Did not take place. Rather feedback was provided by colleagues at Deltares in the form of expert judgement | -Stakeholder workshop -jigsaw puzzle -group discussions | |
-Illustrations revised based on feedback -Presented during open meeting with local politicians | SGI refines text scenarios together with VCAB, Arvika and feedback from CAU. Discussion on potential uses of scenarios. | Focus on SSP 1 and 5 instead of all five scenarios | -replace SSP4 with SSP2 -Email-based feedback -Focus group discussion |
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Vafeidis, A.T.; Reimann, L.; Ellen, G.J.; Goransson, G.; Koers, G.; Van Well, L.; Vollstedt, B.; Tsakiris, M.; Oen, A. Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies. Sustainability 2024, 16, 2578. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062578
Vafeidis AT, Reimann L, Ellen GJ, Goransson G, Koers G, Van Well L, Vollstedt B, Tsakiris M, Oen A. Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies. Sustainability. 2024; 16(6):2578. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062578
Chicago/Turabian StyleVafeidis, Athanasios Thomas, Lena Reimann, Gerald Jan Ellen, Gunnel Goransson, Gerben Koers, Lisa Van Well, Bente Vollstedt, Maureen Tsakiris, and Amy Oen. 2024. "Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies" Sustainability 16, no. 6: 2578. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062578