A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Site Description
2.2. Water Quality Monitoring
2.3. Climatic Data Collection
3. Development of a Process-Based DO Model
3.1. Oxygen Production by Photosynthesis
3.2. Re-Aeration by Wind Regime
For U ≥ 3.7 m/s, KL = 4.33U – 13.3
3.3. Respiration
3.4. Sediment Oxygen Demand
3.5. Dissolved Oxygen Transport Equation
+ αj × (KL/H) × (Csat – Cs)
− αr × θr(T−20) × Chl-a
− SS20 × θs(T−20)/Z (11)
3.6. Model Limitations and Assumptions
3.7. DO Modeling
3.8. Model Evaluation
4. Results
4.1. Model Calibration
Parameter | Calibrated Value | Uncertainty Analysis | |
---|---|---|---|
Value Range | Mean (Mg·L−1) ± Standard Deviation | ||
αpar | 2 | [1,3] | 6.40 ± 0.06 |
αj | 2.6 | [1.3,3.9] | 6.33 ± 0.57 |
αr | 7 | [3.5,10.5] | 6.53 ± 0.73 |
Ss20 | 0.083 | [0.042,0.125] | 6.45 ± 0.21 |
Month | Calibration | Validation | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | r-Squared | NSE | n | r-Squared | NSE | |
Spring | 707 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 1223 | 0.50 | −0.42 |
Summer | 365 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 177 | 0.59 | 0.46 |
Fall | 332 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 384 | 0.42 | 0.32 |
Winter | 708 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 822 | 0.51 | −0.43 |
Year | 2112 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 2606 | 0.61 | 0.21 |
4.2. Uncertainty Analysis
4.3. Sensitivity Analysis
Parameter a | Value | ΔDO (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Spring | Summer | Fall | Winter | ||
αpar | 3 | −0.92 | −0.13 | −6.7 | 0.13 | 0.79 |
αpar | 1 | −5.2 | −1.5 | −12.7 | −11.5 | −2.1 |
αj | 3.9 | 21.8 | 5.3 | 73.7 | 35.0 | 5.4 |
αj | 1.3 | −25.0 | −15.1 | −54.8 | −36.1 | −14.3 |
αr | 10.5 | −19.9 | −8.9 | −49.7 | −30.3 | −10.6 |
αr | 3.5 | 62.9 | 8.9 | 216.7 | 120.2 | 10.6 |
Ss20 | 0.125 | −7.7 | −4.3 | −22.6 | −9.4 | −2.7 |
Ss20 | 0.042 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 45.0 | 11.9 | 2.7 |
4.4. Model Validation
4.5. The Interplay among Model Processes and Weather Conditions
5. Discussions
5.1. Model Performance
5.2. Dynamic Interplay among Model Processes and Weather Conditions
6. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Xu, Z.; Xu, Y.J. A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake. Water 2016, 8, 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8020041
Xu Z, Xu YJ. A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake. Water. 2016; 8(2):41. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8020041
Chicago/Turabian StyleXu, Zhen, and Y. Jun Xu. 2016. "A Deterministic Model for Predicting Hourly Dissolved Oxygen Change: Development and Application to a Shallow Eutrophic Lake" Water 8, no. 2: 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8020041