Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.1.1. Climate System
2.1.2. Natural Vegetation
2.1.3. Agriculture Patterns
2.2. Overview of CMIP6-GCMs
2.2.1. Simulations and Models
2.2.2. Assessed Variables
2.3. Procedures
2.3.1. Robustness and Statistical Significance
2.3.2. Statistical Correlations and the Atmospheric Feedback
3. Results
3.1. LULCC and the Differences among Models in South Asia
3.2. Model Responses to TAS Changes
3.3. Changes in the Energy Fluxes
3.3.1. Radiative Fluxes
3.3.2. Non-Radiative Fluxes
3.3.3. Winter Responses
3.4. Atmospheric Feedback
3.5. Model Responses to PR Changes
3.6. Changes in the Elements of the Moisture Budget
4. Discussion
4.1. TAS Changes
4.2. PR Changes
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
No. | CMIP6 Model Name | Land Surface Model | Country | Horizontal Resolution (Lon. by Lat. in Degrees) | Reference | Land Use Representation | Vegetation Structure | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Irrigation | Cropland | Pasture | LAI | Vegetation Distribution | ||||||
1 | ACCESS-ESM1-5 (ACCESS) | CABLE 2.4 | Australia | 1.9° × 1.2° | [66] | no | yes | no | prognostic | prescribed |
2 | BCC-CSM2-MR (BCC) | BCC-AVIM 2.0 | China | 1.1° × 1.1° | [67] | no | Not included | Not included | prescribed | prescribed |
3 | CanESM5 (CanESM5) | CLASS 3.6-CTEM 1.2; Physics—CLASS 3.6 Biogeochemistry—CTEM 1.2 | Canada | 2.8° × 2.8° | [68] | (Not output) | Not included | Not included | Not included | prescribed |
4 | CESM2 | CLM 5.0 | USA | 1.3° × 0.9° | [69] | yes | yes | no | prognostic | prescribed |
5 | CMCC-ESM2 (CMCC) | CLM 4.5 | Italy | 1.3° × 0.9° | Not available | no | no | no | prognostic | prescribed |
6 | CNRM-ESM2-1 (CNRM) | ISBA-CTRIP | France | 1.4° × 1.4° | [70] | no | yes | no | prognostic | prescribed |
7 | GFDL-ESM4 (GFDL) | GFDL-LM 4.1 | USA | 1.3° × 1° | [71] | no | yes | yes | prognostic | prescribed |
8 | IPSL-CM6A-LR (IPSL) | ORCHIDEE v2.0 | France | 2.5° × 1.3° | [72] | no | yes | no | prognostic | prescribed |
9 | MIROC-ES2L (MIROC) | MATSIRO 6.0 +VISIT-e v1 | Japan | 2.8° × 2.8° | [73,74] | no | yes | yes | prognostic | prescribed |
10 | MPI-ESM1-2-LR (MPI) | JSBACH 3.2 | Germany | 1.9° × 1.9° | [75] | no | yes | yes | prognostic | Simulated |
11 | UKESM1-0-LL (UKESM) | JULES-ES-1.0 | UK | 1.9° × 1.3° | [76] | (Not output) | yes | yes | Not included | simulated |
12 | LUH2 (Land Use forcing dataset) | GLM 2 (Global Land-Use Model) | - | 0.25° × 0.25° | [77] | yes | yes | yes | - |
Variable Name | CMIP6 Variable Code | Unit | Description |
---|---|---|---|
Near-surface air temperature | tas (TAS) | Kelvin | Near-surface air temperature usually at 2 m. |
Precipitation flux | pr (PR) | Kg m2-s−1 | Precipitation flux including both liquid and solid phases. |
Convective precipitation flux | prc (PRconv) | Kg m2-s−1 | Convective precipitation at surface. It includes both liquid and solid phases. |
Soil Moisture upper 10 cm | mrsos (SM) | kg m2 | The mass of water in all phases in a thin surface layer integrated over the uppermost 10 cm of the soil layer. |
Total Soil Moisture | mrso (SM10) | kg m2 | The mass per unit of area (summed over all soil layers) of water in all phases. |
Water Evaporation flux from canopy | evspsblveg (Esoil) | Kg m2-s−1 | The canopy evaporation and sublimation (if present in the model). It may include dew formation as a negative flux. |
Water evapotranspiration flux | evspsbl (Esurf) | Kg m2-s−1 | Evapotranspiration at the surface. The flux of water into the atmosphere due to conversion of both liquid and solid phases to vapor. |
Water evaporation flux from soil | evspsblveg (Esoil) | Kg m2-s−1 | Water evaporation flux from soil including sublimation. |
Surface Upward latent heat flux | hfls (LH) | W m2 | Surface upward latent heat flux. Surface means the lower boundary of the atmosphere and “upward” indicates a vector component that is positive when directed upward. The surface latent heat flux is the exchange of heat between the surface and the air on account of evaporation. |
Surface upward sensible heat flux | hfss (SH) | W m2 | The surface sensible heat flux, also called turbulent heat flux, is the exchange of heat between the surface and the air by the motion of air. |
Atmosphere mass content of water vapor | prw (WV) | kg m2 | Water vapor path vertically integrated through the atmospheric column. |
Leaf area index | lai (LAI) | Unitless | A ratio obtained by dividing the total upper leaf surface area of vegetation by the horizontal surface area of the land on which it grows. |
Surface downwelling shortwave flux in air | rsds | W m2 | Surface solar irradiance for UV calculations. |
Surface upwelling shortwave flux | rsus | W m2 | Shortwave radiation from below. |
Surface downwelling longwave flux in air | rlds | W m2 | Longwave radiation from above. |
Surface upwelling longwave flux in air | rlus | W m2 | Longwave radiation from below. |
Cloud area fraction | clt (Cc) | % | Total cloud area fraction for the whole atmospheric column, as seen from the surface or the top of the atmosphere. It includes both large-scale and convective clouds. |
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Esurf | Esoil | Ecan | SM | SM10 | Cc | PRconv | PR | Qnet | NetSW | NetLW | LWd | Qa | SH | LH | LAI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual | −3.19 | −1.75 | −7.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.82 | −0.94 | −0.07 | 0.11 | −0.11 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.06 | −0.10 | −2.89 |
DJF | −1.16 | 2.91 | 17.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | −1.29 | −0.21 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.07 | −0.01 | 0.08 |
MAM | −2.39 | −4.80 | −4.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −1.73 | −1.17 | −0.11 | 0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | 0.14 | 0.12 | −0.10 | −5.55 |
JJAS | −1.83 | −1.20 | −8.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.74 | −0.59 | −0.01 | 0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | 0.08 | 0.07 | −0.06 | −2.12 |
ON | −3.33 | −4.14 | −6.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 1.63 | 0.82 | −0.09 | 0.01 | −0.02 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.09 | −0.11 | −2.78 |
Model | Annual | DJF | MAM | JJAS | ON | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strength (%) | Area | Strength (%) | Area | Strength (%) | Area | Strength (%) | Area | Strength (%) | Area | |
CESM2 | 21.38 | 23 | 30.12 | 69 | 15.41 | 36 | 19.91 | 32 | ||
CNRM | 15.43 | 93 | 9.82 | 63 | 18.73 | 89 | 17.44 | 91 | ||
IPSL | 11.05 | 54 | ||||||||
UKESM | 13.60 | 60 | 10.74 | 53 | 16.68 | 88 | ||||
CMCC | 32.89 | 68 | 29.27 | 70 | 28.71 | 84 | 19.06 | 68 | 27.63 | 79 |
MPI | 24.10 | 88 | 27.28 | 97 | 21.46 | 54 | 4.62 | 27 | 26.38 | 90 |
Median-Value | 22.74 | 78 | 27.28 | 69 | 18.43 | 57 | 18.73 | 53 | 21.91 | 89 |
Esurf | Esoil | Ecan | SM | SM10 | Cc | Wv | PRconv | LH | LAI | TAS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual | 1.80 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 1.20 | 0.06 | 1.38 | −0.57 |
DJF | 1.28 | 1.28 | 12.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 2.51 | 0.04 | −0.01 | −0.10 |
MAM | 2.52 | 2.32 | 6.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.36 | 1.22 | 0.08 | 2.51 | −0.99 |
JJAS | 1.78 | 2.22 | 6.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 1.21 | 0.05 | 0.58 | −1.52 |
ON | 1.77 | 1.95 | 10.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 1.77 | 0.06 | 0.04 | −0.04 |
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Santos, J.F.; Schickhoff, U.; ul Hasson, S.; Böhner, J. Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models. Land 2023, 12, 880. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12040880
Santos JF, Schickhoff U, ul Hasson S, Böhner J. Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models. Land. 2023; 12(4):880. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12040880
Chicago/Turabian StyleSantos, Juliana Freitas, Udo Schickhoff, Shabeh ul Hasson, and Jürgen Böhner. 2023. "Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models" Land 12, no. 4: 880. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12040880