Climate, Volume 10, Issue 3 (March 2022) – 19 articles

Surface air temperature is an important variable in quantifying extreme heat, but high-resolution temporal and spatial measurement is limited by sparse climate-data stations. As a result, hyperlocal models of extreme heat involve intensive physical data collection efforts or analyze satellite-derived land-surface temperature instead. We developed a geostatistical model that integrates in situ climate-quality temperature records, gridded temperature data, land-surface temperature estimates, and spatially consistent covariates to predict monthly averaged daily maximum surface-air temperatures at spatial resolutions up to 30 m. We trained and validated the model using data from North Carolina. The fitted model showed strong predictive performance with a mean absolute error of 1.61 ${}^{\circ }$F across all summer months and a correlation coefficient of 0.75 against an independent hyperlocal temperature model for the city of Durham. We show that the proposed model framework is highly scalable and capable of producing realistic temperature fields across a variety of physiographic settings, even in areas where no climate-quality data stations are available. Full article

Many low-lying communities around the world are increasingly experiencing coastal hazard risks. As such, climate-related relocation has received significant global attention as an adaptation response. However, emerging cases of populations resisting relocation in preference for remaining in place are emerging. This paper provides an account of residents of Togoru, a low-lying coastal settlement on Viti Levu Island, Fiji. Despite facing significant coastal impacts in the form of coastal erosion, tidal inundation, and saltwater intrusion, Togoru residents are opposing plans for relocation; instead opting for in-situ adaptation. We conceptualize place-belongingness to a land and people—through personal, historic and ancestral, relational, cultural, economic, and legal connections—as critical to adaptation and mobility decision-making. We argue that for adaptation strategies to be successful and sustainable, they must acknowledge the values, perspectives, and preferences of local people and account for the tangible and intangible connections to a place. Full article

The potential impacts of sea level in the study region are presented using the Integrated Procedure for Estimate Sea Level Impacts (IPESLI), made up of Landsat images, official databases, and design software for geographic information systems. IPESLI is useful in areas with little georeferenced and validated information. The sea level projections are based on the climate projections, which incorporate the possible attenuation of the ice sheet near the upper end of Antarctica. Flood risk statistics were used to simulate the frequency of extreme flooding across the planet. The IPESLI was calibrated using seven field visits to compare the height values generated by the digital elevation model against the in situ data. The inundation maps generated in the study can be used to find the most vulnerable areas and initiate decision making for coastal adaptation. The IPESLI procedure has the potential to contribute to the formation of a communication bridge between climate change science and policy makers. The projection is profound for all scenarios, but it is particularly devastating for the Acapulco Diamante area if we start with the worst future climate scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). Full article

This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal seasonal and annual trends of rainfall indices in Perak, Malaysia, during the last 35 years, as any seasonal or spatial variability in rainfall may influence the regional hydrological cycle and water resources. Mann–Kendall and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests were used to assess seasonal and annual trends. Precipitation concentration index was used to estimate variations in rainfall concentration, and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the spatial variability of rainfall. It was found that most of the rainfall indices are showing decreasing trends, and it was most prominent for the southwest monsoon season with a decreasing rate of 2.20 mm/year. The long-term trends for seasonal rainfall showed that rainfall declined by 0.29 mm/year during the southwest monsoon. In contrast, the northeast and the inter-monsoon seasons showed slight increases. Rainfall decreased gradually from 1994 to 2008, and the trend became more pronounced in 2008. On a spatial basis, rainfall trends have shifted from the western regions (i.e., −19 mm/year) to the southeastern regions (i.e., 10 mm/year). Overall, slightly decreasing trends in rainfall were observed in Perak Malaysia. Full article

Direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the ~30+ billion animals consumed as food each year contribute ~14–16% of the global total. The aim of this research is to determine the contribution of meat and animal products to individual GHG footprints. Top-down estimates of GHG emissions from each livestock species are determined using livestock numbers, types, and region-specific emission factors. Comparing livestock emissions with those from individual countries, cattle rank as the third largest emitter after China and the United States (US). The largest uncertainty in these emissions calculations is in the range of emissions factors. Global top-down calculations indicate that the per capita GHG footprint from livestock emissions alone are approximately 1 tCO_2eyr⁻¹. For the United Kingdom (UK) and the US, the calculated GHG livestock-related footprints are 1.1 tCO_2eyr⁻¹ and 1.6 tCO_2eyr⁻¹ per person, respectively. Bottom-up calculations focused on the UK and the US from consumption figures indicated emissions related to meat consumption are approximately 1.3–1.5 tCO_2eyr⁻¹ per person. Comparing dietary changes with other ways of reducing GHG footprints indicates removing dietary meat is similar to avoiding one long-haul flight each year and a larger reduction than driving 100 miles less each week. Full article

Hurricanes and tropical storms (TS) are infrequent but disastrous events to human lives, social activities, and terrestrial ecosystems in coastal regions. Using the Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA)’s Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) model, principal component analysis (PCA), and principal factor analysis (PFA), we estimated impacts of multiple hurricanes and TS on hydrological processes in agricultural and forested watersheds. Five hurricanes and four TS that passed near or through the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFRB) of the Florida panhandle from 1966 to 2018 were selected to estimate their impacts on rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET), evapotranspiration (ET), soil water percolation, surface runoff, stream discharge, groundwater recharge, and water yield (WYLD). Simulations showed that the category of hurricanes was not highly related to the amounts of rainfall, runoff, discharge, and WYLD. Based on PCA and PFA, PET and ET were highly and negatively, rainfall and discharge were highly and positively, and percolation, runoff, groundwater recharge and WYLD were moderately and positively affected by the hurricanes and TS at the ACFRB in the recent 50 years. This study provides water resource managers with critical insights into how multiple hurricanes and TS affected hydrological processes in agricultural and forested watersheds of the coastal region. Full article

Air pollutants, NO, NO₂, and O₃, were examined from April to June 2020 and compared to a 10-year (2010–2019) climatology of these pollutants for two monitoring sites in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, coinciding with local lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. NO and NO₂ values were lower than any of the preceding 10 years at the two Toronto sites for both weekdays and weekends. Ozone concentrations did not have a corresponding decrease and in fact increased for weekdays, similar to other parts of the world. The well-documented ozone weekend effect was considerably muted during the morning rush hour throughout this pandemic period. A Fisher exact test on hourly averaged data revealed statistically significant record hourly minimums for NO and NO₂, but this was not found for ozone, consistent with the aggregate ranking results. These findings are likely the result of considerably reduced vehicular traffic during this time and ozone chemistry in a NOx-saturated (VOC limited) environment. This has important implications for ozone abatement strategies. Full article

This review briefly summarizes the situation regarding food security in East and Southeast Asia. In accordance with the World Food Summit definition and 2009 Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security, the four pillars of food security—food availability, access to food, the stability of food supplies, and food utilization—are closely scrutinized along with the characteristics of food security at the sub-regional level. Historical trends for the agricultural economy and the food trade, such as food imports and exports, production and consumption, and the food price index in the sub-region, are presented and statistically analysed. Additionally, because agricultural industry in this region is vulnerable to climate change, issues about how climate change affects food security in food production systems, agricultural livelihoods, nutrition, and food policy making, which can be linked to the four pillars in different ways, are also discussed. Full article

Air quality is important for the protection of human health, the environment and our cultural heritage and it is an issue that will acquire increased significance in the future due to the adverse effects of climate change. Thus, it is important to not simply monitor air quality, but to make information immediately available to those responsible for monitoring the networks, to policy/decision makers, but also to the general population. Moreover, the development of information technologies over the last couple of decades has allowed the proliferation of real-time pollution monitoring. The work presented herein concerns the development of an effective way of monitoring environmental parameters using dedicated software. It offers a complete suite of applications that support environmental data collection management and reporting for air quality and associated meteorology. It combines modern technologies for the proper monitoring of air quality networks, which can consist of one or more measuring stations. Innovatively, it also focuses on how to effectively present the relevant information, utilizing modern technologies, such as cloud and mobile applications, to network engineers, policy/decision managers, and to the general public at large. It also has the capability of notifying appropriate personnel in the event of failures, overruns or abnormal values. The system, in its current configuration, handles information from six networks that include over 55 air pollution monitoring stations that are located throughout Greece. This practical application has shown that the system can achieve high data availability rates, even higher than 99% during the year. Full article

This paper examines the emerging phenomenon of climate emergency declarations. We focus on the case of Victoria Australia and the 30 councils who have declared a climate emergency with a particular focus on three councils. We explore the drivers, meanings, and implications and to what extent the subsequent plans reflect a reframing of local government roles and actions. We find the emergency declaration movement is catalysing councils beyond symbolic declarations potentially opening up space for change and disruption. Of interest in this paper is also the principal and theoretical implications for citizens, local government, and for research that is connected with this emerging trend. We highlight conclusions, ideas, and perspectives that can be drawn from this study of the Australian practice of climate emergency declarations. Full article

Climate change and natural disasters caused by hydrological, meteorological, and climatic causes have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health, leading to increased mortality and morbidity. Russia is a country that suffers from frequent climatic and weather disasters. This is mainly due to its vast territory, complex geographical and ecological environment, and widely varying climatic conditions. This review provides information on climatological and hydrological extremes in Russia in 2010–2020, floods and droughts, and their impact on the health and well-being of the country’s population. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2010 to 2021. Four conceptual categories were used: “floods”, “droughts”, “human health”, and “Russia”. It is concluded that while most hazardous weather events cannot be completely avoided, many health impacts can potentially be prevented. The recommended measures include early warning systems and public health preparedness and response measures, building climate resilient health systems and other management structures. Full article

Water resources have always been a major concern, particularly in arid and semiarid parts of the world. Low precipitation and its uneven distribution in Algeria, along with fast population and agriculture activity increase and, particularly, recent droughts, have made water availability one of the country’s most pressing issues. The objectives of the studies reported in this article are to investigate and forecast the meteorological and hydrological drought in Wadi Ouahrane basin (270 km²) using linear stochastic models known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). In particular, data from 6 precipitation stations and 1 hydrometric station for the period 1972–2018 were used to evaluate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for 12 months. Then, the multiplicative ARIMA model was applied to forecasting drought based on SPI and SRI. As a result, the ARIMA model (1,0,1)(0,0,1)₁₂ for SPI and (1,0,1)(1,0,1)₁₂ for SRI were shown to be the best models for drought forecast. In fact, both models exhibited high quality for SPI and SRI of 0.97 and 0.51 for 1-month and 12-month lead time, respectively, based on validation R². In general, prediction skill decreases with increase in lead time. The models can be used with reasonable accuracy to forecast droughts with up to 12 months of lead time. Full article

Degraded and drained peat swamp forests (PSFs) are major sources of carbon emissions in the forestry sector. Rewetting interventions aim to reduce carbon loss and to enhance the carbon stock. However, studies of rewetting interventions in tropical PSFs are still limited. This study examined the effect of rewetting interventions on carbon dynamics at a rewetted site and an undrained site. We measured aboveground carbon (AGC), belowground carbon (BGC), litterfall, heterotrophic components of soil respiration (R_h), methane emissions (CH₄), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration at both sites. We found that the total carbon stock at the rewetted site was slightly lower than at the undrained site (1886.73 ± 87.69 and 2106.23 ± 214.33 Mg C ha⁻¹, respectively). The soil organic carbon (SOC) was 1685 ± 61 Mg C ha⁻¹ and 1912 ± 190 Mg C ha⁻¹ at the rewetted and undrained sites, respectively, and the carbon from litterfall was 4.68 ± 0.30 and 3.92 ± 0.34 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The annual average R_h was 4.06 ± 0.02 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ at the rewetted site and was 3.96 ± 0.16 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ at the undrained site. In contrast, the annual average CH₄ emissions were −0.0015 ± 0.00 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ at the rewetted site and 0.056 ± 0.000 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ at the undrained site. In the rewetted condition, carbon from litter may become stable over a longer period. Consequently, carbon loss and gain mainly depend on the magnitude of peat decomposition (R_h) and CH₄ emissions. Full article

Rainfall-runoff modelling in small and ungauged basins represents one of the most common practices in hydrology. However, it remains a challenging task for researchers and practitioners, in particular in a climate change context and in areas subject to drought risk. When discharge observations are not available, empirical or event-based approaches are commonly used. However, these schemes can be affected by several relevant assumptions. In the last years, continuous models have been developed in order to address the major drawbacks of event-based approaches. With this goal in mind, in this work we applied a synthetic rainfall generation model (STORAGE; stochastic rainfall generator), constituting the implementation of a modified version of Neymann-Scott rectangular pulse (NSRP) model, and a continuous rainfall-runoff framework (COSMO4SUB; continuous simulation modelling for small and ungauged basins) specifically designed for ungauged basins within a climate change context. The modeling approach allows one to investigate the drought hazard using specific indicators for rainfall and runoff in a small watershed located in southern Italy. Results show that the investigated area seems to tend to a mild/moderate drought in a future time period of approximately 30 years, with a decrease in seasonal water volumes availability in the range of 15–30%. Finally, our results confirm that the continuous modelling is suitable for rapid and effective design simulations supporting drought hazard assessment. Full article

Extreme value theory is a powerful method that is known to provide statistical models for events rarely observed. This paper presents a modelling framework for the maximum rainfall data recorded in Limpopo province, South Africa, from 1960 to 2020. Daily and monthly rainfall data were obtained from the South Africa Weather Service. In this work, the r-largest order statistics modelling approach is used. Yearly blocks were used in fitting a 61 years’ data set. The parameters of the developed models were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. After the suitable model for data was chosen, i.e., GEVD${}_{r=8}$, the 50-year return level was estimated as 368 mm, which means a probability of 0.02 exceeding 368 mm in fifty years in the Thabazimbi area. This study helps decision-makers in government and non-profit organisations improve preparation strategies and build resilience in reducing disasters resulting from extreme weather events such as excessive rainfall. Full article

Water is a fundamental resource for human life and nature; flood management, water supply systems and water protection policies are a few examples of equally important disciplines across the whole hydrological cycle. The present work focuses on the creation and sharing of hydrological knowledge within public activities, with regard to materials and methods adopted for developing and supplying hydrological information, suitable to different stakeholders needs, throughout different disciplines and sectors of environment, economy, society, as well as research and analysis. The aim of this work is to better understand the market in order to increase the value of hydrological data, products and services, and to reduce potential gaps and overlapping areas. The method we developed is based on the example of the Hydrological Service of Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy. Institutional, legal and territorial frameworks as well as agency organization, materials, methods, instruments, activities, products and results are briefly described, focusing on those supporting civil and environmental protection, water management, infrastructure design, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. We discuss the role of a public Administration in interdisciplinary activities, the links between the general background (e.g., territory, society, rules), organizations, actors, resources, tools, processes and results, by highlighting, where possible, a potential starting point for future research studies. Finally, this paper adopts a novel linguistic style, based on an informal format, in order to explore the set-up and follow-up of the Hydrological Service’s initiatives, with the final aim of sparking curiosity and building awareness, from different sectors and disciplines, which, ultimately, may benefit from the presented approaches. Full article

The droughts that hit North and North Western Europe in 2018 and 2019 served as a wake-up call that temperate regions are also affected by these kinds of slow progressing or creeping disasters. Long-term drivers, such as land-use changes, may have exacerbated the impacts of these meteorological droughts. These changes, which are spread over a long time span, may even be difficult to perceive for an individual, but make a big difference in how these rare weather events impact a region. In this paper, we introduce three long-term drivers: forest fires in Europe, global urbanisation, and global deforestation. We attempt to provide a first assessment of their trends, mainly using statistics derived from satellite imagery published in recent literature. Due to the complexity of drought impacts, and the scarcity of quantitative impact data, the relationship between drought impact and these three processes for land use change is difficult to quantify; however, hence we present a survey of the recent trends in these land use change processes and the possible mechanics by which they affect drought impacts. Based on this survey we can conclude that the extent and the number of wildfires have increased markedly in Europe since 2010. Deforestation is still occurring in the tropics, with a loss of 12% in the last 30 years but has halted in the northern regions. Urbanisation has more than doubled in the same time span in the tropics and subtropics, mostly at the expense of forests, while in Europe urbanisation took place mainly in the northern part of the continent. We can conclude that none of these implicit drought drivers followed a favourable trend in the last 30 years. With consistent and worldwide monitoring, for example, by using satellite imagery, we can regularly inform the scientific community on the trends in these drought impact affecting processes, thus helping decision makers to understand how far we have progressed in making the world resilient to drought impacts. Full article

While the zonal-mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is well explained using the zonal-mean energetic framework, the regional variations of the ITCZ have been more difficult to characterize. We show a simple metric, the interhemispheric tropical sea surface temperature (SST) contrast, is useful for estimating the local ITCZ position over seasonal and interannual timescales in modern observations. We demonstrate a linear correspondence between the SST contrast and ITCZ position across oceanic sectors. Though consistently linear, the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to the SST contrast varies from ~1°/K to ~7°/K depending on location. We also find that the location of the Western Pacific interannual ITCZ is negatively correlated with the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean. This result may help put constraints on past and future regional migrations of the ITCZ. Full article

Food waste occurs from harvesting to consumption. Applying procedures and technologies, changing attitudes, and promoting awareness have positive social, economic, and environmental impacts that can contribute to reducing food waste. The paper presents a decision support system (DSS) to predict the quality evolution of fruits and vegetables, particularly of peaches, and estimate its commercialization period at the highest overall perceived quality by consumers, thus contributing to reducing food waste. The Fuzzy Logic DSS predicts the evolution of the physical-chemical parameters of peaches (hardness, soluble solids content, and acidity) depending on the cultivar (Royal Summer and Royal Time), storage time, and temperature. As the range of the values of these physical-chemical parameters of peaches that consumers perceive to be at their highest quality are known, the DSS predicts the marketable period in days. Case studies were developed to analyze the influence of each physical-chemical parameter on the commercialization days (number and time to start). It is concluded that temperature is the most important parameter for fruit conservation. A low value of conservation temperature allows for the significant extension of the time that peaches can be sold at the highest quality. Hardness is used to determine the harvest date since it is an index of fruit ripeness. The same conclusion is obtained for the influence of the soluble solids content. The influence of acidity on marketable days is less than the other physical-chemical parameters. This DSS helps retailers to sell their peaches at the highest quality with benefits for all parties. It also helps in the decision-making concerning the actions to take when fruits are reaching the end of their highest quality by predicting the range of the commercialization days. This formulation can be extended to other fruits and vegetables and in the last instance contribute to the reduction of food loss and waste, consequently promoting social, economic, and environmental aspects of our daily life. Full article