Notes toward a Demographic History of the Jews
Abstract
:1. Jewish Population Size and Geographical Distribution
1.1. Early Origins
1.2. Antiquity through Middle Ages
1.3. Early Modern Era through World War II
1.4. Post World War II to Present
1.5. How Many Jews ever Lived?
2. Determinants of Jewish Population Change
- The balance of births and deaths, or vital events, which is relevant both locally and globally, through significant variation across countries;
- The balance of immigration and emigration, or international migration, which is relevant locally, again through high variability across countries, but can also indirectly affect the global trends in the longer run;
- A third determinant, relevant only to a sub-population, like the Jews, is defined not only by its physical existence but also by certain specific symbolic or cultural criteria: the balance of accessions to and secessions from Judaism, or identification changes.
- The desirability of the event, reflecting on its normative aspects;
- The feasibility of the event, reflecting the economic support framework needed for the event;
- The availability of means and tools—legal, logistical, technological, or other—essential for the event to come into being, and variable according to the specific circumstances of each event.
3. International Migration
3.1. Premodern
3.2. Modern and Contemporary
4. Demographic Transitions
4.1. Lifecycle Vital Events
- Factors specifically related to religion, culture and community organization of the Jews;
- Factors related to legal and other patterns of interaction between the Jewish communities and the non-Jewish environment;
- Factors related to the general characterization of the societal environment and shared by Jews and others at a given time and place.
4.2. Structural and Normative Correlates of Demographic Behaviors
4.3. Differential Reproduction
5. Jewish Identificational Options and Choices
5.1. Boundaries of Jewishness
5.2. Intermarriage
6. Defining, Classifying, Counting the Jews
6.1. Conceptual Steps in Jewish Population Research
6.2. Definitional Alternatives and Their Implications
7. A Note on Population Genetics
8. Implications for Genealogical Studies
- The Jews stem from an initial small nucleus of people originally located in the Middle East. Their subsequent history involved significant entries of people who were external to the original founders, and a massive number of exits, often under duress but also following voluntary choices. This implies a lot of inner coherence but also a certain inherent initial diversity, and huge ramifications out of the core Jewish population at any point in time.
- The size of Jewish minorities has always been relatively small, although at certain points in time, Jewish concentrations could represent a significant share and even the majority of the total population of the respective locales.
- The Jewish population is historically dispersed all around the world. Jews influenced, and were deeply influenced by, the respective environments of residence, enhancing transnational diversity.
- Jewish identity was always differentially and selectively transmitted from one generation to the next by a self-selected pool of families substantially smaller than the total, translating into a different rhythm of growth of the various geographical segments, and of specific sub-groups within each locale. The physical and socio-cultural characteristics and the relational networks of the descendants were therefore significantly different from those of the founders.
- Genealogy is capable of holding together, connecting and reconnecting the ever-transforming chain of the generations, thus restituting coherence to the whole system of Jewish communities and individuals.
- There is no Jewish family where genealogy does not point to multiple geographical origins and possible extensions among non-Jewish populations.
- Genealogy is a compilation and interweaving of events affecting human beings that really occurred. The occurrence of such events could sometimes reflect mere randomity but was most often the product of specific sets of determinants that embedded particular Jewish norms and values along with more general factors shared by Jews and others.
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Years | Years | Initial Pop. Estimate | Final Pop. Estimate | Pop. Growth Estimate | Average Pop. | Birth Rate per 1000 | Yearly Births | Total Births Period | Total Conversions | Total Addition | Cumulated J. Pop. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1500–1100 BCE | 400 | 0 | 600 | 600 | 60 | 25 | 1.5 | 600 | 40 | 640 | 640 |
1100–1060 BCE | 40 | 600 | 600 | 0 | 600 | 25 | 15 | 600 | 4 | 604 | 1244 |
1060–400 BCE | 560 | 600 | 250 | −350 | 500 | 25 | 13 | 7000 | 5 | 7005 | 8249 |
400 BCE–0 | 400 | 250 | 2500 | 2250 | 500 | 25 | 13 | 5000 | 1000 | 6000 | 14,249 |
1–500 | 500 | 2500 | 1200 | −1300 | 1000 | 25 | 25 | 12,500 | 5 | 12,505 | 26,754 |
500–1700 | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 1000 | 25 | 25 | 30,000 | 12 | 30,012 | 56,766 |
1700–1800 | 100 | 1200 | 2500 | 1300 | 1750 | 30 | 53 | 5250 | 10 | 5260 | 62,026 |
1800–1900 | 100 | 2500 | 7600 | 5100 | 6500 | 35 | 228 | 22,750 | 10 | 22,760 | 84,786 |
1900–1940 | 40 | 7600 | 16,500 | 8900 | 13,500 | 25 | 338 | 13,500 | 4 | 13,504 | 98,290 |
1940–1945 | 5 | 16,500 | 11,000 | −5500 | 13,750 | 10 | 138 | 688 | 0 | 688 | 98,978 |
1945–2015 | 70 | 11,000 | 14,800 | 3800 | 12,900 | 20 | 258 | 18,060 | 70 | 18,130 | 117,108 |
2015–2022 | 7 | 14,800 | 15,700 | 900 | 15,250 | 15 | 229 | 1601 | 30 | 1631 | 118,739 |
Factor | Example |
---|---|
Hold | Prohibition to emigrate (such as from the former Soviet Union); legal, socioeconomic and cultural conditions favorable to Jewish presence (like in Western democracies) |
Push | Expulsion (such as from European countries in the Middle Ages); physical persecution, economic sanction, cultural discrimination (like in 19th century Eastern Europe, or in Moslem countries) |
Pull | Normative attractiveness of place (like the Land of Israel); positive legal and socioeconomic conditions (like in Western democracies, or Israel’s Law of Return) |
Repel | Prohibition to immigrate or quotas regulating immigration (like in the U.S. in the 1920s); unfavorable socioeconomic conditions in receiving country |
Year | Years Span | Jewish Population Thousands | Yearly Growth Rate % | Life Expectancy Female | Total Fertility Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1170 | 7 | ||||
130 | 0.9–1.0 | ||||
1300 | 25 | ||||
190 | 0.3–0.4 | 25 | 5.8 | ||
1490 | 50 | ||||
160 | 1.0 | 27.5/30 | 6.4/5.9 | ||
1650 | 250 | ||||
115 | 1.1–1.2 | 30 | 5.9 | ||
1765 | 910 | ||||
60 | 1.5–1.6 | 35 | 5.9 | ||
1825 | 2272 | ||||
55 | 1.7 | 40 | 5.5 | ||
1880 | 5727 | ||||
20 | 2.0 | 45 | 5.4 | ||
1900 | 8510 a |
Variable | Prevailing Norms | Possible Added Effect of Normative Judaism on Frequency | |
---|---|---|---|
Jewish | Catholic | ||
Marriage | |||
1. Universal | Yes | No | + |
2. Early | Yes | No | + |
3. Monogamic | Yes/No a | Yes | (+) |
4. Heterosexual | Yes | Yes | |
5. Consanguineous | (Yes) | No | (+) |
6. Endogamic (religion) | Yes | (No) | (-) |
7. Patrilocal | Yes/No a | No | |
8. Arranged marriage (shiduch) | Yes | No | + |
9. Divorce | (Yes) | No | (-) |
10. Remarriage | Yes | (No) | + |
Fertility | |||
1. “Procreate and multiply” | (Yes) | No | (+) |
2. Sex only for procreation | (No) | Yes | (+) |
3. Purity/couple separation | Yes | No | (+) |
4. Contraception—men | No | No | |
5. Contraception—women | (No) | No | (-) |
6. Sterilization | No | No | |
7. Abortion | (No) | No | (-) |
8. Breastfeeding of infants | Yes | (No) | (-) |
9. Adoption | (Yes) | Yes | |
10. Assisted reproduction | (Yes) | No | + |
% Jews Currently Marrying Non-Jews | 1930s | 1980s | 2020s | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Jewish Pop. Distribution | Country | Jewish Pop. Distribution | Country | Jewish Pop. Distribution | ||||
N 000 | % | N 000 | % | N 000 | % | ||||
Total | 16,500 | 100 | Total | 12,979 | 100 | Total | 15,166 | 100 | |
0–0.9% | Poland, Lithuania, Greece, Palestine, Iran, Yemen, Ethiopia | 4130 | 25 | Israel | 3659 | 28 | |||
1–4.9% | Latvia, Canada, United States, Latin America, United Kingdom, Spain-Portugal, Other Asia, Maghreb, Egypt, Libya, Southern Africa | 6600 | 40 | Mexico, Africa not else stated | 57 | 1 | Israel | 6871 | 45 |
5–14.9% | Switzerland, France, Austria, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia, USSR, Estonia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia | 5340 | 33 | North Africa, Asia besides Israel | 46 | 0 | Mexico, Panama, Belgium, Gibraltar, Iran, North Africa | 92 | 1 |
15–24.9% | Italy, Germany, Netherlands | 385 | 2 | Southern Africa | 120 | 1 | Caribbean low, Venezuela, India, Singapore, South Africa, Australia | 184 | 1 |
25–34.9% | Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavia | 45 | 0 | Canada, Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Brazil, Other Latin America, Europe not else stated | 936 | 7 | Canada, Chile, Rest of Latin America, Austria, France, United Kingdom, Turkey, China, Rest of Africa, N. Zealand | 1196 | 8 |
35–44.9% | Argentina, Italy, France, Belgium | 818 | 6 | Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Spain, Rest of West Europe | 310 | 2 | |||
45–54.9% | United States, USSR, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands | 7186 | 56 | Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Asian FSU, Rest of Asia | 255 | 2 | |||
55–64.9% | Scandinavia, West Germany, Eastern Europe non-USSR | 156 | 1 | United States, Denmark, Rest of East Europe | 6036 | 40 | |||
65–74.9% | Sweden, Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine | 71 | 0 | ||||||
75% + | Cuba | 1 | 0 | Russia, Cuba | 151 | 1 | |||
Weighted world average | 5% | 33% | 31% |
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DellaPergola, S. Notes toward a Demographic History of the Jews. Genealogy 2024, 8, 2. https://doi.org/10.3390/genealogy8010002
DellaPergola S. Notes toward a Demographic History of the Jews. Genealogy. 2024; 8(1):2. https://doi.org/10.3390/genealogy8010002
Chicago/Turabian StyleDellaPergola, Sergio. 2024. "Notes toward a Demographic History of the Jews" Genealogy 8, no. 1: 2. https://doi.org/10.3390/genealogy8010002