2030 Ambitions for Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Green Hydrogen †
College of Engineering, University of Buraimi, Al Buraimi 512, Oman
†
Presented at the 4th International Electronic Conference on Applied Sciences, 27 October–10 November 2023; Available online: https://asec2023.sciforum.net/ .
Eng. Proc. 2023, 56(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/ASEC2023-15497
Published: 31 October 2023
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The 4th International Electronic Conference on Applied Sciences)
Abstract
:Hydrogen production has been dominated by gray hydrogen (hydrogen produced from fossil fuels without carbon capture). Historical data for 2019–2021 show nearly steady global production of and demand for hydrogen, with an annual average of 92 Mt (million tonnes) for each. Both global hydrogen production and demand are expected to grow to 180 Mt in 2030 in compliance with the Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which aims to bring CO2 emissions down to net zero by 2050. Recently, green hydrogen (hydrogen produced via water electrolysis using electricity from renewables) has received increased attention, with the 11 countries (Australia, the United States, Spain, Canada, Chile, Egypt, Germany, India, Brazil, Oman, and Morocco) identified as top producers expected to produce 15.9534 Mt altogether in 2030. All of these countries, except Spain, Canada, and Germany, were classified by the global Hydrogen Council as having optimal green hydrogen production potential. Blue hydrogen (hydrogen produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture) and green hydrogen together constitute clean hydrogen. The share of clean hydrogen in global total final energy consumption (TFEC) was less than 0.1% in 2020. In alignment with the 1.5 °C pathway of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, this share should grow to 3% in 2030 and 12% in 2050, with the aim of producing 154 Mt of clean hydrogen and its derivatives in 2030 (and 614 Mt in 2050) compared to only 0.8 Mt in 2020.
1. Introduction
Hydrogen as an energy carrier or a feedstock can be used in several applications, such as direct electricity generation (through fuel cells, which in turn can be used for stationary applications or for powering electric vehicles, ships, or drones), gas turbines (powered hydrogen as a pure fuel or as a blending fuel to be mixed with natural gas), heating, ammonia production, methanol production, e-fuel production, and iron production (through direct reduced iron, DRI) [1].
Being free from carbon atoms, hydrogen has the environmental advantage of not emitting carbon dioxide (CO2), which helps in reaching carbon neutrality (CO2 neutrality) and mitigating climate change [2]. Moreover, producing green hydrogen and its derivatives (green ammonia, green methanol, or green e-fuels) from electricity produced by renewable energy sources provides a way of storing surplus electricity from variable sources as chemical energy that is readily available and can be transported and traded conveniently [3]. Synthetic non-fossil fuels derived from green hydrogen allow sectors or parts of a sector that are difficult to electrify to remain operational without major changes but reduced harmful emissions through PtX decarbonization [4].
Green hydrogen represents an emerging market, and it is not clear how successful it could be, as this depends on its economic feasibility and its ability to be competitive with traditional energy sources, with or without governmental incentives or subsidies. The growth in demand, the ease of global trade, and the presence of nation-level support are also important factors in promoting the green hydrogen market [5].
The current study presents historical data on hydrogen production and demand, as well as future estimations of clean hydrogen production in different sectors as a contributing component in achieving global carbon neutrality by 2050. The current study also lists the 11 countries with the highest expected 2030 green hydrogen production capacity.
2. Materials and Methods
The current study is based on an analysis of data from several sources, as described in the respective references. These data are in the form of tabulated values, part of a published study, or part of a press release. The next section presents graphical, statistical, and qualitative results obtained after the source data were processed.
3. Results
3.1. Global Hydrogen Production
Figure 1 is a visual representation of numerical data collected from the International Energy Agency (IEA), regarding global hydrogen production in general (not just green hydrogen or clean hydrogen) in 3 consecutive years. The latest year for which data were obtained was 2021 (data accessed on 26 June 2023; last updated on 8 September 2022) [6]. Production was categorized by technology used, with five sources. These historical data were compared with future estimations for 2030 as part of IEA NZE. It is noticeable that there was practically zero green hydrogen production until 2021. Also, the amount of hydrogen produced using each technology did not change significantly between 2019 and 2021. The majority (81.52%) of global hydrogen produced during 2019–2021 was gray hydrogen, which involves a lot of harmful emissions. According to the IEA NZE, this fraction is expected to decline to only 39.84% by 2030.
3.2. Global Hydrogen Demand
Figure 2 presents historical (2019–2021) data for the hydrogen demand worldwide. The latest historical data were obtained for 2021 (data accessed on 26 June 2023; last updated on 16 September 2022) [7]. The variations between 2019 and 2021 were small. Refining activities were the largest consumer of hydrogen, accounting for an average of 42.65% of the total demand during 2019–2021. According to the NZE forecast, the total global demand should nearly double in 2030 compared to its value during 2019–2021, reaching 179.9 Mt H2 instead of 91.67 Mt H2.
3.3. Clean Hydrogen Performance
The 1.5 °C pathway of IRENA is similar to the NZE scenario of the IEA, although the former is more focused on renewable and clean energies. IRENA identified six key performance indicators (KPIs) that correspond to six areas of technological transition, and these KPIs are aligned with meeting the IRENA 1.5 °C target by 2050. The fifth IRENA KPI corresponds to hydrogen, and it is stated as “KPI. 05: The production of clean hydrogen and its derivative fuels must ramp up from negligible levels in 2020 to 154 Mt by 2030” [8].
In addition to this specific hydrogen KPI for 2030, other IRENA performance measures for producing or utilizing clean hydrogen are listed in Table 1.
3.4. Expected Top 11 Countries by Green Hydrogen Production Capacity in 2030
Rystad Energy (an Oslo-based company that conducts independent energy research) identified the 10 countries projected to have the largest green hydrogen production capacity in 2030 [9]. Although Oman (the Sultanate of Oman) was not in this top 10 list, it is included here given its officially announced target of producing 1 Mt H2 annually by 2023 [10], which enables it to be within the list (coming in 10th). The list of these 11 countries with their estimated 2030 production capacity is presented in Figure 3.
The clean hydrogen production potential of the above 11 countries according to the global Brussels-based Hydrogen Council [11] is given in Table 2, along with the recommended (best) type of hydrogen to produce. It was found that 8 of the 11 countries (all except Spain, Canada, and Germany) are considered to have optimal green hydrogen production potential.
4. Discussion
A Germany-led global initiative (scheme) called H2Global was launched to encourage the production of three products derived from green hydrogen outside the European Union (EU). These are ammonia, methanol, and e-kerosene (PtX liquid fuel can be used in aviation). This initiative prompts the production of these products through long-term (10-year) agreements, with the first agreement lasting from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2033. The H2Global initiative also encourages selling imported products to the EU or German consumers through utilizing a governmental (Germany) subsidy of EUR 900 million (approved by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, BMWK, in December 2021) to bring the prices down to an attractive level. The H2Global Foundation was established in June 2021. The first procurement lot is specifically for ammonia [12].
5. Conclusions
The hydrogen market (production side and consumption side) may show quantitative and qualitative changes through greater utilization of hydrogen and its derivatives, and through the replacement of gray hydrogen with clean hydrogen, especially green hydrogen. This study presented miscellaneous, brief details related to this subject.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement
Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement
Publicly available data were analyzed in this study, as described by the relevant cited references.
Conflicts of Interest
The author declares no conflict of interest.
Nomenclature (Alphabetical Order)
| blue hydrogen | hydrogen produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture (thus trapping most or all of the released carbon dioxide, CO2) |
| CCUS | carbon capture, storage, and utilization |
| clean hydrogen | a term that combines blue hydrogen and green hydrogen, also called low-emission hydrogen |
| e-fuel | electrofuel or synthetic fuel (fuel produced by PtX) |
| EJ | exajoule (1018 joules), a large unit of energy |
| gray (grey) hydrogen | hydrogen produced from fossil fuels without carbon capture |
| green hydrogen | hydrogen produced via water electrolysis using electricity generated from renewable energy without harmful emissions |
| IEA NZE | Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which aims to decrease CO2 emissions to net zero by 2050 |
| IRENA 1.5 °C | 1.5 °C pathway (scenario) of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which aims to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C and decrease CO2 emissions to net zero by 2050 |
| KPI | key performance indicator |
| Mt | million tonnes (109 kg) |
| Mt H2 | million tonnes of hydrogen |
| PtX | power-to-X (electricity conversion and energy storage concept that uses surplus electricity to produce something, referred to with the generic letter “X”, such as hydrogen or a liquid fuel) |
| TFEC | total final energy consumption (sum of useful energy that can be directly used by the final consumers without further processing) |
References
- Bruce, S.; Temminghoff, M.; Hayward, J.; Schmidt, E.; Munnings, C.; Palfreyman, D.; Hartley, P. National Hydrogen Roadmap; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO): Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia, 2018.
- Sunny, N.; Dowell, N.M.; Shah, N. What is needed to deliver carbon-neutral heat using hydrogen and CCS? Energy Environ. Sci. 2020, 13, 4204–4224. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ueckerdt, F.; Bauer, C.; Dirnaichner, A.; Everall, J.; Sacchi, R.; Luderer, G. Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2021, 11, 384–393. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
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- Wappler, M.; Unguder, D.; Lu, X.; Ohlmeyer, H.; Teschke, H.; Lueke, W. Building the green hydrogen market—Current state and outlook on green hydrogen demand and electrolyzer manufacturing. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 2022, 47, 33551–33570. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Global Hydrogen Production by Technology in the Net Zero Scenario, 2019–2030. Available online: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-hydrogen-production-by-technology-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2019-2030 (accessed on 26 June 2023).
- Global Hydrogen Demand by Sector in the Net Zero Scenario, 2019–2030. Available online: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-hydrogen-demand-by-sector-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2019-2030 (accessed on 26 June 2023).
- World Energy Transitions Outlook. 2022. Available online: https://www.irena.org/Digital-Report/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2022#page-2 (accessed on 27 June 2023).
- Green Hydrogen: Technology breakthroughs Mean Iridium Shortage and High Prices Will Ease in 2023. Available online: https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/green-hydrogen-technology-breakthroughs-mean-iridium-shortage-and-high-prices-wil (accessed on 27 June 2023).
- Oman Announces Investment Opportunities in Green Hydrogen. Available online: https://fm.gov.om/oman-announces-investment-opportunities-in-green-hydrogen (accessed on 29 May 2023).
- Hydrogen Council. Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness—A Cost Perspective; Hydrogen Council: Brussels, Belgium, 2020. [Google Scholar]
- Supplies—675894-2022—TED (Tenders Electronic Daily). Available online: https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:675894-2022:TEXT:EN:HTML&tabId=0 (accessed on 27 June 2023).
Figure 1.
Global hydrogen production by source technology, in 2019, 2020, and 2021; the corresponding expected production in 2030 according to the NZE of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Figure 1.
Global hydrogen production by source technology, in 2019, 2020, and 2021; the corresponding expected production in 2030 according to the NZE of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Figure 2.
Global hydrogen demand by consuming sector, in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
Figure 3.
Expected annual green hydrogen production capacity of the top 11 producers in 2030, based on projections of Rystad Energy for the cumulative production capacity from 2023 to 2030 for 10 countries (for all the listed countries except Oman), and the government’s announced target for Oman.
Figure 3.
Expected annual green hydrogen production capacity of the top 11 producers in 2030, based on projections of Rystad Energy for the cumulative production capacity from 2023 to 2030 for 10 countries (for all the listed countries except Oman), and the government’s announced target for Oman.
Table 1.
Some targets for clean hydrogen as an environmentally friendlier substitute for fossil fuels, as projected by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) according to its 1.5 °C pathway.
Table 1.
Some targets for clean hydrogen as an environmentally friendlier substitute for fossil fuels, as projected by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) according to its 1.5 °C pathway.
| Hydrogen Target | 2020 (Historical) | 2030 (IRENA 1.5 °C) | 2050 (IRENA 1.5 °C) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annually produced clean hydrogen and its derivatives (Mt/year) | 0.8 | 154 | 614 |
| Equivalent annually produced energy in the form of clean hydrogen and its derivatives (EJ/year) * | >0 (negligible) | 19 | 74 |
| Share of clean hydrogen in TFEC | <0.1% | 3 | 12% |
| Share of clean hydrogen in transport TFEC | <0.1% | 0.7% | 12% |
| Share of ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels in transport TFEC | <0.1% | 0.4% | 8% |
| Share of total world energy use in clean hydrogen in industry (EJ) | >0 (negligible) | 16 | 38 |
| Share of total world energy use in clean hydrogen in buildings (EJ) | 0 (negligible) | 2 | 3.2 |
| Annual investments in hydrogen and its derivatives, including electrolyzers, feedstocks, and infrastructure (USD billion/year) | 0 (negligible) | 133 | 176 |
* 1 kg of hydrogen has approximately 120 MJ of usable energy content (LHV: lower heating value). Thus, 1 Mt of hydrogen is approximately equivalent to 0.120 EJ of energy.
Table 2.
Classification of the expected top 11 producers of green hydrogen in 2030 based on the production potential and the favored type of clean hydrogen (according to a 2020 report by the internationally recognized Hydrogen Council).
Table 2.
Classification of the expected top 11 producers of green hydrogen in 2030 based on the production potential and the favored type of clean hydrogen (according to a 2020 report by the internationally recognized Hydrogen Council).
| Rank (Green Hydrogen) | Country | Production Potential | Hydrogen Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | Optimal | green |
| 2 | United States | Optimal | green and blue |
| 3 | Spain | Average | green |
| 4 | Canada | Optimal | blue |
| 5 | Chile | Optimal | green |
| 6 | Egypt | Optimal | green |
| 7 | Germany | Average | green |
| 8 | India | Optimal | green |
| 9 | Brazil (east) | Optimal | green |
| Brazil (west) | Average | blue | |
| Brazil (remaining) | Average | green | |
| 10 | Oman | Optimal | green |
| 11 | Morocco | Optimal | green |
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Marzouk, O.A. 2030 Ambitions for Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Green Hydrogen. Eng. Proc. 2023, 56, 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/ASEC2023-15497
AMA Style
Marzouk OA. 2030 Ambitions for Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Green Hydrogen. Engineering Proceedings. 2023; 56(1):14. https://doi.org/10.3390/ASEC2023-15497
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarzouk, Osama A. 2023. "2030 Ambitions for Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen, and Green Hydrogen" Engineering Proceedings 56, no. 1: 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/ASEC2023-15497
