Stochastic and Self-Organisation Patterns in a 17-Year PM10 Time Series in Athens, Greece
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Experimental Methods
3. Mathematical Methods
3.1. Statistical Methods
3.2. Chaos and Self-Organisation Methods
3.3. Entropy Analysis
3.4. Entropy Analysis Versus Time
- The time series is divided into windows of equal size, n.
- The data of each window are sub-grouped in N equal-spaced bins.
- In each window, the number of series samples, , is counted that have values between zones, and j. The process is iterated for all possible j, i.e., it is implemented for every zone. If , there will be zones that will not contain series values, namely .
- The probability, , in zone j is calculated as . If , there will be zones with zero probability, since is zero in such cases.
- In every time series window , the Boltzmann entropy is calculated as
3.5. Block Entropy Analysis
4. Results and Discussion
- combined, continuously altering, power-law fractal or SOC state interactions of the PM10 air pollution system with several diverse sources of pollutants such as industrial processes, vehicular emissions and energy production from power stations, coupled with complicated physical and chemical processes [27,34];
- non-linear dynamics governing the PM10 system defined by low-dimensional chaos [55]; and
- exogenous forces (e.g., meteorological processes and photochemical reactions) can amplify or reduce the linear and non-linear mechanisms of the interactions among the ambient pollutants, which can further complicate the temporal structure of the dynamics of ambient pollutant concentrations, leading to complex behaviour of the air pollution system [56].
5. Conclusions
- Statistical and entropy analysis methods are employed for the study of a 17-year PM10 time series recorded from five stations in Athens, Greece. The purpose is to investigate further the stochastic trends of the series and explore if non-stochastic periods of low entropy values exist.
- The stochastic trends are analysed in monthly, two-month and annual windows via lumping and sliding windows. Decreasing time-evolution trends were found: (a) between Windows 40 and 130 for and a step of 32 (lumping process); and (b) between Windows 1 and 4000 for the AGP, THR, ARI and MAR series and between Windows 1 and 3500 for the LYK series, all for and a step of 1 (sliding window process). For Case (b), periods with high variance, skewness above 1 and kurtosis well above 3 are found. Deviations from the Gaussian distribution are addressed in various parts and, therefore, non-statistical behaviour. However, when the data are analysed for and a step of 365 (annual analysis through lumping), they follow the normal distribution. Several outliers are also found. ARI, LYK and MAR stations have similar IQR behaviour, indicating that LYK should be characterised as UT. The discrepancies from the stochastic behaviour are attributed to the multiple facets involved in physical procedures. The related mechanisms are discussed.
- Self organisation is investigated via Boltzmann and Tsallis entropy. Sliding windows of and a step of 1 are employed and symbolic dynamics in selected parts. The majority of the windows of all examined time series exhibit medium to low variations of both entropy values. Several low entropy parts are identified with Boltzmann entropy over Boltzmann constant below -2.0 entropy and Tsallis entropy over the Boltzmann constant below 1.18. The implications of the findings are discussed.
- A previously published combination two-step method is utilised to locate areas for which the PM10 system is out of stochastic behaviour and, simultaneously, exhibits critical self-organised patterns.According to previous publications, the non-stochastic periods are taken those with out of . These periods are located and extracted to ASCII data. The two-step methodology is applied to those periods and the critical entropy periods of Conclusion (b) above. Sixty-six different periods of two-month duration are found in the time series for various dates. From these, nine periods are common to at least three different stations. This is very significant because it is associated with internal dynamics of the GAA basin.
- Searching for enhanced evidence of SOC and fractal trends, as well as long memory, the findings of this study are further compared to previous publications for the same series. Two areas are found for which the series is non-stochastic and exhibit, simultaneously, fractal, long-memory and self-organisation patterns through a combination of 15 different fractal and SOC analysis techniques.
- In the two most significant areas, block entropy analysis is further applied. For comparison, block entropy is also utilised in the remaining identified parts with SOC patterns. Block entropy values are in the range 0.650–2.924 for words of 2–7 letters. Block entropy saturates above five letters. Significantly lower block entropy values are found for the two areas identified with the combination of 15 techniques, compared to the remaining areas.
- This is the first time to utilise entropy analysis for PM10 series and, importantly, in combination with results from previously published fractal methods. This combination approach is expected to be applied in the future to other environmental series, e.g., in environmental ozone and PM2.5 series, as well as in more seismic related series, such as radon in groundwater and soil and environmental electromagnetic disturbances. Despite the limited number of critical windows found, the enhanced evidence, on the one hand, and the increased outcomes, on the other hand, which are expected to be received in more dense time series, make the present approach a significant study tool. Future expectations are the extent of the methodology with multifractal techniques to account for the multifractality found in nature, as well as combining the present techniques with more advanced statistical approaches.
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Monitoring Station | Abbr. | Longitude | Latitude | Alt. (m) | Characterisation | D.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aristotelous | ARI | 23°43’39" | 37°59’16" | 75 | Urban-Traffic | 85.8% |
Lykovrissi | LYK | 23°47’19" | 38°04’04" | 234 | Suburban-Background | 89.2% |
Maroussi | MAR | 23°47’14” | 38°01’51” | 170 | Urban-Traffic | 82.5% |
Agia Paraskevi | AGP | 23°49’09” | 37°59’42” | 290 | Suburban-Background | 88.7% |
Thrakomakedones | THR | 23°45’29’ | 38°08’36” | 550 | Suburban-Background | 77.2% |
Monitoring Station | i/i | Date |
---|---|---|
AGP | 1 | 2005/12/3 |
2 | 2005/12/5 | |
3 | 2007/3/24 | |
4 | 2007/3/25 | |
5 | 2007/7/28 | |
5 | 2007/11/6 | |
6 | 2009/4/4 | |
7 | 2009/4/6 | |
7 | 2010/6/7 | |
8 | 2010/12/28 | |
9 | 2011/6/9 | |
10 | 2013/5/31 | |
11 | 2013/6/1 | |
12 | 2013/6/2 | |
13 | 2013/6/3 | |
14 | 2013/6/4 | |
15 | 2014/6/26 | |
16 | 2014/6/27 | |
17 | 2014/10/19 | |
17 | 2015/1/8 | |
18 | 2015/2/6 | |
19 | 2015/2/2 | |
20 | 2016/5/13 | |
20 | 2016/7/17 | |
ARI | 1 | 2007/3/25 |
2 | 2009/4/4 | |
3 | 2009/4/6 | |
4 | 2010/3/5 | |
5 | 2010/3/6 | |
6 | 2010/3/7 | |
7 | 2010/3/8 | |
8 | 2014/6/26 | |
9 | 2014/6/27 | |
10 | 2015/2/6 | |
11 | 2015/2/2 | |
11 | 2016/5/13 | |
12 | 2016/7/17 | |
LYK | 5 | 2007/7/28 |
1 | 2009/4/4 | |
2 | 2010/2/22 | |
3 | 2010/2/23 | |
4 | 2010/2/25 | |
5 | 2010/6/7 | |
6 | 2014/6/26 | |
7 | 2014/6/27 | |
8 | 2015/1/8 | |
9 | 2016/5/23 | |
10 | 2016/5/24 | |
11 | 2016/5/25 | |
12 | 2016/5/27 | |
MAR | 1 | 2007/3/24 |
2 | 2007/3/25 | |
3 | 2007/6/14 | |
5 | 2007/7/28 | |
3 | 2009/4/4 | |
4 | 2009/4/6 | |
5 | 2010/2/22 | |
6 | 2010/2/23 | |
7 | 2010/6/7 | |
8 | 2014/6/26 | |
9 | 2014/6/27 | |
10 | 2015/1/8 | |
11 | 2015/1/22 | |
12 | 2015/2/6 | |
13 | 2015/2/2 | |
14 | 2015/2/7 | |
15 | 2016/7/22 | |
THR | 1 | 2009/4/4 |
2 | 2009/4/6 | |
3 | 2010/12/28 | |
4 | 2011/6/9 | |
5 | 2015/2/6 | |
6 | 2015/2/2 | |
7 | 2016/7/17 |
i/i | Date | Monitoring Stations |
---|---|---|
1. | 2007/3/25 | AGP, ARI, MAR |
2007/7/28 | AGP, LYK, MAR | |
2. | 2009/4/4 | AGP, ARI, LYK, THR |
3. | 2009/4/6 | AGP, ARI, MAR, THR |
4. | 2010/6/7 | AGP, LYK, MAR |
5. | 2014/6/26 | AGP, ARI, LYK, MAR |
6. | 2014/6/27 | AGP, ARI, LYK, MAR |
2015/1/8 | AGP, LYK, MAR | |
7. | 2015/2/6 | AGP, ARI, MAR, THR |
8. | 2015/2/2 | AGP, MAR, THR |
9. | 2016/7/7 | AGP, ARI, THR |
i/i | Date | Monitoring Stations | Techniques | Publication |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | 2007/7/28 | AGP, LYK, MAR | 13 different fractal techniques | Nikolopoulos et al. [36] |
2. | 2010/6/7 | AGP, LYK, MAR | 13 different fractal techniques | Nikolopoulos et al. [36] |
3. | 2015/1/8 | AGP, LYK, MAR | DFA & RS analysis | Nikolopoulos et al. [37] |
Area 1 | Area 2 | Area Net | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Station | Letters | BE | TE | BE | TE | BE | TE |
AGP | 2 | 1.095 | 0.682 | 1.108 | 0.650 | 1.231 | 0.743 |
3 | 1.679 | 0.896 | 1.143 | 0.699 | 1.847 | 0.921 | |
4 | 1.859 | 0.927 | 1.398 | 0.701 | 2.364 | 1.005 | |
5 | 2.095 | 0.997 | 1.834 | 0.939 | 2.847 | 1.064 | |
6 | 2.095 | 0.997 | 1.835 | 0.938 | 2.843 | 1.069 | |
7 | 2.097 | 0.996 | 1.832 | 0.943 | 2.846 | 1.062 | |
ARI | 2 | 1.196 | 0.731 | 1.206 | 0.735 | 1.328 | 0.792 |
3 | 1.665 | 0.891 | 1.413 | 0.801 | 1.828 | 0.910 | |
4 | 2.119 | 1.009 | 1.678 | 0.900 | 2.442 | 1.039 | |
5 | 2.109 | 0.997 | 1.945 | 0.986 | 2.895 | 1.090 | |
6 | 2.111 | 0.998 | 1.946 | 0.987 | 2.897 | 1.091 | |
7 | 2.112 | 0.998 | 1.947 | 0.987 | 2.898 | 1.091 | |
LYK | 2 | 1.045 | 0.651 | 1.305 | 0.789 | 1.267 | 0.757 |
3 | 1.708 | 0.892 | 1.751 | 0.907 | 1.887 | 0.936 | |
4 | 1.864 | 0.957 | 2.026 | 0.975 | 2.396 | 1.017 | |
5 | 1.981 | 0.976 | 2.138 | 1.015 | 2.924 | 1.094 | |
6 | 1.982 | 0.977 | 2.139 | 1.015 | 2.295 | 1.096 | |
7 | 1.981 | 0.978 | 2.141 | 1.016 | 2.297 | 1.097 | |
MAR | 2 | 1.227 | 0.746 | 1.323 | 0.802 | 1.231 | 0.740 |
3 | 1.821 | 0.943 | 1.775 | 0.924 | 1.781 | 0.892 | |
4 | 2.211 | 1.024 | 2.211 | 1.024 | 2.281 | 0.986 | |
5 | 2.369 | 1.057 | 2.222 | 0.993 | 2.534 | 1.035 | |
6 | 2.371 | 1.059 | 2.221 | 0.995 | 2.532 | 1.037 | |
7 | 2.369 | 1.062 | 2.223 | 0.997 | 2.536 | 1.037 | |
THR | 2 | 1.208 | 0.703 | 1.157 | 0.695 | 1.243 | 0.754 |
3 | 1.878 | 0.941 | 1.478 | 0.809 | 1.829 | 0.919 | |
4 | 1.841 | 0.946 | 1.925 | 0.974 | 2.397 | 1.031 | |
5 | 1.981 | 0.976 | 2.025 | 0.993 | 2.849 | 1.068 | |
6 | 1.983 | 0.977 | 2.027 | 0.991 | 2.856 | 1.069 | |
7 | 1.984 | 0.975 | 2.029 | 0.994 | 2.842 | 1.067 |
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Nikolopoulos, D.; Alam, A.; Petraki, E.; Papoutsidakis, M.; Yannakopoulos, P.; Moustris, K.P. Stochastic and Self-Organisation Patterns in a 17-Year PM10 Time Series in Athens, Greece. Entropy 2021, 23, 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23030307
Nikolopoulos D, Alam A, Petraki E, Papoutsidakis M, Yannakopoulos P, Moustris KP. Stochastic and Self-Organisation Patterns in a 17-Year PM10 Time Series in Athens, Greece. Entropy. 2021; 23(3):307. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23030307
Chicago/Turabian StyleNikolopoulos, Dimitrios, Aftab Alam, Ermioni Petraki, Michail Papoutsidakis, Panayiotis Yannakopoulos, and Konstantinos P. Moustris. 2021. "Stochastic and Self-Organisation Patterns in a 17-Year PM10 Time Series in Athens, Greece" Entropy 23, no. 3: 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23030307
APA StyleNikolopoulos, D., Alam, A., Petraki, E., Papoutsidakis, M., Yannakopoulos, P., & Moustris, K. P. (2021). Stochastic and Self-Organisation Patterns in a 17-Year PM10 Time Series in Athens, Greece. Entropy, 23(3), 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/e23030307