6.1. Numerical Simulation
In this section, different m, n, k and are taken and simulation results through the methods mentioned above are displayed. We consider different censoring schemes. For the rest of the paper, the notation means that no unit is withdrawn for the first 5 times, 5 units are withdrawn for 5 times, and no unit is withdrawn for the last 10 times. For other notations, the meanings are similar.
Let
. The average values (AVs) and mean square errors (MSEs) of MLEs are calculated by repeating the EM algorithm 1000 times. To be more practical, both the true values and
are set as the initial values in EM algorithm. The results are given in
Table 1 and
Table 2.
In
Table 1 and
Table 2, the estimates of
get closer to the true value than those of
and
under the same censoring scheme. The results are acceptable because
is the same in two samples. With more information,
gets better estimates. When considering the same sample size and failure times (
k), there are better results if the withdrawal processes are executed in the middle rather than at the beginning and end. Besides,
Figure 3 shows that a more dispersed withdrawal scheme, which means withdrawing the units for several times but not one time, yields better estimates. Comparing censoring schemes
with
, the estimates of
are better as
n increases. The MSEs of
decrease.It is reasonable because if the sample size
n increases and more information of sample B can be utilized, better estimates can be obtained. When keeping
n and
m fixed and increasing
k, estimations under these schemes are better. The plots of MSEs were shown below: (take
as an example).
The parameters of prior distributions are
and linex loss constant
. Then, the Bayes estimates for informative prior under square loss function (say
) and linex loss function (say
) are compared based on 1000 replications. The results are given in
Table 3 and
Table 4.
Table 3 and
Table 4 show that MSEs are bigger and AVs are closer to the true value under linex loss function than the results under square loss function. Bayesian inference performs better than MLEs in terms of MSEs. However, Bayesian estimators mostly underestimate the true parameter values and MLEs do not show this pattern. In the schemes with larger sample sizes, MLEs get better AVs but bigger MSEs than Bayesian estimators. The tables also reveal that MSEs become small with
k increases. As true value increases, the methods mentioned above all show bigger MSEs, which means that the results are more dispersed.
Next, we compare Bayes estimates for non-informative prior and informative prior. According to [
30], let hyperparameters
. The patterns of different schemes are similar to those mentioned above. Observing
Table 5 and
Table 6, it is found that if the samples have more units but the failure times are relatively less, Bayesian estimators with informative priors perform better than those with non-informative priors. When the failure times are relatively more, in another word, there are more observed data even the sample sizes are small, and the results with these two methods have little difference. In addition, the results are closer to the true value under square loss function. In a word, Bayesian estimation with informative prior under square loss function performs best among the methods discussed.
Besides the point estimates, Bootstrap-p, Bootstrap-t, and Bayesian methods are used to obtain the 90% confidence/credible intervals. In
Table 7 and
Table 8, the average lengths (ALs) and coverage percentages (CPs) are calculated based on 1000 replications. In Bootstrap methods, boot-time is set as 1000 (
). Here, IP means under informative prior density and NIP means under non-informative prior density.
Table 7 displays the ALs and CPs of confidence intervals with Bootstrap-p and Bootstrap-t methods. The contrast between Bootstrap-p and Bootstrap-t indicates that CPs are similar but ALs of Bootstrap-t are wider than those of Bootstrap-p. Therefore, the Bootstrap-p method is more appropriate to get the confidence intervals.
Table 8 shows the ALs and CPs of credible intervals under informative prior density and non-informative prior density. The contrast indicates that ALs of NIP tend to be longer than those of IP but CPs are less than those of IP. Obviously, IP performs better than NIP. Besides, for a fixed scheme,
has the best estimates of credible intervals.
Figure 4 displays the contrast of CPs among different methods which also indicates that Bootstrap-p and Bayes method with informative prior are more suitable for interval estimates. Compared to Bootstrap methods, Bayesian method yields better results of credible intervals. In the condition of large
k, CPs increase a lot with both the Bayesian method and Bootstrap methods. When there are sufficient units, choosing the Bayesian method with informative priors is better.
The plots of CPs were shown below: (take as an example).
6.2. Real Data Analysis
In this part, we analyze one application in the coating weights with two real data sets and apply the approaches put forward in the sections above. The data sets are from ALAF (formerly called Aluminium Africa Limited) industry, Tanzania, which contain the coating weights (mg/m
) by chemical procedure on the top center side (TCS) and by chemical procedure on the bottom center side (BCS). For each data set, there are 72 observations. The data were also analyzed by [
11]. The data are shown below:
Data set 1: (TCS)
36.8, 47.2, 35.6, 36.7, 55.8, 58.7, 42.3, 37.8, 55.4, 45.2, 31.8, 48.3, 45.3, 48.5, 52.8, 45.4, 49.8,
48.2, 54.5, 50.1, 48.4, 44.2, 41.2, 47.2, 39.1, 40.7, 40.3, 41.2, 30.4, 42.8, 38.9, 34.0, 33.2, 56.8,
52.6, 40.5, 40.6, 45.8, 58.9, 28.7, 37.3, 36.8, 40.2, 58.2, 59.2, 42.8, 46.3, 61.2, 58.4, 38.5, 34.2,
41.3, 42.6, 43.1, 42.3, 54.2, 44.9, 42.8, 47.1, 38.9, 42.8, 29.4, 32.7, 40.1, 33.2, 31.6, 36.2, 33.6,
32.9, 34.5, 33.7, 39.9
Data set 2: (BCS)
45.5, 37.5, 44.3, 43.6, 47.1, 52.9, 53.6, 42.9, 40.6, 34.1, 42.6, 38.9, 35.2, 40.8, 41.8, 49.3, 38.2,
48.2, 44.0, 30.4, 62.3, 39.5, 39.6, 32.8, 48.1, 56.0, 47.9, 39.6, 44.0, 30.9, 36.6, 40.2, 50.3, 34.3,
54.6, 52.7, 44.2, 38.9, 31.5, 39.6, 43.9, 41.8, 42.8, 33.8, 40.2, 41.8, 39.6, 24.8, 28.9, 54.1, 44.1,
52.7, 51.5, 54.2, 53.1, 43.9, 40.8, 55.9, 57.2, 58.9, 40.8, 44.7, 52.4, 43.8, 44.2, 40.7, 44.0, 46.3,
41.9, 43.6, 44.9, 53.6
For convenience, the data sets are divided by 10. First, to verify that IERD is suitable for the data sets, we fit it for each data set and have Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) distance test. By calculating the largest difference value of empirical cumulative distribtuion functions and the fitted distribution functions and comparing that value with the 95% critical value, we find the data sets can be fitted well. The results are shown in
Table 9:
K-S distances are less than 95% critical value, so the IERD fits well for both data sets.
Figure 5 shows the fitness of the data sets separately. Then, the likelihood ratio test is used to test if the scale parameters can be considered as the same value.
. The
p-value is calculated to be 94.3%. Obviously, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. The two scale parameters can be considered as the same. Based on the null hypothesis, the MLEs are obtained as
.
Use the complete data above and generate observed data for the following three censoring schemes,
,
, and
. Take MLEs for complete data as the initial values of EM algorithm. Then, the AVs and MSEs of MLEs can be obtained in
Table 10.
To verify the stablitity of iteration, we change the initial guesses and plot the trend of the estimates. The results are shown in
Figure 6. The iteration times are 15 times in (a), 23 times in (b) and (c), and 26 times in (d). It is observed that with the same initial guess of
, the more dispersed scheme need less iteration times. When the initial guesses are not close to the true value, the iteration times will increase but the processes are still stable.
In this case, we cannot get the informative priors, so all Bayesian estimates are based on non-informative priors.
Table 11 and
Table 12 record the results of Bayesian method with non-informative priors. The 90% confidence/credible intervals with Bootstrap methods and Bayes estimates for non-informative prior are displayed in
Table 13.
From the real data, some facts are displayed. Bayesian point estimates for non-informative prior under square loss function are higher than those under linex function. Besides, the first scheme
corresponds to higher estimates in point estimations and shorter interval lengths in interval estimations.
Table 13 reveals that Bayesian inference under non-informative priors yields shorter interval lengths than Bootstrap-p and Bootstrap-t methods. More dispersed schemes and Bayesian inference are preferred in real data analysis.