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Entropy
Volume 27
Issue 2
10.3390/e27020205
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Article

Earthquake Forecasting Based on b Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China

by
Yuchen Zhang
1,2,
Rui Wang
2,3,
Haixia Shi
4,
Miao Miao
2,
Jiancang Zhuang
5,
Ying Chang
6,
Changsheng Jiang
7,
Lingyuan Meng
4,
Danning Li
8,
Lifang Liu
8,
Youjin Su
8,
Zhenguo Zhang
2 and
Peng Han
2,3,*
1
Department of Astronautical Science and Mechanics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
2
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
3
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting and Risk Assessment, Ministry of Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
4
China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
5
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan
6
BGRIMM Technology Group, Institute of Mining Engineering, Beijing 100160, China
7
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
8
Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy 2025, 27(2), 205; https://doi.org/10.3390/e27020205
Submission received: 13 January 2025 / Revised: 8 February 2025 / Accepted: 13 February 2025 / Published: 15 February 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Time Series Analysis in Earthquake Complex Networks)
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Abstract

Characterized by frequent earthquakes and a dense population, Yunnan Province, China, faces significant seismic hazards and is a hot place for earthquake forecasting research. In a previous study, we evaluated the performance of the b value for 5-year seismic forecasting during 2000–2019 and made a forward prediction of M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in 2020–2024. In this study, with the forecast period having passed, we first revisit the results and assess the forward prediction performance. Then, the background seismicity rate, which may also offer valuable long-term forecasting information, is incorporated into earthquake prediction for Yunnan Province. To assess the effectiveness of the prediction, the Molchan Error Diagram (MED), Probability Gain (PG), and Probability Difference (PD) are employed. Using a 25-year catalog, the spatial b value and background seismicity rate across five temporal windows are calculated, and 86 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes as prediction samples are examined. The predictive performance of the background seismicity rate and b value is comprehensively tested and shown to be useful for 5-year forecasting in Yunnan. The performance of the b value exhibits a positive correlation with the predicted earthquake magnitude. The synergistic effect of combining these two predictors is also revealed. Finally, using the threshold corresponding to the maximum PD, we integrate the forecast information of background seismicity rates and the b value. A forward prediction is derived for the period from January 2025 to December 2029. This study can be helpful for disaster preparedness and risk management in Yunnan Province, China.
Keywords: earthquake forecast; b value; background seismicity rate; Molchan Error Diagram; Yunnan Province earthquake forecast; b value; background seismicity rate; Molchan Error Diagram; Yunnan Province

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, Y.; Wang, R.; Shi, H.; Miao, M.; Zhuang, J.; Chang, Y.; Jiang, C.; Meng, L.; Li, D.; Liu, L.; et al. Earthquake Forecasting Based on b Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China. Entropy 2025, 27, 205. https://doi.org/10.3390/e27020205

AMA Style

Zhang Y, Wang R, Shi H, Miao M, Zhuang J, Chang Y, Jiang C, Meng L, Li D, Liu L, et al. Earthquake Forecasting Based on b Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China. Entropy. 2025; 27(2):205. https://doi.org/10.3390/e27020205

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Yuchen, Rui Wang, Haixia Shi, Miao Miao, Jiancang Zhuang, Ying Chang, Changsheng Jiang, Lingyuan Meng, Danning Li, Lifang Liu, and et al. 2025. "Earthquake Forecasting Based on b Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China" Entropy 27, no. 2: 205. https://doi.org/10.3390/e27020205

APA Style

Zhang, Y., Wang, R., Shi, H., Miao, M., Zhuang, J., Chang, Y., Jiang, C., Meng, L., Li, D., Liu, L., Su, Y., Zhang, Z., & Han, P. (2025). Earthquake Forecasting Based on b Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China. Entropy, 27(2), 205. https://doi.org/10.3390/e27020205

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