Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis

Guarin-Ardila, Jhon Albert; Montero-Ariza, Rossycela; Astudillo-García, Claudia Iveth; Fernández-Niño, Julián Alfredo

doi:10.3390/ijerph17010035

Open AccessArticle

Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis

by

Jhon Albert Guarin-Ardila

¹,

Rossycela Montero-Ariza

¹,

Claudia Iveth Astudillo-García

^2,*

and

Julián Alfredo Fernández-Niño

³

¹

Facultad de Medicina, Fundación Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia

²

Servicios de Atención Psiquiátrica, Secretaría de Salud, Ciudad de Mexico 11410, Mexico

³

Departamento de Salud Pública, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla 081007, Colombia

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(1), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010035

Submission received: 26 October 2019 / Revised: 26 November 2019 / Accepted: 5 December 2019 / Published: 19 December 2019

(This article belongs to the Section Public Health Statistics and Risk Assessment)

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Abstract

Homicides are currently the third leading cause of death among young adults, and an increase has been reported during holidays. The aim of the present study was to explore whether an association exists between Carnival in Barranquilla, Colombia, and an increase in homicides in the city. We used mortality records to identify the number of daily homicides of men and women throughout the week of Carnival, and we compared those with records from all of standard days between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015. Conditional fixed-effects models were used, stratified by time and adjusted by weather variables. The average number of homicides on Carnival days was found to be higher than on a standard day, with an OR of 2.34 (CI 95%: 1.19–4.58) for the occurrence of at least one male homicide per day during Carnival, and 1.22 (CI 95%: 1.22–7.36) for female homicides, adjusted by weather variables. The occurrence of homicides during Carnival was observed and was similar to findings for other holidays. Given that violence is a multifactorial phenomenon, the identification of the factors involved serves as a basis for evaluating whether current strategies have a positive effect on controlling it.

Keywords: homicide; violence; time-series studies; Colombia

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MDPI and ACS Style

Guarin-Ardila, J.A.; Montero-Ariza, R.; Astudillo-García, C.I.; Fernández-Niño, J.A. Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010035

AMA Style

Guarin-Ardila JA, Montero-Ariza R, Astudillo-García CI, Fernández-Niño JA. Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(1):35. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010035

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guarin-Ardila, Jhon Albert, Rossycela Montero-Ariza, Claudia Iveth Astudillo-García, and Julián Alfredo Fernández-Niño. 2020. "Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 1: 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010035

APA Style

Guarin-Ardila, J. A., Montero-Ariza, R., Astudillo-García, C. I., & Fernández-Niño, J. A. (2020). Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(1), 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010035

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Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis

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