Explaining the Association between Driver’s Age and the Risk of Causing a Road Crash through Mediation Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Literature Review
1.2. Assumptions
- A direct causal path (DCP). In this path, the driver’s age is associated with the risk of a crash regardless of the amount and type of exposure (the road, the time of the day, the type of vehicle driven, etc.). The reasons for this DCP would be those described in the first paragraph of this introduction for both younger and older drivers. Ultimately, all of these circumstances lead to a loss of optimal driving capabilities or to riskier driving behavior;
- An indirect causal path (ICP). In this path, the driver’s age is associated with an increased crash risk because it is causally associated with a riskier driving environment or a riskier vehicle: for example, younger drivers tend to drive more frequently at night, while aged drivers tend to drive more frequently on urban roads.
1.3. Hypotheses and Objectives
- To confirm the excess risk of younger and older drivers of causing a crash compared to middle-aged drivers;
- If this excess risk is confirmed, the second aim is to quantify which part of this higher risk is related to a DCP and which part depends on an ICP, by applying a mediation analysis based on a decomposition method.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Used in the Study
- Subgroup 1. Drivers involved in single crashes in which only one moving vehicle was involved (n = 31,290 drivers);
- Subgroup 2. Offender drivers (drivers who were at fault for the crash), involved in clean collisions (i.e., collisions between two or more moving vehicles, including frontal, front-lateral, lateral, rear or multiple collisions) in which only one of the drivers involved committed a traffic infraction or error immediately prior to the crash) (n = 50,781 drivers involved in as many clean collisions);
- Subgroup 3. Non-offender drivers (drivers who were not at fault for the crash) involved in the 50,781 clean collisions described above (n = 52,131 drivers).
2.2. Main Variables Considered
- Driver variables: Age (<25, 25–34, 35–44ref, 45–54, 55–64, 65–74, >74) sex;
- Vehicle variables: Type (cars, vans, all-terrain vehicles), years since the vehicle was registered (0–4, 5–9, 10–14, >14), presence of defects in the vehicle (no, yes), presence of other passengers in the vehicle (no, yes);
- Environment variables: hour of the day (0–5, 6–11, 12–17, 18–23), area (urban or open road), type of road (highway or motorway, conventional road, street, other), intersection (no, yes), road use (peri urban area, ring road, residential, with special restrictions, other), traffic density (low, medium, high, very high), speed regulation (generic, specific); road surface (normal, altered), light conditions (daylight, twilight without artificial lighting, twilight with artificial lighting, darkness with artificial lightning, darkness without artificial lighting), meteorological conditions (normal, adverse);
- Crash severity (only minor injuries, major injuries, deathly victims). Major injuries were considered when the victim required > 24 h of hospitalization.
2.3. Analytic Strategy
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Categories | Total Sample | Cases | Controls | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | % | N | % | N | % | ||
Age | 18–24 | 15,886 | 13.4 | 11,376 | 16.0 | 4510 | 9.6 |
25–34 | 28,384 | 24.0 | 17,014 | 23.9 | 11,370 | 24.1 | |
35–44 | 29,194 | 24.7 | 15,735 | 22.1 | 13,459 | 28.5 | |
45–54 | 20,831 | 17.6 | 11,551 | 16.2 | 9280 | 19.7 | |
55–64 | 12,487 | 10.6 | 7238 | 10.2 | 5249 | 11.1 | |
65–74 | 7458 | 6.3 | 4965 | 7.0 | 2493 | 5.3 | |
>74 | 4124 | 3.5 | 3308 | 4.7 | 816 | 1.7 | |
Sex | Male | 78,387 | 66.2 | 48,558 | 68.2 | 29,829 | 63.2 |
Female | 39,977 | 33.8 | 22,629 | 31.8 | 17,348 | 36.8 | |
Crash severity | Minor injuries | 107,546 | 90.9 | 63,768 | 89.6 | 43,778 | 92.8 |
Major injuries | 8409 | 7.1 | 5750 | 8.1 | 2659 | 5.6 | |
Deaths | 2409 | 2.0 | 1669 | 2.3 | 740 | 1.6 | |
Zone | Open road | 41,652 | 35.2 | 23,281 | 32.7 | 18,371 | 38.9 |
Urban | 76,712 | 64.8 | 47,906 | 67.3 | 28,806 | 61.1 | |
Type of road | Highway-motorway | 25,769 | 21.8 | 14,726 | 20.7 | 11,043 | 23.4 |
Conventional road | 48,970 | 41.4 | 31,650 | 44.5 | 17,320 | 36.7 | |
Street | 38,024 | 32.1 | 21,182 | 29.8 | 16,842 | 35.7 | |
Other roads | 5601 | 4.7 | 3629 | 5.1 | 1972 | 4.2 | |
Road use | Peri urban | 30,877 | 26.1 | 18,767 | 26.4 | 12,110 | 25.7 |
Ring road | 4398 | 3.7 | 2252 | 3.2 | 2146 | 4.6 | |
Residential | 8350 | 7.1 | 4659 | 6.5 | 3691 | 7.8 | |
Special regulations | 2827 | 2.4 | 1637 | 2.3 | 1190 | 2.5 | |
Other | 71,912 | 60.8 | 43,872 | 61.6 | 28,040 | 59.4 | |
Intersection | No | 71,542 | 60.4 | 44,599 | 62.7 | 26,943 | 57.1 |
Yes | 46,822 | 39.6 | 26,588 | 37.4 | 20,234 | 42.9 | |
Speed regulation | Generic | 77,500 | 65.5 | 47,330 | 66.5 | 30,170 | 64.0 |
Specific | 40,864 | 34.5 | 23,857 | 33.5 | 17,007 | 36.1 | |
Road Surface | Normal | 100,224 | 84.7 | 58,764 | 82.6 | 41,460 | 87.9 |
Altered | 18,140 | 15.3 | 12,423 | 17.5 | 5715 | 12.1 | |
Traffic density | Low | 82,691 | 69.9 | 53,636 | 75.4 | 29,055 | 61.6 |
Medium | 21,003 | 17.8 | 11,528 | 16.2 | 9475 | 20.1 | |
High | 12,817 | 10.8 | 5291 | 7.4 | 7526 | 16.0 | |
Very high | 1853 | 1.6 | 732 | 1.0 | 1121 | 2.4 | |
Hour of the day | 0–5 | 6868 | 5.8 | 5444 | 7.7 | 1424 | 3.0 |
6–11 | 30,981 | 26.2 | 18,915 | 26.6 | 12,066 | 25.6 | |
12–17 | 46,668 | 39.4 | 27,108 | 38.1 | 19,560 | 41.5 | |
18–23 | 33,847 | 28.6 | 19,720 | 27.7 | 14,127 | 29.9 | |
Light conditions | Daylight | 84,858 | 71.7 | 49,465 | 69.5 | 35,393 | 75.0 |
Twilight, no artificial lights | 4338 | 3.7 | 2781 | 3.9 | 1557 | 3.3 | |
Twilight, artificial lights | 2841 | 2.4 | 1588 | 2.2 | 1253 | 2.7 | |
Darkness, artificial lights | 13,307 | 11.2 | 7990 | 11.2 | 5317 | 11.3 | |
Darkness, no artificial lights | 13,020 | 11.0 | 9363 | 13.2 | 3657 | 7.8 | |
Weather | Good | 96,388 | 81.4 | 56,754 | 79.7 | 39,634 | 84.0 |
conditions | Adverse | 21,976 | 18.6 | 14,433 | 20.3 | 7543 | 16.0 |
Vehicle type | Car | 103,520 | 87.5 | 61,725 | 86.7 | 41,795 | 88.6 |
Van | 11,335 | 9.6 | 7126 | 10.0 | 4209 | 8.9 | |
All-terrain | 3509 | 3.0 | 2336 | 3.3 | 1173 | 2.5 | |
Vehicle defects | No | 116,720 | 98.6 | 69,743 | 98.0 | 46,977 | 99.6 |
Yes | 1644 | 1.4 | 1444 | 2.0 | 200 | 0.4 | |
Years since the | 0 to 4 | 19,548 | 16.5 | 10,554 | 14.8 | 8994 | 19.1 |
vehicle was | 5 to 9 | 28,069 | 23.7 | 16,056 | 22.6 | 12,013 | 25.5 |
registered | 10 to 14 | 37,849 | 32.0 | 23,012 | 32.3 | 14,837 | 31.5 |
>14 | 32,898 | 27.8 | 21,565 | 30.3 | 11,333 | 24.0 | |
Other passengers | No | 76,866 | 64.9 | 49,853 | 70.0 | 27,013 | 57.3 |
Yes | 41,498 | 35.1 | 21,334 | 30.0 | 20,164 | 42.7 | |
Total | 118,364 | 100.00 | 71,187 | 60.1 | 47,177 | 39.9 |
(a) Total | Total Effect | Direct Causal Path | Indirect Causal Path | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age Group | OR 1 | 95% CI 2 | OR 1 | 95% CI 2 | Percent Contribution to Total OR | OR 1 | 95% CI 2 | Percent Contribution to Total OR |
18–24 | 2.15 | 2.06–2.24 | 1.97 | 1.89–2.05 | 88.64 | 1.09 | 1.08–1.10 | 11.36 |
25–34 | 1.28 | 1.24–1.33 | 1.22 | 1.19–1.26 | 81.37 | 1.05 | 1.04–1.06 | 18.63 |
35–44 | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | ||
45–54 | 1.06 | 1.02–1.10 | 1.04 | 1.00–1.07 | 61.91 | 1.02 | 1.01–1.03 | 38.09 |
55–64 | 1.16 | 1.11–1.21 | 1.12 | 1.08–1.17 | 78.24 | 1.03 | 1.02–1.05 | 21.76 |
65–74 | 1.65 | 1.57–1.75 | 1.66 | 1.57–1.75 | 100.50 | 1.00 | 0.99–1.02 | −0.50 |
>74 | 3.32 | 3.07–3.60 | 3.02 | 2.78–3.27 | 91.94 | 1.10 | 1.08–1.12 | 8.06 |
(b) Females | ||||||||
18–24 | 2.06 | 1.92–2.21 | 1.89 | 1.77–2.01 | 87.81 | 1.09 | 1.07–1.11 | 12.19 |
25–34 | 1.27 | 1.20–1.34 | 1.21 | 1.15–1.28 | 81.04 | 1.05 | 1.03–1.06 | 18.96 |
35–44 | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | ||
45–54 | 1.14 | 1.08–1.21 | 1.10 | 1.04–1.17 | 73.57 | 1.04 | 1.02–1.05 | 26.43 |
55–64 | 1.46 | 1.35–1.58 | 1.35 | 1.25–1.46 | 78.80 | 1.08 | 1.06–1.11 | 21.20 |
65–74 | 2.31 | 2.04–2.61 | 2.12 | 1.88–2.40 | 89.84 | 1.09 | 1.06–1.12 | 10.16 |
>74 | 4.65 | 3.53–6.14 | 4.00 | 3.05–5.26 | 90.23 | 1.16 | 1.10–1.22 | 9.77 |
(c) Males | ||||||||
18–24 | 2.19 | 2.08–2.31 | 2.02 | 1.92–2.13 | 89.84 | 1.08 | 1.07–1.10 | 10.16 |
25–34 | 1.30 | 1.24–1.35 | 1.24 | 1.19–1.29 | 82.66 | 1.05 | 1.03–1.06 | 17.34 |
35–44 | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | ||
45–54 | 1.01 | 0.97–1.06 | 1.00 | 0.96–1.04 | 7.20 | 1.01 | 1.00–1.02 | 92.80 |
55–64 | 1.05 | 1.00–1.10 | 1.05 | 1.00–1.10 | 96.59 | 1.00 | 0.99–1.02 | 3.41 |
65–74 | 1.51 | 1.42–1.60 | 1.58 | 1.49–1.67 | 111.15 | 0.96 | 0.94–0.97 | −11.15 |
>74 | 3.13 | 2.87–3.41 | 2.94 | 2.70–3.29 | 94.48 | 1.06 | 1.04–1.09 | 5.52 |
(a) Minor Victims | Total Effect | Direct Causal Path | Indirect Causal Path | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age Group | OR 1 | 95% CI 2 | OR 1 | 95% CI 2 | Percent Contribution to Total OR | OR 1 | 95% CI 2 | Percent Contribution to Total OR |
18–24 | 2.10 | 2.01–2.19 | 1.94 | 1.87–2.02 | 89.48 | 1.08 | 1.07–1.10 | 10.52 |
25–34 | 1.28 | 1.23–1.32 | 1.22 | 1.18–1.26 | 81.78 | 1.05 | 1.04–1.06 | 18.22 |
35–44 | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | ||
45–54 | 1.06 | 1.03–1.10 | 1.04 | 1.00–1.08 | 62.33 | 1.02 | 1.01–1.03 | 37.67 |
55–64 | 1.17 | 1.12–1.22 | 1.13 | 1.08–1.18 | 77.61 | 1.03 | 1.02–1.05 | 22.39 |
65–74 | 1.62 | 1.53–1.71 | 1.62 | 1.53–1.71 | 100.26 | 1.00 | 0.98–1.01 | −0.26 |
>74 | 3.31 | 3.03–3.61 | 2.99 | 2.74–3.27 | 91.72 | 1.10 | 1.08–1.13 | 8.28 |
(b) Major Victims and Deaths | ||||||||
18–24 | 2.68 | 2.30–3.13 | 2.25 | 1.93–2.63 | 82.23 | 1.19 | 1.14–1.24 | 17.77 |
25–34 | 1.37 | 1.21–1.56 | 1.27 | 1.12–1.43 | 74.05 | 1.09 | 1.05–1.21 | 25.95 |
35–44 | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | 1 | Reference | ||
45–54 | 0.96 | 0.84–1.08 | 0.97 | 0.86–1.10 | 67.43 | 0.99 | 0.96–1.02 | 32.57 |
55–64 | 1.04 | 0.90–1.21 | 1.07 | 0.93–1.24 | 165.15 | 0.97 | 0.94–1.01 | −65.15 |
65–74 | 1.75 | 1.47–2.08 | 1.88 | 1.58–2.24 | 113.05 | 0.93 | 0.89–0.97 | −13.05 |
>74 | 2.94 | 2.31–3.74 | 2.89 | 2.27–3.68 | 98.40 | 1.02 | 0.96–1.08 | 1.60 |
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Gomes-Franco, K.; Rivera-Izquierdo, M.; Martín-delosReyes, L.M.; Jiménez-Mejías, E.; Martínez-Ruiz, V. Explaining the Association between Driver’s Age and the Risk of Causing a Road Crash through Mediation Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 9041. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239041
Gomes-Franco K, Rivera-Izquierdo M, Martín-delosReyes LM, Jiménez-Mejías E, Martínez-Ruiz V. Explaining the Association between Driver’s Age and the Risk of Causing a Road Crash through Mediation Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(23):9041. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239041
Chicago/Turabian StyleGomes-Franco, Karoline, Mario Rivera-Izquierdo, Luis Miguel Martín-delosReyes, Eladio Jiménez-Mejías, and Virginia Martínez-Ruiz. 2020. "Explaining the Association between Driver’s Age and the Risk of Causing a Road Crash through Mediation Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 23: 9041. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239041