Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design and Data
2.2. Statistical Analysis
2.3. Sensitivity Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis
3.2. Effects of DTR on Mortality
3.3. Effects of TCN on Mortality
3.4. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Mean (Standard Deviation) | Minimum Value | 25th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 75th Percentile | 99th Percentile | Maximum Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weather | |||||||
DTR (°C) | 5.99 (1.98) | 1.30 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 7.30 | 10.80 | 14.00 |
TCN (°C) | 0.00 (1.64) | −10.10 | −0.70 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 3.28 | 6.20 |
Apparent temperature (°C) | 25.65 (8.15) | −1.04 | 19.19 | 27.25 | 32.97 | 36.55 | 39.39 |
Mean temperature (°C) | 23.45 (5.49) | 3.50 | 19.20 | 24.80 | 28.20 | 30.90 | 33.00 |
Relative humidity (%) | 75.20 (13.16) | 19.00 | 69.00 | 77.00 | 84.00 | 97.00 | 100.00 |
Wind speed (m/s) | 1.97 (0.77) | 0.30 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 2.40 | 4.40 | 5.90 |
Daily air pollutants | |||||||
PM10 (μg/m3) | 50.80 (27.77) | 8.69 | 29.82 | 43.81 | 65.45 | 138.90 | 181.76 |
NO2 (μg/m3) | 39.69 (16.51) | 12.00 | 28.32 | 36.10 | 46.97 | 96.55 | 133.71 |
CO (mg/m3) | 0.95 (0.27) | 0.49 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.63 | 1.93 |
SO2 (μg/m3) | 9.50 (4.11) | 3.52 | 7.00 | 8.55 | 10.80 | 24.94 | 54.81 |
PM2.5 (μg/m3) | 32.03 (19.65) | 5.64 | 16.76 | 27.72 | 42.28 | 101.57 | 137.07 |
No. of non-accidental deaths * | |||||||
Total (A00–A99) | 31 (7) | 2 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 49 | 70 |
Age | |||||||
Young people (<65 years) | 14 (4) | 1 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 25 | 30 |
Elderly (≥65 years) | 17 (5) | 1 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 30 | 40 |
Sex | |||||||
Male | 19 (5) | 1 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 32 | 45 |
Female | 12 (4) | 1 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 22 | 28 |
Cardiovascular disease (I00–I99) | 13 (4) | 0 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 24 | 30 |
Age | |||||||
Young people (<65 years) | 5 (2) | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
Elderly (≥65 years) | 8 (3) | 0 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 20 |
Sex | |||||||
Male | 8 (3) | 0 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 20 |
Female | 5 (2) | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 15 |
Respiratory disease (J00–J99) | 2 (2) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
Age | |||||||
Young people (<65 years) | 0 (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Elderly (≥65 years) | 2 (1) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Sex | |||||||
Male | 2 (1) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
Female | 1 (1) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
Group | Lag 0 | Lag 3 | Lag 0–5 | Lag 0–7 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Non-accidental mortality | ||||
Full year | 1.032 (1.008–1.056) | 1.010 (0.997–1.024) | 1.086 (0.999–1.180) | 1.055 (0.951–1.169) |
Cold season | 1.063 (1.027–1.100) | 1.046 (1.029–1.064) | 1.333 (1.192–1.491) | 1.407 (1.233–1.606) |
Warm season | 1.014 (0.991–1.038) | 1.003 (0.991–1.015) | 1.028 (0.952–1.110) | 1.007 (0.920–1.101) |
Cardiovascular mortality | ||||
Full year | 1.037 (1.002–1.074) | 1.018 (0.998–1.038) | 1.133 (0.999–1.286) | 1.124 (0.961–1.314) |
Cold season | 1.066 (1.015–1.119) | 1.052 (1.027–1.077) | 1.371 (1.171–1.606) | 1.470 (1.220–1.771) |
Warm season | 1.031 (0.984–1.080) | 1.006 (0.983–1.029) | 1.063 (0.914–1.236) | 1.016 (0.851–1.213) |
Respiratory mortality | ||||
Full year | 0.961 (0.891–1.036) | 0.986 (0.948–1.025) | 0.895 (0.696–1.151) | 0.924 (0.683–1.250) |
Cold season | 1.077 (0.969–1.198) | 1.073 (1.017–1.131) | 1.529 (1.082–2.162) | 1.741 (1.157–2.620) |
Warm season | 0.999 (0.901–1.108) | 1.016 (0.967–1.069) | 1.084 (0.778–1.511) | 1.165 (0.796–1.706) |
Group | Lag 0 | Lag 3 | Lag 0–5 | Lag 0–7 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Full year | ||||
Male | 1.027 (0.998–1.057) | 1.008 (0.992–1.025) | 1.070 (0.964–1.188) | 1.043 (0.917–1.187) |
Female | 1.038 (1.002–1.076) | 1.013 (0.992–1.034) | 1.107 (0.973–1.260) | 1.072 (0.913–1.259) |
≥65 years old | 1.016 (0.986–1.047) * | 1.016 (0.999–1.034) | 1.102 (0.989–1.229) | 1.140 (0.997–1.303) |
<65 years old | 1.044 (1.011–1.077) | 0.999 (0.982–1.015) | 1.036 (0.933–1.152) | 0.932 (0.821–1.058) |
Cold season | ||||
Male | 1.051 (1.009–1.095) | 1.036 (1.016–1.057) | 1.256 (1.100–1.434) * | 1.306 (1.118–1.527) * |
Female | 1.082 (1.031–1.137) | 1.063 (1.037–1.089) | 1.467 (1.250–1.721) | 1.587 (1.314–1.917) |
≥65 years old | 1.030 (0.987–1.075) * | 1.052 (1.031–1.075) | 1.330 (1.158–1.527) | 1.548 (1.317–1.820) * |
<65 years old | 1.107 (1.056–1.160) | 1.038 (1.014–1.062) | 1.333 (1.144–1.553) | 1.235 (1.028–1.482) |
Warm season | ||||
Male | 1.018 (0.983–1.054) | 1.006 (0.989–1.023) | 1.048 (0.935–1.174) | 1.031 (0.903–1.177) |
Female | 1.016 (0.968–1.066) | 0.998 (0.975–1.022) | 1.007 (0.860–1.178) | 0.963 (0.802–1.157) |
≥65 years old | 1.039 (0.999–1.080) | 1.013 (0.994–1.033) | 1.108 (0.977–1.257) | 1.073 (0.926–1.243) |
<65 years old | 0.992 (0.950–1.036) | 0.991 (0.970–1.012) | 0.948 (0.824–1.091) | 0.928 (0.788–1.093) |
Group | Lag 0 | Lag 3 | Lag 0–5 | Lag 0–7 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Non-accidental mortality | ||||
Full year | 1.086 (1.058–1.115) | 1.043 (1.027–1.060) | 1.342 (1.213–1.486) | 1.331 (1.180–1.500) |
Cold season | 1.132 (1.091–1.175) | 1.071 (1.050–1.093) | 1.258 (1.177–1.345) | 1.611 (1.384–1.876) |
Warm season | 1.063 (1.023–1.106) | 1.033 (1.009–1.056) | 1.248 (1.077–1.445) | 1.242 (1.043–1.480) |
Cardiovascular mortality | ||||
Full year | 1.117 (1.073–1.163) | 1.066 (1.041–1.092) | 1.538 (1.317–1.795) | 1.567 (1.304–1.881) |
Cold season | 1.145 (1.087–1.207) | 1.087 (1.056–1.118) | 1.289 (1.172–1.417) | 1.814 (1.462–2.250) |
Warm season | 1.112 (1.045–1.183) | 1.052 (1.015–1.091) | 1.434 (1.136–1.811) | 1.398 (1.058–1.847) |
Respiratory mortality | ||||
Full year | 1.071 (0.976–1.175) | 1.034 (0.978–1.093) | 1.265 (0.885–1.809) | 1.246 (0.817–1.899) |
Cold season | 1.178 (1.048–1.324) | 1.089 (1.022–1.160) | 1.352 (1.095–1.669) | 1.779 (1.096–2.887) |
Warm season | 1.081 (0.933–1.253) | 1.085 (0.996–1.183) | 1.627 (0.933–2.838) | 1.935 (0.999–3.746) |
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Xiao, Y.; Meng, C.; Huang, S.; Duan, Y.; Liu, G.; Yu, S.; Peng, J.; Cheng, J.; Yin, P. Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 8760. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18168760
Xiao Y, Meng C, Huang S, Duan Y, Liu G, Yu S, Peng J, Cheng J, Yin P. Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(16):8760. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18168760
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiao, Yao, Chengzhen Meng, Suli Huang, Yanran Duan, Gang Liu, Shuyuan Yu, Ji Peng, Jinquan Cheng, and Ping Yin. 2021. "Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 16: 8760. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18168760