Spatial Panel Data Analysis on the Relationship between Provincial Economic Status and Enrolment in the Social Security Scheme amongst Migrant Workers in Thailand, 2015–2018
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design
2.2. Data Sources and Variables
2.3. Data Analysis
2.4. Model Fitness Assessment
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis
3.2. Negative Binomial (NB) Regression
3.3. Spatiotemporal Regression
3.4. Goodness-of-Fit Check
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Average Annual Growth Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total migrants | |||||
Greater BKK | 656,725 | 763,88 | 855,750 | 1,248,091 | 30% |
Central | 36,612 | 39,868 | 40,218 | 49,637 | 12% |
Northeastern | 23,029 | 22,332 | 26,851 | 50,538 | 40% |
Northern | 174,100 | 174,065 | 152,936 | 171,226 | −1% |
Southern | 312,787 | 293,428 | 292,044 | 361,694 | 5% |
Eastern | 211,343 | 154,124 | 164,835 | 260,373 | 8% |
Western | 91,938 | 75,195 | 74,298 | 128,528 | 13% |
Formal-sector migrants | |||||
Greater BKK | 209,940 | 273,150 | 345,485 | 510,671 | 48% |
Central | 19,938 | 23,346 | 26,971 | 39,866 | 33% |
Northeastern | 12,837 | 12,803 | 18,472 | 33,421 | 53% |
Northern | 32,987 | 18,477 | 24,021 | 29,757 | −3% |
Southern | 56,547 | 59,984 | 65,680 | 74,719 | 11% |
Eastern | 76,486 | 75,293 | 96,612 | 153,571 | 34% |
Western | 13,377 | 19,240 | 21,795 | 44,129 | 77% |
Formal-sector migrants with the SSS | |||||
Greater BKK | 279,357 | 277,770 | 291,076 | 622,012 | 41% |
Central | 22,524 | 21,044 | 23,398 | 49,283 | 40% |
Northeastern | 9483 | 8458 | 9503 | 20,619 | 39% |
Northern | 34,122 | 32,747 | 33,508 | 73,478 | 38% |
Southern | 45,356 | 45,759 | 50,113 | 127,896 | 61% |
Eastern | 73,311 | 66,800 | 67,33 | 159,965 | 39% |
Western | 27,963 | 35,428 | 34,804 | 85,256 | 68% |
Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Insured migrants to formal-sector migrants | ||||
Mean (sd) | 3.6 (9.9) | 2.5 (7.2) | 2.0 (7.3) | 2.9 (11.4) |
Median (iqr) | 1.2 (2.2) | 0.9 (1.4) | 0.8 (0.9) | 1.1 (1.1) |
Min/Max | 0.0/114.6 | 0.0/78.7 | 0.0/80.8 | 0.1/133.6 |
Insured migrants to all migrants | ||||
Mean (sd) | 0.8 (2.7) | 0.5 (1.2) | 0.5 (1.0) | 0.6 (0.5) |
Median (iqr) | 0.3 (0.4) | 0.3 (0.3) | 0.3 (0.4) | 0.4 (0.5) |
Min/Max | 0.0/51.8 | 0.0/24.2 | 0.0/16.1 | 0.0/4.5 |
GPP per capita (THB) | ||||
Mean (sd) | 146,575.7 (141,654.5) | 154,341.0 (146,360.6) | 163,044.7 (155,287.0) | 169,506.6 (162,109.2) |
Median (iqr) | 94,772.0 (93,987.0) | 98,141.0 (102,399.0) | 105,345.0 (112,669.0) | 107,505.0 (104,095.0) |
Min/Max | 49,288.0/959,678.0 | 54,957.0/972,955.0 | 55,661.0/1,038,355.0 | 58,370.0/1,067,449.0 |
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (% GPP per capita) | ||||
Mean (sd) | 15.6 (10.6) | 14.9 (10.0) | 14.7 (9.8) | 14.8 (9.8) |
Median (iqr) | 13.3 (14.7) | 12.9 (15.0) | 12.7 (15.0) | 12.9 (14.3) |
Min/Max | 0.5/42.4 | 0.5/38.2 | 0.4/40.6 | 0.4/39.5 |
Manufacturing (% GPP per capita) | ||||
Mean (sd) | 18.8 (24.4) | 19.1 (24.1) | 19.4 (24.3) | 19.1 (24.5) |
Median (iqr) | 8.4 (15.2) | 9.2 (13.9) | 8.9 (14.3) | 8.5 (15.4) |
Min/Max | 0.9/112.0 | 0.8/110.6 | 0.7/104.1 | 0.6/103.0 |
Construction (% GPP per capita) | ||||
Mean (sd) | 3.2 (2.9) | 3.2 (2.9) | 3.1 (2.9) | 3.1 (2.8) |
Median (iqr) | 2.4 (2.4) | 2.4 (2.4) | 2.2 (2.2) | 2.2 (2.1) |
Min/Max | 0.4/19.6 | 0.4/18.8 | 0.3/19.2 | 0.4/18.5 |
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles (% GPP per capita) | ||||
Mean (sd) | 11.5 (20.5) | 12.1 (21.6) | 12.6 (22.1) | 13.0 (23.0) |
Median (iqr) | 7.3 (7.1) | 7.7 (8.2) | 8.1 (8.2) | 8.5 (8.7) |
Min/Max | 1.7/179.9 | 1.8/189.4 | 2.0/193.3 | 1.8/200.7 |
Accommodation and food service activities (% GPP per capita) | ||||
Mean (sd) | 2.7 (8.3) | 2.8 (8.8) | 3.1 (9.8) | 3.4 (10.4) |
Median (iqr) | 0.4 (1.2) | 0.4 (1.4) | 0.5 (1.4) | 0.5 (1.6) |
Min/Max | 0.0/65.6 | 0.0/69.2 | 0.0/78.4 | 0.0/83.0 |
Dependent Variables | Ratio of Insured Migrants to Formal-Sector Migrants | Ratio of Insured Migrants to All Migrants | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRR | 95% CI | p-Value | IRR | 95% CI | p-Value | |
GPP per capita—log Baht | 0.817 | 0.569–1.171 | 0.271 | 0.915 | 0.685–1.223 | 0.550 |
Region (reference = Greater Bangkok and its vicinity) | ||||||
Central | 1.154 | 0.617–2.157 | 0.653 | 2.667 | 1.644–4.328 | <0.001 |
Northeastern | 0.583 | 0.304–1.118 | 0.104 | 1.391 | 0.830–2.332 | 0.210 |
Northern | 2.226 | 1.162–4.265 | 0.016 | 1.872 | 1.118–3.135 | 0.017 |
Southern | 4.888 | 2.540–9.405 | <0.001 | 1.119 | 0.658–1.901 | 0.679 |
Eastern | 0.874 | 0.490–1.560 | 0.649 | 1.651 | 1.046–2.606 | 0.031 |
Western | 3.036 | 1.561–5.906 | 0.001 | 2.189 | 1.291–3.713 | 0.004 |
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing—% GPP per capita | 0.983 | 0.967–0.999 | 0.042 | 0.998 | 0.985–1.011 | 0.773 |
Manufacturing—% GPP per capita | 0.999 | 0.989–1.009 | 0.823 | 1.007 | 0.999–1.015 | 0.088 |
Construction—% GPP per capita | 0.963 | 0.884–1.049 | 0.385 | 0.953 | 0.891–1.020 | 0.165 |
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles—% GPP per capita | 1.025 | 1.010–1.041 | 0.001 | 1.011 | 0.999–1.023 | 0.081 |
Accommodation and food service activities—% GPP per capita | 0.946 | 0.917–0.976 | <0.001 | 0.985 | 0.963–1.008 | 0.209 |
Dependent Variables | Insured Migrants in Formal Sector | Insured Migrants in All Sectors | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRR | IRR 95% CI | p-Value | IRR | IRR 95% CI | p-Value | |
GPP per capita—log Baht | 0.637 | 0.301–1.352 | 0.240 | 1.682 | 1.065–2.656 | 0.026 |
Region (reference = Greater Bangkok and its vicinity) | ||||||
Central | 1.703 | 0.533–5.436 | 0.369 | 3.931 | 1.616–9.566 | 0.003 |
Northeastern | 1.742 | 0.524–5.788 | 0.365 | 7.015 | 1.823–26.985 | 0.005 |
Northern | 2.160 | 0.637–7.327 | 0.217 | 4.601 | 1.448–14.624 | 0.010 |
Southern | 0.222 | 0.015–3.383 | 0.279 | 6.100 | 1.448–25.691 | 0.014 |
Eastern | 2.143 | 0.550–8.353 | 0.272 | 11.313 | 2.692–47.538 | 0.001 |
Western | 2.937 | 1.041–8.284 | 0.042 | 5.598 | 2.448–12.799 | <0.001 |
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing—% GPP per capita | 0.999 | 0.975–1.022 | 0.906 | 0.995 | 0.977–1.012 | 0.543 |
Manufacturing—% GPP per capita | 1.009 | 0.995–1.022 | 0.216 | 1.002 | 0.993–1.010 | 0.713 |
Construction—% GPP per capita | 0.957 | 0.866–1.057 | 0.388 | 0.991 | 0.896–1.097 | 0.867 |
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles—% GPP per capita | 0.997 | 0.975–1.018 | 0.754 | 1.015 | 0.997–1.033 | 0.107 |
Accommodation and food service activities—% GPP per capita | 1.007 | 0.959–1.057 | 0.788 | 0.981 | 0.946–1.018 | 0.316 |
Assessment | Insured Migrants to Formal-Sector Migrants | Insured Migrants in All Migrants | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
NB Regression | Spatiotemporal Regression | NB Regression | Spatiotemporal Regression | |
MAE | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
MSE | 48.3 | 14.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
RMSE | 7.0 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
MAPE | 189.9 | 34.8 | 97.7 | 36.9 |
AIC | 5336.8 | 628.0 | 5146.8 | 609.5 |
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Viriyathorn, S.; Phaiyarom, M.; Rueangsom, P.; Suphanchaimat, R. Spatial Panel Data Analysis on the Relationship between Provincial Economic Status and Enrolment in the Social Security Scheme amongst Migrant Workers in Thailand, 2015–2018. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 181. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010181
Viriyathorn S, Phaiyarom M, Rueangsom P, Suphanchaimat R. Spatial Panel Data Analysis on the Relationship between Provincial Economic Status and Enrolment in the Social Security Scheme amongst Migrant Workers in Thailand, 2015–2018. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(1):181. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010181
Chicago/Turabian StyleViriyathorn, Shaheda, Mathudara Phaiyarom, Putthipanya Rueangsom, and Rapeepong Suphanchaimat. 2022. "Spatial Panel Data Analysis on the Relationship between Provincial Economic Status and Enrolment in the Social Security Scheme amongst Migrant Workers in Thailand, 2015–2018" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 1: 181. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010181