Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Is people’s perceived risk of infection absolutely or comparatively skewed? If so, do levels of optimism vary at each of the three (pre-, early and peak) pandemic stages within and across countries?
- Are there differences in comparative optimism among subpopulations?
- Is comparative optimism negatively associated with protective behaviours?
1.1. Optimism Bias in an Epidemic Context
1.2. Current Epidemiological Context
2. Methods
2.1. Participants and Procedures
2.2. Measures
2.2.1. Risk Perception
2.2.2. Unrealistic Optimism
2.2.3. Health-Protective Behaviours
2.2.4. Sociodemographic and Illness-Related Variables
2.3. Data Analyses
3. Results
3.1. Are Perceived Risks of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Optimistically Biased?
3.2. Are There Differences in Comparative Optimism among Subpopulations?
3.3. Is Unrealistic Optimism Associated with the Adoption of Protective Behaviours?
4. Discussion
4.1. A Paradoxical Trend in Optimism
4.2. Potential Explanations for Paradoxical Findings
4.3. Comparative Optimism and Health-Protective Behaviours
4.4. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Survey Question | Possible Answers | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Risk Perception | ||||||||
What is the risk for yourself of catching this coronavirus in the coming weeks? | 0% | 0–1% | 1–3% | 3–5% | 5–10% | 10–20% | 20–50% | >50% |
In your opinion, out of 100 [name of country] people, how many of them are at risk of catching this coronavirus in the coming weeks? | 0% | 0–1% | 1–3% | 3–5% | 5–10% | 10–20% | 20–50% | >50% |
I think I already had this disease. [Survey 3 only] | Yes | No | ||||||
Protective Behaviours | ||||||||
Which of the following do you do as a result of this coronavirus? | ||||||||
Wash your hands often | Yes | No | ||||||
Wear a face mask | Yes | No | ||||||
Avoid touching your mouth or nose | Yes | No | ||||||
Use a tissue only once when coughing or sneezing | Yes | No | ||||||
Avoid public transportation | Yes | No | ||||||
Use sanitizing hand gel | Yes | No | ||||||
Avoid contact with people who look sick | Yes | No | ||||||
Avoid social events | Yes | No |
Risk Perception | Survey 1 | Survey 2 | Survey 3 | C2 (df), p-Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Italy | Optimism | 47.4% (120) | 59.2% (155) | 74.6% (296) | 104 (4), <10−5 |
Realism | 47.0% (119) | 26.3% (69) | 11.8% (47) | ||
Pessimism | 5.5% (14) | 14.5% (38) | 13.6% (54) | ||
France | Optimism | 55.4% (1880) | 38.7% (1012) | 67.2% (2536) | 927 (4), <10−5 |
Realism | 39.2% (1329) | 42.5% (1110) | 16.2% (611) | ||
Pessimism | 5.4% (184) | 18.8% (492) | 16.6% (627) | ||
Switzerland | Optimism | 40.8% (158) | 39.5% (92) | 61.8% (252) | 96 (4), <10−5 |
Realism | 9.3% (36) | 42.1% (98) | 18.6% (76) | ||
Pessimism | 49.9% (193) | 18.5% (43) | 19.6% (80) | ||
United Kingdom | Optimism | 39.4% (54) | 44.8% (107) | 72.2% (200) | 85 (4), <10−5 |
Realism | 56.2% (77) | 40.6% (97) | 15.5% (43) | ||
Pessimism | 4.4% (6) | 14.6% (35) | 12.3% (34) | ||
All | Optimism | 53.0% (2213) | 40.8% (1366) | 67.2% (2536) | 1135 (4), <10−5 |
Realism | 41.2% (1718) | 41.0% (1374) | 16.6% (627) | ||
Pessimism | 5.8% (241) | 18.2% (608) | 16.2% (611) |
Variable | Optimism %(N) | Realism %(N) | Pessimism %(N) | C2 (df), p-Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sex | Male | 50.9% (3013) | 14.8% (874) | 34.3% (2031) | 95 (2), <10−5 |
Female | 59.6% (3851) | 11.9% (770) | 28.5% (1838) | ||
Age group | 18–35 | 50.5% (1622) | 14.5% (465) | 35.1% (1127) | 63 (4), <10−5 |
35–65 | 56.1% (3481) | 12.6% (779) | 31.4% (1946) | ||
65 and older | 59.6% (1761) | 13.5% (400) | 26.9% (796) | ||
Occupation | Employed | 51.9% (3433) | 13.7% (907) | 34.4% (2280) | 96 (6), <10−5 |
Unemployed | 64.9% (674) | 10.9% (113) | 24.2% (251) | ||
Retired | 58.4% (2349) | 13.1% (526) | 28.6% (1149) | ||
Student | 58.7% (273) | 14.6% (68) | 26.7% (124) | ||
Other | 59% (135) | 12.7% (29) | 28.4% (65) | ||
Education | Some high school | 58.2% (1647) | 15.1% (428) | 26.7% (757) | 102 (4), <10−5 |
High school | 58.7% (2690) | 12.2% (560) | 29.1% (1331) | ||
Some college and higher | 50.9% (2527) | 13.2% (655) | 35.9% (1781) | ||
Composition of household | Living with one or several children | 54.7% (1616) | 14.7% (433) | 30.6% (904) | 6 (4), 0.18 |
Living with other adults but no child | 55.5% (3935) | 12.9% (913) | 31.6% (2239) | ||
Living alone | 55.9% (1288) | 12.9% (298) | 31.2% (718) | ||
Missing data | 74.3% (26) | 2.9% (1) | 22.9% (8) | ||
Health status | No chronic health condition | 55.5% (5228) | 12.4% (1173) | 32.1% (3025) | 30 (2), <10−5 |
Chronic health condition | 55.4% (1635) | 16% (471) | 28.6% (844) | ||
Country | Switzerland | 48.8% (502) | 15.5% (160) | 35.7% (367) | 40 (6), <10−5 |
France | 55.5% (5429) | 13.3% (1303) | 31.2% (3051) | ||
Italy | 62.7% (572) | 11.6% (106) | 25.7% (235) | ||
United Kingdom | 55.3% (361) | 11.5% (75) | 33.2% (217) | ||
Survey | Pre-epidemic stage | 53% (2213) | 5.8% (241) | 41.2% (1718) | 1131 (4), <10−5 |
Early epidemic stage | 40.8% (1366) | 18.2% (608) | 41% (1374) | ||
Epidemic peak stage | 67.6% (3285) | 16.4% (795) | 16% (777) |
Variable | UOR (95% CI) | p-Value | AOR (95% CI) | p-Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sex | Male | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Female | 1.39 [1.27;1.51] | <0.001 | 1.4 [1.29;1.52] | <0.001 | |
Age group | 18–35 | Ref. | Ref. | ||
35–65 | 1.10 [0.94;1.28] | 0.050 | 1.09 [0.93;1.27] | 0.048 | |
>65 | 1.28 [1.04;1.58] | 0.050 | 1.27 [1.04;1.57] | 0.048 | |
Occupation | Employed | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Unemployed | 1.32 [1.11;1.57] | 0.003 | 1.3 [1.1;1.55] | 0.003 | |
Retired | 1.18 [1.01;1.36] | 0.003 | 1.17 [1.02;1.35] | 0.003 | |
Student | 1.28 [0.91;1.82] | 0.003 | 1.29 [0.92;1.83] | 0.003 | |
Education | High school | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Some high school | 1.11 [0.95;1.29] | 0.001 | 1.1 [0.95;1.28] | <0.001 | |
Some college and higher | 0.89 [0.8;0.99] | 0.001 | 0.88 [0.79;0.98 | <0.001 | |
Stage | Pre-epidemic | Ref. | Ref. | ||
Early epidemic | 0.76 [0.69;0.83] | <0.001 | 0.76 [0.69;0.84] | <0.001 | |
Epidemic peak | 2.38 [2.17;2.61] | <0.001 | 2.38 [2.17;2.61] | <0.001 | |
Country | Switzerland | Ref. | Ref. | ||
France | 1.29 [1.11;1.49] | <0.001 | 1.29 [1.11;1.49] | <0.001 | |
Italy | 1.81 [1.47;2.22] | <0.001 | 1.82 [1.48;2.23] | <0.001 | |
United Kingdom | 1.21 [0.97;1.51] | <0.001 | 1.22 [0.98;1.53] | <0.001 | |
Composition of household | Living with other adult(s), without a child | Ref. | |||
Living alone | 0.97 [0.87;1.09] | 0.607 | |||
Living with one or several children | 0.95 [0.85;1.05] | 0.607 | |||
Health status | No chronic health condition | Ref. | |||
Chronic health condition | 0.92 [0.84;1.01] | 0.097 |
Health Behaviour | AOR and 95% CI | p-Value |
---|---|---|
Wash hands often | 0.89 [0.77;1.03] | 0.13 |
Wear face mask | 0.65 [0.54;0.78] | <0.0001 |
Avoid touching one’s mouth and nose | 0.86 [0.75;0.99] | 0.041 |
Use a unique tissue when coughing or sneezing | 0.9 [0.79;1.03] | 0.12 |
Avoid public transportation | 1.1 [0.96;1.26] | 0.16 |
Use sanitising hand gel | 0.75 [0.67;0.86] | <0.0001 |
Avoid contact with people who look sick | 1.15 [1.01;1.31] | 0.036 |
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McColl, K.; Debin, M.; Souty, C.; Guerrisi, C.; Turbelin, C.; Falchi, A.; Bonmarin, I.; Paolotti, D.; Obi, C.; Duggan, J.; et al. Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 436. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010436
McColl K, Debin M, Souty C, Guerrisi C, Turbelin C, Falchi A, Bonmarin I, Paolotti D, Obi C, Duggan J, et al. Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(1):436. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010436
Chicago/Turabian StyleMcColl, Kathleen, Marion Debin, Cecile Souty, Caroline Guerrisi, Clement Turbelin, Alessandra Falchi, Isabelle Bonmarin, Daniela Paolotti, Chinelo Obi, Jim Duggan, and et al. 2022. "Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 1: 436. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010436
APA StyleMcColl, K., Debin, M., Souty, C., Guerrisi, C., Turbelin, C., Falchi, A., Bonmarin, I., Paolotti, D., Obi, C., Duggan, J., Moreno, Y., Wisniak, A., Flahault, A., Blanchon, T., Colizza, V., & Raude, J. (2022). Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(1), 436. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010436