Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review and Research Framework
2.1. Literature Review
2.2. Research Framework
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. The Study Area
3.2. Data Sources
3.3. Methodology
3.3.1. Land-Use Change Scenario Settings
3.3.2. Land-Use Change Simulation Based on Markov–FLUS Model
- (1)
- Land-use quantity demand simulation using the Markov model.
- (2)
- Calculation of suitability probabilities and neighborhood factors.
- (3)
- Adaptive inertia coefficient.
- (4)
- Cost matrix.
- (5)
- Model accuracy test.
3.3.3. Habitat Quality Assessment Based on the InVEST Model
4. Results
4.1. Characteristics of Land-Use Change in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration
4.2. Multi-Scenario Simulation Results
- (1)
- The natural development scenario allowed free conversion between various land types without considering the influence of national land space planning and development policies. In terms of quantity change, the area of cultivated land, woodlands, and grassland under this scenario showed a decreasing trend. Compared with 2020, the area of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland decreased by 1981.95 km2 (3.30%), 444.67 km2 (3.95%), and 456.76 km2 (1.57%), respectively, and the area of waters and unused land decreased slightly by 40.87 km2 (3.41%) and 5.43 km2 (3.71%), respectively. Only construction land showed an expansion trend, increasing significantly by 2934.4 km2 (54.82%). From the change in the land-use spatial pattern, construction land spread throughout the region, from Xi’an as the core to Xianyang City, Weinan City, Baoji City, Tianshui City, and other regions. Construction land in Linfen City and Yuncheng City also expanded rapidly based on the original distribution. In addition, cultivated land and ecological land were occupied and disturbed to varying degrees.
- (2)
- Under the cultivated land protection scenario, the expansion speed of construction land was restrained, and the transfer of cultivated land to other types of land was controlled. In terms of quantity change, the scale of cultivated land showed an increasing trend, increasing by 411.97 km2 (0.68%) from 2020, mainly because the transfer area of cultivated land to woodland, grassland, and construction land decreased. Grassland and unused land area increased slightly by 133.51 km2 (0.45%) and 15.05 km2 (10.27%), respectively. Compared with the natural development scenario, the expansion trend of construction land was lower, increasing by only 132.56 km2 (2.47%); meanwhile, the reduction in woodland area increased, decreasing by 672.32 km2 (5.98%), which showed that the transfer trend of cultivated land to woodland decreased. The waters area decreased slightly by 15.67 km2 (1.31%). From the perspective of the change of land-use spatial pattern, the expansion of construction land was mainly concentrated in Xi’an and its surrounding areas, followed by Linfen and Yuncheng. The cultivated land area mainly increased in the west of the Guanzhong Plain, such as in Pingliang City and Tianshui City, and its growth source was mainly woodland. This change was consistent with the direction of land development and utilization determined in the development plan of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration.
- (3)
- Under the ecological protection scenario, to promote the ecological co-construction and environmental co-governance of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, various types of ecological land were protected, and the rate of transfer of ecological land to other land was controlled. In terms of quantity change, the cultivated land area decreased by 4176.49 km2, which was a larger decrease (6.96%) than in the other scenarios. The area of woodland decreased slightly by 1.91 km2 (0.02%), but the scale of woodland decrease was smaller than in the other scenarios. The unused land area decreased slightly (2.04%). Additionally, grassland and waters showed the most significant growth trends among the three scenarios, with their area increasing by 1839.08 km2 (6.31%) and 476.22 km2 (39.78), respectively. The area of construction land increased significantly, reaching 1870.53 km2, but, compared with the natural development scenario, its expansion rate was restrained, and its growth rate decreased from 54.82% to 34.94%. From the perspective of the change of land-use spatial pattern, construction land mainly expanded in Xi’an and Xianyang, with significant expansions also in Linfen and Yuncheng. The cultivated land reduction areas were mainly in the north and south of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and were mainly transferred to grassland and construction land. In other words, under the premise of ecological protection, it is necessary to meet the needs of various human activities so that various social and economic activities can operate normally.
4.3. Temporal and Spatial Variation of Habitat Quality
- (1)
- Temporal variations in habitat quality: The average habitat quality in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 0.7188, 0.7141, and 0.7121, respectively, and the regional habitat quality decreased by 0.93% over 20 years. During this period, the habitat quality grade showed the characteristics of a high proportion of areas with moderate and excellent habitat quality and a low proportion of areas with poor and good habitat quality, while the area with poor habitat quality gradually increased from 3.54% in 2000 to 5.11% in 2020, mainly due to the shrinkage of areas with moderate and good habitat quality; meanwhile, the area with excellent habitat quality increased slightly (0.95%). In general, the habitat quality of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration was good, and the overall level was high, but the habitat was in decline. Regarding the average habitat quality, the three scenarios were ranked as follows: ecological protection scenario > cultivated land protection scenario > natural development scenario. Under the natural development scenario, from 2020 to 2035, the average habitat quality continued to decline to 0.6921, the area with poor habitat quality increased to 7.87%, and the moderate-grade area decreased from 54.1% to 53.3%. This decline in the overall habitat quality of the region was mainly due to the continuous expansion of construction land to support economic development, encroaching on cultivated land, woodland, and grassland around the city. In 2035, the average habitat quality under the cultivated land protection scenario was 0.7082. Compared with the natural development scenario, habitat quality was improved, the proportion of low-value areas was lower, and the proportion of high-value areas was higher. The poor area was lower at 5.26%, the moderate-grade area was higher at 55.66%, and the excellent area was higher at 37.97%. The average habitat quality under the ecological protection scenario in 2035 was the highest of the three scenarios (0.7109). Although there was a gap in 2020, the poor area accounted for 6.86%, which was lower than the percentage under the natural development scenario, while the proportions of good-grade and excellent-grade areas were 1.55% and 40.23%, respectively, which were higher than in the other two scenarios, indicating that the ecological quality of this scenario was better.
- (2)
- Spatial pattern variations in habitat quality: During the study period, the habitat quality of the study area showed a spatial pattern of poor in the middle, moderate in the east and west, and good in the north and south. Areas with high habitat quality were mainly distributed in the south and north of the study area: the Qinba Mountains in the south, and the Loess Plateau in the north. Overall, the ecological environment was good. Areas with low habitat quality were mainly located in the middle of the urban agglomeration with Xi’an as the core. The economic development of this area was good, various development activities caused great damage to the habitat, and the urban space continued to extend to the surrounding higher habitat areas. From 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality of the study area continued to decline. With the disorderly expansion of urban construction land brought about by economic growth, the moderate-habitat-quality area gradually deteriorated. The habitat quality under the natural development scenario from 2020 to 2035 further decreased (Figure 6), the low-value area in the middle expanded, and the construction land in Linfen and Yuncheng in the northeast expanded. Although the habitat quality under the cultivated land protection scenario was reduced compared with the natural development scenario, the habitat quality was obviously higher. Cultivated land was protected while slowing the transformation of woodland and grassland, besides which, the expansion degree of construction land in the central region was significantly weakened, indicating that a cultivated land protection policy is conducive to slowing the decline of habitat quality. Compared with the previous two scenarios, the ecological protection scenario had the highest habitat quality, which enabled economic development in the central part of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and the protection of north–south habitats. Therefore, this scenario was conducive to economic, social, and ecological sustainability.
5. Discussion
5.1. Effects of Land-Use Change on Habitat Quality in Urban Agglomerations
5.2. Comparison of Land-Use Scenarios for Sustainable Development Goals
5.3. Policy Impact
5.4. Limitations and Potentials
6. Conclusions
- (1)
- Simulating the habitat quality of urban agglomerations based on land-use change is an important method for understanding and evaluating the complex coupling relationship between human activities and natural habitats. The Markov–FLUS model selected in this study showed excellent simulation results and was suitable for simulating land-use changes in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration. The model test showed that the overall accuracy was 0.952, and the kappa coefficient was 0.924, indicating that the model had strong applicability for predicting future land-use change in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and effectively reflected the impact of regional human activities on the state and change in natural habitat;
- (2)
- From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land area of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration decreased by 5.48%, and the construction land area increased by 40.58%. Under the natural development scenario from 2020 to 2035, the growth in construction land area was the most significant, increasing by 54.82%. The cultivated land area only showed an upward trend under the cultivated land protection scenario, with an increase of 411.97 km2, while the increase in construction land area was the lowest at only 2.47%. Under the ecological protection scenario, the cultivated land area decreased by 6.96%, and the grassland and waters area showed a growth trend, increasing by 1839.08 and 476.22 km2, respectively;
- (3)
- From 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration gradually decreased from 0.7188 to 0.7121. The high-value areas of habitat quality were mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains in the south of the Guanzhong Plain and the Loess Plateau in the north, while the low-value areas were mainly located in the middle of the urban agglomeration, with Xi’an as the core. In 2035, the order of average habitat quality under the three scenarios was: ecological protection scenario > cultivated land protection scenario > natural development scenario, showing that the ecological protection scenario was most conducive to building a sustainable geographical pattern in the urban agglomeration area, realizing the effective coordination of urban development, agricultural production, and ecological protection. It can also provide an important basis for the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration area.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
First Class Type | Secondary Type | ||
---|---|---|---|
Number | Name | Number | Name |
1 | Cultivated land | - | - |
- | - | 11 | Paddy field |
- | - | 12 | Dry land |
2 | Woodland | - | - |
- | - | 21 | Forest land |
- | - | 22 | Bush |
- | - | 23 | Open forest land |
- | - | 24 | Other woodland |
3 | Grassland | - | - |
- | - | 31 | High coverage grass |
- | - | 32 | Medium coverage grass |
- | - | 33 | Low coverage grass |
4 | Waters | - | - |
- | - | 41 | Canals |
- | - | 42 | Lake |
- | - | 43 | Reservoir pond |
- | - | 44 | Permanent glacier snow |
- | - | 45 | Tidal flat |
- | - | 46 | Beach |
5 | Construction land | - | - |
- | - | 51 | Urban land |
- | - | 52 | Rural settlement |
- | - | 53 | Other construction land |
6 | Unused land | - | - |
- | - | 61 | Sand |
- | - | 62 | Gobi |
- | - | 63 | Saline-alkali land |
- | - | 64 | Wetlands |
- | - | 65 | Bare earth |
- | - | 66 | Bare rock texture |
- | - | 67 | Other |
Land Types | Cultivated Land | Woodland | Grassland | Waters | Construction Land | Unused Land |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land | 84.85 | 1.34 | 6.80 | 0.93 | 6.00 | 0.08 |
Woodland | 4.67 | 83.57 | 10.61 | 0.20 | 0.79 | 0.17 |
Grassland | 9.95 | 2.05 | 86.05 | 0.70 | 1.01 | 0.24 |
Waters | 8.68 | 0.77 | 5.65 | 81.85 | 1.55 | 1.49 |
Construction land | 16.45 | 0.52 | 1.50 | 0.26 | 81.26 | - |
Unused land | 6.29 | 1.55 | 10.85 | 3.07 | 4.62 | 73.62 |
Appendix B
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Land-Use Type | Construction Land | Unused Land | Waters | Grassland | Cultivated Land | Woodland |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Neighborhood factor parameters | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.01 |
Natural Development Scenario | Cultivated Land Protection Scenario | Ecological Protection Scenario | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a | b | c | d | e | f | a | b | c | d | e | f | a | b | c | d | e | f | |
a 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
b | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
e | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
f | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Threat Source | Maximum Stress Distance (km) | Weight | Spatial Decay Type |
---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land | 3 | 0.7 | Linear decay |
Construction land | 10 | 1 | Exponential decay |
National roads | 2 | 0.8 | Linear decay |
Provincial roads | 2 | 0.8 | Linear decay |
Main railways | 2 | 0.8 | Linear decay |
Land-Use Type | Habitat Suitability | Threat Source | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated Land | Construction Land | National Roads | Provincial Roads | Main Railways | ||
Cultivated land | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Woodland | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Grassland | 1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Waters | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Construction land | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Unused land | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Land Types | Cultivated Land | Woodland | Grassland | Waters | Construction Land | Unused Land | Area Decrease |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cultivated land | 45,189.71 | 437.62 | 1840.31 | 181.06 | 1945.30 | 18.46 | 4422.75 |
Woodland | 183.38 | 22,410.22 | 367.73 | 10.41 | 49.10 | 9.39 | 620.01 |
Grassland | 1063.22 | 434.71 | 27,107.45 | 38.64 | 92.82 | 15.80 | 1645.19 |
Waters | 131.65 | 7.38 | 35.87 | 1043.12 | 29.92 | 3.16 | 207.98 |
Construction land | 316.02 | 6.68 | 17.19 | 6.30 | 4026.26 | 0.32 | 346.51 |
Unused land | 10.65 | 4.91 | 12.96 | 15.55 | 3.78 | 112.55 | 47.85 |
Area increase | 1704.91 | 891.30 | 2274.06 | 251.96 | 2120.92 | 47.13 |
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Ye, H.; Song, Y.; Xue, D. Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 8703. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148703
Ye H, Song Y, Xue D. Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(14):8703. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148703
Chicago/Turabian StyleYe, Hao, Yongyong Song, and Dongqian Xue. 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 14: 8703. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148703