Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Brucellosis in China, 2003–2019
Abstract
:1. Background
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data and Sources
2.2. Statistical Methods
2.2.1. Spatiotemporal Scan Statistic
2.2.2. GeoDetector Method
Factor Detector
Interaction Detector
Risk Detector
3. Results
3.1. Trend Analysis of Brucellosis Epidemiological Data
3.2. Spatiotemporal Pattern of Brucellosis
3.2.1. Spatiotemporal Pattern of Brucellosis in the Outbreak Period
3.2.2. Spatiotemporal Pattern of Brucellosis in the Mild Period
3.2.3. Spatiotemporal Pattern of Brucellosis in the Recurrence Period
3.3. Driving Factors for Spatial Heterogeneity of Brucellosis
3.3.1. Driving Effects of Potential Risk Factors on the Spatial Heterogeneity of Brucellosis
3.3.2. Analysis of Influence of Consumption and Production on Brucellosis Clusters (Areas in Most Likely Cluster in Recurrence Period)
3.3.3. Interactions among Driving Factors
3.3.4. Favorable Conditions for Spread of Brucellosis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Type of Factor | Detection Factor | Measurement Units | Range of Time | Data Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Environment | SO2 | tons (t) | 2003–2019 | Statistical Yearbook of each province in China |
WWD | tons (t) | |||
Meteorology | AAT | Celsius (°C) | 2003–2019 | China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System |
AAP | mm | |||
Socioeconomic | CM | kg | 2003–2019 | Statistical Yearbook of each province in China |
TAH | Yuan | |||
COM | kg | Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook | ||
SOP | heads | Statistical Yearbook of each province in China | ||
COP | heads |
Description | Interaction |
---|---|
q(X1∩X2) < Min(q(X1), q(X2)) | Weakened, Nonlinear |
q(X1∩X2) = q(X1) + q(X2) | Independent |
q(X1∩X2) > Max(q(X1) + q(X2)) | Enhanced, Double factors |
Center * | Radius ** | Areas *** | Number of Provinces | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Outbreak period | Inner Mongolia | 335.33 km | Inner Mongolia, Shanxi | 15 |
Mild period | Xinjiang | 2000.09 km | Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet, Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia | 8 |
Recurrence period | Xinjiang | 2000.09 km | Qinghai, Tibet, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan | 11 |
SO2 | AAT | SOP | CM | TAH | AAP | COM | COP | WWD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003–2019 | 45.38 | 44.6 | 40.76 | 30.46 | 28.12 | 20.72 | 20.30 | 20.11 | 15.3 |
Outbreak period | 39.29 | 35.13 | 40.4 | 27.98 | 24.66 | 20.79 | 19.05 | 21.36 | 12.05 |
Mild period | 34.94 | 30.09 | 32.84 | 30.26 | 29.81 | 25.26 | 18.29 | 22.43 | 12.36 |
Recurrence period | 47.18 | 28.9 | 42.43 | 49.65 | 35.47 | 22.77 | 24.75 | 23.59 | 16.55 |
Areas in Cluster | Consumption | Production | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pigs | Cattle | Sheep | Pigs | Cattle | Sheep | |
Qinghai | 41.12 | 32.46 | 26.42 | 10.82 | 13.76 | 75.42 |
Tibet | 23.32 | 58.00 | 18.68 | 3.15 | 28.47 | 68.38 |
Gansu | 77.92 | 8.11 | 13.97 | 28.66 | 8.70 | 62.63 |
Ningxia | 43.51 | 27.84 | 28.65 | 14.42 | 9.72 | 75.86 |
Inner Mongolia | 57.58 | 14.05 | 28.36 | 11.09 | 4.83 | 84.08 |
Sichuan | 94.27 | 4.49 | 1.24 | 74.35 | 3.50 | 22.15 |
SO2 | WWD | AAT | AAP | CM | TAH | COM | SOP | COP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
/Million t | /Million t | /°C | /mm | /kg | /Billion Yuan | /kg | /Million Heads | /Million Heads | |
2003–2019 | 0.66–0.70 | 2444.04–3245.28 | 9.54–11.68 | 421.54–630.76 | 16.81–20.58 | 872.93–1256.43 | 12.99–17.26 | 63.28–72.40 | 2.93–3.51 |
Outbreak period | 0.70–0.73 | 2245.28–3046.52 | 9.59–11.77 | 478.94–668.97 | 15.58–23.12 | 770.90–1147.42 | 11.69–14.91 | 64.21–78.96 | 3.21–3.57 |
Mild period | 0.70–0.73 | 1065.10–207,136.33 | 9.59–11.77 | 417.53–623.77 | 16.89–21.54 | 1828.70–2548.30 | 13.37–16.59 | 58.46–70.09 | 2.09–2.61 |
Recurrence period | 0.73–0.78 | 2071.36–3077.63 | 7.41–9.589 | 440.60–674.70 | 15.47–20.42 | 757.20–1239.60 | 17.52–20.79 | 64.01–73.71 | 2.91–3.32 |
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Xu, L.; Deng, Y. Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Brucellosis in China, 2003–2019. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 10082. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191610082
Xu L, Deng Y. Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Brucellosis in China, 2003–2019. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(16):10082. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191610082
Chicago/Turabian StyleXu, Li, and Yijia Deng. 2022. "Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Brucellosis in China, 2003–2019" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 16: 10082. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191610082