Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Participants
2.2. Measures
Weekly/Daily Alcohol Use
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Prevalences of Weekly/Daily Alcohol Consumption from 1986 to 2018
3.2. 2021/22. Prediction of Drinking Behavior
3.3. Model Assessment. Comparison between 2017/18 Estimates and Observed Prevalences
4. Discussion
4.1. Clusters and Trends of Frequent Alcohol Consumption
4.2. Comparison between 2017/18 Estimates and Observed Prevalences
4.3. 2021/22. Forecasting of Frequent Alcohol Use
4.4. Strengths and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Region | 1986 | 1990 | 1994 | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2014 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL | 1667 | ||||||||
AM | 156 | 105 | 204 | ||||||
AT | 974 | 1622 | 1346 | 1223 | 1476 | 1785 | 1236 | 1254 | |
AZ | 1274 | ||||||||
BE-VLG | 1314 | 1512 | 1967 | 1477 | 1199 | 1680 | 1366 | ||
BE-WAL | 1099 | 795 | 1489 | 599 | 1349 | 1380 | 1288 | 1891 | 1596 |
BG | 1658 | 1619 | 1453 | ||||||
CA | 533 | 486 | 2362 | 1169 | 2245 | 5166 | 4780 | ||
CH | 1638 | 1789 | 1452 | 1455 | 2157 | 2156 | 2327 | ||
CZ | 342 | 1172 | 1647 | 540 | 1513 | 1737 | 3683 | ||
DE | 223 | 1535 | 1660 | 2492 | 1599 | 2043 | |||
DK | 482 | 1499 | 1349 | 1448 | 1189 | 1240 | 737 | ||
EE | 1082 | 535 | 1267 | 692 | 853 | 735 | 1080 | ||
ES | 1458 | 1739 | 1972 | 3645 | |||||
FI | 1081 | 894 | 1132 | 1444 | 1716 | 1650 | 2077 | 1915 | |
FR | 1245 | 1157 | 2538 | 2168 | 1390 | 1366 | |||
GB-ENG | 437 | 1718 | 1430 | 1059 | 1535 | ||||
GB-NI | 1240 | 952 | |||||||
GB-SCT | 1493 | 1138 | 1326 | 1706 | 1136 | 2053 | 2500 | 1765 | 1364 |
GB-WLS | 1975 | 1881 | 1230 | 1394 | 1144 | 1154 | 1583 | 1407 | 4117 |
GE | 170 | ||||||||
GL | 28 | 409 | 223 | 383 | 359 | 21 | |||
GR | 1312 | 1301 | 1363 | 1615 | 1296 | ||||
HR | 1428 | 1611 | 2406 | 1845 | 1967 | ||||
HU | 1185 | 2091 | 1735 | 732 | 1299 | 1173 | 1716 | 1084 | |
IE | 1343 | 832 | 1582 | 1567 | 1411 | 1008 | |||
IL | 1309 | 1360 | 1473 | 1721 | 1315 | 1566 | 2670 | ||
IS | 1837 | 3593 | 3235 | ||||||
IT | 1211 | 1321 | 1520 | 1251 | 1278 | ||||
KZ | 1483 | ||||||||
LT | 1575 | 1257 | 1885 | 411 | 367 | 167 | 1134 | ||
LU | 1415 | 1315 | 1030 | ||||||
LV | 132 | 1176 | 1083 | 1304 | 1329 | 1693 | 1313 | ||
MD | 1545 | ||||||||
MK | 1368 | 1880 | 1492 | 1412 | |||||
MT | 627 | 154 | 185 | 156 | |||||
NL | 1239 | 468 | 1423 | 1319 | |||||
NO | 123 | 133 | 1551 | 1551 | 840 | 1212 | 869 | 620 | |
PL | 96 | 237 | 1609 | 2110 | 1864 | 1395 | 1466 | ||
PT | 1186 | 782 | 1332 | 1423 | 1329 | ||||
RO | 1290 | 1924 | 1405 | ||||||
RS | 1576 | ||||||||
RU | 1354 | 1322 | 2558 | 1669 | 1757 | 1388 | 1471 | ||
SE | 133 | 1071 | 170 | 949 | 1195 | 1407 | 1960 | 2681 | 1494 |
SI | 1046 | 963 | 991 | 1034 | 1359 | ||||
SK | 199 | 804 | 875 | 1888 | 1797 | 1192 | |||
TR | 135 | ||||||||
UA | 1585 | 938 | 1824 | 1628 | |||||
US | 1753 | 1565 | 962 | 1833 |
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Country 1 | 1985/86 | 1989/90 | 1993/94 | 1997/98 | 2001/02 | 2005/06 | 2009/10 | 2013/14 | 2017/18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM | 28.73 | 18.97 | 22.89 | ||||||
AT | 37.83 | 47.3 | 39.57 | 28.82 | 41.25 | 37.3 | 22.85 | 23.86 | |
BE-VLG | 44.82 | 38.93 | 37.87 | 41.67 | 31.63 | 17.60 | 18.46 | ||
BE-WAL | 54.01 | 40.95 | 45.87 | 45.95 | 30.91 | 37.85 | 26.4 | 17.02 | 16.17 |
BG | 45.42 | 32.43 | 49.70 | ||||||
CA | 34.49 | 24.98 | 22.37 | 27.2 | 19.12 | 16.14 | 12.78 | ||
CH | 22.24 | 19.64 | 33.42 | 26.98 | 26.51 | 11.36 | 11.17 | ||
CZ | 38.73 | 33.74 | 40.58 | 38.7 | 44.01 | 20.38 | 18.93 | ||
DE | 29.45 | 29.78 | 37.05 | 25.1 | 25.24 | 17.93 | |||
DK | 41.82 | 48.13 | 50.39 | 38.61 | 26.75 | 20.39 | 25.27 | ||
EE | 14.71 | 23.48 | 28.11 | 51.01 | 29.04 | 16.95 | 11.34 | ||
ES | 25.78 | 24.23 | 22.97 | 10.79 | |||||
FI | 10.59 | 12.28 | 17.13 | 12.43 | 12.68 | 11.54 | 7.06 | 7.68 | |
FR | 40.1 | 33.58 | 19.95 | 24.44 | 28.25 | 18.25 | |||
GB-ENG | 18.58 | 51.03 | 39.14 | 24.79 | 10.47 | ||||
GB-SCT | 38.43 | 36.28 | 41.94 | 37.45 | 40.91 | 38.26 | 26.27 | 14.14 | 13.22 |
GB-WLS | 51.57 | 51.92 | 52.94 | 54.48 | 47.98 | 45.9 | 31.48 | 13.45 | 13.95 |
GL | 11.38 | 18.89 | 22.68 | 11.23 | 6.47 | 11.26 | |||
GR | 52.09 | 39.94 | 42.74 | 43.1 | 28.59 | ||||
HR | 34.31 | 44.63 | 43.27 | 34.26 | 29.22 | ||||
HU | 24.48 | 25.06 | 23.93 | 33.23 | 42.31 | 34.68 | 31.01 | 29.06 | |
IE | 29.26 | 14.97 | 17.96 | 13.6 | 5.11 | 6.52 | |||
IL | 24.23 | 24.53 | 23.96 | 21.61 | 28.74 | 29.22 | 17.70 | ||
IS | 15.08 | 7.87 | 3.36 | ||||||
IT | 46.83 | 47.68 | 39.33 | 31.55 | 30.31 | ||||
LT | 15.67 | 18.12 | 27.63 | 25.47 | 24.41 | 13.65 | 9.01 | ||
LU | 29.23 | 23.44 | 12.58 | ||||||
LV | 18.64 | 29.41 | 19.78 | 31.03 | 26.68 | 9.46 | 6.77 | ||
MK | 21.56 | 28.47 | 23.35 | 18.78 | |||||
MT | 55.97 | 50 | 31.85 | 26.13 | |||||
NL | 44.53 | 42.29 | 27.03 | 18.01 | |||||
NO | 8.47 | 9.95 | 17.05 | 16.71 | 21.41 | 10.99 | 4.06 | 6.85 | |
PL | 10.13 | 22.51 | 20.68 | 19.19 | 18.63 | 17.31 | 12.77 | ||
PT | 31.02 | 19.3 | 20.85 | 12.4 | 11.27 | ||||
RO | 33.07 | 34.58 | 28.57 | ||||||
RU | 21.39 | 27.61 | 31.83 | 42.4 | 12.85 | 12.16 | 6.03 | ||
SE | 14.34 | 27.55 | 21.76 | 21.29 | 18.73 | 15.35 | 10.63 | 5.08 | 7.53 |
SI | 33.02 | 58.58 | 54.43 | 25.14 | 20.11 | ||||
SK | 33.78 | 33.33 | 41.97 | 28.19 | 19.73 | 20.35 | |||
UA | 43 | 59.24 | 45.44 | 17.45 |
Country 1 | 1985/86 | 1989/90 | 1993/94 | 1997/98 | 2001/02 | 2005/06 | 2009/10 | 2013/14 | 2017/18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM | 11.61 | 6.68 | 5.48 | ||||||
AT | 18.64 | 29.09 | 23.96 | 22.59 | 34.94 | 28.29 | 11.25 | 18.42 | |
BE-VLG | 25.86 | 22.31 | 24.44 | 24.12 | 15.79 | 10.74 | 7.94 | ||
BE-WAL | 36.73 | 26.93 | 28.77 | 28.24 | 20.11 | 20.78 | 19.1 | 9.58 | 8.45 |
BG | 33.37 | 17.65 | 35.09 | ||||||
CA | 25.16 | 19.39 | 17.29 | 18.84 | 15.62 | 13.77 | 8.20 | ||
CH | 9.86 | 9.18 | 14.65 | 15.93 | 13.08 | 6.32 | 3.81 | ||
CZ | 18.61 | 19.93 | 29.61 | 26.59 | 33.51 | 13.89 | 11.86 | ||
DE | 20.35 | 22.72 | 24.27 | 15.21 | 13.83 | 7.42 | |||
DK | 35.01 | 38.56 | 39.91 | 28.3 | 17.72 | 12.52 | 17.81 | ||
EE | 5.18 | 11.48 | 12.04 | 41.16 | 24.56 | 11.89 | 6.31 | ||
ES | 24.52 | 18.36 | 22.78 | 8.21 | |||||
FI | 9.76 | 6.95 | 9.58 | 8.56 | 8.45 | 7.17 | 6.81 | 3.33 | |
FR | 17.82 | 16.01 | 10.47 | 13.31 | 15.38 | 8.95 | |||
GB-ENG | 27.75 | 43.72 | 37.82 | 17.6 | 9.20 | ||||
GB-SCT | 27.34 | 29.17 | 33.43 | 33.81 | 41.49 | 36.54 | 24.75 | 11.90 | 12.32 |
GB-WLS | 40.95 | 41.59 | 46.17 | 36.9 | 31.45 | 42.61 | 28.12 | 10.97 | 12.42 |
GL | 10.61 | 15.1 | 7.14 | 13.27 | 8.47 | 2.58 | |||
GR | 31 | 21.64 | 25.79 | 34.47 | 17.61 | ||||
HR | 20.79 | 29.75 | 26.68 | 13.86 | 14.31 | ||||
HU | 9.73 | 5.62 | 14.57 | 11.63 | 20.75 | 23.25 | 19.76 | 18.23 | |
IE | 12.37 | 11.78 | 18.78 | 9.7 | 3.51 | 5.03 | |||
IL | 11.42 | 8.56 | 11.49 | 9.77 | 9.63 | 9.76 | 6.60 | ||
IS | 10.93 | 4.62 | 2.09 | ||||||
IT | 29.48 | 30.58 | 26.36 | 17.02 | 17.61 | ||||
LT | 6.76 | 10.5 | 13.01 | 20.04 | 16.81 | 6.01 | 7.12 | ||
LU | 17.75 | 14.51 | 7.78 | ||||||
LV | 5.56 | 12.57 | 12.62 | 25.07 | 21.08 | 4.02 | 5.43 | ||
MK | 7.28 | 14.76 | 12.64 | 9.09 | |||||
MT | 42.51 | 39.02 | 26.48 | 18.70 | |||||
NL | 24.47 | 28.51 | 17.21 | 12.89 | |||||
NO | 8.03 | 7.08 | 13.46 | 17.19 | 21.19 | 9.57 | 3.56 | 2.74 | |
PL | 2.95 | 9.56 | 8.09 | 7.83 | 12.87 | 10.71 | 9.27 | ||
PT | 8.97 | 13.45 | 9.57 | 6.42 | 4.24 | ||||
RO | 10.7 | 8.37 | 9.38 | ||||||
RU | 10.51 | 24.51 | 18.43 | 36.12 | 9.29 | 5.64 | 2.07 | ||
SE | 11.61 | 18.16 | 12.4 | 13.53 | 11.89 | 11.13 | 7.58 | 3.08 | 5.15 |
SI | 19.92 | 33.61 | 41.78 | 18.27 | 14.17 | ||||
SK | 10.83 | 17.13 | 27.29 | 15.94 | 11.19 | 10.39 | |||
UA | 20.49 | 46.47 | 29.93 | 10.16 |
Country | Boys | Girls |
---|---|---|
AM | 20.17 | 10.66 |
AT | 21.19 | 15.95 |
BE-VLG | 20.00 | 13.91 |
BE-WAL | 19.30 | 15.52 |
BG | 42.41 | 16.25 |
CA | 16.25 | 10.76 |
CH | 17.21 | 10.62 |
CZ | 21.21 | 15.83 |
DE | 17.95 | 10.77 |
DK | 20.81 | 15.89 |
EE | 18.23 | 10.74 |
ES | 16.34 | 12.82 |
FI | 9.57 | 10.61 |
FR | 17.79 | 10.62 |
GB-ENG | 18.10 | 15.86 |
GB-SCT | 19.52 | 15.89 |
GB-WLS | 18.50 | 15.84 |
GL | 9.64 | 10.61 |
GR | 24.99 | 16.03 |
HR | 32.24 | 15.83 |
HU | 27.02 | 10.66 |
IE | 9.95 | 10.62 |
IL | 18.52 | 10.62 |
IS | 9.43 | 10.60 |
IT | 28.85 | 16.04 |
LT | 15.52 | 10.62 |
LU | 16.99 | 10.69 |
LV | 16.45 | 10.62 |
MK | 17.42 | 10.62 |
MT | 26.80 | 15.93 |
NL | 19.62 | 14.50 |
NO | 9.67 | 10.62 |
PL | 10.68 | 10.62 |
PT | 12.27 | 10.62 |
RO | 23.04 | 10.62 |
RU | 16.99 | 10.62 |
SE | 9.86 | 10.62 |
SI | 26.45 | 16.10 |
SK | 20.58 | 10.79 |
UA | 24.15 | 15.96 |
Country | Observed | Predicted | AE | Cluster |
---|---|---|---|---|
CH | 11.17 | 12.61 | 1.44 | 1 |
EE | 11.34 | 13.56 | 2.22 | 1 |
IL | 17.70 | 13.73 | 3.97 | 1 |
LT | 9.01 | 10.71 | 1.71 | 1 |
LV | 6.77 | 11.86 | 5.09 | 1 |
RU | 6.03 | 12.52 | 6.49 | 1 |
AM | 22.89 | 17.05 | 5.84 | 2 |
AT | 23.86 | 18.99 | 4.87 | 2 |
BE-VLG | 18.46 | 18.06 | 0.40 | 2 |
BE-WAL | 16.17 | 17.57 | 1.40 | 2 |
CZ | 18.93 | 18.97 | 0.04 | 2 |
DK | 25.27 | 18.86 | 6.41 | 2 |
GB-SCT | 13.22 | 17.59 | 4.37 | 2 |
GB-WLS | 13.95 | 17.60 | 3.65 | 2 |
SK | 20.35 | 17.79 | 2.56 | 2 |
IE | 6.52 | 4.81 | 1.71 | 3 |
NO | 6.85 | 4.40 | 2.45 | 3 |
SE | 7.53 | 4.71 | 2.82 | 3 |
HR | 29.22 | 27.54 | 1.68 | 4 |
IT | 30.31 | 25.46 | 4.85 | 4 |
MT | 26.13 | 24.08 | 2.05 | 4 |
SI | 20.11 | 23.73 | 3.62 | 4 |
BG | 49.70 | 34.81 | 14.89 | 5 |
Overall AE | Mean | Median | SD | Min–Max |
3.68 | 2.82 | 3.05 | 0.04–14.89 |
Country | Observed | Predicted | AE | Cluster |
---|---|---|---|---|
AM | 5.48 | 5.80 | 0.32 | 1 |
CH | 3.81 | 5.67 | 1.86 | 1 |
EE | 6.31 | 5.88 | 0.43 | 1 |
IE | 5.03 | 5.68 | 0.65 | 1 |
IL | 6.60 | 5.67 | 0.92 | 1 |
LT | 7.12 | 5.68 | 1.44 | 1 |
LV | 5.43 | 5.68 | 0.25 | 1 |
NO | 2.74 | 5.68 | 2.93 | 1 |
RU | 2.07 | 5.89 | 3.83 | 1 |
SE | 5.15 | 5.67 | 0.53 | 1 |
SK | 10.39 | 5.99 | 4.40 | 1 |
AT | 18.42 | 13.39 | 5.03 | 2 |
BE-VLG | 7.94 | 10.69 | 2.75 | 2 |
BE-WAL | 8.45 | 12.95 | 4.51 | 2 |
BG | 35.09 | 13.83 | 21.26 | 2 |
CZ | 11.86 | 13.23 | 1.37 | 2 |
DK | 17.81 | 13.63 | 4.17 | 2 |
GB-SCT | 12.32 | 13.62 | 1.30 | 2 |
GB-WLS | 12.42 | 13.65 | 1.23 | 2 |
HR | 14.31 | 13.23 | 1.08 | 2 |
IT | 17.61 | 13.64 | 3.97 | 2 |
MT | 18.70 | 13.69 | 5.01 | 2 |
SI | 14.17 | 13.70 | 0.47 | 2 |
Overall AE | Mean | Median | SD | Min–Max |
3.03 | 1.44 | 4.31 | 0.25–21.26 |
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Charrier, L.; Bersia, M.; Vieno, A.; Comoretto, R.I.; Štelemėkas, M.; Nardone, P.; Baška, T.; Dalmasso, P.; Berchialla, P. Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 2737. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052737
Charrier L, Bersia M, Vieno A, Comoretto RI, Štelemėkas M, Nardone P, Baška T, Dalmasso P, Berchialla P. Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(5):2737. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052737
Chicago/Turabian StyleCharrier, Lorena, Michela Bersia, Alessio Vieno, Rosanna Irene Comoretto, Mindaugas Štelemėkas, Paola Nardone, Tibor Baška, Paola Dalmasso, and Paola Berchialla. 2022. "Forecasting Frequent Alcohol Use among Adolescents in HBSC Countries: A Bayesian Framework for Making Predictions" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 5: 2737. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052737