Susceptibility Analysis of Geohazards in the Longmen Mountain Region after the Wenchuan Earthquake
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.2.1. Inventory of Geohazards and Nonhazards
2.2.2. Impact Factor of Geohazards
2.3. Method
2.3.1. Random Forest (RF)
2.3.2. Partial Dependence Analysis
2.3.3. Evaluation of Model Accuracy
3. Results
3.1. Model Accuracy Verification
3.2. Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Geohazard Susceptibility
3.3. Factor Importance and Partial Dependence
4. Discussion
4.1. Verification of Geohazard Susceptibility
4.2. Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Geohazard Susceptibility
4.3. Cause Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Variation of Geohazard Susceptibility
4.3.1. Topographic Factors
4.3.2. Geological Factors
4.3.3. Land Cover Factors
4.3.4. Meteorological and Hydrological Factors
4.3.5. Anthropic Factors
4.4. Implications and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Divided Data of Geohazard and Non-Hazard
Appendix B. Supplementary Data
References
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Period | Year | Geohazard | Nonhazard | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Training | Testing | Training | Testing | ||
I | 2008 | 2213 | 949 | 2215 | 949 |
II | 2009–2012 | 1004 | 430 | 1008 | 433 |
III | 2013 | 2120 | 909 | 2120 | 909 |
IV | 2014–2017 | 915 | 392 | 916 | 392 |
Type | Data Name | Data Sources | Spatial Resolution |
---|---|---|---|
Topographic factor | Elevation | ASF Data Search (https://search.asf.alaska.edu/) (Accessed on 20 May 2021) | |
Slope | ASF Data Search (https://search.asf.alaska.edu/) (Accessed on 20 May 2021) | ||
Slope position | Geospatial Data Cloud (https://www.gscloud.cn/) (Accessed on 20 May 2021) | ||
Aspect | ASF Data Search (https://search.asf.alaska.edu/) (Accessed on 20 May 2021) | ||
Geological factor | Engineering rock group | China Geological Survey (https://www.cgs.gov.cn/) (Accessed on 22 May 2021) | 1:500,000 |
Fault | China Geological Survey (https://www.cgs.gov.cn/) (Accessed on 22 May 2021) | 1:500,000 | |
Wenchuan earthquake intensity | China Earthquake Administration (https://www.cea.gov.cn/) (Accessed on 23 May 2021) | Vector Data | |
Peak ground acceleration | China Earthquake Administration (https://www.cea.gov.cn/) (Accessed on 23 May 2021) | Vector Data | |
Land cover factor | NDVI | NASA (https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/) (Accessed on 24 May 2021) | |
Land use | ESA (https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/) (Accessed on 25 May 2021); GLOBELAND30 (https://www.globallandcover.com/) (Accessed on 25 May 2021) | ||
Meteorological and hydrological factor | Precipitation | Resource and Environment Science and Data Center (https://www.resdc.cn/) (Accessed on 25 May 2021) | |
River network | NASA (https://www.nasa.gov/) (Accessed on 28 May 2021) | Vector Data | |
Anthropic factor | POI | Gaode Open Platform (https://lbs.amap.com/) (Accessed on 1 Jul 2021) | Vector Data |
Road | National Catalogue Service for Geographic Information (https://www.webmap.cn/) (Accessed on 3 Jul 2021); NAVIINFO (https://www.navinfo.com/) (Accessed on 5 Jul 2021) | Vector Data |
Metric | Equation | Definition |
---|---|---|
ACC | The proportion of geohazards and nonhazards points which are correctly classified | |
Precision | The fraction of relevant instances in the retrieved instances | |
SST | The percentage of geohazards points that are correctly classified | |
SPF | The percentage of nonhazards points that are correctly classified | |
Recall | The proportion of positive samples predicted to be correct |
Period | Year | Prediction | Reference | Summation | Kappa | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Geohazard | Non-Hazard | |||||
I | 2008 | Geohazard | 3084 | 75 | Precision: 0.976 | 0.952 |
Nonhazard | 78 | 3089 | Precision: 0.975 | |||
Summation | Recall: 0.975 | Recall: 0.976 | Accuracy: 0.976 | |||
II | 2009–2012 | Geohazard | 1402 | 51 | Precision: 0.965 | 0.942 |
Nonhazard | 32 | 1390 | Precision: 0.977 | |||
Summation | Recall: 0.978 | Recall: 0.965 | Accuracy: 0.971 | |||
III | 2013 | Geohazard | 2954 | 62 | Precision: 0.979 | 0.955 |
Nonhazard | 75 | 2967 | Precision: 0.975 | |||
Summation | Recall: 0.975 | Recall: 0.980 | Accuracy: 0.977 | |||
IV | 2014–2017 | Geohazard | 1276 | 54 | Precision: 0.959 | 0.935 |
Nonhazard | 31 | 1254 | Precision: 0.976 | |||
Summation | Recall: 0.976 | Recall: 0.959 | Accuracy: 0.968 |
Period (Year) | I (2008) | II (2009–2012) | III (2013) | IV (2014–2017) |
---|---|---|---|---|
I (2008) | 1.000 | 0.833 | 0.824 | 0.798 |
II (2009–2012) | 0.833 | 1.000 | 0.848 | 0.881 |
III (2013) | 0.824 | 0.848 | 1.000 | 0.826 |
IV (2014–2017) | 0.798 | 0.881 | 0.826 | 1.000 |
Geohazard Probability | Susceptibility Level | Grid Number | Area Proportion (%) | Geohazard Number | Geohazard Proportion (%) | Density Proportion (Pcs/km2) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<0.55 | Very low | 1,733,079 | 42.37 | 13 | 0.14 | 0.001 |
0.55–1.90 | Low | 910,353 | 22.25 | 225 | 2.52 | 0.031 |
1.90–2.75 | Medium | 649,682 | 15.88 | 1172 | 13.12 | 0.223 |
2.75–3.30 | High | 464,832 | 11.36 | 2515 | 28.16 | 0.668 |
>3.30 | Very high | 332,727 | 8.14 | 5007 | 56.06 | 1.858 |
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Li, S.; Ni, Z.; Zhao, Y.; Hu, W.; Long, Z.; Ma, H.; Zhou, G.; Luo, Y.; Geng, C. Susceptibility Analysis of Geohazards in the Longmen Mountain Region after the Wenchuan Earthquake. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 3229. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063229
Li S, Ni Z, Zhao Y, Hu W, Long Z, Ma H, Zhou G, Luo Y, Geng C. Susceptibility Analysis of Geohazards in the Longmen Mountain Region after the Wenchuan Earthquake. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(6):3229. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063229
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Shuai, Zhongyun Ni, Yinbing Zhao, Wei Hu, Zhenrui Long, Haiyu Ma, Guoli Zhou, Yuhao Luo, and Chuntao Geng. 2022. "Susceptibility Analysis of Geohazards in the Longmen Mountain Region after the Wenchuan Earthquake" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 6: 3229. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063229