Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. The Impact of Policies on Electric Vehicle Diffusion
2.2. Consumer Preference
2.3. The Network-Based Evolutionary Game
2.4. The Gaps
3. Methods
3.1. Problem Description
3.2. Modeling Assumptions
- There are manufacturers in the automobile market with two pure strategies that are faced with strategic decisions of producing EVs or ICEVs. The initial EV manufacturer proportion is , while the ICEV manufacturer proportion is . All the manufacturers are limited rationality and make decisions independently and synchronously.
- The different strategic decisions adopted by manufacturers will have different carbon-reduction rates, , and carbon abatement costs, . We assume a quadratic relationship between carbon-reduction rate and carbon-abatement cost, i.e., where is the cost coefficient of abatement, and a similar setting is widely used by scholars.
- The manufacturer agents are embedded in a complex social network, with nodes representing manufacturers and edges representing linkages between manufacturers. Decision and payoff information is shared among connected nodes in the manufacturer’s network.
- Manufacturers of the same strategic decision produce homogeneous automotive products. The market demand for EVs and ICEVs is supplied evenly by manufacturers producing EVs and ICEVs, respectively.
- Automotive products have a lifespan, , and consumers need to buy a new EV or ICEVs after this period of ownership. This process is influenced by the maturity of EV technology.
- The size of consumers in the market is . Consumers are divided into two categories: those who choose EVs or those who choose ICEVs, and the initial ratios are denoted by and 1 − , respectively. Each consumer does not own more than one vehicle at each moment.
3.3. The Network-Based Evolutionary Game Model
3.4. The Dynamic Consumer Preference
4. Simulation and Discussion
4.1. Parameter Initialization Setting
4.2. The Impact of Supply-Side Policies on the Diffusion of EVs
4.2.1. The Impact of Carbon Tax Policy on the Diffusion of EVs
4.2.2. The Impact of Production Subsidy Policy on the Diffusion of EVs
4.3. The Impact of Demand-Side Policies on the Diffusion of EVs
4.3.1. The Impact of Purchase Subsidy Policy on the Diffusion of EVs
4.3.2. The Impact of Information Policy on the Diffusion of EVs
5. Conclusions
- The effect of EV promotion policies is sensitive to the size of the network. The increase in the number of manufacturers in the network reduces the magnitude of periodic fluctuations in EV diffusion rates.
- Both carbon tax policy and production subsidy policy acting on manufacturers can steadily contribute to maintaining a higher level of EV diffusion in equilibrium. However, unlike the effectiveness of production subsidies in the whole diffusion process, carbon tax policy has some inhibiting effects in the phase of rapid diffusion.
- Demand-side purchase subsidy policy is critical to EV diffusion. Especially in the initial stage of diffusion, implementing the purchase subsidy policy to create market demand is a more appropriate promotion policy. Attention should also be paid to the greater uncertainty of purchase subsidy policies due to the complexity of the economic system. The government’s promotion policy package needs to be adapted and changed according to the expected diffusion targets and the current diffusion stage.
- The impact of information policy on EV diffusion is pronounced, but its policy effects are longer-term and time-lagged. A long-enough horizon of implementation is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the information policy.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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EV | ICEV | ||
Auto manufacturer i | EV | ||
ICEV |
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Fan, R.; Chen, R. Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19095290
Fan R, Chen R. Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(9):5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19095290
Chicago/Turabian StyleFan, Ruguo, and Rongkai Chen. 2022. "Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 9: 5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19095290