Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Mathematical Model
2.1. Symmetry Analysis
2.1.1. Virus Transmission
2.1.2. Social Interventions
2.2. SHR Model
2.3. Analytic Solution
2.4. Parameter Determination
3. Results
3.1. Quantitative Comparison of Social Intervention Degrees
3.2. Two Evolutionary Patterns of Healing Degree in 23 Areas
3.3. Beijing’s Successful Experiences in Two Waves
3.4. Simulation of the Impact of Dynamic Back-to-Zero Policy
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Order Parameters | Model Parameters | Hubei | Italy | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Separating degree () | Initial infection rate | 0.48 ± 0.01 | 0.48 ± 0.02 | |
Growth rate of separating degree | 0.18 ± 0.02 | 0.10 ± 0.02 | ||
Saturation value of separating degree | 1.00 ± 0.00 | 0.98 ± 0.01 | ||
Time up to midpoint of | 17.8 ± 0.4 | 17.0 ± 1.0 | ||
Healing degree () | Growth rate of healing degree | 0.08 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | |
Saturation value of healing degree | 0.15 ± 0.01 | 0.09 ± 0.04 | ||
Time up to midpoint of | 50 ± 2 | 96 ± 20 | ||
Rescuing degree () | Initial death rate | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | |
Growth rate of rescuing degree | 0.16 ± 0.06 | 0.09 ± 0.03 | ||
Saturation value of rescuing degree | 0.95 ± 0.02 | 0.80 ± 0.10 | ||
Time up to midpoint of | 9 ± 5 | 32 ± 18 |
Infected | Duration | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.27 ± 0.09 | 6.5 ± 2.7 | 0.12 ± 0.05 | 43.4 ± 18.9 | 528 ± 395 | 27 ± 5 |
Wave | Infected | Duration | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
First | 0.15 | 53% | 0.04 | 395 | 30 |
Second | 0.35 | 21% | 0.34 | 335 | 25 |
Infected | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.33 ± 0.01 | 56.2% ± 0.1% | 96.5% ± 0.1% | 0.071 ± 0.005 | 1.8% ± 0.1% | 1631 ± 166 |
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Zhang, L.; She, G.-H.; She, Y.-R.; Li, R.; She, Z.-S. Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 476. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010476
Zhang L, She G-H, She Y-R, Li R, She Z-S. Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(1):476. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010476
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Lei, Guang-Hui She, Yu-Rong She, Rong Li, and Zhen-Su She. 2023. "Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 1: 476. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010476