No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Standardization
2.3. Forecasting Models
2.4. Goodness-of-Fit Measures
2.5. Software
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Geographic Area | Year | Deaths for Lung Cancer | Crude Rate (per 10,000) | Lung Cancer as the Main Cause | Sex (Male) | Age | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<66 Years | 66–75 Years | 76–85 Years | ≥86 Years | ||||||
Province of Taranto * | 2011 | 318 | 54.0 | 293 (92.1) | 260 (81.8) | 89 (28) | 106 (33.3) | 98 (30.8) | 25 (7.9) |
2012 | 281 | 47.7 | 261 (92.9) | 241 (85.8) | 78 (27.8) | 97 (34.5) | 86 (30.6) | 20 (7.1) | |
2013 | 278 | 47.4 | 257 (93.6) | 225 (80.9) | 70 (25.2) | 99 (35.6) | 93 (33.5) | 16 (5.8) | |
2014 | 248 | 42.4 | 232 (93.6) | 201 (81.1) | 61 (24.6) | 95 (38.3) | 70 (28.2) | 22 (8.9) | |
2015 | 280 | 48.1 | 257 (91.8) | 224 (80) | 55 (19.6) | 103 (36.8) | 94 (33.6) | 28 (10) | |
2016 | 230 | 39.7 | 221 (96.1) | 186 (80.9) | 47 (20.4) | 90 (39.1) | 67 (29.1) | 26 (11.3) | |
2017 | 293 | 50.9 | 276 (94.3) | 225 (76.8) | 52 (17.8) | 99 (33.8) | 113 (38.6) | 29 (9.9) | |
2018 | 297 | 51.9 | 268 (90.2) | 250 (84.2) | 66 (22.3) | 96 (32.3) | 103 (34.7) | 32 (10.8) | |
2019 | 302 | 53.1 | 278 (92.1) | 243 (80.5) | 59 (19.5) | 100 (33.1) | 101 (33.4) | 42 (13.9) | |
2020 | 289 | 51.2 | 265 (91.7) | 231 (79.9) | 53 (18.3) | 102 (35.3) | 109 (37.7) | 25 (8.7) | |
2021 | 292 | 52.0 | 259 (88.7) | 233 (79.8) | 45 (15.4) | 108 (37) | 104 (35.6) | 35 (12) | |
Total | 3108 | 48.9 | 2867 (92.2) | 2519 (81) | 675 (21.7) | 1095 (35) | 1038 (33.4) | 300 (9.7) | |
Municipality of Taranto | 2011 | 132 | 65.8 | 122 (92.4) | 104 (78.8) | 43 (32.6) | 51 (38.6) | 24 (18.2) | 14 (10.6) |
2012 | 120 | 59.9 | 110 (91.7) | 97 (80.8) | 37 (30.8) | 43 (35.8) | 35 (29.2) | 5 (4.2) | |
2013 | 111 | 55.7 | 99 (89.2) | 89 (80.2) | 31 (27.9) | 38 (34.2) | 32 (28.8) | 10 (9) | |
2014 | 98 | 49.3 | 89 (90.8) | 83 (84.7) | 24 (24.5) | 28 (28.6) | 32 (32.7) | 14 (14.3) | |
2015 | 95 | 48.3 | 87 (91.6) | 79 (83.2) | 20 (21.1) | 33 (34.7) | 34 (35.8) | 8 (8.4) | |
2016 | 104 | 53.2 | 99 (95.2) | 78 (75) | 23 (22.1) | 46 (44.2) | 24 (23.1) | 11 (10.6) | |
2017 | 125 | 64.4 | 120 (96) | 90 (72) | 23 (18.4) | 40 (32) | 49 (39.2) | 13 (10.4) | |
2018 | 128 | 66.4 | 113 (88.3) | 101 (78.9) | 26 (20.3) | 40 (31.3) | 45 (35.2) | 17 (13.3) | |
2019 | 128 | 67.0 | 117 (91.4) | 97 (75.8) | 26 (20.3) | 44 (34.4) | 41 (32) | 17 (13.3) | |
2020 | 127 | 66.6 | 118 (92.9) | 95 (74.8) | 23 (18.1) | 49 (38.6) | 46 (36.2) | 9 (7.1) | |
2021 | 111 | 58.7 | 98 (88.3) | 79 (71.2) | 19 (17.1) | 45 (40.5) | 37 (33.3) | 10 (9) | |
Total | 1279 | 676.1 | 1172 (91.6) | 992 (77.6) | 295 (23.1) | 457 (35.7) | 399 (31.2) | 128 (10) |
Main Cause of Death | n (%) | |
---|---|---|
ICD10 Code | Label | |
C97 | Malignant neoplasms of independent (primary) multiple sites | 27 (11.2) |
J44.8 | Other specified chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 12 (5) |
I11.9 | Hypertensive heart disease without (congestive) heart failure | 10 (4.1) |
I25.9 | Chronic ischaemic heart disease, unspecified | 10 (4.1) |
E14.9 | Unspecified diabetes mellitus: Without complications | 9 (3.7) |
U07.1 | COVID-19 | 8 (3.3) |
C61 | Malignant neoplasm of prostate | 7 (2.9) |
C67.9 | Malignant neoplasm of bladder, unspecified | 6 (2.5) |
J44.9 | Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, unspecified | 6 (2.5) |
Other diseases | 146 (60.6) | |
Total | 241 |
Model | Province of Taranto | Municipality of Taranto | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMSE | MAE | MAPE | RWR2 | RMSE | MAE | MAPE | RWR2 | |
Seasonal Exponential Smoothing | 0.819 | 0.68 | 17.58 | 0.34 | 1.545 | 1.26 | 29.68 | 0.41 |
Winters Method—Additive | 0.817 | 0.67 | 17.37 | 0.35 | 1.542 | 1.25 | 29.20 | 0.42 |
Winters Method—Multiplicative | 0.855 | 0.69 | 17.94 | 0.28 | 1.615 | 1.31 | 29.93 | 0.36 |
ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0)s | 0.831 | 0.69 | 17.73 | 0.32 | 1.561 | 1.24 | 29.22 | 0.40 |
Pandemic Period | Province of Taranto | Municipality of Taranto |
---|---|---|
March 2020–June 2020 | +16 (−23; +45) | +4 (−19; +28) |
July 2020–September 2020 | +17 (−16; +40) | +12 (−6; +30) |
October 2020–December 2020 | −3 (−38; +21) | −3 (−21; +16) |
Total 2020 | 30 (−77; 106) | 14 (−47; 74) |
January 2021–March 2021 | +1 (−35; +26) | −3 (−22; +16) |
April 2021–June 2021 | +17 (−21; +42) | +6 (−13; +25) |
July 2021–September 2021 | −2 (−42; +25) | -4 (−23; +16) |
October 2021–December 202 | +11 (−31; +39) | −1 (−21; +19) |
Total 2021 | 28 (−130; 133) | −2 (−80; 76) |
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Addabbo, F.; Giotta, M.; Mincuzzi, A.; Minerba, A.S.; Prato, R.; Fortunato, F.; Bartolomeo, N.; Trerotoli, P. No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 5522. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20085522
Addabbo F, Giotta M, Mincuzzi A, Minerba AS, Prato R, Fortunato F, Bartolomeo N, Trerotoli P. No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(8):5522. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20085522
Chicago/Turabian StyleAddabbo, Francesco, Massimo Giotta, Antonia Mincuzzi, Aldo Sante Minerba, Rosa Prato, Francesca Fortunato, Nicola Bartolomeo, and Paolo Trerotoli. 2023. "No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 8: 5522. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20085522