Nudges and Networks: How to Use Behavioural Economics to Improve the Life Cycle Savings-Consumption Balance
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Most People Are Not Rational Life Cycle Financial Planners
- Bounded rationality: Certain types of problems are too complex for individuals to solve on their own. An optimal life-cycle financial plan is a clear example of this. One reason for this is that some individuals are subject to exponential growth (EG) bias—the failure to understand compounding. The cognitive source of EG bias appears to be a strong tendency for the brain to linearize functions when extrapolating or forecasting (Stango and Zinman 2009).Another reason is that many people have a poor sense of the ‘time dimension’ of their lives. Such people can think about events that are coming up in a few weeks or months and plan for these, such as next summer’s holiday. But time horizons such as 5 years, 10 years, 20 years or 40 years ahead are all lumped together in some nebulous distant place called the ‘future’. Such people find it impossible to imagine themselves being old and financially preparing for this eventuality. This can lead to present bias—the tendency to value the present over the future (Goda et al. 2019).1Present bias is consistent with individuals valuing future consumption using hyperbolic discounting—which results in value declining at a more rapid rate in the short term than the long term. As a result, individuals with present-biased preferences are time inconsistent and can experience preference reversals—they value one apple now over two tomorrow,2 for example, but prefer two apples in 51 days over one apple in 50 days3 (Thaler 1981). In other words, they exhibit (apparent) long-term patience, but (definite) short-term impatience. All this implies that future consumption is valued much less highly than present consumption and this discourages savings.
- Bounded self-control: Individuals lack the willpower to start and maintain plans, especially long-term plans.
3. Identifying Behavioural Barriers and Biases
3.1. Pre-Retirement Behavioural Barriers and Biases
3.2. At- and Post-Retirement Behavioural Barriers
4. How Behavioural Economics Can Help Overcome Barriers and Biases
4.1. Overcoming Pre-Retirement Barriers with SMART Plans
4.2. Overcoming At- and Post-Retirement Barriers with SPEEDOMETER Plans
5. How Networks Can Help
5.1. Pre-Retirement Networks
Social media networks … are a powerful means of networking, socializing and gaining information. While chatting with their peers, friends, relatives and acquaintances, people gain tremendous knowledge about (amongst other things) how they are planning for their retirement.
Experts believe that gaining information on how your peers are planning for their retirement years helps people in making decisions for their own retirement plan. The influence is so strong that many retirement planning companies are offering peer data information in their communication to influence people in their customers’ network.
… A retirement planning product that has been validated by people they know and trust will always be preferred by a customer. This is the reason why companies repeatedly request their customers to ‘Like’ them over Facebook, or ‘re-tweet’ them over Twitter. Besides, you always have the option to discuss a particular retirement plan and your retirement goals at length over social networking sites with your knowledgeable friends before you finally decide to buy a retirement planning policy.
- Stage 1: Imagination (6–15 years prior to retirement)—Retirement is viewed positively as an opportunity for adventure and empowerment, although only 44% said they were ‘on track’ in terms of preparation.
- Stage 2: Anticipation (5 years prior to retirement)—As retirement draws, 80% said they ‘will be able to achieve their dreams in retirement’, although two years prior to retirement, worries and anxiety mount, with 22% saying that they will feel a sense of loss after their working years are over.
- Stage 3: Liberation (Retirement Day and one year following)—This is a time of great excitement, relief and enthusiasm as 78% of people say they are ‘enjoying retirement a great deal’.
- Stage 4: Reorientation (2–15 years after retirement)—For many the feeling of liberation is short-lived, giving way to feelings of emptiness (49%), worry (38%) and boredom (34%). Four distinct profiles emerged: Empowered Reinventors (19%), Carefree Contents (19%), Uncertain Searchers (22%) and Worried Strugglers (40%)—see Table 2.
- Stage 5: Reconciliation (16 or more years after retirement)—This a stage of increased contentment, acceptance and personal reflection, with people coming to terms with all that retirement has to offer. There are lower levels of depression (5%), though some people (22%) report feelings of sadness as they confront end-of-life issues.
5.2. Post-Retirement Networks
Comprehensive retirement planning, that is longevity planning, is about more than financial security, it is about ensuring your true social security. So what is the balance and status of your social portfolio? Here are four questions to consider:
- (1)
Do you have an ample number of friends that provide the social capital necessary to address life’s many dimensions: to remain connected, to have fun, and to manage difficult times?- (2)
Do you have human friends that they, and you, can share all with—or are they social media friends that only share pet pics?- (3)
Are you actively seeking activities and places to increase the number of chance collisions you have to encounter new people and to make new friends across the life course?- (4)
And…when was the last time you picked up the phone and privately asked a friend from long ago, “Hi, how ya doin’?”
Maintaining an active social life gets harder with age. Little by little, people we were close to move away or pass away. And when we retire, we lose about half of our social network. As our social pool evaporates, it’s difficult to replenish, because options are limited or we’re not motivated enough to meet new people.
… Staying socially connected is essential to one’s well-being. A good social life…
Provides a sense a belonging and feeds our personal identity. Adds meaning to life and strengthens self-worth. Provides support, making it easier to handle problems and keeping stress levels in check. Gives us something to do and someone to do it with.
Social isolation, in contrast, is as high a health risk factor as obesity and smoking 15 cigarettes a day. On the psychological side, self-esteem can be weakened and there’s a higher risk of depression. There can also be physical consequences, possibly from a lack of activity, but also from the stress of feeling alone. Those who are socially disconnected…
Are more at risk of high blood pressure, coronary disease, and stroke. Have a faster breakdown of cognitive skills and greater likelihood of dementia because the mind is less active. Have greater decline of functional skills, such as walking or climbing stairs. Have a weakened immune system, possibly linked to stress.
So, what makes for a good social life? For sure, it’s the number of people we interact with and the amount of time we dedicate to them. But it’s also about diversity—the broader and more diverse one’s social circle, the better. That’s how you get exposed to new ideas and different ways of thinking.
… Commit time each day to seek out ways and places to meet people. Here’s some ideas that might help you get there…
Meet up with your current friends and acquaintances regularly—even the annoying ones. Nurture these relationships and recognize the benefits they provide. Use the internet to track down old friends with whom you’ve had meaningful relationships in the past. Join clubs and senior organizations or start your own. This may sound silly, but if you know one person who knows another who knows another, soon they’ll be enough folks to meet anyone’s social needs. You might try setting up a group on a theme basis, e.g., dining, wine tasting, golf, etc.—that way you can spend time with people who share your interests. Take a class or two at your local college, library, or community centre. Consider taking a job outside the home, specifically for the social benefits.
If you’re not sure whether your social life is adequate, it probably isn’t and you need to fix that. Do it for your health, if not for the sheer enjoyment.
- Retirement—Health and Happiness (Society of Actuaries 2017). This guide addresses questions, such as ‘How do I make sure that I am emotionally healthy in retirement?’ and ‘How do I make sure that I remain physically active in retirement?’
- Late-in-Life Decisions Guide (Society of Actuaries 2022).
- ○
- This guide uses a holistic approach to identify resources and best practices. Such an approach helps connect critical health care, housing, and other financial choices with practical life management decisions during one’s later years. Readers will address financial management assistance and explore key questions. This guide will address special housing needs, recognizing the need for assistance, finding help around the home, avoiding scams and fraud, and building a local support network.
- ○
- Retirees may need help with life’s challenges, but recognizing when it’s time to seek assistance is not always obvious, especially when cognitive decline occurs. Sometimes the need is easy to identify, such as hiring a housekeeper when physical limitations make housekeeping difficult. Other times, the need is difficult to identify, such as knowing when to seek help with day-to-day financial management or an attorney for legal issues. Having a support network is critical to managing these and similar challenges.
6. How to Implement the Plans: A Life Cycle Fund Plus Corporate Platform
7. The Role of Legislation
8. Conclusions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
1 | Blake and Pickles (2021b) discuss the role of exponential growth bias and present bias in the valuation of retirement savings using the Mental Time Travel framework of Blake and Pickles (2021a). |
2 | The short-term personal discount rate is so high that two apples tomorrow have a lower present discounted value than one apple today. |
3 | The long-term personal discount rate is much lower so that two apples in 51 days have a higher present discounted value than one apple in 50 days. |
4 | Which is the majority of members in private sector company plans. Defined benefit (DB) pension plans are now confined primarily to the public sector. In DB plans, the investment decision is made by the plans themselves not the members. |
5 | To illustrate, suppose an individual owns a house and has liquid assets in the form of bank deposits and risk-free fixed-income government bonds. Suppose also that the interest rate on the liquid assets is very low—as at the time of writing. Suppose now there is a big increase in inflation and in particular house price inflation. This will increase the real value of the house, but reduce the real value of the liquid assets. If the individual keeps the house and the liquid assets in two separate mental accounts, they might decide to reduce current consumption due to the reduced real value of the liquid assets, since the house is not treated as currently accessible. However, if the real value of the house increased by more than the reduction in the real value of the liquid assets and the individual looked at their total wealth which has now increased, they might decide to increase current consumption. This would be the optimal strategy. |
6 | |
7 | The average age at which someone will die. |
8 | Another behavioural trait is that people tend to overestimate low probability events, such as dying immediately after retirement. |
9 | People tend to underestimate high probability events, such as living beyond life expectancy. |
10 | By gradually reducing the weight of the pension fund in equities and increasing the weight in low-risk bonds. |
11 | In the case of the UK’s National Employment Savings Trust (NEST), it is 99% of members (Understanding our members’ investment needs, Research to inform Nest’s investment strategy, December 2021; www.nestpensions.org.uk/schemeweb/dam/nestlibrary/member-evidence-research-report.pdf (accessed on 9 May 2022)). |
12 | When interest rates are low, annuity rates will be low, since annuity providers buy bonds to make the annuity payments and bond prices will be high. However, low interest rates encourage companies to borrow to invest and this can lead to an investment boom and an overheating economy. The monetary authorities will then raise interest rates to constrain inflation. This, in turn, will reduce bond prices and raise annuity rates. But high interest rates will discourage investment and the economy will contract and unemployment will increase. To avoid a recession, the monetary authorities will lower interest rates—and the cycle repeats. Trying to time the interest rate cycle in order to judge the best time to buy an annuity is a difficult if not impossible task. This is why buying tranches of annuities over time is a more sensible strategy for hedging interest rate risk. |
13 | The left panel of Figure 1 shows that 0.8% of 65-year olds will die before age 66. Their annuity payments will end and be transferred to survivors in the form of a survivor credit or mortality premium. The return on an annuity therefore exceeds the return on a risk-free bond by the level of the survivor credit. |
14 | https://www.statista.com/statistics/664840/average-market-risk-premium-usa/ (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
15 | Every year an increasing percentage of the surviving population will die each year, that is, the percentage of 66-year olds who die before age 67 will be higher than the percentage of 65-year olds who die before age 66, etc. |
16 | Without the risk of a big reduction in capital value, unlike equities. |
17 | The name SPEEDOMETER was also chosen to reflect the fact that the aim of the plan is to monitor the speed of fund decumulation, so it is not too fast and not too slow, but just the right safe speed to maximize retirement expenditure without the risk of ever running out of funds before death. |
18 | For example, the Money and Pensions Service in the UK; https://moneyandpensionsservice.org.uk/ (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
19 | Deferred annuities are a very useful component of any retirement investment strategy. Unfortunately, they are not available for sale in many countries. One of the key reasons for this is that they are expensive for insurers to provide because of high regulatory capital requirements. This is the case for countries subject to Solvency II, for example. The absence of deferred annuities is a significant market failure. |
20 | This requires individuals to spend only from the income from the annuities and deferred annuities and not to dip into their residual unannuitized wealth which is intended to be bequested when the individuals die. |
21 | Pickering is president of BESTrustees and a trustee of a number of UK pension schemes, including the Plumbing Industry Pension Scheme and People’s Pension. He is also a former chair of: the financial literacy charity, Life Academy; the National Association of Pension Funds (NAPF), now called the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA); and the European Federation for Retirement Provision (EFRP). |
22 | https://www.adobe.com/express/learn/blog/top-social-media-sites (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
23 | |
24 | Pendykoski runs Self Directed Retirement Plans LLC, a retirement planning firm (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
25 | https://www.natwestgroup.com/news/2021/08/natwest-launches-new-housemate-app.html (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
26 | https://lib.standardlife.com/library/investors_day_31_may.pdf (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
27 | |
28 | For example, I have given pensions advice to numerous colleagues at the institutions I have worked at. |
29 | https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
30 | https://themoneycharity.org.uk/advice-information/savings/ (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
31 | https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/site/mse-charity-fund/ (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
32 | https://www.stepchange.org (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
33 | agelab.mit.edu (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
34 | Pascale is a retired research psychologist and author of The Retirement Maze. |
35 | https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/2954/text (accessed on 9 May 2022). |
36 | Bonds that make coupon payments only and have no principal repayment. |
37 | Dowd and Blake (2022) discuss the good design of defined contribution pension plans. |
38 | Although there could be an inheritance tax liability. |
39 | Pioneer Investment’s European Colloquia 2007. |
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Age Range | Description |
---|---|
Baby Boomers (1946–1964) | Gilt Edge Lifestyles Mid Life Affluence Modest Mid Years Advancing StatusAgeing Workers |
Generation X (1965–1981) | Successful Starts Happy Housemates Surviving Singles On the Breadline Flourishing Families |
Generation Y (1982–1995) | Happy Housemates Surviving Singles On the Breadline |
Personality Type in Retirement | Description |
---|---|
Empowered Reinventors (19%) | Can easily adapt to change—welcome adventure and new challenges |
Carefree Contents (19%) | Optimistic about coping with change—but do not seek adventure or new challenges |
Uncertain Searchers (22%) | Recognise change could be fulfilling and satisfying, but still trying to make sense of change |
Worried Strugglers (40%) | Worried, bored or saddened after the change. Lack of planning and preparation play a role here |
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Blake, D. Nudges and Networks: How to Use Behavioural Economics to Improve the Life Cycle Savings-Consumption Balance. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2022, 15, 217. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15050217
Blake D. Nudges and Networks: How to Use Behavioural Economics to Improve the Life Cycle Savings-Consumption Balance. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2022; 15(5):217. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15050217
Chicago/Turabian StyleBlake, David. 2022. "Nudges and Networks: How to Use Behavioural Economics to Improve the Life Cycle Savings-Consumption Balance" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15, no. 5: 217. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15050217
APA StyleBlake, D. (2022). Nudges and Networks: How to Use Behavioural Economics to Improve the Life Cycle Savings-Consumption Balance. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(5), 217. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15050217