J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 17, Issue 2 (February 2024) – 47 articles

This study investigates the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its volatility with the net inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Canada, placing a novel emphasis on sector-level analysis. The study utilizes time series data from 2007 to 2022 and employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to assess short-run and long-run relationships between the said variables. The findings reveal significant impacts of changes in REER, its volatility, and GDP on net FDI in the short run, with lasting effects of REER and its volatility, lagged GDP, and trade openness on FDI in the long run. At the sectoral level, FDI inflows in energy and mining, manufacturing, finance, and insurance exhibit significant sensitivity to changes in REER. Simultaneously, the volatility of REER has a significant impact on FDI inflows in manufacturing industries and the finance and insurance sector in the short run. In the long run, REER exerts a significant influence on the net FDI inflows in energy and mining, as well as manufacturing industries. The asymmetry in findings suggests a need for sector-specific attention to retaining and attracting FDI to Canada. Full article

In the current study, we sought to construct an integrated model to identify various elements and evaluate the impact of these identified factors on customers’ behavioral intention to use or not use specific M-wallets for payment. To this end, we proposed and validated a conceptual model. In all, 600 questionnaires were distributed, and 482 responses were deemed usable. Structural equation modeling was used to demonstrate the stability of the proposed model and to test the research hypotheses. Perceived value, trust, compatibility, and social influence were all found to have a substantial influence on behavioral intention; however, consumers are less likely to use an M-wallet on the basis of perceived enjoyment. We also found that trust, followed by compatibility, has a stronger influence on customers’ behavioral intentions in the context of M-payments. This study only included six M-wallets and was restricted to a certain age group in a single city. Understanding the many characteristics of behavioral intention can help M-wallet providers gain consumer trust and increase the frequency with which consumers use M-wallets for M-payments. The findings suggest that M-wallet service providers should consider and manage all influencing elements as proactive strategies for M-wallet intention. This strategy can be used to create an M-wallet-user behavioral intention model that will assist enterprises/companies in managing the establishment of their users’ behavioral intentions. Full article

This study examines the impact of family ownership on tax avoidance decisions. This study further investigates the effects of corporate governance quality on the relationship between family ownership and tax avoidance. We construct a sample of non-financial firms listed on the ASE for the period 2015–2021. The results demonstrate that family-owned firms have high levels of tax avoidance. This result supports the private-benefit expropriation hypothesis. Regarding the mediating effect of corporate governance variables, the results suggest that large audit committees and audit committees that meet more frequently curb attempts by family owners to avoid paying tax. Full article

This study analyzes the term structures of sovereign quanto credit default swap (CDS) spreads and currency options, which are driven by anticipated currency depreciation risk following sovereign credit default (Twin Ds). We develop consistent pricing models for these instruments using a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, which allows us to decompose the term structure into the risk components. We find a common risk factor between the intensity process of sovereign credit risk and the stochastic volatility of the exchange rate, and the depreciation risk mainly captures the dependence structure between these markets during periods of high market stress in the Eurozone countries. Depreciation risk is an important component of sovereign quanto CDS spreads and is evident in the negative slope of the volatility smile in the currency option market. Full article

This paper proposes a penalized Bayesian computational algorithm as an improvement to the LASSO approach for economic forecasting in multivariate time series. Methodologically, a weighted variable selection procedure is involved in handling high-dimensional and highly correlated data, reduce the dimensionality of the model and parameter space, and then select a promising subset of predictors affecting the outcomes. It is weighted because of two auxiliary penalty terms involved in prior specifications and posterior distributions. The empirical example addresses the issue of pandemic disease prediction and the effects on economic development. It builds on a large set of European and non-European regions to also investigate cross-unit heterogeneity and interdependency. According to the estimation results, density forecasts are conducted to highlight how the promising subset of covariates would help to predict potential contagion due to pandemic diseases. Policy issues are also discussed. Full article

This study examines (1) how risk–payoff preference can be affected by differences in consideration of future consequences (CFC), prior gain/loss, and personal risk profile, and (2) whether one’s risk–payoff preference may vary with justification prompts. Using an experimental design with 366 undergraduate business students, participants are tasked to make risk–payoff choices in two scenarios, with the combined risk–payoff outcomes serving as the dependent variable. In addition, participants are assessed on their personal risk profiles and also complete the 14-item CFC scale to gauge the propensity to take into account future consequences of their behaviors. Findings show that one who scores low (high) in CFC will prefer lower (higher) risk and payoff. Further, for an individual who scores high in CFC and has a prior gain (loss), he/she will be more inclined to prefer lower (higher) risk and payoff, though this effect is moderated by one’s risk profile. Finally, justification prompts help to reduce one’s propensity toward high risk–payoff, irrespective of prior gain/loss and risk profile considerations. With regard to consumers’ financial choices, particularly in a volatile economic environment, the findings here indicate that prompting for strategic justifications before making decisions can help lower one’s overall propensity toward high risk–payoff choices. Full article

In the wake of inflation, investors engage in identifying inflation hedging instruments. Most importantly, investors attempt to minimize risk and maximize returns to safeguard against inflation. Risk plays an important role in this process. The objective of this research is to examine the relationship between risk factors and investor behavior, particularly in the Indian context. Based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB), we built a conceptual model investigating the intricate relationship between risk factors, investment priority, investment strategy and investment decision-making. We collected data from 537 respondents in the southern region of India and analyzed the data using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The result indicate: (i) risk factors (risk capacity, risk tolerance, and risk propensity) are positively related to investment priority and investment strategy, (ii) investment priority is positively related to investment decision-making, (iii) conscientiousness moderates the relationship between investment priority and investment decision-making, (iv) investment strategy is positively related to investment decision-making. Finally, the practical and theoretical implications for research are discussed. Full article

The rise in crime against a person in rapidly growing cities poses significant risks to societies and economies, affecting both microeconomic and macroeconomic aspects. This trend could potentially deter economic performance and domestic investment. Consequently, this study aims to analyze the impact of crime against a person on domestic investment in Dubai spanning 1989–2021. Dubai is considered an emerging economy and a highly competitive global city. It is also acknowledged as one of the world’s smart cities. This study employed the novel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to investigate the impact of both the escalation and contraction of crime against a person on domestic investment in Dubai. The findings exhibit that the fluctuation in crime against a person has an asymmetrical impact on domestic investment. In addition, estimations of the positive and negative long-run asymmetric coefficients indicate that crime against a person has a negative impact on domestic investment in Dubai. Full article

To adapt to the business environment, organisations adhere to management strategies capable of removing the effects of negative events, transforming themselves into resilient organisations. Physical and mental difficulties are the consequences of recent corporate developments, and protecting these organisations is a significant concern for managers. Using regression analysis of panel data, we evaluate the effectiveness and performance of 34 tourism and transport companies listed on the BSE in the 2005–2022 period by testing the effect of leverage on financial performance. Then, we focus on identifying the effects of recent crises (the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic) on financial performance and, implicitly, on organisational resilience. The findings suggest that the research hypotheses were partially validated, noting that the indicators included in the study registered significant decreases for the COVID-19 crisis period compared to the global financial crisis period. The paper provides information on measuring the resilience of companies through their ability to withstand the global financial crisis and the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is also among the first to examine the role of financial crises in the leverage and financial performance relationship in Romania. Full article

While well-established literature argues that realized variances are close to a lognormal distribution, this study follows Benoit Mandelbrot by taking a fractal perspective. Using power laws to model realized foreign exchange rate variances, our findings indicate that power laws offer an alternative to the lognormal in terms of goodness-of-fit tests. Further, our analysis shows that estimated power law exponents for seven out of nine realized FX variances are $\widehat{\alpha }<3$, which indicates that the variance of realized variance is statistically undefined. We conclude that the foreign exchange rate market is far riskier than earlier believed. By implication, documented research in an enormous body of literature that draws conclusions from variance analyses stands on shaky grounds. Full article

An efficient and effective portfolio provides maximum return potential with minimum risk by choosing an optimal balance among assets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the performance of optimized portfolios in minimizing risk and achieving maximum returns in the dynamics of Timor-Leste’s equity portfolio in the international capital market for the period from January 2006 to December 2019. The empirical findings of this study indicate that the correlation matrix showed that JPM has a very strong positive correlation with one of the twenty assets, namely BAC (0.80). Moreover, the optimal portfolio of the twenty stocks exceeding 10% consists of four consecutive stocks, namely DGE.L (10.69%), NSRGY (10.37%), JPM (10.04%), and T (10.03%). In addition, the minimum portfolio consists of two stocks with a minimum variance of more than 10%, namely SAP.DE (11.20%) and DGE.L (10.39%). The evaluation of the optimal portfolio using Markowitz parameters also showed that the highest expected return and the lowest risk were 1.22% and 3.12%, respectively. Full article

We here analyze the factor loadings given by the CAPM, the Fama–French three (FF3), and the five-factor model (FF5), and test the performance and the validity of adding two more factors (volatility and dispersion of returns) to the FF5 factor model of European index-based ESG leaders’ portfolios. Our ESG leaders’ portfolios generated significant negative alphas during 2012–2022, corroborating the literature’s negative argument. The negative abnormal returns of ESG leaders’ portfolios are homogeneous across the three ESG pillars. We conclude that European ESG leaders’ portfolios are biased toward large cap and value stocks with robust operating profitability and against aggressive investments. As robustness tests, we examine Global ESG leaders’ index-based portfolios, producing the same results but with reduced importance in some loading factors like profitability and investment strategy. Furthermore, we deduced that European and Global ESG leaders’ portfolios tilt towards volatility and herding bias. Full article

Classical double entry accounting has provided the foundation for accounting within the firm for many centuries. The digitally signed receipt, an innovation from financial cryptography, gives rise to exactly duplicated entries for each of 3 parties or roles, the outcome of which we call triple entry accounting. This presents a challenge to double entry bookkeeping by expanding the use of accounting from inside firms to activity between the firms. When applied to digital cash and digital assets, the approach of negotiating a single signed receipt between parties lowers costs by delivering reliable data to support stronger accounting, and makes much stronger governance possible in a way that positively impacts on the future needs of corporate and public accounting. By turning the opinions of firm owners into facts agreed between firms, triple entry bookkeeping creates the bulletproof accounting layer to support aggressive uses and adversarial users such as are found in the Bitcoin system of transactions. Full article

This paper studies optimal consumption and investment strategies with lifetime uncertainty to design a smooth pension product. In a simplified Black–Scholes market, we investigate three strategies for consumption and investment: the classical strategy, the habit strategy, and the hybrid strategy. Incorporating additive habit formation in preferences leads to a request for less consumption volatility. Studying the consumption dynamics, it turns out that the hybrid strategy complies with the same preferences as the habit strategy. In our design of a smooth pension product, we are highly inspired by the consumption structure under the hybrid strategy and let consumption be specified as a time-dependent weighted average of last year’s consumption level and a standard market rate life annuity. We give two approaches for the investment portfolio. The numerical examples show that consumption under these approaches is less volatile than consumption under the classical strategy. Full article

The growth of state transfers to offset disparities in regional development affects the stability of the country’s financial system. This article delves into this outcome, empirically analyzing whether the transfer system for horizontal fiscal alignment leads to decreased financial system stability through increased borrowing at municipal and national levels. To test this hypothesis, we employ a quasi-experimental analysis strategy, examining potential scenarios of configuring transfers to Ukrainian municipalities for addressing horizontal fiscal imbalance. Across various transfer calculation scenarios involving changes in the calculation period, the number of budgets in consideration, and the alignment subject, we find that a suboptimal system of horizontal fiscal alignment, transferring funds from financially secure municipalities to insecure ones, leads to a rise in the public finance debt, subsequently decreasing financial system stability. Additionally, we discover that the current mechanism in Ukraine for horizontal fiscal alignment, designed to mitigate inequalities in socio-economic development among communities and regions, paradoxically exacerbates these disparities, artificially inflates indicators of decentralization reform success, and undermines public finance stability. Full article

The exercise of audit judgment is essential because it is impractical to perform an audit on all types of evidence. These types of evidence are considered in forming an opinion on audited financial statements, making audit judgment a determinant of the audit’s outcome. The objective of this research is to analyze the factors that affect an auditor’s judgment and decision making (JDM) during an audit. This study used an exploratory research design, with the factor analysis approach as its methodology. However, the data were collected using the questionnaire method. The questionnaire was sent to all member auditors of the Lebanese Association of Certified Public Accountants (LACPA). A total of 310 completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. The data analysis findings indicate that the auditor’s JDM throughout the audit process is affected by three factors: personal, task, and environmental factors. The auditor’s personal factor becomes the dominant factor because it has the largest eigenvalue of 7.949. These findings demonstrate the complex and diverse nature of auditor judgment, highlighting the significance of considering audit JDM factors. Therefore, auditors may improve their abilities to make informed and effective judgments throughout the audit process by acknowledging the importance of personal, task, and environmental factors. Full article

This paper delves into the evolving post-pandemic business arena, focusing on how liability options and social norms are reshaping industry structures. We anticipate lasting transformations due to the emergence of new safety standards that bridge the gap between corporate interests and societal welfare. To foster these changes, effective post-lockdown economic policies could encompass not only rigorous social standards but also specific financial incentives. Examples of such incentives include tax relief for businesses implementing comprehensive health protocols and subsidies for those transitioning to remote work or modifying production layouts to minimize infection risks. Our analysis delineates two predominant operational frameworks for firms in this new environment: the liability and property regimes. These are determined by each firm’s financial outcomes and the extent of damages incurred, all measured against societal expectations. Firms within the liability regime may exhibit only partial compliance, often attributed to ambiguous standards and prevailing uncertainties, potentially leading to a dip in profits. In contrast, entities operating under the property regime are likely to engage in more extensive organizational restructuring. A key insight from our study is the paradigm shift in investment behavior, increasingly influenced by risk management, particularly in the strategic choice between liability and property rules. This shift is evident in how firms now prioritize managing potential external liabilities, such as environmental hazards or evolving regulatory landscapes, in their investment decisions. Consequently, the traditional growth-centric investment paradigm is being supplemented by strategies that emphasize safeguarding against various external risks, marking a significant realignment in corporate investment philosophies post-pandemic. This transition underscores the intricate interplay between economic policies, corporate strategies, and societal dynamics in the contemporary business milieu. Full article

We show that three prominent consumption-based asset pricing models—the Bansal–Yaron, Campbell–Cochrane and Cecchetti–Lam–Mark models—cannot explain the dynamic properties of stock market returns. We show this by estimating these models with GMM, deriving ex-ante expected returns from them and then testing whether the difference between realised and expected returns is a martingale difference sequence, which it is not. Mincer–Zarnowitz regressions show that the models’ out-of-sample expected returns are systematically biased. Furthermore, semi-parametric tests of whether the models’ state variables are consistent with the degree of own-history predictability in stock returns suggest that only the Campbell–Cochrane habit variable may be able to explain return predictability, although the evidence on this is mixed. Full article

Shadow prices simplify the derivation of optimal trading strategies in markets with transaction costs by transferring optimization into a more tractable, frictionless market. This paper establishes that a naïve shadow price ansatz for maximizing long-term returns, given average volatility yields a strategy that is, for small bid–ask spreads, asymptotically optimal at the third order. Considering the second-order impact of transaction costs, such a strategy is essentially optimal. However, for risk aversion different from one, we devise alternative strategies that outperform the shadow market at the fourth order. Finally, it is shown that the risk-neutral objective rules out the existence of shadow prices. Full article

We aim to detect outliers in the daily stock price indices from the Saudi Arabia stock exchange (Tadawul) with 2026 observations from October 2011 to December 2019 provided by the Saudi Authority for Statistics and the Saudi Central Bank. We apply the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm for detecting outliers in stock returns. We select the inflation rate (Inflation), oil price (Loil), and repo rate (Repo) as input variables to the MLP architecture. The performance of the MLP is evaluated using standard metrics for binary classification, namely the false positive rate (FP rate), false negative rate (FN rate), F-measure, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), accuracy (ACC), and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The results demonstrate the efficiency and good performance of the MLP algorithm based on different criteria tests. Full article

This review aims to provide a comprehensive synthesis of the coverage of sustainability reporting (SR) aspects within the corpus of qualitative SR literature. It seeks to elucidate the theoretical and conceptual foundations that have guided the trajectory of the sustainability field and illuminate the qualitative methodologies used in this body of literature. Employing a systematic review methodology, this study undertakes an exhaustive examination of 242 selected empirical studies on sustainability reporting conducted during the period spanning from 2001 to 2022. The noteworthy contribution of this review to the realm of sustainability research lies in its identification of unexplored and underexplored domains that merit attention in forthcoming investigations. These include but are not limited to employee health and safety practices, product responsibility, and gender dynamics. While stakeholder theory and institutional theory have been dominant theories within the selected literature, the exploration of moral legitimacy remains largely underinvestigated. It is essential to underscore that this review exclusively encompasses qualitative studies, owing to the richness and versatility inherent in qualitative research methods. This deliberate selection enables researchers to employ diverse methodological and theoretical frameworks to gain a profound understanding of engagement within the practice of sustainability reporting. This review introduces an interesting approach by considering the thematic scope, as well as theoretical and methodological choices, observed across the selected studies. Full article

The Black–Scholes model and many of its extensions imply a log-normal distribution of stock total returns over any finite holding period. However, for a holding period of up to one year, empirical stock return distributions (both conditional and unconditional) are not log-normal, but rather much closer to the logistic distribution. This paper derives analytic option pricing formulas for an underlying asset with a logistic return distribution. These formulas are simple and elegant and employ exactly the same parameters as B&S. The logistic option pricing formula fits empirical option prices much better than B&S, providing explanatory power comparable to much more complex models with a larger number of parameters. Full article

This study explores the role of digital financial inclusion in mitigating poverty and bolstering economic growth, with a special focus on developing nations during the COVID-19 era. Centering on Jordan, it seeks to identify key influencers of financial access by analyzing data from 260 participants using a non-linear probit regression model. The research uncovers a significant disparity in financial inclusion between Jordanian adult males and females, attributable to differences in education, wealth, employment, and income levels. These findings point to the necessity of prioritizing financial accessibility for marginalized groups such as women, the elderly, and those with lower income to effectively combat poverty and facilitate economic advancement and sustainable development in emerging markets. Full article

Financial decision making requires a sound handling of chance events. However, various studies have suggested that people are prone to illusion of control, i.e., the belief that prospects of a chancy event are better if they are involved in the randomisation process. This paper reports results from an experiment ($N=420$) suggesting that psychological characteristics moderate risk-taking behaviour under such circumstances. For example, we find that subjects high in sensation seeking buy more tickets of a risky lottery if they determine the winning numbers themselves and the random event lies in the future. The findings suggest that “illusion of control” effects are at least partly driven by underlying (idiosyncratic) emotions/preferences rather than an actual belief in control. Regarding applications, the results emphasise the importance of individual characteristics for the behaviour of decision makers in a financial context. Full article

The purpose of this study is to verify whether the transportation infrastructure investment carried out by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has promoted the economic development of its recipient countries. Since the establishment of the AIIB, its investments in infrastructure development, aimed at promoting economic growth in Asian developing countries, have garnered considerable attention. This study selects India, the largest recipient country of the AIIB, as the research object and chooses the Gujarat Road Project as the research case, since it is a completed infrastructure construction investment project in the transportation field. This paper provides an overview of the project’s operation and summarizes key factors in the project’s implementation. In the data analysis section, the per capita GDP is selected as the explained variable to measure economic development, and the LASSO regression method is used to select several variables that affect economic development. Moreover, the random forest model is used to obtain the causal relationship between road construction and the per capita GDP from 2001 to 2022. The results indicate that road construction in India has a significant positive effect on per capita GDP growth, the Gujarat Road Project supported by the AIIB also has a positive effect on per capita GDP growth, and this effect is stronger than that at the national level. The main contribution of this work is the validation of the investment strategy of the AIIB and the quantification of the economic contribution of AIIB investment projects to the local area. Full article

Financial literacy is the ability of people to process economic information to make better financial decisions. Therefore, the financial literacy of entrepreneurs could affect the management of their companies and their results. The aim of this research is to determine if there is a significant relationship between companies’ performance and financial knowledge, financial behavior, and financial attitude of micro, small, and medium-sized entrepreneurs. The incidence of the variables age, size, and sector of the companies, as well as the entrepreneur’s age, gender, and educational level on companies’ performance, is also analyzed. Data from 206 entrepreneurs from Veracruz, Mexico, were analyzed using a logistic regression model. The results show that the financial behavior of the entrepreneurs has a positive and highly significant effect on companies’ performance, although the entrepreneur´s knowledge and attitude don´t have a significant relationship with companies´ performance. The results also show that companies in the industrial sector led by men are less likely to obtain high performance compared to those in the commerce sector. No incidence was found of the variables age, size of the company, and entrepreneur´s educational level on the performance of their companies. Full article

This research study aims to assess the impact of environmental accounting information disclosure on financial risk within the context of Vietnam’s stock market. The data collection process involved 60 non-financial companies, carefully selected from both the pool of 100 Sustainable Companies listed in the “Programme on Benchmarking and Announcing Sustainable Companies in Vietnam (CSI)”, as organized by VBCSD, and companies outside this list. The data span a timeframe from 2018 to 2022. Afterward, we utilize regression models to assess relationships and employ the t-test to evaluate differences. The results indicate that environmental accounting information disclosure has an inverse effect on the financial risk of the current year and the following year. This implies that companies that are more transparent and proactive in reporting their environmental performance are likely to experience decreased financial risk. Furthermore, the results also show differences in financial risk between the group of companies within the “100 Sustainable Companies” list and the group of companies outside this list. This disparity underscores the potential financial benefits of being recognized as a sustainable company. Based on the findings, the research team has provided several recommendations to enhance environmental accounting information disclosure and awareness. Full article

In an initial public offering (IPO) the firm can set the offer price of its shares, based on the valuation of the firm, by changing the number of shares. This study uses stock ownership records and hand-collected IPO data to analyze the offer prices, the underpricing of IPO shares (measured as the initial return, IR) and the relationship with the post-IPO ownership structure. Specifically, the paper focuses on individual IPO investors. The results show that for the lowest priced IPOs the IR is significantly higher priced IPOs. Furthermore, for the low-priced IPOs, there is a negative relationship between offer price and breadth of ownership. This implies that stocks with a low price can attract more investors than stocks with higher offer prices. However, for high-priced IPOs the relationship is positive, suggesting that also the IPOs with highest price attract more investors. Overall, this study shows that the offer price of an IPO firm may have a moderate effect on its post-IPO ownership structure. Full article

The public sector has limited resources, and how these resources are allocated in expenditures and investments is crucial. Our article focuses on controlling this allocation for the Greek economy from 2000 to 2021, which includes the country’s debt crisis. To do so, we utilized data from national accounts, categorized inputs and outputs, and examined their volatility and stability over time using statistical and mathematical methods. Our analysis revealed that the crisis impacted the size and allocation of public inputs and outputs. While some sectors of the Greek economy displayed stability in financing over time, others were more volatile. Using a mathematical accounting approach contributes to the academic discourse on rational resource allocation in the public sector. Our results validate the tax hypothesis for primary revenues and expenditures and advocate that it is necessary to make targeted recruitments in the sector that is needed each time while keeping the total number constant, which leads to the need to redistribute public sector workers. In the same way, public projects should not only focus on infrastructure projects but should also be spread to new areas related to climate change and the agricultural sector. Full article

Stock bubbles are characterized by unpredictable price surges and subsequent declines, causing significant losses for investors. This study investigates the effectiveness of the Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) test in identifying mild explosive patterns and speculative bubbles within individual S&P 500 stocks, as compared to the Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) test. Utilizing real-time monitoring data, this research examines unit roots, stationarity, and the ability to detect multiple structural breaks. The GSADF test consistently outperforms the SADF test in rejecting the null hypothesis, demonstrating greater sensitivity and efficacy in recognizing stock bubbles. Monte Carlo simulations address size distortions in the GSADF test, enhancing accuracy. Full article