Operational Risk Assessment of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy Systems Considering N-1 Accidents
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. The Steady-State Modeling and Power Flow Calculation of EGIES
2.1. Gas Turbine Condition Analysis Model
2.2. Energy Flow Model of Gas Pressure Regulator
2.3. Natural Gas Pipeline Model
2.4. The Steady-State Power Flow Model of EGIES
2.5. Flow Calculation for EGIES
- (1)
- According to the law of conservation of mass, Kirchhoff’s first law and Kirchhoff’s second law are also applicable in natural gas systems. Correspondingly, natural gas flow solutions can be formed focusing on nodes and closed loops [20].
- (2)
- The key to solving power flow of power system and natural gas system is to use high-efficiency iterative algorithm to solve high-dimensional nonlinear equations. Therefore, the solution method represented by Newton’s method can be extended to natural gas systems [21].
3. Accident Severity Assessment Indexes of EGIES
3.1. Low-Pressure Severity Index for Natural Gas System Nodes
3.2. Gas Pipeline Overload Severity Index
3.3. Gas Flow Distribution Severity Index of Natural Gas System
3.4. Gas Load Loss Severity Index
4. EGIES Risk Assessment Considering N-1 Failure
4.1. EGIES Failure Probability Considering N-1 Failure
4.2. Risk Assessment Model of EGIES
4.3. EGIES Security Assessment Process Based on Risk Theory
- (1)
- Select the target component and formulate the corresponding component accident set for the target component; Through the simulation of component failure scenarios, the ability of EGIES to maintain normal operation was analyzed.
- (2)
- Update the running state of each component according to the proposed component accident set; EGIES steady-state model was established to analyze the operation status of typical accident scenarios. In the convergence calculation of the model, not only the convergence of the power flow of the EGIES coupling system is guaranteed, but also the operation of the system is guaranteed to meet the constraint conditions. If not, the cycle iteration is conducted by adjusting the energy coupling variable or optimizing load reduction to finally meet the operating conditions.
- (3)
- Calculate the EGIES risk. Through the established EGIES evaluation system, the vulnerability and importance of each component of the system were identified horizontally, and the main impact of the component on the system operation was evaluated vertically.
5. Case Study
- (1)
- The voltage limit range of power system nodes is between 0.95 and 1.05. The transmission power of the line is within the limit range.
- (2)
- The lower limit of the gas pressure at the natural gas pipeline network system is 45 bar; the amount of natural gas flowing through the pipeline cannot exceed its limit value; the injected gas volume of the gas sources does not exceed 25,700; the compression ratio of the compressor does not exceed 1.6, the gas volume does not exceed 7200, 1500, 8000 at the compressors Q5, Q12 and Q16.
6. Summary
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Start of Pipeline i | End of Pipeline j | Length L(m) | Diameter D(mm) |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 750 | 5000 |
2 | 3 | 400 | 5000 |
2 | 4 | 275 | 5000 |
2 | 5 | 275 | 5000 |
3 | 6 | 250 | 6000 |
3 | 7 | 275 | 6000 |
3 | 8 | 275 | 5000 |
4 | 7 | 175 | 5000 |
5 | 6 | 175 | 6000 |
6 | 8 | 200 | 500 |
6 | 12 | 400 | 5000 |
7 | 8 | 175 | 500 |
7 | 9 | 250 | 500 |
9 | 10 | 200 | 500 |
10 | 11 | 150 | 500 |
12 | 13 | 350 | 2000 |
12 | 14 | 750 | 5000 |
12 | 15 | 350 | 2000 |
Node Number | Gas Load (m3/h) |
---|---|
2 | 14,595 |
3 | 2000 |
4 | 1750 |
5 | 1570 |
6 | 8500 |
7 | 1500 |
8 | 1860 |
9 | 650 |
10 | 450 |
11 | 290 |
12 | 100,00 |
13 | 4000 |
15 | 4000 |
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Ranking | Element | Comprehensive Risk Index Value |
---|---|---|
1 | Q32 | 3.874359 |
2 | Q1 | 3.547659 |
3 | Q17 | 3.005848 |
4 | Q33 | 2.898421 |
5 | Q5 | 2.687361 |
6 | Q35 | 2.308918 |
7 | Q16 | 2.143113 |
8 | Q29 | 1.904551 |
9 | Q24 | 1.583715 |
10 | Q8 | 1.285279 |
Ranking | The Method in This Paper | The Method in Reference [28] |
---|---|---|
1 | Q32 | Q32 |
2 | Q1 | Q1 |
3 | Q17 | Q5 |
4 | Q33 | Q16 |
5 | Q5 | Q24 |
6 | Q35 | Q8 |
7 | Q16 | Q12 |
8 | Q29 | Q23 |
9 | Q24 | Q35 |
10 | Q8 | Q33 |
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Liu, H.; Li, Y.; Cao, Y.; Zeng, Z.; Sidorov, D. Operational Risk Assessment of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy Systems Considering N-1 Accidents. Energies 2020, 13, 1208. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13051208
Liu H, Li Y, Cao Y, Zeng Z, Sidorov D. Operational Risk Assessment of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy Systems Considering N-1 Accidents. Energies. 2020; 13(5):1208. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13051208
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Hua, Yong Li, Yijia Cao, Zilong Zeng, and Denis Sidorov. 2020. "Operational Risk Assessment of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy Systems Considering N-1 Accidents" Energies 13, no. 5: 1208. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13051208