Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Weather Data Collection Problem
3. PV Forecasting Based on Proposed Weather Data Mixing Models
3.1. Weather Data Mixing Models
3.1.1. Raw Weather Data from the Closest WDC
3.1.2. Averaged Weather Data
3.1.3. Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) Model
3.1.4. Inverse Correlation Weighting (ICW) Model
3.2. Similar Day Detection (SDD)
3.3. Proposed Weather Data Mixing Model-Based PV Forecasting Framework
4. Simulation Results and Discussion
4.1. Data Description
4.2. Hyperparameter Tuning
4.3. Day-Ahead PV Forecasting Output
4.4. Seasonal Evaluation
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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PV Plant | PV Capacity (kW) | Location | Weather Data Center (WDC) | Distance |
---|---|---|---|---|
PV Plant 1 | 1000 | Samcheok | 1 | 41.7 |
2 | 35.3 | |||
3 | 46.01 | |||
PV Plant 2 | 40 | Yeoungwol | 1 | 6.01 |
2 | 12.05 | |||
3 | 28.8 | |||
4 | 40.9 | |||
PV Plant 3 | 1000 | Incheon | 1 | 5.7 |
2 | 26.6 | |||
PV Plant 4 | 300 | Hadong | 1 | 26.3 |
2 | 32.8 | |||
3 | 40.9 |
Hyperparameters | LSTM Network |
---|---|
Hidden layers | 2 |
Nodes per layer | 24, 12 |
Activation function | sigmoid, tanh |
No. of epochs (iteration) | 300 |
Optimizer | RMS-prop |
Loss function | MES |
Metrics function | accuracy |
Batch size | 32 |
Validation set | 10% |
Average MAPE (%) | Average RMSE (kW) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PV Plant | Closest | Average | IDW | ICW | Closest | Average | IDW | ICW |
PV plant 1 | 13.92 | 11.40 | 11.52 | 11.64 | 195.03 | 161.93 | 165.86 | 167.09 |
PV plant 2 | 9.41 | 9.16 | 8.57 | 8.81 | 5.20 | 4.79 | 4.26 | 4.65 |
PV plant 3 | 6.70 | 6.35 | 6.41 | 6.25 | 92.43 | 91.18 | 90.37 | 89.69 |
PV plant 4 | 13.12 | 12.79 | 11.89 | 10.48 | 58.01 | 54.87 | 49.05 | 44.01 |
MAPE (%) | RMSE (kWh) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Closest | Average | IDW | ICW | Closest | Average | IDW | ICW | ||
PV Plant 1 | Spring | 10.21 | 10.83 | 10.89 | 10.36 | 140.19 | 155.56 | 157.71 | 145.71 |
Summer | 14.37 | 11.45 | 11.80 | 11.44 | 222.47 | 167.05 | 172.43 | 170.62 | |
Autumn | 10.19 | 11.95 | 11.86 | 10.15 | 143.18 | 192.73 | 194.96 | 144.45 | |
Winter | 11.56 | 11.32 | 11.09 | 10.55 | 167.77 | 161.21 | 185.11 | 148.51 | |
Average | 11.58 | 11.39 | 11.41 | 10.62 | 168.40 | 169.14 | 177.55 | 152.32 | |
PV Plant 2 | Spring | 9.72 | 9.50 | 9.25 | 9.32 | 4.90 | 5.01 | 4.85 | 4.77 |
Summer | 9.94 | 9.01 | 9.49 | 9.27 | 5.53 | 5.20 | 5.49 | 5.08 | |
Autumn | 11.13 | 10.48 | 10.51 | 10.03 | 5.89 | 5.36 | 5.14 | 5.17 | |
Winter | 9.93 | 10.11 | 9.93 | 9.80 | 5.60 | 5.58 | 5.54 | 5.49 | |
Average | 10.18 | 9.77 | 9.60 | 9.60 | 5.48 | 5.28 | 5.25 | 5.12 | |
PV Plant 3 | Spring | 10.37 | 11.69 | 10.61 | 10.92 | 160.40 | 166.81 | 161.61 | 168.57 |
Summer | 9.39 | 9.98 | 9.46 | 9.46 | 145.41 | 149.52 | 145.65 | 146.23 | |
Autumn | 11.48 | 11.37 | 10.77 | 11.77 | 165.48 | 164.31 | 144.86 | 167.88 | |
Winter | 12.55 | 12.28 | 12.03 | 12.32 | 171.67 | 174.70 | 180.51 | 176.13 | |
Average | 10.94 | 11.33 | 10.71 | 11.12 | 160.74 | 163.83 | 158.19 | 164.70 | |
PV Plant 4 | Spring | 11.62 | 10.56 | 10.72 | 9.91 | 53.59 | 48.80 | 48.09 | 45.61 |
Summer | 10.86 | 10.59 | 10.51 | 10.38 | 47.56 | 46.38 | 44.90 | 44.08 | |
Autumn | 10.02 | 9.17 | 9.04 | 8.82 | 40.44 | 40.61 | 37.79 | 37.78 | |
Winter | 10.29 | 10.72 | 10.95 | 10.60 | 46.49 | 48.64 | 49.37 | 47.89 | |
Average | 10.69 | 10.26 | 10.30 | 9.92 | 47.02 | 46.10 | 45.53 | 43.84 |
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Acharya, S.K.; Wi, Y.-M.; Lee, J. Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants. Energies 2021, 14, 2998. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14112998
Acharya SK, Wi Y-M, Lee J. Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants. Energies. 2021; 14(11):2998. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14112998
Chicago/Turabian StyleAcharya, Shree Krishna, Young-Min Wi, and Jaehee Lee. 2021. "Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants" Energies 14, no. 11: 2998. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14112998