Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Methods
3.1. Key Components of the Integrated Framework
3.1.1. Sustainability Themes and Indicators
3.1.2. Dynamic Energy Systems Modeling
- Fleet mix;
- Fuel demand and the share of indigenous renewable resources;
- GHG emissions reduction (well-to-tank, tank-to-wheel, and well-to-wheel emissions);
- Electricity supply capacity and generation cost;
- Consumer costs (fuel use cost, vehicle usage cost, and vehicle capital cost);
- Government tax revenue.
3.1.3. MCDA Framework
- Identify the sustainability themes;
- Create the decision matrix, where each element represents the performance of a policy bundle in each theme;
- Normalize the decision matrix (Four normalization methods have been studied: vector normalization, linear scale transformation (Max–Min) linear scale transformation (Max), and linear scale transformation (Sum));
- Define the ideal and negative ideal solutions;
- Estimate the weighted Euclidean distances from ideal and negative ideal solutions;
- Rank the alternatives based on the performance index (relative closeness to the ideal solution).
3.1.4. Integrated Framework
3.2. Scenario Development
- Baseline: following recent trend: GDP growth: 2.5% until 2030 and 2% after 2030;
- Slow GDP growth: 1% growth until 2030 and 1.5% after 2030;
- High GDP growth driven by tourism: 3% growth until 2030 and 2.5% after 2030.
- Baseline, based on historical trends in changes in energy efficiency (constant efficiency);
- Alternative high-efficiency pathway, where the fuel economy of new vehicles will improve by 20% by 2050 for all vehicle types, and the industrial sector, which will see an average efficiency improvement of 1.5% per year (high efficiency).
- Baseline bundle, based on the assumption that current regulations on vehicle and fuel taxes will remain unchanged until 2050 [66];
- Premium policy bundle incorporating enhanced incentives in terms of continued VAT exemptions for the purchase price of BEVs within both light and heavy vehicle fleets for the duration of the simulation period [66];
- Banning policy bundle, in which the proposed tax scheme is evaluated under a banning condition for the new registration of ICEs and HEVs (with petrol or diesel fuels) from 2025 and, therefore, only the registration of PHEVs and BEVs will be allowed after 2025. Such a banning regulation is part of the Icelandic Government’s Climate Action Plan, albeit set at a later date [67,68].
- G__: BAU GDP Growth 2.5% until 2025, 2% until 2050
- S__: Slow GDP growth 1% until 2025, 1.5% until 2050
- T__: High tourism led GDP growth 3% until 2025, 2.5% until 2050
- _A_: BAU constant energy efficiency based on current trends
- _B_: Max improvements in energy efficiency
- __C: BAU Current fuel and vehicle tax
- __N: New tax proposals on fuel and vehicles
- __X: New tax proposals and ban on ICE/HEV from 2025
4. Results
4.1. Sustainablity Themes, Subthemes, and Indiators
4.2. Energy Systems Development
4.3. Comparing Sustainability Impacts
4.4. MCDA Results
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix B
Norm 1: Vector Normalization | Norm 2: Linear Scale Transformation | Norm 3: Linear Scale Transformation | Norm 4: Linear Scale Transformation | |
---|---|---|---|---|
GAC | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.97 | 0.11 |
SAC | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.98 | 0.33 |
TAC | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.97 | 0.13 |
GAN | 0.41 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
SAN | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.98 | 0.47 |
TAN | 0.44 | 0.28 | 0.97 | 0.25 |
GAX | 0.62 | 0.43 | 0.98 | 0.39 |
SAX | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.99 | 0.61 |
TAX | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.98 | 0.39 |
GBC | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.98 | 0.44 |
SBC | 0.40 | 0.59 | 0.99 | 0.63 |
TBC | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.98 | 0.41 |
GBN | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.98 | 0.58 |
SBN | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.99 | 0.74 |
TBN | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.98 | 0.56 |
GBX | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.99 | 0.74 |
SBX | 0.74 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
TBX | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.99 | 0.72 |
Appendix C
Appendix D
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Sustainability Theme | Sub-Theme | Indicators |
---|---|---|
Social Impacts | Social benefit | Total employment |
Consumer behavior | The share of alternative fuel vehicles | |
Economic Development | Government expenditure/revenue | Government tax revenue–expenditure (subsidies, investment, …) |
Affordable energy price | Household expenditure on electricity and transport | |
Economically efficient energy system | Energy intensity of the economy | |
Environmental Impacts | Wilderness protection and visual pollution | Total impact area of power plants |
Net emissions | GHG emissions from the transport sector | |
Energy Security | Energy reserve | Dynamic reserve/production ratio |
Diversity of energy sources | Diversity in energy supply | |
Energy independence | Proportion of domestic energy sources in total primary energy supply | |
Transition related technical aspects | Fuel switching | Share of alternative fuels in road transportation |
Infrastructure Development | Total number of fast-charging spots and other eco-friendly multi-fuel stations | |
Energy efficiency | Total final energy consumption in transportation per capita |
Social Impacts | Economic Development | Environmental Impacts | Energy Security | Technical Aspect | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Industrial Users | 36% | 18% | 24% | 10% | 13% |
Energy Producers | 13% | 24% | 18% | 36% | 10% |
Decision Makers | 13% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 10% |
Professional Interest Groups | 18% | 10% | 24% | 36% | 13% |
Public | 13% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 10% |
Distribution and transmission | 10% | 18% | 13% | 36% | 24% |
NGOs | 36% | 18% | 24% | 13% | 10% |
Average | 20% | 18% | 25% | 25% | 13% |
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Davidsdottir, B.; Ásgeirsson, E.I.; Fazeli, R.; Gunnarsdottir, I.; Leaver, J.; Shafiei, E.; Stefánsson, H. Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition. Energies 2024, 17, 4266. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174266
Davidsdottir B, Ásgeirsson EI, Fazeli R, Gunnarsdottir I, Leaver J, Shafiei E, Stefánsson H. Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition. Energies. 2024; 17(17):4266. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174266
Chicago/Turabian StyleDavidsdottir, Brynhildur, Eyjólfur Ingi Ásgeirsson, Reza Fazeli, Ingunn Gunnarsdottir, Jonathan Leaver, Ehsan Shafiei, and Hlynur Stefánsson. 2024. "Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition" Energies 17, no. 17: 4266. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174266