Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine
, Oleksandr Borysenko 3,4, Tetiana Kucheryavenko 5, Yuriy Skrylnyk 2, Kateryna Davydenko 2,6 and Jaroslav Holusa 1
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
I read carefully and with interest the manuscript “Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine” submitted for publication in Forests journal.
The manuscript is well written, easy to read. This could be an important tool for those who follow the evolution of the spread of A. planipennis.
The authors make an important contribution on the topic with this manuscript.
As for the improvement of the manuscript, I recommend:
1. the authors to introduce more information about the phenology of A. planipennis in the Introduction chapter.
2. Minor issues:
There are also some very minor issues that need to be corrected:
rows: 291, 308, 314, 331, 345, 347, 352-353, 356, 360, 369, 374, 375, 376, : Please replace the abbreviations fig. and tab. with Figure(s) and Table as required by journal.
row 308: please delete ”и”
Author Response
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Author Response File: 
Author Response.docx
Reviewer 2 Report
The topic of the paper is important and, thus, the paper is timely prepared. However, the paper is very long, has too many details, and it is difficult to read and digest. The text should be shortened. English needs serious work.
Comments for author File: 
Comments.pdf
Author Response
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Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Reviewer 3 Report
Considering the significance of the emerald ash borer in devastating ash-based industry and hard hood forests, the study may provide some useful information on the potential for westward spread across Europe. Hower, the manuscript needs some thorough edits and re-organization before it can be considered further
1) English - Although the English is very decent, there are some fragmented sentences or phrases throughout the manuscript. For example - "1 All known foci of EAB are located in regions where a seasonality. Therefore, the development of the host tree and the pest is adapted to such changes." This is not understandable English. Also, please change the word "penetration" to "invasion" throughout the manuscript. Please change "wood-boring" to "phloem-boring". Emerald ash borer does not bore into wood, but cambium tissues.
2. Science - Previous studies by Dang et al. (2021) and Dang et al. (2022) have clearly demonstrated that distribution of susceptible host trees is one of the key biotic factors determining the geographic distribution of emerald ash borer. In fact, a retrospective analysis showed that it is more accurate to predict emerald ash borer's distribution than using climatic factors. Please discuss why you don't consider the distribution of Susceptible ash trees in Europe. Please cite Dang et al. (2021) Journal of Ecology DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13822 - Introduced plants induce outbreaks of a native pest and facilitate invasion in the plants' native range: Evidence from theemerald ash borer"
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Reviewer 4 Report
I have read the manuscript with a great interest. It is useful and well-written.
General comment.
MaxEnt models of the potential ranges of invasive pests based on combination of many parameters are often too “optimistic”. They predict that the pest will invade only the territories with the climate similar to the climate of the territories which are already invaded by the pest. But it fact the most of climatic factors are not limiting for this pest. Therefore, the pest can establish in the territories which have quite different combination of climatic factors. For example, the MaxEnt model of EAB range by Flø et al. (2015) was too “optimistic”: current range of the pest is much more extensive then it was predicted by this model. I would prefer more simple models based on 1 or maximum 2 really limiting parameters. But it is only my opinion. MaxEnt models based on combination of many parameters are widely used.
Specific comments:
Line 40 Please, correct “Primorsk” to “Primorsky”.
Line 50 “the Krasnodar Krai” – Please, delete “the”
Lines 76, 77 Please, delete spaces after numbers in references here and all over the manuscript.
Line 83 The terms “univoltine and semivoltine”do not describe the situation adequately. The life cycle is 1-year or 2-year. Please, correct it all over the manuscript.
Lines 103-104 Yes! Assessment of fragmentation and density of forest stands and the impact of these characteristics on EAB distribution is a brilliant idea.
Line 110 “the EAB” Please, delete “the”.
Line 116 There are some new data on the distribution of EAB in European Russia. The pest is quickly spreading in Krasnodar Territory:
http://www.uooptkk.ru/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ясеневая-изумрудная-узкотелая-златка-в-Краснодарском-крае_2022-1.pdf
And it was detected in Saratov Region:
A.N. Volodchenko, E.S. Sergeeva. The emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) at the southeastern border of its European range / 16th Congress of the Russian Entomological Society. Moscow, August 22–26, 2022. Abstract book. 164 p.
Lines 119, 120. Please, describe this comparison clearer. How did you compare seasonal development of A. planipennis and A. biguttatus?
Line 122, 124 “Annual growing degree days (AGDD) for a base temperature of 10 122 C” is written twice.
Line 134 methodby – misprint
Line 139 “the European part of Russia” - Please, delete “the”.
Line 192. [. - misprint
Line 194 Please, check the size of the font. It seems that the letters after “EAB” are bigger.
Line 199. “from the earliest laid eggs” – There are no data that the duration of development depends on the time of oviposition. It is only a hypothesis. The period of oviposition is short: about 2-3 weeks. And it seems that the condition of development: the condition of the host tree, weather factors etc. have more impact on the duration of the developent.
Line 200-201. “The first one [cohort] is represented by individuals that develop from the earliest laid eggs, reach the 4th instar by the end of the growing season, and after wintering also turn early into beetles.” – It is not correct. The life cycle is always 2-year in Moscow. All individuals overwinter twice: the first one as a larva in its larval gallry, and the second one as a prepupa (J-shaped larva) in its pupal cell [Orlova-Bienkowskaja, M.J.; Bienkowski, A.O. The life cycle of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis in European Russia and com-699 parisons with its life cycles in Asia and North America. Agric. For. Entomol. 2016, 18, 182–188.].
The first cohort occur only in the very warm regions, e.g. Tianjin (China).
Lines 247, 248 and 249 – It is obvious that the coldest months are winter month, and the hottest months are summer months in North hemisphere.
Line 419 F. excelsior – Genera names should be written in full in the beginning of sentences: “Fraxinus excelsior”.
Author Response
Reviewer #4
Dear reviewer,
the manuscript “Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine” is corrected according to the comments and advice of reviewers.
comments of Reviewer #4:
All corrections are shown in Edit mode.
The text is shortened.
MaxEnt models of the potential ranges of invasive pests based on combination of many parameters are often too “optimistic”. They predict that the pest will invade only the territories with the climate similar to the climate of the territories which are already invaded by the pest. But it fact the most of climatic factors are not limiting for this pest. Therefore, the pest can establish in the territories which have quite different combination of climatic factors. For example, the MaxEnt model of EAB range by Flø et al. (2015) was too “optimistic”: current range of the pest is much more extensive then it was predicted by this model. I would prefer more simple models based on 1 or maximum 2 really limiting parameters. But it is only my opinion. MaxEnt models based on combination of many parameters are widely used.
Specific comments:
Line 40 Please, correct “Primorsk” to “Primorsky”. corrected
Line 50 “the Krasnodar Krai” – Please, delete “the” corrected
Lines 76, 77 Please, delete spaces after numbers in references here and all over the manuscript. corrected
Line 83 The terms “univoltine and semivoltine”do not describe the situation adequately. The life cycle is 1-year or 2-year. Please, correct it all over the manuscript. corrected
Lines 103-104 Yes! Assessment of fragmentation and density of forest stands and the impact of these characteristics on EAB distribution is a brilliant idea.
– Yes, we plan to do it, however, in 2022 we cannot get to this territory because of the war. We can only use the data of the previous 2 years.
Line 110 “the EAB” Please, delete “the”. corrected
Line 116 There are some new data on the distribution of EAB in European Russia. The pest is quickly spreading in Krasnodar Territory:
– this paper is mentioned in the reference list
- Shchurov, V.I.; Zamotailov, A.S. The first findings of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in the Krasnodar krai. Proceedings of the XXIV International Scientific Conference "Biological diversity of the Caucasus and Southern Russia". (Magas, November 17-20, 2022). Magas, Makhachkala: ALEF Publishing House, 2022, 558–565. ISBN 978-5-00212-129-8
And it was detected in Saratov Region:
A.N. Volodchenko, E.S. Sergeeva. The emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) at the southeastern border of its European range / 16th Congress of the Russian Entomological Society. Moscow, August 22–26, 2022. Abstract book. 164 p.
We know this publication and the paper but our modeling was carried out earlier than we read it.
Volodchenko, A. N. (2022). New Data on the Southeastern Border of the Invasive Range of Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in the European Part of Russia. Russian Journal of Biological Invasions, 13(4), 454-461. (S2075111722040166.pdf)
Volgograd, Voronezh and Astrakhan were included into modeling.
Lines 119, 120. Please, describe this comparison clearer. How did you compare seasonal development of A. planipennis and A. biguttatus?
This part was shortened after the first review due to the advices of the reviewers to shorten the text. We studied the seasonal development of A. biguttatus in 2004–2010, including rearing in the laboratory at a controlled temperature. During the year, stumps (in the forest) and branches (in the forest and in the laboratory) were periodically debarked, the head capsules of the larvae were measured and their instar composition was evaluated. Our data are consistent with those obtained by Reed et al. 2018. Considering also the data of Orlova-Bienkowskaja (2016) and our data (Kucheryavenko et al. 2020), it can be assumed that A. planipennis develops according to a similar pattern. We plan to write a separate article on the seasonal development of these borers.
Или уберем кусок фразы, а источники добавим в дискашн, или чтото добавим
Line 122, 124 “Annual growing degree days (AGDD) for a base temperature of 10 122 °C” is written twice. corrected
Line 134 methodby – misprint corrected
Line 139 “the European part of Russia” - Please, delete “the”. corrected
Line 192. [. – misprint corrected
Line 194 Please, check the size of the font. It seems that the letters after “EAB” are bigger. corrected
Line 199. “from the earliest laid eggs” – There are no data that the duration of development depends on the time of oviposition. It is only a hypothesis. The period of oviposition is short: about 2-3 weeks. And it seems that the condition of development: the condition of the host tree, weather factors etc. have more impact on the duration of the development.
– The research of Orlova-Bienkowskaja (2016) and our data (Kucheryavenko et al. 2020) showed the presence of two groups of larvae that overwintered at younger and older instars, respectively. The older ones pupate in spring, while the younger ones develop until autumn and overwinter again. At the beginning of summer, the younger larvae are absent. Why? Because EAB is present in the region not so long ago? We started studying this insect only at the end of 2019...
Line 200-201. “The first one [cohort] is represented by individuals that develop from the earliest laid eggs, reach the 4th instar by the end of the growing season, and after wintering also turn early into beetles.” –
It is not correct. The life cycle is always 2-year in Moscow. All individuals overwinter twice: the first one as a larva in its larval gallery, and the second one as a prepupa (J-shaped larva) in its pupal cell [Orlova-Bienkowskaja, M.J.; Bienkowski, A.O. The life cycle of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis in European Russia and comparisons with its life cycles in Asia and North America. Agric. For. Entomol. 2016, 18, 182–188.]. The first cohort occur only in the very warm regions, e.g. Tianjin (China).
We did not insist that EAB in Ukraine has a 1-year development cycle. We say that there are cohorts that develop from eggs laid at the beginning of the flight period and from those laid at the end of this period.
For example, caterpillars of Dendrolimus pini overwinters in 2 to 6 instar. In a warm year, they can complete development after one overwintering, and in a normal year, after two overwintering.
The extended flight of EAB makes it possible, under favorable conditions, to develop by 1-year cycle.
On the other hand, it can be assumed that representatives of the early and late cohorts are offspring produced in different years, as an even and odd generation of Aradus cinnamomeus, or as tribes of the Melolontha melolontha.
Lines 247, 248 and 249 – It is obvious that the coldest months are winter month, and the hottest months are summer months in North hemisphere.
– the coldest months may include, for example, December, January and February or January, February and March, and the warmest months may not be consecutive. Especially the driest or wettest months may not be in a row. The developers of MaxEnt program have provided for such cases.
O’Donnell, M.S.; Ignizio, D.A. Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States; Data Series 691; U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, USA, 2012. Available online: https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/691/ds691.pdf
Line 419 F. excelsior – Genera names should be written in full in the beginning of sentences: “Fraxinus excelsior”. corrected
Thank you very much for your assistance.
Valentyna Meshkova
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Reviewer 5 Report
Generally:
The English needs improvement. For example: it is not THE North America, but just North America.
North America should not be abbreviated as N. America.
There was some doubt (and discussion between Russian experts) whether EAB would have a large impact on Fraxinus excelsior or would prefer F. pennsylvanica. You state that both species are infested in Ukraine. Can you say more about the ratio of infestation between the two tree species?
Line 29: in all ranges EAB is adapted to the seasonal temperature variation: really adapted or is survival at least supported by its long cryptic larval stage?
Line 40: note that though Mongolia and Taiwan are indicated as a part of the native range of EAB in many articles, there are no documented records for these countries available (see: Orlova-Bienkowskaja MJ, & Volkovitsh MG (2018) Are native ranges of the most destructive invasive pests well known? A case study of the native range of the emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). Biological Invasions, 20(5), 1275-1286. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-017-1626-7).
Line 45/46: „European part of Russia (hereinafter referred to as Europe)“ à this could create misunderstandings. I would suggest to always use „European part of Russia“
Line 72: which models? Be more explicit.
Line 77: distribution instead of spread
Line 78: Webb instead of Web
Line 149/141: why did you choose these latitudes?
Line 175/176: Table 4 needs a better explanation in the caption.
Line 179: Why did you use a software for quantitative paleontology?
Line 188: what do you mean by Midland?
Line 194: Table 5 needs a better explanation in the caption.
Line 201: overwintering instead or wintering
Line 221 – 223: improve sentence (sequence of emergence, put mid-June emergences together)
Line 227: what do you mean by „are extended in time“? When and where?
Line 235: too low temperatures instead of heat availability and winter frost.
Line 253: What do you mean by Midland (America)? (Also in other parts of the manuscript)
Line 262 – 264: “At the same time, 690 mm of precipitation per year are in Moscow, and 520 mm in the east of Ukraine, that is, trees in the latter case are more susceptible to pests.” Why? Certain fungi (which are by definition also pests) for example are favoured by higher humidity.
Line 276 – 277: what do you mean by with each only given variable?
Figure 2: the readability of the numbers for the regions is very poor.
Line 336: Taiwan and Mongolia: see comment for Line 40.
Line 337: point of detection is Troitskoe in Russia instead of point of detection of Troitskoe is Russia
Line 373: replace Cyrillic letters
Chapters 3.2 and 3.3 are very cumbersome to read.
The discussion is not straightforward and again, very cumbersome to read, some parts e.g. about temperature comparisons would probably fit better into the results.
Line 567: sentence not finished – with instead of where?
For the results, I think it would be much better to put the comparisons in a table or present it graphically. May be this is done in the supplementary material, but I cannot access it, the link is not working or not yet enabled.
Author Response
Reviewer #5
Dear reviewer,
the manuscript “Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine” is corrected according to the comments and advice of reviewers.
comments of Reviewer #5:
All corrections are shown in Edit mode.
The text is shortened.
To improve English we will use the services of an editorial service after reviewers will agree with the contents.
– North America should not be abbreviated as N. America. corrected
There was some doubt (and discussion between Russian experts) whether EAB would have a large impact on Fraxinus excelsior or would prefer F. pennsylvanica. You state that both species are infested in Ukraine. Can you say more about the ratio of infestation between the two tree species?
- pennsylvanica grows mainly in forest belts and plantings of cities, that is, in more lit and warm places, and F. excelsior is more common in the forest. We first found EAB in open areas, in F. pennsylvanica, and in 2020, when it spread in the Lugansk region, the population parameters were almost the same - see a paper below, some fragments are translated from Russian.
Meshkova, V.L.; Kucheryavenko, T.V.; Skrylnik, Y.E.; Zinchenko, O.V.; Borysenko, A.I. Beginning of the spread of Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) on the territory of Ukraine. Proc. St. Petersburg For. Tech. Acad. 2021a, 236, 163–184. (in Russian)
“The galleries and larvae of EAB were found in trees of both Fraxinus excelsior and F. pennsylvanica (Table 1). The absence of differences in the population of these ash species in plantations was confirmed statistically (Mann-Whitney test: U=38.5, Z=0.13; p=0.89), including for individual forest units...
The average EBA density was 0.6 ± 0.07 and 0.7 ± 0.09 larvae/dm2, in F. pennsylvanica and F. excelsior respectively, and did not differ significantly from each other (Kruskal's test – Wallis χ2(df=1)=0.161, p=0.6874).
At the same time, EAB inhabited only the young ash trees, plantations with low density, trees on the edges and along the perimeter of small tracts or forest belts. During the mass flight, the adults of EAB passed maturation feeding only on the foliage of green ash trees. The exit holes of EAB were found only on F. pennsylvanica trees and were absent on all examined F. excelsior trees. This may be due either to the fact that, at a relatively low density of populations, the EAB inhabited a more preferred species or to a reduced survival rate of larvae during development in common ash trees, which will be studied further.”
To regret, in 2022 the war prevented us to get to the forest and the next year it would be dangerous because of mines in the territory.
Line 29: in all ranges EAB is adapted to the seasonal temperature variation: really adapted or is survival at least supported by its long cryptic larval stage?
Perhaps my English is imperfect, I mean not temperature fluctuations, but its course in spring. The dates of stable temperature transition over certain thresholds (particularly over 5°C, and 10°C) are important criteria for comparing different populations... If EAB infests the new area passively, then individuals will survive with development synchronized with the timing of the host plant development.
The dates of the beginning of the EAB flight and the dates of starting hibernation are different in different regions. If a beetle emerges before the foliage appears, the beetle will not have a possibility for maturation feeding. Older larvae that resumed development earlier will turn into beetles when there is still no foliage. Larvae can resume development only after the start of sap flow, and its timing in each region and in each locality depends on air temperature, the degree of freezing of the soil and the rate of its thawing. The sap flow in Ukraine usually starts in every forest after a stable temperature transition over 5°C, and the foliage of the main trees appears after a stable temperature transition over 10°C.
Line 40: note that though Mongolia and Taiwan are indicated as a part of the native range of EAB in many articles, there are no documented records for these countries available (see: Orlova-Bienkowskaja MJ, & Volkovitsh MG (2018) Are native ranges of the most destructive invasive pests well known? A case study of the native range of the emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). Biological Invasions, 20(5), 1275-1286. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-017-1626-7). corrected
Line 45/46: „European part of Russia (hereinafter referred to as Europe)“ à this could create misunderstandings. I would suggest to always use „European part of Russia“ corrected
Line 72: which models? Be more explicit. corrected
Line 77: distribution instead of spread corrected
Line 78: Webb instead of Web corrected
Line 149/141: why did you choose these latitudes?
For modeling, we have taken the entire territory of Ukraine and a small part of Europe to the west of it, in approximately the same latitude range - Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
Bioclimatic variables representing annual trends in temperature, precipitation, and climate ranges were evaluated for grid cell at a resolution of 2.5 arc-minutes (approximately 3 km2). For analysis, we chose within these limits the most northern, southern, western and eastern points for which it was possible to analyze long-term meteorological data.
Line 175/176: Table 4 needs a better explanation in the caption.
Table 4. Geographical diversity in native (Asia) and invasive EAB ranges (North America and Europe) as well as an area for EAB prediction.
All points of EAB findings in Asia, North America, and Europe (including European Russia and Ukraine) as well as selected 70 points from the territory of EAB prediction by our modeling are presented in the supplement (Table S1). In Table 4, the limits for latitude, longitude, and elevation (altitude, m a.s.l.) for these locations are mentioned.
Line 179: Why did you use a software for quantitative paleontology?
All statistical calculations were made by the MaxEnt program. Boxplots representing the ranges of the bioclimatic variables in different ranges of EAB are built using the statistical software package PAST. This program solves a wide range of tasks and does not require licensing.
By the way, Boxplots can also be built by means of Excel. (an example from our other paper)
Line 188: what do you mean by Midland?
Discua Duarte [41] studied EAB phenology in Midland and Cincinnati in 2011 and 2012. He concluded that this insect had 1-year development cycle in Midland and 2-year cycle in Cincinnati. Coordinates are mentioned in Table 1.
Discua Duarte, S.A. Characterizing prepupal diapause and adult emergence phenology of emerald ash borer. Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University. 2013.
Line 194: Table 5 needs a better explanation in the caption.
Added to methods. lines 133–141
For detail characteristics, 12 points were chosen (Table 1), For each of these points, mean monthly air temperature and precipitation were used (Table S2), and additional climatic parameters were evaluated, particularly presented in Table 5.
Among these points, the seasonal development of EAB was studied in detail in three points from China [3, 43], three points from USA [41, 45], one point from Russian Federation [42], and one point from Ukraine [54, 67]. Two more points (Kharkiv and Luhansk, Ukraine) were chosen because EAB was found in respective administrative regions. Lviv (Ukraine) and Prague (Czech Republic) were chosen because they are located at almost the same latitude as Kharkiv but westward.
A note is added to Table 5.
Line 201: overwintering instead or wintering corrected
Line 221 – 223: improve sentence (sequence of emergence, put mid-June emergences together) corrected
Line 227: what do you mean by „are extended in time“? When and where?
The date of the start of larval development after winter differs even within the same plantation or tree. The larvae do not pupate simultaneously, and the beetles do not emerge simultaneously. Therefore, by autumn, the instar composition of the larvae is diverse. We see this phenomenon in many insects of the temperate zone.
For example, caterpillars of Dendrolimus pini overwinters in 2 to 6 instar. In a warm year, they can complete development after one overwintering, and in a normal year, after two overwintering.
Some insects slow down development in the second half of the summer because they are adapted to hibernate at a certain stage as Calliteara pudibunda.
Here, EAB can hibernate only at the larval stage, but the larvae can be of different ages.
The extended flight of EAB makes it possible, under favorable conditions, to develop by 1-year cycle if climate warming continues.
Line 235: too low temperatures instead of heat availability and winter frost. corrected
Line 253: What do you mean by Midland (America)? (Also in other parts of the manuscript)
Discua Duarte studied EAB phenology in Midland and Cincinnati in 2011 and 2012. He concluded that this insect had 1-year development in Midland and 2-year development in Cincinnati. Coordinates are mentioned in Table 1.
Discua Duarte, S.A. Characterizing prepupal diapause and adult emergence phenology of emerald ash borer. Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University. 2013.
Line 262 – 264: “At the same time, 690 mm of precipitation per year are in Moscow, and 520 mm in the east of Ukraine, that is, trees in the latter case are more susceptible to pests.” Why? Certain fungi (which are by definition also pests) for example are favoured by higher humidity.
520 mm of precipitation is not enough for good forest growth. Lugansk region presents the southern limit of forest existence, the so-called Steppe zone. In Moscow, the humidity is higher, there is a Forest zone. EAB prefers sparse stands and warmer and drier conditions.
Maybe that's why EAB entered Ukraine not from the north (from Belgorod), but from the east, and maybe that's why, contrary to forecasts, it did not enter Belarus and Baltic countries.
Line 276 – 277: what do you mean by with each only given variable?
«The curves show how the POP changes as each environmental variable is varied, keeping all other environmental variables at their average sample value.»
This phrase and the curves are taken from the description of MaxEnt output. It shows how the variables were chosen. The supplement contains several groups of curves. In the article, we have shown examples according to the 2 most important bioindicators set by the MaxEnt model. The model was built for several hours, the output takes many pages, and one can use the links to clarify individual points. Some fragments are presented in supplements 3 and 4. The main result of the model is mapped (Figure 1).
Figure 2: the readability of the numbers for the regions is very poor. corrected
.
Line 336: Taiwan and Mongolia: see comment for Line 40. corrected
Line 337: point of detection is Troitskoe in Russia instead of point of detection of Troitskoe is Russia
corrected
Line 373: replace Cyrillic letters corrected
Chapters 3.2 and 3.3 are very cumbersome to read. tried to correct
Line 567: sentence not finished – with instead of where? corrected
For the results, I think it would be much better to put the comparisons in a table or present it graphically. May be this is done in the supplementary material, but I cannot access it, the link is not working or not yet enabled.
We submitted all supplements along with the manuscript.
Thank you very much for your assistance.
Valentyna Meshkova
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Round 2
Reviewer 2 Report
I still think that the MS is too lengthy - it is difficult to read. Maybe the authors could try to move most of comparison between in and out of ranges into a table? I am not sure it will be great, but might be easier for readers.
As I menthioned earlier I cannot understand why Prague is involved in comparoson between in and out of the range. Why not Arctica Madagascar? It simply not yet there. We can compare with reagion in China or even N.America close to the range borther, where the species realy COUD be but did not go. With Prague or Arctica it is different - it could not be there.
I do not insist, just thoughts. It is a right of authors to consider these thoughts or not.
Otherwise the MS is improved.
Comments for author File: Comments.pdf
Author Response
Reviewer #2
Dear reviewer,
the manuscript “Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine” is corrected according to the comments and advice of reviewers.
comments of Reviewer #2:
All corrections are shown in Edit mode.
To improve English we will use the services of an editorial service after reviewers will agree with the contents.
– I still think that the MS is too lengthy - it is difficult to read. Maybe the authors could try to move most of comparison between in the and out of ranges into a table? I am not sure it will be great, but might be easier for readers.
An answer: The tables are presented in the supplement. We tried to shorten the text mor.
– As I mentioned earlier I cannot understand why Prague is involved in comparison on between in and out of the range. Why not Arctica Madagascar? It simply not yet there. We can compare with regions in China or even N. America is close to the range border, where the species really COULD be but did not go. With Prague or Arctica it is different - it could not be there.
An answer:
Researchers who model the distribution of EAB take fragments of the territory (Northern Europe, Great Britain, Caucasus).
For example:
Orlova-Bienkowskaja, M.J.; Bieńkowski, A.O. Low heat availability could limit the potential spread of the Emerald ash borer to Northern Europe (Prognosis Based on Growing Degree Days per Year). Insects 2022a, 13(1), 52.
Orlova-Bienkowskaja, M. J.; Bieńkowski, A.O. Southern range expansion of the Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis, in Russia threatens ash and olive trees in the Middle East and Southern Europe. Forests 2022b, 13(4), 541.
Flø, D.; Krokene, P.; Økland, B. Invasion potential of Agrilus planipennis and other Agrilus beetles in Europe: Import pathways of deciduous wood chips and MaxEnt analyses of potential distribution areas. EPPO Bulletin 2015, 45(2), 259–268.
Webb, C.R.; Mona, T.; Gilligan, C.A. Predicting the potential for spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) in Great Britain: What can we learn from other affected areas? Plants People Planet 2021, 3, 402–413.
For modeling, we have taken the entire territory of Ukraine and a small part of Europe to the west of it, in approximately the same latitude range - Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and the Czech Republic. We explained in the discussion that many of the predictions of other authors using other methods did not come true and we intend to test the characteristics of stands. But we started with climate.
Thank you very much for your assistance.
Valentyna Meshkova
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Reviewer 3 Report
The authors have made a through revision of the previous manuscript. The manuscript has been improved a great deal. I only had some minor editorial comments in the Abstract:
line 22 - please consider changing the subsentence "that invaded....and European Russia." to " that has become a serious invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees in North America and i European Russia since early 2000s."
Line 22 - please change "its viability" to "its survival" or "geographic distribution".
Line 30 - please change "excellent accuracy" to "high accuracy".
Author Response
Reviewer #3
Dear reviewer,
the manuscript “Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine” is corrected according to the comments and advice of reviewers.
comments of Reviewer #3:
All corrections are shown in Edit mode.
line 22 - please consider changing the subsentence "that invaded....and European Russia." to " that has become a serious invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees in North America and European Russia since early 2000s." corrected
Line 22 - please change "its viability" to "its survival" or "geographic distribution". corrected
Line 30 - please change "excellent accuracy" to "high accuracy". corrected
Thank you very much for your assistance.
Valentyna Meshkova
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Reviewer 5 Report
After a thorough check of the manuscript, I still found some issues that should be addressed/corrected:
Line 22: delete that at beginning of sentence
Line 29: and outside of them (not outside them)
Line 30: (ii) The MaxEnt model
Line 50: across North America (delete the)
Line 101: parts vary in the same forest (delete even)
Line 115: spread instead of distribution
Line 116: its participation in forest stands: what does that mean?
Line 133: For detailed characteristics (not detail characteristics)
Table 1: Add Texas in relation to Midland; the caption of the table is not sufficient – in general, the tables need better captions, explaining what they show
Line 194: European Russia instead of Europe
Line 196/197: European Russia
Line 198/199: why “including European Russia and Ukraine”? there are no EAB findings so far outside European Russia and Ukraine.
Line 213: Add Texas after Midland
Line 225: European Russia instead of Europe
Line 258: the USA was correct (in the revision, “the” has been wrongly deleted)
Line 262: the analyzed part of Europe
Line 333: maximum instead of maximal
Line 339: eastern Ukraine
Line 345: spread instead of distribution
Line 366: eastern most
Line 369: the North American continent (“the” was correct)
Line 373: In the European part of Russia
Line 381: in Europe: which part?
Table 7: add column with information about absence, presence or predicted
Line 402: European Russia?
Line 409 and 417: with EAB presence (delete the)
Line 424: was for the European part; … where EAB appearance
Line 441: in the European part…
451/452: where EAB presence
Line 479: it will likely spread
Line 484: Thus instead of So
Line 494: in June
Line 507: European Russia
Line 515: of EAB
Line 522: why the same values?
Line 531: from 4 to 11 June
Line 534: EAB’s reproductive system
Line: 562: spread instead of distribution (twice)
Line 595: “cannot” is too strong
Line 597/598: did so far not instead of do not
Line 600: close bracket after elevation
Line 610: So…: According to the publications above?
Line 634: spread instead of distribution
Author Response
Reviewer #5
Dear reviewer,
the manuscript “Potential Westward Spread of Emerald Ash Borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) from Eastern Ukraine” is corrected according to your comments and advice.
All corrections are shown in Edit mode.
Line 22: delete that at beginning of sentence – corrected
Line 29: and outside of them (not outside them) corrected
Line 30: (ii) The MaxEnt model corrected
Line 50 (48!): across North America (delete the) corrected
Line 101 (96!): parts vary in the same forest (delete even) corrected
Line 115 (111!): spread instead of distribution corrected
Line 116: its participation in forest stands: what does that mean? – proportion of ash in the tree species composition
Line 133 (129!): For detailed characteristics (not detail characteristics) corrected
Table 1: Add Texas in relation to Midland; the caption of the table is not sufficient –
in general, the tables need better captions, explaining what they show
The explanation is given in lines 129–136 before Table 1
For detailed characteristics, 12 points were chosen (Table 1). For each of these points, mean monthly air temperature and precipitation were used (Table S2), and additional climatic parameters were evaluated. Among these points, the seasonal development of EAB was studied in detail in three points from China [3, 43], three points from the USA [41, 45], one point from Russian Federation [42], and one point from Ukraine [54, 67]. Two more points (Kharkiv and Luhansk, Ukraine) were chosen because EAB was found in respective administrative regions. Lviv (Ukraine) and Prague (Czech Republic) were chosen because they are located at almost the same latitude as Kharkiv but westward.
..... points where EAB is detected, predicted, or not predicted
Captions are corrected, and the column added to Tables 1, 5 and 7
Line 194 (189!): European Russia instead of Europe corrected
Line 196/197: European Russia corrected
Line 198/199: why “including European Russia and Ukraine”? there are no EAB findings so far outside European Russia and Ukraine. corrected
Line 213: Add Texas after Midland corrected
Line 225: European Russia instead of Europe corrected
Line 258: the USA was correct (in the revision, “the” has been wrongly deleted) corrected
Line 262: the analyzed part of Europe corrected
Line 333 (325!): maximum instead of maximal corrected
Line 339: eastern Ukraine corrected
Line 345 (337!): spread instead of distribution corrected
Line 366 (357!): eastern most corrected
Line 369 (360!): the North American continent (“the” was correct) corrected
Line 373 (365!): In the European part of Russia corrected
Line 381: in Europe: which part? corrected
Table 7: add column with information about absence, presence or predicted corrected
Line 402: European Russia? not!!! Kharkiv (East Ukraine), Lviv (West Ukraine), Prague (CR) are on the European continent, at the same latitude but with different longitude and continentality (difference between the temperature of the hottest and the coldest months). It affects the synchrony between many insects and host-tree foliage development.
Host-tree buds begin to develop only after the start of sap flow. The sap flow of trees begins after the soil thaws at the depth of the roots.
In the east, the soil freezes more strongly. The dates of the hatch of foliage-browsing insects overwintering in the egg stage depend on air temperature. In the east, the larvae hatch when the buds are just beginning to open, the leaves are small, high in nitrogen, and almost free of phenols and tannins. This is favorable for larvae survival, and besides, the larvae are more harmful if the future shoot is consumed in the bud. In the west, larvae hatch when the leaf is more mature. Feeding them is less favorable for larvae. We still know little about the rate of spring resumption of the development of EAB larvae, but we assume that there are some relations here as well.
Line 409 and 417: with EAB presence (delete the) corrected
Line 424: was for the European part; … where EAB appearance corrected
Line 441: in the European part… corrected
451/452: where EAB presence corrected
Line 479: it will likely spread corrected
Line 484: Thus instead of So corrected
Line 494 (464?): in June corrected
Line 507 (477?): European Russia corrected
Line 515: of EAB corrected
Line 522 (489!): why the same values?
Therefore, in the same months, different EAB stages or instars prevail and react differently to environmental factors, such as excess or lack of moisture.
Line 531: from 4 to 11 June corrected
Line 534: EAB’s reproductive system corrected
Line: 562 (530): spread instead of distribution (twice) corrected
Line 595: “cannot” is too strong corrected
Line 597/598: did so far not instead of do not corrected
Line 600 (567!): close bracket after elevation corrected
Line 610 (576): So…: According to the publications above? corrected
Line 634: spread instead of distribution corrected
Thank you very much for your assistance.
Valentyna Meshkova
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
