Is It Possible to Predict a Forest Insect Outbreak? Backtesting Using Remote Sensing Data
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Field Study Locations and Characterization of the Study Areas
- (1)
- The Siberian silk moth D. sibiricus is a large butterfly with a wingspan of 60–80 mm in the female and 40–60 mm in the male. Its color varies from light yellowish brown or light gray to almost black. Females lay eggs on needles of coniferous trees, mainly in the lower part of the crown. In one clutch, there are usually several dozen eggs (up to 200), and in total, a female can lay up to 800 eggs; however, most often, the fertility does not exceed 200–300 eggs. The caterpillars feed on needles of almost all coniferous species but prefer fir Abies sibirica Ledeb, spruce Picea obovata Ledeb., and larch Larix sibirica Ldb. [35,36,37].
- (2)
- The white mottled sawyer M. urussovi is a large beetle with a black body and appendages and with brighter yellowish apices of the elytra. It lives within the geographic range of dark coniferous forests and prefers A. sibirica and P. obovata. It is one of the most formidable pests that cause considerable damage to coniferous forests of Siberia. Its larvae develop under the bark and in the wood of coniferous trees for 2, or less often, 3 years, although under favorable conditions, they can go through the developmental cycle within 1 year. Within their geographic range, these beetles inhabit coniferous, less often mixed, forests dominated by fir A. sibirica and/or spruce P. obovata as well as in the cutting areas and coniferous stands that are damaged by D. sibiricus and Lymantria dispar L. M. urussovi also occurs in mountain coniferous forests, usually at an altitude of up to 2000 m above sea level. There are known outbreaks of M. urussovi covering territories of tens and hundreds of thousands of hectares that have led to massive suppression of fir forests [38,39].
- (3)
- The four-eyed fir bark beetle (P. proximus Blandford) is a species of bark beetle. It is a dangerous invasive dendrophagous pest of fir A. sibirica. The penetration of P. proximus into taiga ecosystems of Siberia and the formation of P. proximus outbreak foci in them represent the only known case of large-scale insect invasion in this territory today. It damages A. sibirica, and less often, P. obovata and P. sibirica. P. proximus is one of the main causes of the recent large-scale drying out of Siberian fir forests. In zones of outbreak of these beetles, there is a decrease in the productivity of dark coniferous forests [40,41,42].
2.2. Methods
- -
- Products MOD11A1 and MYD11A1, Land surface temperature LST. This parameter correlates well with meteorological observations of air temperature. The observations of the parameter are daily, and spatial resolution is 1 × 1 km.
- -
- Initial red and near infrared spectral channels for calculating the NDVI vegetation index contained in products MOD09Q1 and MYD09Q1. These are an 8-day composite (cleaned and sampled data for a period of 8 days) and the spatial resolution is 250 × 250 m.
2.3. Data Collection
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Kovalev, A.; Tarasova, O.; Soukhovolsky, V.; Ivanova, Y. Is It Possible to Predict a Forest Insect Outbreak? Backtesting Using Remote Sensing Data. Forests 2024, 15, 1458. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15081458
Kovalev A, Tarasova O, Soukhovolsky V, Ivanova Y. Is It Possible to Predict a Forest Insect Outbreak? Backtesting Using Remote Sensing Data. Forests. 2024; 15(8):1458. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15081458
Chicago/Turabian StyleKovalev, Anton, Olga Tarasova, Vladislav Soukhovolsky, and Yulia Ivanova. 2024. "Is It Possible to Predict a Forest Insect Outbreak? Backtesting Using Remote Sensing Data" Forests 15, no. 8: 1458. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15081458