Day-Ahead Forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand with Deep Neural Networks †
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
Research Gap and Contribution
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Data Pre-Processing
3.1.1. Data Transformation
3.1.2. Data Partitioning and Normalization
3.2. Neural Networks
3.2.1. Technical Background
3.2.2. Features
3.2.3. Final Configuration
3.3. Forecast Post-Processing
3.4. Model Performance Evaluation
4. Results and Discussions
4.1. Use Case and Data Analysis
4.2. Simulation Results
4.2.1. Neural Network Convergence Analysis
4.2.2. Two-Weeks Period Forecast Example
4.2.3. Test Subset Performances
4.2.4. Feature Importance
4.3. Forecast Timing and Real-Time Capabilities
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
EMS | Energy management system |
EV | Electric vehicle |
MAE | Mean-absolute error |
MSE | Mean-square error |
LSTM | Long short-term memory |
LSTM-B | Long short-term memory-Base |
LSTM-C | Long short-term memory-Calendar |
LSTM-W | Long short-term memory-Weather |
Relu | Rectified linear unit |
RMSE | Root-mean-square error |
RNN | Recurrent neural network |
Tanh | Hyperbolic tangent |
VIANN | Variance-based feature Importance in Artificial Neural Networks |
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Class | Feature | LSTM-B | LSTM-C | LSTM-W |
---|---|---|---|---|
Load | EV charging demand [kW] | X | X | X |
Average weekly EV demand [kW] | X | X | ||
Calendar | Quarter-hour number [/] | X | X | |
Day number [/] | X | X | ||
Binary working day [0 or 1] | X | X | ||
Binary Holiday [0 or 1] | X | X | ||
Weather | Daily temperature [] | X | ||
Daily rainfall [mm/h] | X |
Parameters | LSTM-B | LSTM-C | LSTM-W |
---|---|---|---|
Epochs | 30 | 50 | 50 |
Batch size | 512 | 192 | 192 |
Optimizer | RMSprop | Adam | Adam |
Loss function | MAE | MSE | MSE |
Learning rate | 0.001 | 0.001 * | 0.001 * |
Hidden neurons | 16 | 25 ** | 30 ** |
Activation function | Tanh | Tanh ** | Tanh ** |
Dropout | 0.3 | 0 ** | 0.3 ** |
Metrics | LSTM-B | LSTM-C | LSTM-W |
---|---|---|---|
MAE | 1.25 kW | 0.96 kW (−23.2%) | 0.89 kW (−28.8%) |
RMSE | 2.29 kW | 1.85 kW (−19.22%) | 1.92 kW (−16.16%) |
Neural Networks | Training and Validation [min] | Testing 50 Days [s] | Average Time for a Day-Ahead Forecast [s] |
---|---|---|---|
LSTM-B | 3.88 | 3.17 | 0.063 |
LSTM-C | 11.47 | 3.42 | 0.068 |
LSTM-W | 15.04 | 3.28 | 0.065 |
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Van Kriekinge, G.; De Cauwer, C.; Sapountzoglou, N.; Coosemans, T.; Messagie, M. Day-Ahead Forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand with Deep Neural Networks. World Electr. Veh. J. 2021, 12, 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj12040178
Van Kriekinge G, De Cauwer C, Sapountzoglou N, Coosemans T, Messagie M. Day-Ahead Forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand with Deep Neural Networks. World Electric Vehicle Journal. 2021; 12(4):178. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj12040178
Chicago/Turabian StyleVan Kriekinge, Gilles, Cedric De Cauwer, Nikolaos Sapountzoglou, Thierry Coosemans, and Maarten Messagie. 2021. "Day-Ahead Forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand with Deep Neural Networks" World Electric Vehicle Journal 12, no. 4: 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj12040178
APA StyleVan Kriekinge, G., De Cauwer, C., Sapountzoglou, N., Coosemans, T., & Messagie, M. (2021). Day-Ahead Forecast of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand with Deep Neural Networks. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 12(4), 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj12040178