Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Analytical Framework
2.1. Uncertainties in SEA Discussed in EA Literature
2.2. Uncertainties Discussed in Other Bodies of Environmental Literature
2.3. Toward a Typology of Uncertainties Relevant for SEAs
- Inherent uncertainties (“we cannot know (exactly)”);
- Scientific uncertainty (“our information and understanding could be wrong or incomplete”);
- Social uncertainty (“we do not agree on what information is or will be relevant”);
- Legal uncertainty (“we do not know what information we should (legally) provide”).
2.3.1. Inherent Uncertainty—“We Cannot Know (Exactly)”
- Because of variability of the system, the appropriate system boundaries regarding time and spatial scales are unknown or unclear, or the vulnerability of the system(s), populations, or individuals impacted varies. It may be possible to give “likely” bounds, but the precise impacts in practice will vary, and outliers cannot be ruled out. Examples include variability in local weather conditions, in local activities, or in the way local plants and animals might respond to the effects of a plan in the environment. For SEAs, it means that the exact magnitude and full range of environmental impacts of an activity cannot be known. Our knowledge of the natural system determines how we represent these properties in assessments, and how we design tools to evaluate impact.
- In understanding environmental processes, it is important to study the relationships between cause and effect. Cause-and-effect mechanisms can only be established if these relationships are well understood. In the case of very complex systems and issues, such as climate change, this is difficult to establish, and the system may exhibit “chaotic” behavior. As a consequence, assessing the impact of a future activity in SEAs can become very difficult, especially in complex systems and for long-term impacts.
- Uncertainties also arise in the assessment of cumulative effects [25]. Noise pollution is a good example for cumulative effects. If an activity takes place on a larger scale, other existing sources of noise have to be taken into account to study the total impact of noise. Different sources of noise reinforce each other, called accumulation. Noise increase from the assessed activity might seem irrelevant, yet, in total, it could mean a significant increase in noise pollution in the area. It can be difficult to understand how natural phenomena reinforce themselves. Consequently, the full impact of an activity in an existing situation with multiple sources and burdens may not be clear, and it can be difficult to attribute reported problems to a specific activity.
2.3.2. Scientific Uncertainty—“Our Information and Understanding Could Be Wrong or Incomplete”
- Models are simplified abstractions of the real world, and are, therefore, never fully accurate [26]. Uncertainties can occur in the model structure, variables, and parameters [8]. Similarly, many assumptions are made in the modeling process, e.g., in designing a model or combining models in a model chain, where different researchers might make different choices [48,49]. That models make simplifications and assumptions is, in itself, not necessarily bad—it is a necessary aspect of generalizing and applying knowledge of environmental processes to evaluate new situations (i.e., not yet existing in exactly the set-up proposed). Rather, one should relate models to model and knowledge quality [28], and to the fitness of the model for the purpose for which it is used in the assessment [50,51]. Often, generic models are developed and used in SEAs to find consistency in the research methodology, and thus, overcome uncertainty due to limitations in models. Interactions and variables that are unique to the situation might be overlooked.
- Models use the input of data. Uncertainty about data can occur due to limited access to information, measurement errors, type of data, and presentation of data [25,46,52]. Also, data might become invalid in the long term due to greater variability, depending on the time horizon that is selected. Limitations in data seriously influence the impact prediction that is the outcome of the model.
- Data on baseline conditions is a specific issue. Baseline conditions include the developments, impacts, and environmental dynamics that would occur without the proposed activity. Baseline conditions are a critical starting point in SEAs, as they provide the benchmark against which assessments are predicted. Measurement errors occur in baseline data [52].
- Uncertainties can occur in the choices of data, methods, parameters, and statistics, in other words, the assessment framework. Science is looking for measures to represent phenomena. It applies to SEAs in the sense that indicators are selected to study environmental effects, which may not be the best representation of the real environment [26,52].
- When determining change and impact, we need to determine past, present, and future activities for the development at issue [25]. To create an inventory of all activities, a large amount of effort and input is needed from different stakeholders. Future activities are especially difficult to include, since they occur over a longer time scale, influenced by many other factors.
2.3.3. Social Uncertainty—“We Do Not Agree on What Information Is or Will Be Relevant”
- Stakeholders, as well as decision-makers and researchers in SEAs have different values, interests, and perceptions of environmental components [8,46]. Examples are conflicts of interest regarding the objects to be studied, and different world views regarding what is important. It influences the framing of the problem, and therefore, the scope of the assessment. It also entails a subjective selection of criteria and indicators. The assessment of system boundaries and impacts are a result of negotiations between stakeholders.
- The political climate influences whether an environmental problem is addressed, and which alternatives are considered and selected [43]. Political groups or lobbyists can have a large influence on the outcome of the decision-making process. They can also demand to study specific environmental aspects, such as health or sustainability. It depends on the societal context and the period. It could also mean that politicians pursue political goals, and overrule environmental issues.
- Knowledge frames and capacities of stakeholders are strongly related to inherent and scientific uncertainty. It entails our understanding of the environmental processes at hand, but it also entails an understanding of what information is delivered in SEAs. This depends on the capacities and skills of responsible persons such as policy makers and project managers [39]. Similarly, the frames of the analysts and competent authorities play a role in shaping the scientific analysis in the (S)EAs; issue-framing plays a key role in setting the research questions and boundaries, strongly impacting what is analyzed and how, and consequently, the results of the analysis [22,28].
2.3.4. Legal Uncertainty—“We Do Not Know What Information We Should (Legally) Provide”
- The decision-making context poses uncertainty as to what information the SEA needs to deliver. The task of supplying information is imposed on the initiator of the policy or plan [52]. Often, legal guidelines exist to address the type and amount of information that needs to be delivered in SEAs to make a decision. However, uncertainty increases when the decision-making context changes due to new (environmental) legislation or revisions of existing legislation.
- The institutional context influences rights and responsibilities, and shapes the degree of power and influence [52]. This also relates to how responsibilities and definitions, for instance, the definition of the “precautionary principle”, are embedded in national or European Union (EU) law or international agreements. Such differences can lead to different levels of proof that are required before allowing a plan, or to demanding precautionary risk-mitigation actions, and who should bear the burden of proof [53,54].
- Furthermore, De Marchi [39] describes legal uncertainty as the future contingencies or personal liability for actions or inactions. The people involved in an SEA process, including the initiator, consultants, and decision-makers, are primarily concerned with making their assessments and decisions appear defensible and politically palatable [7]. Providing information about significant impacts in a worst-case scenario, or uncertainties in the assessment can have consequences for the public image, social trust, legitimacy, and political acceptability. The public can use this kind of information to appeal to a proposal, or at least policy-makers feel that this is the case.
2.4. Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in SEAs
2.4.1. Ideally or Typically Dealing with Uncertainties
2.4.2. Knowledge Generation
2.4.3. Stakeholder Involvement
2.4.4. Adaptive Management
2.4.5. Employing the Precautionary Principle
2.4.6. Linking Uncertainties to Strategies
3. Case Studies to Illustrate and to Refine and Bridge the Gap between Theory and Practice
3.1. Case Selection and Data Collection
- The planning initiatives have a relatively high level of abstraction, and therefore, contain uncertainties.
- The Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) reviewed the SEA report (which was expected to explicitly reveal uncertainties and suggestions for dealing with them).
- The SEAs ran in the past five years, ensuring respondents remembered the project.
3.2. Uncertainties Perceived in Practice and Strategies Employed for Dealing with Them
3.3. Dealing with Inherent Uncertainty
3.4. Dealing with Scientific Uncertainty
3.5. Dealing with Social Uncertainty
3.6. Dealing with Legal Uncertainty
4. Conclusions and Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Outline of Case Studies and Interviewees
Appendix A.1. Waalweelde West
Appendix A.2. Binckhorst
Appendix A.3. Oosterwold
Appendix A.4. Greenport Venlo
Appendix A.5. Eemsmond Delfzijl
Appendix B. Interviewees
No. | Affiliation | Organization | Date of Interview |
---|---|---|---|
EXPERT INTERVIEWS | |||
1. | Secretary | NCEA | 1 November 2016 |
2. | Senior researcher | Utrecht University | 11 November 2016 |
3. | Senior advisor SEA | Arcadis NL | 21 November 2016 |
CASE I: WAALWEELDE WEST | |||
4. | SEA project manager | Arcadis NL | 23 January 2017 |
5. | Project manager & SEA coordinator | Province of Gelderland | 26 January 2017 |
6. | Secretary | NCEA | 27 January 2017 |
7. | SEA specialist | Arcadis NL | 30 January 2017 |
CASE II: BINCKHORST | |||
8. | Policymaker | Municipality of The Hague | 29 November 2016 |
9. | Project manager Omgevingsplan | Municipality of The Hague | 29 November 2016 |
10. | Strategic consultant | Antea Group | 8 December 2016 |
11. | Secretary | NCEA | 22 December 2016 |
12. | Legal advisor | Municipality of The Hague | 23 December 2016 |
CASE III: OOSTERWOLD | |||
13. | Secretary | NCEA | 8 December 2016 |
14. | SEA practitioner & SEA project manager | Sweco | 10 January 2017 |
15. | SEA coordinator | Municipality of Almere | 25 January 2017 |
CASE IV: GREENPORT VENLO | |||
16. | Project manager SEA | Arcadis NL | 19 December 2016 |
17. | Project manager SEA | Development Company | 21 December 2016 |
18. | Secretary | NCEA | 7 March 2017 |
CASE V: EEMSMOND DELFZIJL | |||
19. | Project manager SEA | Arcadis NL | 13 January 2017 |
20. | Project manager SV Eemsmond Delfzijl | Province of Groningen | 20 January 2017 |
21. | SEA coordinator | Province of Groningen | 20 January 2017 |
22. | Secretary | NCEA | 7 March 2017 |
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Reference | Typologies or Interpretations of Uncertainty |
---|---|
[39] | Scientific, legal, moral, societal, institutional, proprietary, situational |
[40] | Uncertainty due to variability: natural randomness, value diversity, behavioral variability, societal randomness, technological surprise Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge: unreliability, structural uncertainty |
[32] | Location of uncertainty: context (natural, technical, economic, social, political, representation), model (structure, technical aspects), inputs (driving forces, system data), parameters, model outcomes Level of uncertainty: statistical, scenario, recognized ignorance, total ignorance Nature of uncertainty: epistemic or variability |
[41] | Nature: knowledge uncertainty, variability uncertainty Level: from low to high Source: technology, resources, competitors, suppliers, consumers, politics |
[42] | Lack of knowledge due to limited data Understanding of the system Unpredictability of factors in the system (randomness) Diversity of rules and mental models that determine stakeholder perceptions |
[15] | Unpredictability, incomplete knowledge or multiple knowledge frames about the natural system, technical system or social system |
[43] | Data uncertainty, model uncertainty, human uncertainty |
[36] | Knowledge uncertainty: process understanding, model/data uncertainty Variability: natural, human, institutional, technological Linguistic uncertainty: vagueness, ambiguity, underspecificity |
[44] | Data or methods/knowledge gaps, inherent to complexity/ecological systems, societal interpretation of effects and values |
[45] | Location: model structure, parameters, input data Nature: epistemic, ontic (process variability, normative uncertainty) Range: statistical (range + chance), scenario (range + “what if”) Recognized ignorance Methodological unreliability Value diversity among analysts |
[38] | Location: system boundary, conceptual model, computer model (structure, parameters inside model, input parameters to model), input data, model implementation, processed output data Level: shallow, medium, deep, recognized ignorance Nature: ambiguity, epistemology, ontology |
[46] | Location in a model: content, process, context of knowledge Sources: lack of knowledge, variability, expert subjectivity, communication |
[47] | Epistemic uncertainty: data, language, system Aleatory uncertainty: variability, extrapolation Combined Epistemic-Aleatory: model, decision |
Type | What Is Uncertain? | What Is a Successful Outcome? |
---|---|---|
Inherent Unpredictability in the natural system | The full range of options and impacts | A bandwidth of options or effects is identified; it is explicitly addressed in future programs and/or intervention measures are explicitly available |
Scientific Limited or false information | Outcomes of models are inaccurate or not representative | Additional information is provided, or the issue is explicitly addressed in a follow-up program |
Social Doubts or ambiguity about information | Differences in values, interests, and perceptions | Support for the plan is obtained |
Legal Decision-making context | The justification of decisions | Acknowledgement or justification through public appeal or authorities |
Case, Publishing Year, and Consultancy Firm | Project Characteristics |
---|---|
#1 Structure Vision Waalweelde West (2015) | Initiator: Province of Gelderland Goal: Flood protection program including regional economic, urban, and ecologic development |
#2 Zoning plan Binckhorst Den Haag (2015–ongoing) | Initiator: Municipality of The Hague Goal: Transformation of the Binckhorst into a sustainable mixed urban living area (5000 houses) |
#3 Structure Vision Almere Oosterwold (2013) & Zoning plan Oosterwold (2016) | Initiator: Municipality of Almere Goal: Sustainable development of Oosterwold into a low density living/working area (15,000 houses) |
#4 Structure Vision Greenport Venlo (2012) | Initiator: Development Company Greenport Venlo (partnership of public organizations and private shareholders) Goal: Sustainable development of agribusiness (14,000 jobs) |
#5 Structure Vision Eemsmond Delfzijl (2017) | Initiator: Province of Groningen Goal: Industrial development of Eemsmond region (wind farms, heliport, industrial areas) |
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Bodde, M.; Van der Wel, K.; Driessen, P.; Wardekker, A.; Runhaar, H. Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2463. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072463
Bodde M, Van der Wel K, Driessen P, Wardekker A, Runhaar H. Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands. Sustainability. 2018; 10(7):2463. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072463
Chicago/Turabian StyleBodde, Maartje, Karin Van der Wel, Peter Driessen, Arjan Wardekker, and Hens Runhaar. 2018. "Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment: An Analytical Framework Illustrated with Case Studies from The Netherlands" Sustainability 10, no. 7: 2463. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072463