Trade-Off Relationship of Arable and Ecological Land in Urban Growth When Altering Urban Form: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.3. Urban Development Simulation
2.3.1. Modeling Application
2.3.2. Parameterization of Sub-Models
2.3.3. Urban Growth Scenarios
2.4. Sensitivity Matrix
3. Results
3.1. Calibration and Validation of the Model
3.2. Land-Use Projections for Shenzhen
3.3. Comparison of Ecological Land and Arable Land Changes
3.4. Sub-Regional Response to Alternative Urban Growth Scenarios
3.4.1. Comparison of Sub-Regional Ecological Land and Arable Land Changes
3.4.2. Sub-Regional Arable Land Changes in Response to the Alternative Urban Growth Scenarios
3.4.3. Sub-Regional Ecological Land Changes in Response to the Alternative Urban Growth Scenarios
3.4.4. Classification of Sub-Regional Responses
4. Discussion
4.1. Inevitable Choice Between Arable and Ecological Land When Altering Urban Forms
4.2. Response of Sub-Regions to Alternative Scenarios
4.3. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Estimate | Std. Error | Pr (>|Z|) | |
---|---|---|---|
Intercept | −1.988 | 0.210 | <0.001 |
Development pressure | 0.028 | 0.003 | <0.001 |
Distance to ship port | 0.020 | 0.010 | 0.042 |
Forest | −0.041 | 0.003 | <0.001 |
Slope | −0.027 | 0.013 | 0.032 |
Amount of foreign capital actually used | 0.012 | 0.003 | <0.001 |
District | Intercept |
---|---|
1 Futian | −2.088 |
2 Guangming | −2.090 |
3 Longhua | −1.750 |
4 Luohu | −2.229 |
5 Pingshan | −1.808 |
6 Yantian | −1.773 |
7 Longgang | −2.213 |
8 Dapeng | −1.961 |
9 Nanshan | −1.971 |
10 Baoan | −1.975 |
2017 | MCA | FLUS | LUSD | FUTURES | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean Shape Index | 1.8261 | 1.8123 | 2.0206 | 1.8123 | 1.8168 |
Largest Patch Index | 16.5482 | 18.0035 | 16.3603 | 16.4965 | 20.6616 |
Mean Patch Area | 500.5899 | 558.4000 | 604.1227 | 502.5581 | 492.8274 |
Number of Cells | 1,056,801 | 1,055,372 | 1,047,146 | 1,055,372 | 1,056,841 |
Land Use | BAU | Infill | Sprawl | Increase | Decrease | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area (km2) | Change (%) | Area (km2) | Change (%) | Area (km2) | Change (%) | Area (km2) | Change (%) | Area (km2) | Change (%) | |
Arable | 81.79 | −78.13 | 61.58 | −83.53 | 126.28 | −66.23 | 148.10 | −60.40 | 47.26 | −87.36 |
Ecological | 655.47 | −34.67 | 654.06 | −34.81 | 591.02 | −41.10 | 822.96 | −17.98 | 562.41 | −43.95 |
Urban | 1480.57 | 76.16 | 1502.18 | 78.73 | 1500.54 | 78.54 | 1246.78 | 48.34 | 1608.17 | 91.34 |
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Dai, K.; Shen, S.; Cheng, C.; Ye, S.; Gao, P. Trade-Off Relationship of Arable and Ecological Land in Urban Growth When Altering Urban Form: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 10041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310041
Dai K, Shen S, Cheng C, Ye S, Gao P. Trade-Off Relationship of Arable and Ecological Land in Urban Growth When Altering Urban Form: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China. Sustainability. 2020; 12(23):10041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310041
Chicago/Turabian StyleDai, Kaixuan, Shi Shen, Changxiu Cheng, Sijing Ye, and Peichao Gao. 2020. "Trade-Off Relationship of Arable and Ecological Land in Urban Growth When Altering Urban Form: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China" Sustainability 12, no. 23: 10041. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122310041