Multi-Temporal Built-Up Grids of Brazilian Cities: How Trends and Dynamic Modelling Could Help on Resilience Challenges?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. The “Natural Resilience” of the Northeastern Brazilian Cities
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Cellular Automata Model: SIMLANDER
3.2. Cities Selection
3.3. Datasets and Influencing Factors
3.4. Methodology Overview
- (i)
- the “infilling” (increasing population density in the existing urban area);
- (ii)
- the “edge-expansion” or “extension” (urbanisation advancing from the edges of an existing urban area);
- (iii)
- “outlying” or “leap-frogging” (emergence of new urban patches that are isolated from existing urban areas).
3.5. Trend Analysis and Applications
3.5.1. Water Demand Estimates
3.5.2. Future Imperviousness Rates for Flood Simulations
4. Results and Discussions
4.1. Water Demand Applications
4.2. Flood Simulation Applications
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Criterion | Description |
---|---|
Population threshold (over 50 thousand people) | Most of the towns in NEB are small cities (under 50 thousand people), and there are some “spots” that have been attracting urban growth over recent decades. Population information was collected through the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). |
The occurrence of water-related hazards | This is mainly related to water scarcity and floods. The databases about floods are surrounded by uncertainty, but there has been national risk disaster mapping [46] of high-risk areas in those selected cities (as well as in many others in the NEB). The water supply services can be evaluated by a national database [47], and the latest information was considered in the selection of the cities. |
Degree of urbanisation (over 70%) | Considering the whole NEB, more than 70% of the population lives in an urban area. This study selected only cities with the degree of urbanisation above 70%. Although initially the study was focused on “non-capital” cities, all NEB capitals face some level of troubles regarding floods seasonally. In this sense, having one capital sample could improve the outreach of our research. The chosen capital (Fortaleza-CE) is one of the NEB capitals more dependent on semi-arid water resources. Past policymakers’ choices made the water supply highly dependent on Castanhão lake, one of the most affected surface reservoirs in the last drought [48]. |
Dynamic movement attraction | This characteristic is due to the movement attraction that some cities have because of the importance within a state. For example, Campina Grande and Caruaru are the second-most urbanised cities in Paraiba and Pernambuco states, respectively (IBGE). Both cities attract visitors due to commercial, industrial, cultural, and education activities. This increases the dynamic in each city and makes the prediction even more critical for the management |
Previous studies and proximity for future assessments | Due to the high applicability of the built-up information in further studies, this work also considered the proximity and previous knowledge and studies about them [27,30]. It shall facilitate the development of field studies in the future. |
Cities | Population (2020) | Area (km2) | Degree of Urbanisation (%) | State Ranking (Population) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Fortaleza—CE | 2,669,342 | 312.3 | 91.8 | 1° |
Campina Grande—PB | 409,731 | 591.6 | 89.6 | 2° |
Mossoró—RN | 297,378 | 2099.3 | 79.7 | 2° |
Caruaru—PE | 361,118 | 920.6 | 77.4 | 2° |
Caicó—RN | 67,952 | 1228.5 | 84.5 | 7° |
Patos—PB | 107,605 | 472.8 | 90.4 | 4° |
GHSL Data/Collection | Description | Technical Information |
---|---|---|
GHS_BUILT_LDSMT_GLOBE_R2018A | built-up up to the 1975 period built-up during the 1975 to 1990 period built-up during the 1990 to 2000 period built-up during the 2000 to 2014 period | Multitemporal classification of built-up presence from Landsat images; 30 m of resolution—Pseudo Mercator (EPSG:3857) |
GHS_BUILT_S1NODSM_GLOBE_R2018A | built-up presence as derived from Sentinel1 image collections (2016) | Built-up surfaces derived from global Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data, collected during 2016; 20 m of resolution—Spherical Mercator (EPSG:3857) |
Variables | Assumptions | References |
---|---|---|
Distance to city centre | The more is the proximity to the city centre is an area, the more attractive it is to changes. Land-use changes tend to be more frequent in the NEB city centres, as well as the number of buildings and imperviousness. The assumption here is: the built-up areas increase as long they are close to the city centre | [13,14] [32,38,39,40,41,42,43,44] [52,53,54,55] |
Distance to main roads | Changes are more substantial and often close to the main roads. Accessibility attracts changes in urban areas. | |
Distance to belt highways | The cities’ fringes are continually changing in NEB. Usually close to the belt highways. Those areas can be becoming attractive for the easy access options in the edge of the traffic of a city. | |
Distance to other cities | The neighbourhood influence is strong in NEB. There is a lot of economic and social dependence between the cities, which is a change attractor. The nearer to other cities, the more the possibility to change increases. | |
Population density | A statistical grid of population density [56] was used and the closer to more populated pixels, the more the possibility to change increases. Usually, areas with a higher number of buildings and high density levels tend to attract changes. | |
Inherent dynamic (changes) | For each city, the distance to the pixels that changed (more attractive pixel) was considered. The 2014 grid and 1975 grid were compared, and all changed pixels were change attractor pixels. |
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Rufino, I.; Djordjević, S.; Costa de Brito, H.; Alves, P.B.R. Multi-Temporal Built-Up Grids of Brazilian Cities: How Trends and Dynamic Modelling Could Help on Resilience Challenges? Sustainability 2021, 13, 748. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020748
Rufino I, Djordjević S, Costa de Brito H, Alves PBR. Multi-Temporal Built-Up Grids of Brazilian Cities: How Trends and Dynamic Modelling Could Help on Resilience Challenges? Sustainability. 2021; 13(2):748. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020748
Chicago/Turabian StyleRufino, Iana, Slobodan Djordjević, Higor Costa de Brito, and Priscila Barros Ramalho Alves. 2021. "Multi-Temporal Built-Up Grids of Brazilian Cities: How Trends and Dynamic Modelling Could Help on Resilience Challenges?" Sustainability 13, no. 2: 748. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020748