1. Introduction and Purpose
Limiting climate change is one of the great challenges of our time, and the United Nations [
1] calls on all different types of actors to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [
1]. Clark et al. [
2] emphasize the importance of changing the food sector if the global average temperature increase is to be kept below 2 °C. The change needs to be radical [
2]. Today’s food systems account for a third of manmade greenhouse gas emissions [
3], 32% of acidification, and 78% of eutrophication, which together means a major impact on species and ecosystems [
4]. The same systems also use about 40% of the global land area that is not covered by ice or desert [
4].
In the past 20 years, many scientific studies have drawn attention to the fact that a diet changed towards a more plant-based one could have large positive effects on ecosystems [
4,
5,
6]. These effects can be created by freeing up large areas of land, as fewer animals must be provided with feed, which gives more space for other organisms. The same dietary change would also lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved health [
7,
8]. The UN Climate Panel states in its report from 2019 that a diet with little or no elements of meat and dairy products can lead to large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and land use [
9].
An aid for understanding the environmental impact of food in detail is to calculate emissions such as greenhouse gases, as well as resource use such as energy, land, and water during the lifecycle of products. For food, this usually starts by calculating the environmental impact from the production of inputs in agriculture, after which emissions and resource use during rearing of animals (if applicable), processing, packaging, transport, sales and, in some cases, cooking and waste management are included. Such studies may be called life cycle assessments [
10], and are examples of system studies. Over the years, many such studies have been carried out that have shown that animal products, such as red meat, often have a much greater environmental impact than those made from plants, such as a bean burger [
4]. Nijdam et al. [
11] also state that some animal products, such as chicken, eggs, and certain fish products, have relatively low greenhouse gas emissions and land use. In light of such findings, some authors [
12] argue for the possibility of including a certain amount of meat in sustainable diets.
Recent research of food systems assessing the environmental impacts of existing diets show that they could be improved both from an environmental and a health perspective. Hallström et al. [
13], who reviewed results from many such studies, found that they showed great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and land use by up to 50%. Springman et al. [
14] stated that we cannot stay within the planetary boundaries without changing to more plant-based diets. The same conclusion was drawn by Gonzáles-Garcia et al. [
15], who also drew attention to the fact that diet in Northern and Western Europe has a major environmental impact, which is partly due to the high consumption of dairy products. Regarding dairy products, Heller et al. [
16] and Chapa et al. [
17] state that dairy products contribute to a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions and energy use in various diets. Concerning health impacts, several analyses of the health impacts of plant-based diets shows that there may be substantial benefits [
18,
19,
20]. However, White and Hall [
21] found that diets from plants only could increase nutrient deficiency. Their results were questioned on the grounds that the assumptions behind their scenario were unrealistic [
22].
Insights that a decrease in the consumption of animal products may lower greenhouse gas emissions have led to the development of tools for menu planning. Colombo et al. [
23] created and tested an optimization program for school meals to reduce environmental impact and found that greenhouse gas emissions could fall by 28% without increasing cost, decreasing nutritional content, or the students wasting food. The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions was achieved by, for example, reducing the amount of red meat and dairy products.
Over the past decade, a range of new foods that can replace dairy products have entered the market. These are products based on plants such as oats, soybeans, peas, almonds, coconut, rapeseed, and various nuts. The products are sold both as beverages that can replace, for example, milk or cream and as solid products that can replace items such as butter or cheese. The market for these plant-based (PB) alternatives to dairy has accelerated, and dairy is currently “under siege in key markets”, most significantly in western countries [
24]. Dairy products are defined as “kinds of foods that are obtained primarily from or contain milk of mammals such as cattle, goats, sheep, etc.” [
25]. Research on how PB alternatives to dairy products are marketed and received by consumers has been published [
26,
27,
28] and the benefits of PB alternatives are discussed in the media [
29,
30]. However, as far as we know, there is no summary of the state of research regarding the differences in environmental effects between PB alternatives to dairy and dairy products. Such a compilation could help raise the level of the debate about the environmental impact of food and inform meal planners and politicians about the potential impacts of lowering dairy consumption.
Considering the situation above, this study aims to contribute to increased knowledge about the environmental differences between plant-based dairy alternatives and dairy products, and hence the research question is:
What does the research say about how plant-based dairy alternatives and dairy products differ in terms of environmental effects?
2. Method and Materials
To answer the research question, we performed a systematic review of current research. We followed a well-established guideline for conducting systematic reviews, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The review protocol below was developed by the authors, and it is based on the PRISMA checklist [
31]. The structure below (
Section 2.1,
Section 2.2,
Section 2.3,
Section 2.4,
Section 2.5 and
Section 2.6) follows the PRISMA guidelines that were applicable to our study. We have also chosen to include outcomes from the steps in this section, rather than reporting them separately in the results section, since it makes the results section easier to read.
2.1. Eligibility Criteria
We applied the following inclusion and exclusion criteria to the studies identified in the database search:
Inclusion criteria:
Peer-reviewed papers published in journals
Studies describing the environmental impact of PB dairy alternatives
Any population
Studies published in the year 2000 or later
Papers written in English
Exclusion criteria:
Studies reusing data sets from other studies
Studies without quantitative results
Studies where the environmental impact was not compared to corresponding dairy products
2.2. Information Sources
Together with an information specialist librarian, we chose three databases to perform our searches. The databases were:
Web of Science and Scopus, the two biggest commercial multidisciplinary databases
GreenFILE, since it has a focus on sustainability
The databases were searched between 16 December and 21 December 2020. After removing duplicates and applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, we then used backward snowballing to search the references in the included papers for other relevant titles, and then forward snowballing to search for possible relevant papers referencing the included papers, as per the guidelines supplied by Wohlin [
32]. The same inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. Backward snowballing was thus not limited to a specific database, whereas forward snowballing used Scopus and Web of Science. Forward snowballing was carried out on 10 February 2021.
2.3. Search Strategy
The search string was developed iteratively, where the two main criteria were that included papers should cover one or more aspects of ecological sustainability such as “greenhouse gas”, “eutrophication” or “acidification”, and that the object evaluated should be some kind of PB dairy product such as “soy milk”, “oat yoghurt”, and “rice milk”. The first iteration of the search string was constructed by listing search terms based on our own prior knowledge within the area, and then we performed an initial search. We found several relevant papers and from these extracted more search terms. Using this new set of search terms, we conducted a Scopus search for papers including at least one term from both categories of words (see search question 1 in the
Supplementary Material 1). This resulted in 525 papers. From these, all author keywords and journal keywords were extracted, which resulted in 5834 unique keywords. These were sorted according to frequency, and all 1163 keywords appearing at least three times were assessed for relevance by the research group. This resulted in a new set of search terms.
The terms for PB dairy alternatives found were then complemented by generating possible product terms by combining all product types (such as “yoghurt” and “spread”) with synonyms for non-dairy (such as “soy” and “plant based”) into new terms (“soy yoghurt”, “soy spread”, “plant-based yoghurt”, “plant-based spread”. The PB dairy alternatives terms were also complemented by a list of companies known to produce PB dairy alternatives. Based on this, the second iteration of the search string was constructed. After performing the search based on the second iteration of the search string, we limited the search to relevant subject areas by removing irrelevant ones such as astronomy or mathematics, and also limiting the search to publications published in the year 2000 or later, resulting in the final search string.
The search string (see also
Supplementary Material 1) was then adapted to all three databases, and after conducting the three searches, duplicates were removed. This resulted in 4044 papers, to which the inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. After scanning titles, 130 remained, and after reading abstracts, 27 remained, which were downloaded and read.
To find papers the search might have missed, we then, after completing the selection process (see next section), complemented the search by selecting all references found in the selected papers (backward snowballing) and by searching Scopus for all papers referring to the selected papers (forward snowballing) and then applying the selection process to these papers as well. We completed one round of backward and forward snowballing. The backward snowballing reviewed the 1720 references in the 26 papers found in the initial search. After screening titles, 28 papers remained, and after screening abstracts, 11 papers remained that were downloaded. The forward snowballing of the 26 papers identified 1593 papers referring to these papers. After removing duplicates and screening titles, 60 remained, and after screening abstracts, 25 papers remained that were downloaded. The snowballing procedure used is described by Wohlin (2014) [
32]. The full search is presented in the
Supplementary Materials using a PRISMA flow diagram (
Supplementary Material 2).
2.4. Selection Process
The papers found in the database searches and in the snowballing process were first screened by applying the inclusion criteria to the title of the paper with a generous interpretation. For the papers remaining, the same process was applied to the abstract. For the papers remaining after the screening of the abstracts, the full papers were downloaded and read, and the inclusion/exclusion criteria were once again applied, resulting in our final corpus. When
Supplementary Materials were presented, these were also downloaded. All these steps were conducted by the first author of this paper.
2.5. Data Collection Process
A data extraction form was developed, using Microsoft Excel, in which the results from each included study were recorded. The extraction form was informed by the standard data extraction strategies in the Cochrane Handbook of Systematic Reviews [
33].
Data Items
For each study, the following data were collected:
Basic information: Authors, Year
Products compared: For example, “milk, soy drink, almond drink. Eight values for soy drink and four for almond drink”
Functional unit: For example, “1 kg of product, energy, nutrition, and satiety”
System boundary: For example, “Cradle to regional distribution center” or “cradle to retailer”
Country where the products are sold
Country where the products are produced
Then, for each product found, the following data were recorded:
Greenhouse gas emissions, kg CO2 eq./kg or kg CO2 eq./L.
Energy use, MJ/kg or MJ/L.
Eutrophication potential, kg PO4 eq./kg or kg PO4 eq./L.
Acidification potential, kg SO2 eq./kg or kg SO2 eq./L.
Photochemical ozone depletion potential, kg C2 H4 eq./kg or C2 H4 eq./kg L.
Land use, m2/kg or m2/L.
Water use, m3/kg or m3/kg L.
Although we had included search terms such as “biodiversity” and “carbon storage” (
Supplementary Materials 1) we found no studies comparing these parameters.
2.6. Effect Measures and Synthesis Methods
As an effect measure, we used the quotient of the ratio of the environmental impact of the PB dairy product divided by the corresponding environmental impact of the milk-based dairy product, resulting in a dimensionless quotient for each study. For example, if the greenhouse gas emissions for milk are 0.99 kg CO2 e/kg product and the emissions for oat drink are 0.21 kg CO2 e/kg product, the quotient is 0.21 (0.21/0.99). Another way of expressing this result is that oat drinks emit 21% of the greenhouse gases that milk does. When several values for PB dairy alternatives to dairy and dairy products were available in a study, averages for the respective product were used to calculate the quotient.
The reason for choosing a quotient instead of absolute values was that different studies often have different system boundaries. This may, for example, mean that a study has only included the environmental impact from milk and soy drinks until they leave the dairy/factory, while another study for the same purpose has gone further in the analysis and also included the sales stage. Both approaches are correct, but it is not correct to compare the results with each other. In the studies, there may also be a difference in how to measure, for example, water use (groundwater/rainwater/both) and how/if to measure carbon dioxide emissions from soil. Different methods for co-allocation of environmental impacts may also have been used. We assumed that the authors of the various articles had ensured that their environmental values for the various products studied were comparable, and that a quotient would therefore be the best way of comparing PB alternatives to dairy and dairy products from the different studies. We recorded all results of environmental impacts that were presented in tables but we did not attempt to estimate such a number from graphs only.
At the end of the analysis, we also calculated a weighted average for all PB alternatives compared with the dairy products for each environmental impact. This was obtained by weighting the quotients found for each study with the number of products studied in that study. This was performed to account for the large variations in the number of products studied in the different publications where several studies only had one product (e.g., soy drink), while other studies had up to 47 products. An example of how this was conducted is given for weighted average for water use of PB alternatives to cream versus cream, as shown below, see also
Supplementary Material 3, sheet called weighted averages.
4. Discussion and Conclusions
In this report, we have tried to answer the question of how PB alternatives to dairy products differ from dairy in terms of environmental impacts. The method has been a systematic literature review whose results have been translated into a measure of differences between PB alternatives and dairy products. We have recorded the following environmental parameters: greenhouse gas emissions, land, water, and energy use as well as emissions of acidifying, eutrophicating, and ozone-depleting substances. For some of these parameters, there are a lot of data (e.g., on greenhouse gas emissions), while the data on land and water use are lower, and the data on emissions of ozone-depleting substances only appear in one study. We did not find any studies that reported differences in carbon storage and contributions to biodiversity between PB alternatives to dairy and dairy products, although these concepts were included in our search.
The results from our study find that the differences, with a few exceptions, are to the advantage of the PB alternatives. The study also shows the need for more research on PB alternatives to cheese, environmental effects other than greenhouse gas emissions, and how PB alternatives can be optimized to achieve the least possible environmental impact. In a transition to a more plant-based diet, it is important that the substitutes for the animal-based alternatives take place with minimal environmental impact to thus contribute to maximum effect. We found examples of PB beverages that had between 21% and 67% of greenhouse gas emissions from milk. Of course, the type of alternative that will dominate makes a big difference to the climate impact of the food system. We also recommend that future studies of PB dairy alternatives versus dairy incorporate large number of various products such as was performed by Liao et al. [
47]. Only then can the true environmental potential of PB alternatives be estimated and the most environmentally friendly ones be identified. Given that the transition to a low carbon society is urgent, so is this research.
Regarding the impacts on biodiversity, where comparative analyses on PB dairy versus dairy are missing according to this study, it is of utmost importance to ensure that PB dairy alternatives do not cause more harm to biodiversity than milk-based products do. An area for concern is the use of soybeans for producing PB drinks, etc., as it is known that the cultivation of soybeans partly takes place in areas recently covered by natural vegetation such as tropical forests and savanna woodlands located in South America [
55].
IPBES [
56] states that that around one million species already face extinction, many within decades. For terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, land-use change has had the largest relative negative impact on nature since 1970 and agricultural expansion is the most widespread form of land-use change (ibid). Moreover, climate change itself is projected to become increasingly important as a direct driver of changes in nature. Approximately 25 per cent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions come from land clearing, crop production and fertilization, with animal-based food contributing 75 per cent of that [
56].
The current use of soybeans is mainly for animal feed, 77% [
57]. PB dairy alternatives are made from numbers of different products including cereals, tubers, legumes, and nuts. It is crucial that the soybeans used in such products have not been farmed on land recently converted from species rich nature types such as savannas and forests, otherwise they may be as harmful to biodiversity as the animal husbandry using soybeans as fodder. In this study, we did not find any mention of the use of soybeans from countries in South America. However, many authors did not mention the origin of soybeans in their studies.
Another reason for concern about biodiversity when substituting dairy for PB alternatives may occur in some countries, such as Sweden, where grazing livestock are considered crucial for preserving species-rich pastures [
58]. In Sweden, there are currently about 440,000 ha of semi-natural grazing land that should be grazed by ruminants for reasons of biodiversity conservation. In a scenario using pure suckler herds for grazing, the amount of beef produced was estimated at 40 g per week and person in Sweden. This assumed that the cows had a calf every year that was slaughtered and that no milk was produced [
59]. This example shows that some animal husbandry may be needed to maintain biodiversity in selected areas.
In our study, we used data on the environmental impacts of various products on a per kg/liter basis. It is worth noting that there is a discussion taking place among researchers about how the environmental impact between different food products should be compared, whether this should be per kg or liter or in some other way. Some believe that the environmental impact should be set in relation to the nutrient content and suggest methods for it [
36,
60], while others claim that they can give a skewed picture for certain foods, e.g., vegetables [
61]. Others emphasize that satiety should be a comparative measure [
62]. Among the increasing number of studies assessing the environmental impact of different meals and diets, the initial value is the environmental impact per weight or unit of volume, as weight and volume are the data found in recipes and dietary surveys.
Alternative ways of assessing the environmental impact of the food sector have also begun to develop. Röös et al. [
63] compared, for example, a farm where the business had the same goal: to produce a beverage with the same function as milk with a certain amount of protein, oil, and animal feed and to keep a certain area of pasture open. When the beverage was delivered as an oat beverage, the greenhouse gas emissions were much lower than when the beverage was delivered as cow’s milk. From this, we conclude that alternative approaches to depicting the environmental impact of food are being developed, and they should be followed up and evaluated.
Results from our review, with a few exceptions, show that PB alternatives to dairy have a smaller negative impact on the environment compared to dairy products. This implies that the environmental impact of meals most probably could be decreased by replacing dairy with PB alternatives. On the surface, this seems like a straightforward task and an easily accomplished way to contribute to mitigating harmful effects for the environment. However, since somebody actually needs to perform the shift from dairy to PB products in meals, they need to become aware of and trust these results. Furthermore, research results published in scientific articles need to find their way to their application in relevant everyday contexts. Relevant target groups need to be identified as well as communication channels and adequate packaging of results.
The results presented in this article may be of use for a multitude of stakeholders, including professionals planning canteen meals or restaurants and even private households. Our review points at least to one example where the communication chain has been pursued. Through an optimization program for school meals, Colombo et al. [
23] showed that in reducing the amount of red meat and dairy products—without reducing nutritional content—the greenhouse gas emissions could fall by 28%. This example illustrates that research results from the calculation of the environmental impact of ingredients constituting a meal could be transformed into algorithms for an optimization program and subsequently substantiated in the preparation of school meals. An uptake of similar practices for more schools has the potential for upscaling the positive effect of the research results for the environment. The packaging of research results as well as targeting relevant groups to put research into practice is a crucial bridge construction for results to have a real and beneficial effect on the environment. The research area of environmental communication [
64] has a lot to contribute to guiding the communication process.