Prediction of China’s Grain Consumption from the Perspective of Sustainable Development—Based on GM(1,1) Model
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
General comment
Title: instate of GM(1,1) model, write grey model
Abstract: OK
Introduction: no where given full form of GM model, plz write in L 72
In place of given predicted trend in figure (Figure 1) give data in tabular form.
Specific comment
1. Authors have used only GM(1,1) model, some study has been done on GM(2,1) model also. I suggest authors to use both GM(1,1) and GM(2,1) model and give comparative study whciich model is performing better.
2. Only country data has been used for analysis. Authors are advised to explore the availability of region wise data (for example seven regions of China) and give forecasting trend for each region so that one can get clear picture of region wise food consumption. this will make the article more scientific
Author Response
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Author Response File: 
Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 2 Report
The processed paper is devoted to an interesting topic. Its content is understandable. On the other hand, its structure is not well proposed. The processed paper is suffering because of the following problems. The processed literature overview does not provide any final knowledge gap. The novelty and importance of the topic is not enough highlighted. The proposed objectives are too simple. It would be better to specify them more in deep. The analytical part of the paper is not processed in deep. There is no relevant results explanation. The paper also does not provide any results discussion. The paper does not discuss its results to any other already published outputs. The importance and quality of proposed results is not discussed and highlighted. The final conclusion could be considered as disappointment. It does not provide any really attractive outputs and information. The proposed paper must be significantly revised. After above mentioned revisions - it is necessary to make another review. The paper in its current form is too simple and it does not provide any really new and important findings.
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 3 Report
Dear Editor,
The authors examine an important issue: the grain prediction and analysis of China’s grain consumption. Grain consumption is showing security problems such as shortage of water and soil resources, fragile ecological environment, and infrastructure constraints. This study uses a GM(1,1) prediction model. The prediction results show that China’s grain consumption will continue to increase from 2022 to 2031.
My specific comments follow in the next paragraph.
1) One of the strengths of the paper is the use of GM(1,1) for predicting the level of consumption. In my opinion, the section about the description of the results is weak. Indeed, the authors only assert that consumption will increase and make no comparison with the literature.
2) In this sense, it would be advisable for the authors to look at and compare their results with other studies in the literature, first of all, the OECD economic outlook. I think this section is relevant, but a comparison with other studies is needed to understand the point highlighted by the authors.
3) I think the author should improve the estimation method. Indeed, GMM(1,1) has one shortcoming, that is, homogeneous-exponent simulative deviation. Some authors proposed other methods such as GM(1,1;λ) with Constrained Linear Least Squares or improvement and application of the GM(1,1) model based on multivariable dynamic optimization.
4) I believe the authors should better justify why they have chosen this method in place of the others.
5) The description of the empirical literature is weak, adding more recent papers would improve this paragraph. As previously said, one of the main concerns is related to the discussion and conclusions, which appear to be sparse. In this sense, the authors should make a greater effort to explain the phenomenon and the implications of their results also in light of current dynamics (crisis, climate change, conflicts, and so on). The topic is relevant and, the authors should elaborate on what they actually did.
The authors should also consider the following literature:
Chen, Y.; Lu, C. Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5165. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195165
Du, L.; Xu, L.; Li, Y.; Liu, C.; Li, Z.; Wong, J.S.; Lei, B. China's Agricultural Irrigation and Water Conservancy Projects: A Policy Synthesis and Discussion of Emerging Issues. Sustainability 2019, 11, 7027. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11247027
Zhang, Xiao-Hong, et al. "An emergy evaluation of the sustainability of Chinese crop production system during 2000-2010." Ecological indicators 60 (2016): 622-633.
LU, Wen-cong, Chen Ning-lu, and Qian Wen-xin. "Modeling the effects of urbanization on grain production and consumption in China." Journal of integrative agriculture 16.6 (2017): 1393-1405.
Comments for author File: Comments.pdf
Author Response
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Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 4 Report
The paper establishes a GM(1,1) model of various grain consumption, and forecasts the grain consumption in China from 2022 to 2031. The future development trend of many kinds of food is analyzed and discussed. Food security is an important issue, but the presentation of the paper is less than satisfactory.
1. The writing of the paper should conform to the basic writing norms of the journal. Authors should ensure that the paper presented to readers is easy to read. such as neat formula typesetting.
2. It is inappropriate to place the research conclusions in the article in the introduction. On the contrary, the conclusion part of the article is not discussed in depth enough.
3. Authors should pay attention to the correct expression of academic terms. 1-AGO is short for first-order accumulation operator, not a first-order accumulation operation.
4. Please check Eq. (8).
5. The sample size of this paper is 2010-2021, with a total of 12 data. The forecast range is 2022-2031, with a total of 10 data. Please read the relevant literature carefully to improve the prediction settings.
To sum up, the content of the article is too simple, the expression is not professional enough, and the future forecast and analysis of China's grain output is not deep enough.
Author Response
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Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Round 2
Reviewer 1 Report
Agreed with the revised version
Author Response
Dear Reviewer,
We are glad and thankful that you approve our modifications.
Special thanks to you again for your good comments.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 2 Report
The revised paper is more understandable. Some problems are eliminated. But there are still at least two significant problems. The objectives of the paper are still too general one and it is necessary to make them more specific and to specify methodology with respect to individual sub-objectives. The second problem is represented by extremely brief conclusion. The final conclusion is still too poor and disappointing. The paper should pass through the above mentioned minor revisions.
Author Response
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for your comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Prediction of China’s Grain Consumption from the Perspective of Sustainable Development -- Based on GM(1,1) Model ”( sustainability - 1813268 ). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches.
We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewer’s comments are as flowing:
Point 1: The objectives of the paper are still too general one and it is necessary to make them more specific and to specify methodology with respect to individual sub-objectives.
Response 1: The research objectives have been clearly stated in the abstract and introduction of the article, and the research methods have been also explained there.
Point 2: The second problem is represented by extremely brief conclusion. The final conclusion is still too poor and disappointing.
Response 2: The conclusion of this paper have been enriched at the end of the article, mainly concluding the factors related to grain consumption, such as grain trade and grain price, which have been deeply analyzed and summarized.
Special thanks to you for your good comments.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 3 Report
Dear Editor,
I appreciated the authors' efforts.
Even if some doubt about the article's structure remains, the inclusion of the results' discussion strengthens this relevant topic.
In what follows, there are some minor comments:
a) I think the authors should add some notes or small sentences in the texts to emphasize the differences between their work and the OECD-FAO outlook. Indeed, the OECD-FAO outlook is the principal reference at the international level, it cannot be ignored.
b) at point 3, the authors, in the conclusion section, should add a few words for saying that in the next research other techniques should be applied to improve the model.
Author Response
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for your comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Prediction of China’s Grain Consumption from the Perspective of Sustainable Development -- Based on GM(1,1) Model ”( sustainability - 1813268 ). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches.
We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewer’s comments are as flowing:
Point 1: I think the authors should add some notes or small sentences in the texts to emphasize the differences between their work and the OECD-FAO outlook. Indeed, the OECD-FAO outlook is the principal reference at the international level, it cannot be ignored.
Response 1: The reference of the research results of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook have been added in the discussion part of the article, and the differences between them have been expounded.
Point 2: At point 3, the authors, in the conclusion section, should add a few words for saying that in the next research other techniques should be applied to improve the model.
Response 2: The next step of thinking about model optimization has been added at the end of the article.
Special thanks to you for your good comments.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 4 Report
Accept in present form
Author Response
Dear Reviewer,
We are glad and thankful that you approve our modifications.
Special thanks to you again for your good comments.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
