A Statistical Review of Considerations on the Implementation Path of China’s “Double Carbon” Goal

Abstract

The goal of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” is China’s long-term development strategy for low greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (hereinafter referred to as the “double carbon” goal), with the goal that carbon dioxide emissions strive to reach an emissions peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Achieving the goal of “double carbon” is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development. Conforming to the development trend of the times, the “double carbon” goal is the necessary path of industrial transformation. The current situation of China’s energy production, consumption, and utilization in recent years shows that China’s energy has a simple structure, heavy external dependence, and low utilization efficiency which severely restricts the realization of China’s “double carbon” goal. Commencing the analysis of the current situation, this paper summarizes the implementation path from a “carbon emission reduction” and “carbon-negative technology” to accelerate the realization of the “double carbon” goal. First, statistical methods are used to analyze the implementation of a “carbon emission reduction” based on industrial technology reform, an energy structure adjustment, market mechanisms, public participation, and international cooperation. Second, the “carbon negative technology” path is explored in terms of afforestation, carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS), ecological management, and other technologies. In addition, feasible suggestions are made for four relationships, namely, the short and long-term, overall and local, development and emissions reduction, and government and market. This paper contributes to the study of energy development in the world and serves as a reference for follow-up studies.

1. Introduction

Energy is a driving force for human society’s progress and development and the basis of economic and social operations, while the “double carbon” goal is an important way to promote green energy development. Since the reform and opening up, China has achieved significant economic development and become the second-largest economy in the world; however, this rapid growth is based on an excessive consumption of energy resources, and the extensive production and energy utilization in China has caused social and environmental problems, which restricts the development of the social economy and hinders the improvement of people’s living standards.

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly held on 22 September 2020, President Xi Jinping highlighted the need to accelerate the formation of green development and lifestyle and to build an ecological civilization and, for the first time, proposed the “double carbon” goal—striving to achieve peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 [1]. Achieving the “double carbon” goal is of great significance, which will inevitably accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the energy system, promote sustainable development with low-carbon innovation, and gradually upgrade social civilization from an industrial civilization to ecological civilization. In addition, the achievement of the “double carbon” goal will, in turn, force the adjustments of the industrial structure and energy structure, bringing new vitality and vigor for economic development. From a global perspective, the achievement of the goal reflects China’s positive attitude toward global climate change and demonstrates that China has shouldered its responsibility for promoting the cause to build a community of a shared future.

Although the achievement of the “double carbon” goal will positively impact China and the world, there is a long way to go given China’s current technology level and energy and industrial structures. The white paper, “China’s Energy Development in a New Era”, points out that China has formed an energy production system driven by multiple wheels including coal, oil, gas, electricity, nuclear, new energy, and renewable energy. However, the energy problem is still serious, and the realization of the “double carbon” goal is restricted by a number of factors and is faced with great difficulties, such as low-carbon clean energy technologies, an unreasonable industrial structure, the inefficient utilization of coal, etc.; therefore, achieving the goal of “double carbon” is a complicated systematic project and involves a scientific transformation process. A review of the previous literature reveals a lack of articles linking data on the current status of energy production, consumption and utilization for the “double carbon” goal.

The objective of this paper is to present a statistical review of China’s energy production, consumption, and utilization efficiency based on the energy situation in recent years, and it summarizes the implementation paths in terms of technology, energy structure, market mechanisms, public participation, and international cooperation. In the context of green sustainable development and a low-carbon economic transition, thinking about the realization of the “double carbon” goal has certain social and ecological significance and referential values for other countries to deal with their energy emissions and ecological problems. This study links the current energy situation in China with the implementation path of China’s “double carbon” goal, and provides a theoretical basis for China to quickly achieve the “double carbon” goal and promote green and low-carbon energy.

2. China’s Energy Situation

Energy is an important material basis for economic and social development, and its production, consumption and utilization have become an indispensable part of the world’s political and economic landscape. China is a major energy-demanding country, and the goal of “double carbon” cannot be achieved without thinking about energy production, consumption and utilization. Therefore, it is important to analyze the current situation of energy production, consumption and utilization in China, so as to provide a clearer and more objective discussion of the energy challenges faced by China in the process of achieving the “double carbon” goal, and to provide a reference for thinking about the implementation path of the “double carbon” goal.

2.1. Energy Production Status Quo

Although China’s energy resource endowment is “rich in coal, short of oil and gas” [2], its energy production capacity remains high. From the year 2011 to 2020, China’s total energy production showed an overall upward trend. Raw coal production had been declining for three consecutive years since 2013 when it reached 3.974 billion tons, with a decrease of 2.5%, 3.3%, and 9.0% in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. In 2016, under the influence of the supply-side structural reform, all regions and relevant departments in China adequately implemented the requirements of the Opinions of the State Council on Dissolving Excess Capacity in the Coal Industry to Achieve Destructive Development (State Development (2016) No. 7), and actively adopted relevant policies to eliminate a backward production capacity to improve the quality of coal. Crude oil production had been declining for three consecutive years since it reached 214,555,800 tons in 2015. As China’s oil production was undermined by the low world oil prices in 2016, oil companies’ profits fell and they sought to compress investments, cut costs, and reduce crude oil production; however, the decrease in China’s energy production in 2016 due to the supply-side structural reforms and world oil prices only had temporary impacts. The economic development of China has created growing energy demands in various fields and, therefore, a huge domestic market for energy. Meanwhile, as industry is the main area of energy consumption, and China was accelerating the steps of its industrialization, the demand for energy from industrial production was also increasing. According to the statistics, raw coal production was 3.900 billion tce in 2020, remaining the dominant portion in China’s energy production, followed by crude oil production of 19,476.90 million tce. This shows that China needs enormous energy resources, which boosts energy production (see Figure 1).

2.2. Energy Consumption Structure

China has become the world’s largest energy consumer, with an energy structure still dominated by coal and other fossil fuels and with a too low proportion of non-fossil energy (see Figure 2). This energy structure can hardly change substantially for quite a long time into the future [3]. China needs to vigorously develop clean energy to achieve the “double carbon” goal. At the same time, China is the world’s largest energy importer with a continuously growing external dependence on oil and gas [4]; therefore, under the premise of continued industrialization, China’s demand for energy will keep increasing in the future. It needs to remove its foreign dependence on fossil energy and to ensure energy security [5,6], with the key goal being to vigorously reduce the proportion of fossil energy utilization such as coal, gradually rising the proportion of clean energy, and non-fossil energy consumption [7,8], and improving the energy self-sufficiency rate.

2.3. Energy Efficiency

The energy utilization efficiency can be reflected by the energy consumption per unit of GDP and the coefficient of correlation. In 2020, China’s reduction rate of energy consumption per unit of GDP continued to increase and the energy intensity continued to decrease, which meant that China’s energy utilization efficiency was going up year by year. Despite the seemingly high energy utilization rate of China, it has a large gap with the rest of the world and developed countries. According to the statistics, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2019 was 410 g of standard coal/USD, 1.7 times the world average and 2.9 times the average of developed countries (see Figure 3). The main reason for this is that China mainly produces high energy consuming and low value-added products with a high carbon emission intensity, while developed countries mainly produce low energy consuming and high value-added products; therefore, to maintain China’s economic growth in the context of “double carbon”, it is necessary to reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP [9] and to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the energy industry. The “supply-side” reform should focus on replacing fossil energy with clean energy, where the key is to achieve carbon neutrality in the electric power industry; the “demand-side” reform is to rely on advanced technologies to strengthen energy conservation and emissions reductions in the electric power, hydrogen and thermal energy industries to create a cleaner energy supply system [10,11].

From three aspects, namely, energy production, consumption, and utilization efficiency in China, it can be seen that there are many problems with China’s energy. China’s energy structure is still heavily weighted towards coal, with fossil fuels as the main energy source and a low proportion of non-fossil fuels. In addition, the high intensity of exploitation and great foreign dependence make it impossible for China to guarantee energy security. Moreover, China has a low utilization rate and high pollution in energy utilization. All these problems need to be solved urgently; reasonable goal programming and an implementation path will accelerate the realization of the “double carbon” goal.

3. “Double Carbon” Goal Programming and Implementation Path

3.1. “Double Carbon” Goal Programming

In response to global warming and China’s existing energy problems, as the world’s largest developing country and carbon emitter, China has proposed the “double carbon” goal program, which consists of two stages, namely, “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, for carbon reduction. To be specific, we promised to peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

To reach peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and achieve a comprehensive transformation of economic and social development to green economic development. First, we will continue to improve the energy utilization rate of key energy-consuming industries to reach the international advanced level and to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP. Second, involves increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in the energy consumption structure, and continuing to promote the development of clean energy to achieve a total installed capacity of more than 1.2 billion kilowatts covering wind power and solar power generation [12,13]. Finally, the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, put forward the notion to promote ecological balance with a forest coverage rate of about 25% and forest stock up to 19 billion cubic meters.

This includes achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and establishing an all-round economic system with green, low-carbon cyclic development and a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. On the one hand, to continuously improve the energy utilization rate to catch up to the international advanced level, and on the other hand, to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to more than 80% [14].

3.2. Forecast of a “Double Carbon” Goal Achievement

With the introduction of the “double carbon” goal plan, combined with China’s energy development trend and related policies, researchers have divided the change in China’s energy consumption pattern into three stages: the slow transition period, critical transition period and transition completion period (see Figure 4), to judge the trend of China’s energy consumption pattern.

Phase I: Slow Transition Period (2021~2030)

Before 2030, in the face of the “carbon peak” requirements to meet the incremental demand for new energy, this period will vigorously develop new energy sources such as wind and light, but due to the small base, its share in the energy mix will grow slowly, from 15% to 29% [15], becoming a supplementary energy source. However, due to China’s energy consumption structure in favor of coal, the growth of new energy cannot catch up with the amount of the energy demand; therefore, in a short period, coal consumption will tend to be stable or be slightly increased [15].

Phase II: Critical Transition Period (2031~2050)

From 2031 to 2050, after the “carbon peak”, new energy sources will not only be the main source of energy demand but also start to replace fossil energy sources such as coal, changing from supplementary energy sources to alternative energy sources. In this stage, coal and new energy development are in a cooperative and competitive relationship. In this cooperation, to a certain extent, coal consumption will be affected by the “carbon emission” constraint, and the use of coal will gradually be concentrated on carbon reduction agents, power peaking [16] and the security of energy supply [17,18]. Coal will change from a basic energy source to a secure energy source and “make way” for the development of new energy sources, in line with new energy development [19]. In this competitive environment, the further development of low-carbon clean energy technologies may achieve disruptive technological breakthroughs in the coal sector, providing opportunities for the coal industry to compete with new energy sources and sustainable development, but there will also be another situation, namely, the development of new energy technology to obtain breakthrough results. Consumption, energy storage, stability and other related issues will be effectively solved, then, the development space of the coal industry will be limited.

Phase III: Transition Completion Period (2051~2060)

From 2051 to 2060, as the coal industry cooperates with the “carbon emission reduction” process, the “carbon neutrality” goal will also enter the final period of attack, and the proportion of new energy in the energy consumption structure will increase to 50~80% [15], gradually replacing coal as the main energy source [20], basically realizing industrial transformation. While coal will be affected by “carbon emissions” [15], the utilization of coal will be left only for power peaking, a carbon reduction agent and for security of the energy supply and other irreplaceable uses, from security energy to support energy.

3.3. Implementation Path

To introduce the ecological concept that “green mountains are also golden mountains” and to build such an ecological environment to accelerate the realization of the “double carbon” goal, China has proposed two implementation paths as backed by the current policy system and laws and regulations (see Figure 5). Path 1: mainly through a carbon emissions reduction, which is to be realized via technology, the market, the public and national cooperation; path 2: mainly through “negative carbon technology”, i.e., the technology for removing carbon dioxide. Both paths should be followed to speed up the realization of and transition from a “carbon peak” to “carbon neutrality”.

3.3.1. Reducing Carbon Emissions

Industrial Technology Reform

Being the second-largest economy in the world, China is still at a later stage of an industrial economy [21,22]. Industry is the main area for energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, which mainly occur in high energy-consuming sectors such as electric power, metallurgy, transportation, the chemical industry, and the building materials sector [23,24]. Although high energy-consuming industries create vast economic wealth, they also bring certain impacts and hidden dangers of the future energy crisis due to their huge energy consumption, heavy pollution, and high emissions. Moreover, as these industries are mainly based on the use of traditional thermal power technology (see Figure 6 and Figure 7), we should first consider replacing thermal power generation with clean power generation to push through industrial-technological reform. That means the high energy-consuming industries should not only focus on developing new technologies but also gradually expand the scale of clean and low-carbon energy generation to foster clean energy industries [25]. This is an inevitable choice to achieve the green and healthy development of China’s economy and is the main road to promote the realization of China’s “double carbon” goal.

Energy Structure Adjustment

In the future, the world’s energy structure will tend to be composed of clean, low-carbon, and green energy sources. Development based on energy revolution is the only way leading to the implementation of “carbon neutrality” and the fulfilment of the “double carbon” goal. While the concept of green and sustainable development has been thoroughly adopted, the emergence and development of new energy sources have led to profound changes in China’s energy structure, from heavy pollution and a high energy consumption to a cleaner, more efficient structure. Non-fossil fuels, due to uneven distribution and high costs, can hardly achieve a large-scale development; therefore, fossil energy will remain an important component in China’s energy consumption structure in the future [26]. Although in the short term the structure will still be dominated by fossil fuels such as coal and oil, in the long term, clean energy sources such as wind, water, solar, hydrogen, and nuclear energy will undergo rapid development and be utilized at a large scale, causing revolutionary changes in the energy structure [27,28], where non-fossil fuels will account for 73% (see Figure 8).

Carbon Trading

Under the control of the “double carbon” goal, the construction of a national carbon market [23,29,30,31] is not only intended to use market mechanisms to control the carbon emissions of enterprises, but also as an initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote green low-carbon development [32].

Carbon trading [33] refers to the trading of carbon emission rights. The government defines a certain amount of total carbon emissions, issues or sells by auction the emission allowances to emitters, and on this basis grants the emitters the right to freely buy and sell emission rights, which then become tradable commodities in this process [34]. The trading of carbon emission rights on the carbon market exerts certain impacts so that relevant industries reset the price of those emission rights [35]. Due to chain effects, all sectors in the industrial chain are then forced to increase their prices, and producers have to then raise their product prices accordingly. Consumers, as influenced by the price elasticity of demand, then reduce their consumption of these products, which ultimately results in an oversupply and leads to a reduction in the output of upstream industries; therefore, carbon trading can not only promote the innovation and development of low-carbon production technologies, but also encourage the exploitation and utilization of clean energy by enterprises [30,36,37,38].

Along with the development of the carbon trading system, China launched the national carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on 16 July 2021 [39], which covers more than two thousand domestic power enterprises. By the end of 2021, the global ETS showed a relatively high contract performance rate for the first contract year, with quite a large surplus of carbon emission allowances remaining; however, the practices of other regions demonstrated that the construction of the carbon market is a long-term and lengthy process for gradual development and improvements.

Public Participation

Two documents on “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, namely, the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, and the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peak Before 2030, have been issued successively, are expected to accelerate the deployment of “Green Low Carbon Action for All”, and further highlight the importance of promoting public participation and awareness for achieving the “double carbon” goal. According to the documents, public behaviors are an indispensable part of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting carbon emissions reductions, and public participation is an important drive for transforming lifestyle and consumption patterns toward green production and green consumption.

International Cooperation

As global warming has already occurred, countries around the world should take active measures to meet the challenge and mobilize all necessary resources to adapt to climate change and reduce the impacts of disasters [40]. As a developing country, in the transition stage of industrialization, China has large regional gaps in its resource endowments and low-carbon technologies, and substantial regional differences in economic development. Different countries at different stages of development also display marked differences in their energy structure, industrial structure, technological level, and economic development [41,42]; therefore, countries around the world should strengthen communication and cooperation, work out a reasonable route to realize the net-zero emissions goal, build a global carbon market [43], formulate long-term low-carbon emission development strategies, accelerate climate adaptation actions, and integrate climate policies with economic development to build a community of a shared future for humankind [44,45].

3.3.2. Carbon Negative Technology

The goal of “double carbon” cannot be delivered without the support of science and technology [46]. Carbon negative technology is the process of reducing the carbon dioxide produced by human activities through physical or chemical means or with some management tools. On the one hand, we should make great efforts to plant trees to improve the forestry carbon sink capacity [41,42,47,48,49,50], we should strengthen the development of our system and capacity for ecological and environmental governance, and encourage the continuous improvement of ecosystem quality [51]. As the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems, forests perform irreplaceable functions in reducing GHG concentrations and, thus, are regarded as one of the most directly effective means for carbon sequestration [52]. On the other hand, carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology (CCUS) should be applied to capture, utilize and store carbon dioxide [47,48,49,50,53,54,55,56,57,58], which mainly separates carbon dioxide from emission sources and collects it for storage with various technologies [59]. This way, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced to achieve the ultimate goal of “carbon neutrality”.

4. Influence

4.1. China

4.1.1. Promoting Economic Development

Reducing Economic Disparities between Eastern and Western Regions

China’s east and west regions have uneven economic development [60] and large differences in their energy resource endowments [61]. Eastern China is densely populated and economically developed, with a strong and rapidly growing energy demand, but there is a shortage of resources such as coal, oil and gas and hydro energy, which are mostly distributed in the western region. At present, China’s clean renewable energy is mainly developed in southwest hydropower, northwest photovoltaic, coastal wind power and other fields, and this is conducive to the formation of a concentrated and efficient scale development model [62], bringing new development opportunities for the western region, driving the economic development of the western region, narrowing the economy of the eastern and western regions, and promoting balanced development.

Promote Industrial Transformation

Since the reform and opening up, the exploitation of energy has promoted the development of China’s industrial manufacturing industry; however, crude energy extraction and inefficient utilization has led to environmental pollution in the process of industry generation. The development of a “double carbon” economy is conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of primary manufacturing industries to green and low-carbon industries. In essence, the “double carbon” goal is an extremely broad and profound green industrial revolution [63], which is conducive to accelerating the environmental protection industry into a new stage of development, namely, one of “pollution reduction and carbon reduction” collaborative governance [64], promoting the advancement of energy-intensive industries to the green cycle development stage, and providing new development opportunities for energy-intensive industries.

4.1.2. Create a Green Ecological Environment

China’s green development concept of “green mountains are also golden mountains “ is environmentally responsible, in line with the development trend of the times, and is conducive to building a clean and beautiful new environment. We insist on vigorously developing clean and renewable energy and reducing pollutant emissions, as well as reducing the environmental problems caused by fossil energy production and consumption, which is conducive to maintaining national ecological security and building an ecological security barrier.

4.1.3. Ensuring Energy Security

With China’s high external dependence on oil and natural gas, the “double carbon” goal accelerates the process of China’s energy transition and energy revolution. By vigorously developing clean energy and improving its energy utilization efficiency, China will gradually remove its dependence on fossil energy sources such as coal, oil and gas, and accelerate the transformation from “high carbon” to “low carbon” and, then, from “low carbon” to “zero carbon” [65]. While forcing a clean energy transition, China will continue to reduce its energy dependence on foreign countries and improve its energy self-sufficiency, thus, ensuring the security of the national energy supply.

4.1.4. Building a Community of Human Destiny

It is China’s solemn commitment to the world to strive to achieve “carbon peak” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060. The “double carbon” goal is related to the rise of China and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, which is an important way for China to follow and lead the future international development trend and to enhance its international status and competitiveness, as well as being an important contribution to building a community of human destiny.

4.2. World

Achieving the “double carbon” goal will also have a huge impact on the world’s economy, energy and environment. The EU has announced plans to implement a “carbon border adjustment tax” in 2021 [66], and the U.S. has issued a paper to begin discussions on this regulatory measure. The official launch of the “carbon border adjustment tax” means that all products that do not meet the European and American emission standards will have to pay additional taxes when they enter the European and American markets. China’s export markets are mainly in Europe and the United States, where the proportion of high energy-consuming and high-emission industries such as iron and steel, chemicals, etc., is high. The “double carbon“ goal proposed by China can first break the “carbon barrier“ and eliminate the potential risk of carbon taxation on Chinese exports. Second, the development of China’s clean energy industry accelerates the construction of the “global energy Internet”, which represents a development path of “one belt and one road” along with the countries and regions of water, wind, light and other types of energy into electricity and long-distance transmission [67], to maximize the efficiency and economy of clean renewable energy, thereby driving the development of a large number of strategic new industries. Finally, it will help to explore a new path of international cooperation for global climate governance by pursuing the establishment of a global carbon market in countries around the world and seeking multilateral cooperation with the European and American regions.

5. Discussions

5.1. Challenges

From China’s energy production, consumption and utilization, it is clear that achieving the “double carbon” goal will require overcoming difficulties. Not only do we have to overcome the challenges of a coal-based and single energy structure, a small proportion of non-fossil energy, and a high degree of external dependence, but we also face a large base of carbon emissions, an immaturity in developing low-carbon clean energy technologies, and an unreasonable industrial structure; therefore, achieving “carbon neutrality” in China by 2060 is a daunting task, and it is precisely this daunting task that demonstrates the commitment of a responsible power.

5.1.1. Irrational Energy Structure

China is a big carbon-emitting country, and China’s CO₂ emissions are mainly from fossil energy sources such as coal [68], while in terms of energy structure, China’s non-fossil energy sources account for a small percentage, and its production and life are highly dependent on coal energy [69]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that in 2020, China’s coal consumption accounted for 56.8% of the energy consumption structure and its oil consumption accounted for 18.9% [70], while the United States and the European Union’s coal consumption was only 6% and 4%, respectively, and the United States and the EU’s coal consumption accounted for only 10% combined. This shows that China’s energy structure has an obvious irrationality, and the task of optimizing and adjusting the energy structure is arduous; therefore, China has a long way to go to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, taking into account its actual national conditions.

5.1.2. High Carbon Emissions

China is in a phase of rapid industrialization and an accelerated modernization transition, with a much higher potential demand for high-carbon energy than other economies, while its carbon emissions are growing rapidly and occupy the first place in the world [71], accounting for 30.9% of the world’s total CO₂ emissions (see Figure 9). On the one hand, China is in the stage of industrialization and development, the demand for fossil energy is high, and the energy structure is dominated by fossil energy where carbon emissions will continue to increase. Moreover, China’s clean energy technology is relatively weak and needs to be improved; therefore, this will affect the process of achieving the “double carbon” goal for a period of time. On the other hand, China is a country with a large population base and high anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. In addition, China’s urbanization is accelerating, leading to the expansion of infrastructure construction and an increasing demand for energy and carbon-intensive products; thus, further increasing the difficulty of achieving the “double carbon” goal.

5.1.3. Low-Carbon Clean Energy Technologies Are Relatively Weak

To achieve the “double carbon” goal, technological innovation is needed to develop low-carbon clean energy technologies, mainly including carbon reduction technology and carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology; however, at present, China’s low-carbon clean energy technologies are immature and still need to be explored and researched. China needs to choose the right clean technology and this is not only related to achieving the “double carbon” goal at a lower cost, but it also has an important role in China’s economic development and energy security. Moreover, according to a survey concerning China’s “carbon neutrality” optimal path compared with the U.S.’ “carbon neutrality” optimal path, China’s proposed carbon neutrality requires an investment of CNY 139 trillion, or about CNY 3.9 trillion/year. This estimated annual cost of achieving “carbon neutrality” is three times the annual cost of achieving “carbon neutrality” in the U.S. (about RMB 1.09 trillion/year) [72], which shows the technology gap between the U.S. and China; therefore, the innovation and development of low-carbon clean energy technologies will affect the achievement of the “double carbon” goal.

5.1.4. Irrational Industrial Structure

The development of China’s economy still relies on a heavy chemical industry and high energy consumption manufacturing industry, and the overall production factor level is low, the digitalization level is weak, and the degree of financial productization of carbon assets is low, which has a big gap compared with developed countries. Moreover, China’s end-use energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the heavy chemical industry, and its transformation and upgrading may affect the development of the economy and generate high unemployment rates. China’s heavy chemical-based industrial structure is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term, and huge economic growth will require the support of the heavy chemical industry; therefore, in the short term, this unreasonable industrial structure will inevitably affect the achievement of the “double carbon” goal.

5.2. Suggestions

Achieving the goal of “double carbon” is a required milestone for promoting high-quality development. As China has already shifted from a stage of high-speed growth to high-quality development, extensive development is no longer suitable for the current situation. We must carry out a complete green transformation of the economy and society, with a focus on solving the outstanding problems caused by resource and environmental constraints, and speed up the formation of an industrial structure, production mode, lifestyle, and spatial pattern that are resource-conserving and environmentally-protective. The government should incorporate the “double carbon” goal into the whole process of ecological civilization construction, make great efforts to deliver the “double carbon” goal in an orderly and effective manner, unswervingly implement the new development concepts, and properly deal with the relationships between development and an emissions reduction, the overall and local, the short-term and long-term [54,73,74,75], as well as between the government and the market, ensuring that the “double carbon” goal is achieved as scheduled (see Figure 10).

5.2.1. Dealing with the Short-Term and Long-Term Relationship

We should effectively fulfill the relevant requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to—based on our national realities where coal is the dominant energy source and paying adequate attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal [76]—increase the capacity for new energy consumption, and to motivate the optimal combination of coal and new energy [58,59,60,77,78,79,80,81]. We still need to vigorously promote green and low-carbon technology research and development, constantly improve the scientific assessment mechanism, and strongly boost the energy revolution to ensure the energy supply [82].

Long-Term Development of Low-Carbon Clean Energy Technologies

From the perspective of energy structure, China has been vigorously promoting an energy structure adjustment in recent years [83]. According to the Annual Development Report on World Energy (2021), the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption has dropped from 68.5% in 2000 to 56.8% in 2020, yet it is still dominant in China’s energy structure, which is difficult to change in the short run. It is necessary for China to energetically develop new energy sources and promote an energy structure transition from high-carbon to low-carbon [63]. At the same time, we need to adopt innovative low-carbon, clean energy technologies to improve the energy utilization efficiency and enhance the centralized utilization of coal [84].

Ensuring Energy Security in the Long Term

According to the statistics for 2020, China’s coal consumption still accounted for 56.8% of its total primary energy consumption. At present, China has quite a simple energy structure that is always dominated by coal. Moreover, China’s energy supply is highly dependent on the international market. According to data from the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, China’s import dependence on oil and natural gas had risen to 73% and 43%, respectively, in 2020 and it needed to import about 300 million tons of coal every year; thus, energy security is of great importance for China. For this purpose, China should first, based on the national conditions, produce a diversified energy supply, establish an energy system dominated by clean renewable energy [85] with multiple energy sources complementing each other [86], continuously adjust and reform the simplex coal-dominated energy structure, build a comprehensive energy system, and improve its level of energy security, so as to promote a clean and low-carbon energy transformation while ensuring energy supply security. Second, China should always prioritize the supply security of electricity power [87], and build a new power system mainly based on new energy sources [88,89], which is a key initiative to drive forward the clean and low-carbon transformation of energy [90]. Finally, China should focus on the increase and clean utilization of fossil energy reserves [91], and continuously develop clean renewable energy.

Adhering to Energy Control in the Short Term

It will be a long-lasting, arduous task to deliver the “double carbon” goal. According to the statistics, China’s oil production reached 19,476.90 million tons in 2020, up to 18.9% in the consumption structure, second only to coal in China’s energy system. In the short term, China needs to control the growth of oil production and consumption. It should also gradually reduce its coal consumption and focus on developing renewable energy [92].

5.2.2. Dealing with the Overall–Local Relationship

China is a vast country with uneven regional and urban–rural development [93], with regional differences in the stages and levels of economic development, industrial structures and layout, energy structures, emissions reduction capacity, and employment structures [94]. We should take into account the current goals and tasks as well as local realities, take practical approaches and avoid a “one size fits all” [95] approach or unrealistic competition, and design operable “carbon reduction” action plans by keeping up the scientific working pace and intensity. In the process of achieving the goal, those regions with concentrated high-carbon industries and backwards economies should follow the example of the EU’s fair transition mechanism, that is, where the government funds a low-carbon transition or “carbon neutrality” to subsidize the “double carbon” work of the region [96], and to provide stronger policy support for employment and entrepreneurship. In the work narrowing the economic differences between the eastern and western regions [97], emphasis should be placed on scientific planning for the carbon emissions reduction goals relying on regional advantages to build a green, low-carbon economic system [98].

5.2.3. Dealing with the Development–Emissions Reduction Relationship

Science and technology are the primary productive forces, and productivity determines the mode of production. Moreover, transformation of the production mode and production technology has positive effects on green and low-carbon development. China’s coal chemical industry has a great potential and bright development prospects. First of all, we should improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of coal as an industrial chemical, carry out technical transformation based on the existing scale advantages, improve the level of industrial support and extend the industrial chain in terms of both R&D and the market, so as to facilitate the high-end, diversified and low-carbon development of the coal chemical industry. Secondly, we should take strengthening scientific and technological innovation as the most pressing task, accelerate the research and development of key and core technologies, and actively develop materials such as coal-based special fuels and coal-based biodegradables. Finally, we should focus on improving the processes, technologies and systematic management related to coal development and utilization, increasing the coal utilization efficiency and system energy-saving, coupling coal with new energy for chemical conversion, power generation and combustion [99], and employing technologies such as the integration of wind, solar, hydro, thermal power and power storage, etc., to enhance the scale of new energy utilization.

5.2.4. Joint Guidance of the Market and Government

This involves adhering to a combination of the government’s “visible hand” and the market’s “invisible hand”, and giving play to the government’s macro-control and the market’s law of value to guide the realization of the “double carbon” goal. To achieve the goal, the government and the market need to “turn the two wheels together”. First, it is necessary to rely on the joint guidance of the market and government [100,101]. Under such management and control, scientific, and reasonable pressure mechanisms and incentive mechanisms will be formed [69], facilitating the upgrading, transformation or elimination of low value-added, high energy consumption and high pollution enterprises in an orderly manner [102], with efforts trying to guide the accelerated development of high value-added enterprises with high technology, low emissions or even “zero carbon emissions”. Thus, funds in the market can spontaneously flow to the green low-carbon fields, which in turn will stimulate enterprises to further develop low-carbon technologies [103], form low-carbon production patterns, promote the cyclic, symbiotic development of clean energy, and ultimately, green, low-carbon industrial chains will come into being. Second, we need to build a reasonable carbon market [104] and control the total carbon emissions to retroactively “force” an economic transformation and upgrade, which is an important way to achieve industrial transformation. Finally, it is necessary to intensify “carbon inclusion” [105] to encourage the engagement of small enterprises and the public in carbon reductions and, thus, expedite the achievement of the emissions reduction goals [106].

6. Conclusions and Policy Implications

The “double carbon” goal is a major strategic decision made by China through careful consideration, an extensive, profound systemic revolution [107,108], and one the most important driving forces for the progress of human civilization, which plays a fundamental role in shaping the paradigm of economic development. It is a serious commitment to building a community of a shared future for humankind, and a manifestation of China’s responsibility and commitment as a global power. It should become part of the overall planning of China’s ecological civilization construction [109].

At present, China is not only faced with a simplex energy structure dominated by coal, but also energy production and consumption rates that are increasing year by year. At the same time, China has a heavy dependence on foreign countries for energy, endangering its energy security in the future. In this regard, China has proposed the goal of “double carbon” and integrated it into the overall national economic and social development, upholding a system concept of following implementation paths including industrial technology reform, an energy structure adjustment, market mechanism regulation, public participation, international cooperation, “carbon-negative technology”, etc. These approaches serve as the guidance for feasible recommendations. First, in the long run, we should develop clean energy and clean technologies to ensure energy security [110], adjust the energy structure and adhere to green, low-carbon development. Second, in the short term, we should gradually control oil consumption and gradually reduce coal consumption. At the same time, we should vigorously develop clean energy in the western regions, and continuously close the gaps caused by the imbalanced economic development between the east and the west regions. The last, involves insisting on the joint guidance of the market and the government, and a combination of the government’s “visible hand” and the market’s “invisible hand” [111].

To “accurately grasp the new development stage, thoroughly implement the new development concept, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern” is the basic guideline for China’s high-quality economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and for a longer period in the future [112]. Led by the overall green transformation of the economy and industry, and taking the development of green, low-carbon energy technologies as the key driving force, China is accelerating the formation of an industrial structure, production mode, lifestyle, and spatial pattern that are resources-conserving and environmentally-protective. The process to deliver the “double carbon” goal will not only encourage China’s green, low-carbon development and economic development but also promote the world’s green and sustainable development.