Environmental Pollution, Terrorism, and Mortality Rate in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature
3. Econometric Methodology
Fourier Bootstrapping ARDL Method
- Causality Test
4. Data
5. Empirical Results
6. Causality Results
- The evidence of one-way causality from economic growth to environmental pollution was determined for Türkiye and China, but, for India and Russia, the evidence of one-way causality was found from environmental pollution to economic growth.
- The results indicate the causality between terrorism and environmental pollution. Hence, for Russia, Türkiye, India, and China, the evidence of unidirectional causality was found from terrorism to environmental pollution. The result of the unidirectional causality from terrorism to CO2 emissions is similar to [2,28].
- None causality between terrorism and mortality rate was determined for Russia. In India and Türkiye, the evidence of one-way causality from terrorism to mortality rate was determined, as was bi-directional causality for China.
- Except in China, the evidence of unidirectional causality was found from T to Y. For China, the evidence for none causality was found.
- Unidirectional causality was found from economic growth to morality for India and China, and the evidence of none causality was found for Türkiye and Russia.
7. Discussion
8. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable Description | |||||
Variable: | Description: | Source: | |||
Economic growth (y) | Real GDP in US dollars | World Bank (WB) | |||
Environmental pollution (c) | CO2 emissions (kt) | World Bank (WB) | |||
Terrorism (t) | Number of people dead by terrorist attacks | GTI and RAND | |||
Mortality rate (d) | Mortality rate, adult, female and male (per 1000 female and male adults) | World Bank (WB) | |||
GTI Index | |||||
Rank | Countries | 2021 Score | Change 2011–2021 | Change 2020–2021 | |
12 | India | 7.432 | −0.691 | −0.235 | |
44 | Russia | 4.219 | −3.328 | −0.465 | |
67 | China | 1.863 | −3.245 | −0.704 | |
23 | Türkiye | 5.651 | −1.261 | −0.820 | |
EPI Index | |||||
Rank | Countries | 2022 Score | 10-year Change | ||
180 | India | 18.90 | −0.6 | ||
112 | Russia | 37.50 | 1.6 | ||
160 | China | 28.4 | 11.4 | ||
172 | Türkiye | 26.3 | −0.5 |
Descriptive Statistics | ||||||||
China | India | |||||||
c | d | t | y | c | d | t | y | |
Maximum | 3.269 | 3.07 | 0.41 | 6.83 | 3.783 | 4.296 | 0.580 | 3.194 |
Skewness | −0.32 | −0.98 | −0.55 | 0.68 | 0.311 | 0.177 | 0.330 | 0.0277 |
Kurtosis | 1.624 | 3.06 | 1.77 | 1.07 | 1.779 | 1.626 | 1.613 | 1.674 |
Türkiye | Russian Federation | |||||||
c | d | t | y | c | d | t | y | |
Maximum | 2.214 | 4.296 | 0.580 | 3.60 | 2.214 | 3.246 | 3.406 | 3.117 |
Skewness | 0.696 | 0.177 | 0.330 | 2.20 | 1.696 | 1.97 | 0.586 | 0.308 |
Kurtosis | 2.590 | 1.626 | 1.613 | 2.58 | 2.590 | 1.33 | 1.787 | 1.215 |
Unit Root Test | ||||||||
China | India | Türkiye | Russian Federation | |||||
ADF | KPSS | ADF | KPSS | ADF | KPSS | ADF | KPSS | |
t | −0.898 | 0.976 | −1.27 | 0.981 | −1.760 | 0.971 | −1.684 | 0.803 |
dt | −5.962 | 0.036 | −4.76 | 0.142 | −7.664 | 0.207 | −6.804 | 0.173 |
Y | −1.15 | 0.986 | 0.335 | 0.894 | −0.171 | 0.976 | −1.605 | 0.969 |
dY | −8.065 | 0.016 | −3.285 | 0.057 | −5.624 | 0.223 | −8.963 | 0.185 |
c | −1.184 | 0.978 | −0.393 | 0.838 | −0.688 | 0.870 | −1.225 | 0.858 |
dc | −5.088 | 0.074 | −7.002 | 0.123 | −5.892 | 0.113 | −5.508 | 0.162 |
d | −1.004 | 0.883 | −1.298 | 0.994 | −1.390 | 0.944 | −1.674 | 0.909 |
dd | −4.996 | 0.055 | −5.091 | 0.099 | −5.863 | 0.105 | −8.697 | 0.031 |
Country | Dependent Variable/Independent Variable | F | F * | Findep | F * Indep | t | T * | Cointegration Status |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
India | (y/d, c, t) | 18.28 | 15.8 | 15.563 | 14.576 | −5.19 | −3.01 | Cointegration |
(d/c, t, y) | 1.87 | 2.25 | 3.4 | 3.63 | −0.99 | 0.99 | No-Cointegration | |
(c/t, y, d) | 9.56 | 3.93 | 2.48 | 3.99 | −3.01 | −3.53 | Degenerate 1 | |
(t/y, d, c) | 3.15 | 4.29 | 0.71 | 5.042 | −0.81 | −4.12 | No-Cointegration | |
China | (y/d, c, t) | 3.335 | 4.41 | 4.85 | 4.98 | −3.1 | −1.023 | No-Cointegration |
(d/c, t, y) | 1.23 | 3.05 | 1.56 | 4.12 | −1.78 | −2.98 | No-Cointegration | |
(c/t, y, d) | 7.652 | 7.00 | 8.96 | 7.01 | −4.1 | −3.89 | Cointegration | |
(t/y, d, c) | 5.45 | 4.03 | 2.05 | 6.89 | −2.92 | −2.89 | Degenerate 1 | |
Türkiye | (y/d, c, t) | 7.17 | 6.03 | 7.96 | 6.63 | −3.83 | −3.36 | Cointegration |
(d/c, t, y) | 11.23 | 4.46 | 1.89 | 5.16 | −2.96 | −2.89 | Degenerate 1 | |
(c/t, y, d) | 8.56 | 7.1 | 2.83 | 3.63 | −2.19 | −2.18 | Degenerate 1 | |
(t/y, d, c) | 1.66 | 1.81 | 1.92 | 2.02 | −0.71 | −0.89 | No-Cointegration | |
Russia | (y/d, co, t) | 13.63 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 11.56 | −4.26 | −3.81 | Cointegration |
(d/co, t, y) | 8.12 | 7.21 | 2.36 | 5.12 | −2.12 | −3.09 | Degenerate 1 | |
(c/t, y, d) | 1.96 | 2.36 | 3.01 | 3.96 | −0.89 | −0.93 | No-Cointegration | |
(t/y, d, c) | 1.73 | 1.81 | 1.11 | 1.26 | −1.01 | −1.21 | No-Cointegration |
India (Dependent Variable: y) | China (Dependent Variable: c) | Türkiye (Dependent Variable: y) | Russia (Dependent Variable: y) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ly | - | 0.48 (2.36) | - | - |
lt | 0.115 (1.98) | 0.31 (1.85) | 0.18 (1.91) | 0.193 (1.94) |
ld | 0.226 (2.02) | 0.11 (2.03) | 0.19 (2.14) | 0.32 (2.45) |
lc | 0.31 (1.83) | - | 0.046 (1.99) | 0.0027 (1.88) |
ecm | −0.38 (1.92) | −0.41 (2.18) | −0.36 (1.96) | −0.43 (1.88) |
F1 | 0.00012 (1.76) | 0.0003 (1.93) | −0.0002 (2.46) | −0.009 (2.42) |
F2 | −0.00007 (1.88) | 0.00006 (1.81) | 0.00001 (2.35) | 0.0007 (2.55) |
R2 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
Direction of Causality | |||||
Δly→Δlt Δlt→Δly | Δly→Δlc Δlc→Δly | Δly →Δld Δld→Δly | Δld→Δlc Δlc→Δld | Δlc →Δlt Δlt→Δlc | Δlt→Δld Δld→Δlt |
India | |||||
0.78 (0.0152) 8.766 (0.019) | 0.66 (0.718) 8.321 (0.015) | 7.0258 (0.089) 0.11 (0.95) | 1.589 (0.451) 9.85 (0.007) | 1.247 (0.535) 8.494 (0.01) | 7.08 (0.96) 0.089 (0.01) |
Unidirectional T→Y | Unidirectional C→Y | Unidirectional Y→D | Unidirectional C→D | Unidirectional T→C | Unidirectional T→D |
China | |||||
1.21 (0.07) 0.112 (0.07) | 11.72 (0.001) 0.77 (0.71) | 9.98 (0.008) 0.18 (0.92) | 0.43 (0.07) 5.89 (0.65) | 0.95 (0.03) 7.203 (0.02) | 6.78 (0.07) 7.71 (0.02) |
None | Unidirectional Y→C | Unidirectional Y→D | Unidirectional C→D | Unidirectional T→C | Bidirectional |
Türkiye | |||||
0.734 (0.007) 9.76 (0.01) | 8.483 (0.803) 1.250 (0.54) | 0.904 (0.64) 1.19 (0.55) | 0.98 (0.612) 7.388 (0.019) | 1.470 (0.489) 6.338 (0.01) | 9.71 (0.75) 0.50 (0.08) |
Unidirectional T→Y | Y→C | None | Unidirectional C→D | Unidirectional T→C | Unidirectional T→D |
Russia | |||||
1.87 (0.013) 7.12 (0.58) | 0.38 (0.015) 7.02 (0.619) | 0.38 (0.79) 0.61 (0.78) | 0.89 (0.002) 0.27 (0.07) | 0.151 (0.93) 5.46 (0.07) | 0.47 (0.12) 0.187 (0.92) |
Unidirectional T→Y | Unidirectional C→Y | None | None | Unidirectional T→C | None |
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Bildirici, M.E.; Genç, S.Y.; Castanho, R.A. Environmental Pollution, Terrorism, and Mortality Rate in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye. Sustainability 2022, 14, 12649. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912649
Bildirici ME, Genç SY, Castanho RA. Environmental Pollution, Terrorism, and Mortality Rate in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye. Sustainability. 2022; 14(19):12649. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912649
Chicago/Turabian StyleBildirici, Melike E., Sema Yılmaz Genç, and Rui Alexandre Castanho. 2022. "Environmental Pollution, Terrorism, and Mortality Rate in China, India, Russia, and Türkiye" Sustainability 14, no. 19: 12649. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912649