1. Introduction
Food security encompasses food, its production, commerce, and nutrition, as well as the processes by which people and nations sustain access to food across time in the face of diverse challenges [
1]. When the food system, which includes food supply, access to food, and consumption, is affected by a variety of variables, such as climate change, food security is compromised. Water and food security are critical concerns as a result of climate change, as both are extremely subjective to shifting climatic trends [
2]. Global climate change-related issues, such as increasing temperature, the occurrence of droughts, and variability of weather will continue to mount on the existing agricultural ecosystems. Accelerated increases in GHGs in the environment are primary contributors to climate change.
Climate change can have several different effects on food systems, ranging from direct impacts on crop production (e.g., changes in rainfall resulting in drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures resulting in changes in the length of the growing season) to market, food price, and supply chain infrastructure changes [
3]. Direct impacts refer to the effects on specific agricultural production systems produced by changes in physical features, such as temperature levels and rainfall distribution [
4]. An increase in temperature may bring about a sudden change in the overall condition of an area [
5]. Temperature increases can cause a rapid shift in the overall state of the environment. A temperature rise may result in higher heatwaves and droughts or more heavy rainfall events as well as flush flooding in temperate regions. Similarly, increased carbon dioxide (CO
2) concentrations will benefit a wide variety of crops by increasing biomass buildup and eventual yield. However, not all crops respond favorably to changes in atmospheric CO
2 levels. Certain cereal and forage crops, for example, exhibit decreased protein contents when exposed to high CO
2 [
6,
7].
Climate change may indirectly impact food production by altering the behavior of some species, such as pollinators, pests, disease vectors, and invading species. Changes in food production settings may result in the emergence of diseases, the introduction of new crop and livestock species, changes in pesticide and veterinary medication usage, as well as changes in the primary transfer routes by which pollutants migrate from the environment to food [
8]. Moreover, the rising temperature and warmer oceans may lead to the deterioration of the quality of marine life [
8,
9,
10,
11]. The effects of climate change on the food system are summarized in
Figure 1.
The population is another major factor impacting food security. Global human population estimates for 2050 range from 7.96 to 10.46 billion, and the estimated average variant is 9.19 billion [
13]. So it will be difficult in the future to feed that much of the population as, in future decades, agricultural and food systems around the world will confront significant problems. As a result of a variety of factors, global food demand continues to rise significantly [
14]. Climate change indirectly affects food prices, thus restricting food access to people. Increased food prices have been shown to reduce the nutritional quality of dietary intake, worsen obesity, and amplify health disparities. Developed nations have sophisticated systems in place that may be utilized to adjust to the food safety repercussions of climate change; however, their efficacies vary by country, and their capacities to respond to nutritional difficulties are less clear [
8]. Climate change’s proportional influence on food security varies by area, although it is most noticeable in developing nations, as well as Africa and the Middle East [
15].
Food security will be a problem in the future for policymakers in the overall Middle East, particularly in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Saudi Arabia occupies an area of roughly 2,149,690 square kilometers and is home to 30.77 million people [
16]. Saudi Arabia occupies the greater share of the Arabian Peninsula and is one of the world’s driest countries, devoid of permanent rivers and lakes. It is located in the Middle East’s tropical and subtropical desert region between the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea; temperatures in some regions can exceed 50 °C (122 °F), resulting in oppressively hot and dry conditions. Due to the severe and high temperatures, the environmental conditions are unfavorable for farming [
17]. Because of its continental climate, cold winters, hot summers, and unpredictable rainfall, the KSA is one of the most sensitive countries to climate change. In desert countries, such as Saudi Arabia, where indigenous production cannot match demand, food is imported from other countries. Food items are mostly imported into desert nations since the native output is insufficient to fulfill domestic demands, and Saudi Arabia is no different. Numerous agricultural projects have been initiated at various points in time to provide food security and rural development; however, several ended with little or no success [
18].
Saudi Arabia’s current and future demands for domestic output expansion without resorting to desert agriculture are constrained by land and water shortages. Water resources are critical components of agricultural productivity in every country. Saudi Arabia is one of the nations that could suffer severe water scarcity by 2050. Saudi Arabia’s existing water resources indicate that it will be unable to fulfill local food demands, forcing it to import food.
Agriculture consumes over 70% of total water withdrawals globally on average, making it by far the greatest water consumer of all sectors. This results in an inherent link between a country’s renewable water resources and its ability to produce food. Saudi Arabia’s overall water requirement for the agricultural sector is not always much greater than those of other countries. The fundamental distinction between food production in KSA and other parts of the world is the extent to which Saudi Arabia is water-scarce in comparison to the other nations. However, Saudi Arabia’s declarations and certain actions that continue to promote local food production to meet the local demand may only seem feasible for the present condition. Growing consciousness of the importance of increasing water yield has also prompted the Saudi government to reduce support for crops, which needs a lot of water, such as wheat and alfalfa (for livestock production) in favor of organic farming (which requires less water and energy due to the absence of fertilizers and pesticides) for human intake [
19,
20].
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia relies mostly on imports as a result of the recent attempt to end crop production. This could have minimal or no effect at this time. In the long run, however, it is likely that any worldwide disruptions in agribusiness caused by climate change or regional instability will exacerbate the problem. It will undermine the nutritional and food security of Saudi Arabia. In order to develop a clear direction for sustainable food security and nutrition, it is vital to examine these factors in the present situation. Moreover, climate change poses a significant threat to the security and long-term stability of Saudi Arabia’s food supply network and has a substantial influence on Saudi Arabia’s already-fragile agricultural system. Therefore, the study aims to examine the effects of climate change on the security and long-term sustainability of the food system in Saudi Arabia, taking into account the current situation while also making recommendations for the future.
The next section describes the challenges of food security in Saudi Arabia, followed by the methodological foundation and the data used in this research.
Section 3 presents the results of the causality analysis, supplemented by the discussion in
Section 4. Finally,
Section 5 highlights the conclusions and proposed policy implications.
1.1. Challenges to Food Security in Saudi Arabia
Having a reliable supply of food on hand at all times is crucial for maintaining social order. It is possible to say that people have food access if they have the resources to obtain the foods that are essential for nutritious diets [
21]. However, regarding the KSA, due to the lack of agricultural natural resources, increased dependency on food imports, incentives, import tariffs, water limitations, high rates of food loss, and growing pressures from climate change, there will likely be intensified issues related to global food security [
15]. Although Saudi Arabia has increased its domestic production of various crops in a short period, Saudi Arabia quickly recognized that wheat growing was water-demanding, putting a strain on the country’s groundwater sources. The groundwater table in the Kingdom frequently dries up as a result of poor rainfall and high demand. There is a lack of community and public knowledge and understanding of the water situation despite severe water constraints. Among the most serious vulnerabilities is the growing shortage of natural resources, particularly water and land, which are threatened by degradation, overconsumption, biodiversity loss, pollution, and extreme climatic extremes. Water resources are becoming scarce and stressed as a result of the rising population and wealth, as well as the effects of climate change. The challenge of feeding the Kingdom’s population, which is expected to exceed 38 million by 2030, in the face of shifting food preferences, increasing non-food demand for agricultural products, declining agricultural growth and production, and uncertainty caused by changing weather patterns has garnered considerable attention recently. To comprehend the Kingdom’s concern about food security, one must first have a thorough understanding of the challenges it faces, which render the Saudi food supply very vulnerable and largely dependent on the global food market.
1.1.1. Adverse Weather Conditions
Saudi Arabia has repeatedly suffered record-breaking temperature extremes over the previous decade, wreaking havoc on the country’s socio-economic condition [
22]. These unfavorable circumstances have a huge impact on the country’s food system. Temperature is directly linked to food production. Saudi Arabia’s climate is characterized by high temperatures during the day and freezing temperatures at night. The country has a desert climate, except for the southwest, which has a semi-arid climate. There is significant temperature and humidity variance due to the influence of a subtropical high-pressure system. Summer temperatures range from 45 °C to 54 °C. The heat rises shortly after daybreak and lasts until dusk, with cool nights in between. Winter temperatures rarely drop below 0 °C, but the lack of humidity and the significant wind chill makes for a very chilly climate. Spring and autumn bring milder temperatures, around 29 °C. Evapotranspiration is increased, soil moisture is reduced, and mechanical weathering occurs as a result of high temperatures and low precipitation. In Saudi Arabia, the maximum annual temperature for the coastal plain region is around 39 °C, 29 °C for the foothills, and 28 °C for the mountain region [
23,
24]. A study was conducted in Saudi Arabia to find out the changes in precipitation and temperature from 1967 to 2016 (50 years) and estimated the major effects of temperature fluctuations on food production. The analysis finds that the average temperature has increased by 1.9 °C over the last five decades, with the highest increase occurring during the summertime [
15]. Additionally, the results indicate that an increase in temperature by one degree Celsius affects agricultural yields by 7–25%. Alam et al. [
25] projected that wheat, barley, date, and vegetable yields could decline by more than 30% as a result of temperature and rainfall changes predicted in SRES scenarios. In Saudi Arabia, December and January are ideal corn-planting months [
26]. Winter wheat, dates, vegetables, and citrus fruits are the most important crops in Saudi Arabia. Irrigation is required for all of these crops, which could be damaged by climate change. The center and northern regions of the country are home to the bulk of the country’s manufacturing operations [
27]. Dates are grown in enormous quantities in Saudi Arabia. Total dates output in 1996 amounted to 620,695 tons, mainly originating from the central and eastern regions of the country [
28]. According to a regional study, a 1% rise in winter temperatures was shown to reduce agricultural output by 1.12% [
28].
1.1.2. Changing Rainfall Pattern
The amount of rainfall in any area affects the amount of water available for agriculture, industry, and other human activities. There is little and irregular rainfall in Saudi Arabia, but it is sporadic at best and extremely heavy during local storms. A combination of Saudi Arabia’s western location in the subtropical zone and its natural topography ensures that the western part of the country experiences long periods of dry weather [
29,
30,
31]. According to research, the annual precipitation is estimated to be around 52.5 mm/year, with a peak of 284 mm in 1996 [
29]. The greatest annual rainfall in the coastal plain region is around 100 mm, 230 mm in the foothills, and 650 mm in the mountains. The foothills receive 230 mm of yearly rainfall, whereas the mountains receive 650 mm. More than a few studies have established that elevation has a significant impact on precipitation intensity and dispersion, especially in mountainous areas [
23,
32]. Due to its moderate elevation and location within the subtropical zone, Jeddah receives a moderate amount of rainfall in comparison to the rest of the country [
33]. Between November and May, KSA receives over 80% of its annual precipitation. The southwest, middle, and eastern regions receive the most rain in the spring whilst the second highest rainfall occurs in winter in the eastern and northeastern parts of KSA. Summer is the driest season in KSA, with the exception of the mountainous southwest region. The horizontal distribution of rainfall in autumn is comparable to that in spring, although the volume of rainfall in autumn is less than that in spring [
34]. The frequency of floods and droughts will increase as erratic rainfall and a lengthened dry season lead to lower quality grain and weaken grain storing and preserving systems [
35]. Rainfall has a good influence on all crops, according to a recent study in Saudi Arabia. Rainfall, on the other hand, was unable to mitigate many of the negative effects of excessive heat [
15]. Therefore, in Saudi Arabia, temperature, rather than rainfall is a more crucial factor in food security.
1.1.3. Limited Water Supply
The KSA is one of the world’s driest places, with very limited water supplies. Long-term climatic changes have a significant and irreversible effect on water supplies, affecting agriculture production as well as public health. Because depletion occurs far more rapidly than renewal, long-term groundwater withdrawal is not feasible [
36]. Therefore, the KSA is supplementing its supply of water with desalination plants’ water and treated sewage rather than relying solely on rainwater. The needs of the KSA’s people are met by a combination of renewable and nonrenewable sources of water. The Kingdom’s deep groundwater reserves are estimated at 1919 bcm (billion cubic meters) and the recharge rate of all deep aquifers is estimated at 2.7 bcm per year [
37]. To counteract desertification, the Kingdom has to use marginal land and seawater for forage and crop cultivation, coastal landscaping, and dune stabilization.
Water shortage is also a constraint on agriculture in the nation. Despite the widespread use of sophisticated irrigation methods, poor water consumption persists and is frequently observed on farms. At the moment, irrigation efficiency is 50% in the country which is a major concern [
38]. Additionally, poor water management resulted in massive water loss. According to Global Water Intelligence [
39], 30% of desalinated water never reaches end-users and is lost to the environment during distribution. Due to a lack of established processes and a lack of quantitative knowledge, it is impossible to produce accurate estimations of the total amount of this “nonrevenue” water [
39]. However, The Arabian Peninsula’s irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly in the last four decades due to government policies promoting food security. Since 1980, the area planted for horticultural crops has increased by 12 to 15% per year, while date palms have increased by 4% [
37,
40]. The areas of salt-sensitive vegetables, melons, and fruit trees have also increased significantly [
40]. Increased irrigation and productivity have resulted in a rise in the area of crops farmed. Up until 1990, the area irrigated expanded by 5% per year, then by 1.2% per year following that [
40].
1.1.4. Insects, Pests, and Diseases
Pests and disease outbreaks, among other biological hazards, constitute a major threat to the health and well-being of humans, animals, and plants. As a result, they frequently occur concurrently with other disasters, threats, and protracted crises, causing cascade effects, heightening risks, and entrenching vulnerabilities. As the climate changes, so will the patterns of insect and disease infestation. The prevalence of many insects and diseases in the ecological systems has gone up significantly in recent times as a result of the changing precipitation and temperature [
41]. Reduced income from meat production, lower crop harvests, decreased forest ecosystems, shifts in aqueous species, and higher control costs all result from insects and illnesses that affect plants and animals, as well as alien invasive aquatic species [
42,
43,
44]. A summary of the loss of yield for major crops is shown in
Table 1.
1.1.5. Increasing Population and Urbanization
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has seen a surge in population and widespread migration to metropolitan regions in quest of better prospects. Saudi Arabia’s population is predicted to increase, mostly as a result of increased life expectancy and a decreasing newborn mortality rate. Saudi Arabia’s population expanded from around 4 million in 1960 to approximately 32.5 million in 2018. With its current population, the KSA is the world’s 41st most populated country. By 2020, the population is estimated to reach 34.4 million, then grow by 77% to more than 56 million by 2050. These expansions have exacerbated the country’s already-scarce water resources’ strain and demand [
48,
49,
50]. Growing urbanization increases food consumption. Urbanization facilitates the establishment of huge supermarkets (retail formats) and increases access to foreign suppliers (imports), hence expanding the available variety of choices in response to the rapid growth in per capita food consumption. As production has been reduced in comparison to prior years, the Kingdom is now more reliant on imported food than ever.
1.2. Climate Change Impact on the Food Supply Chain
Supply chain management has played a vital role in the food retail industry in industrialized countries by efficiently delivering quality products to varied client groups. Saudi Arabia is rapidly catching up with the developed world in terms of super and hypermarket growth [
49]. The stability of the food system could be jeopardized by an increase in the severity and intensity of droughts and floods [
51]. Climate extremes and climate change increase the risk of food insecurity in this region. Unfortunately, however, population expansion, urbanization, and economic shifts will remain the leading causes of food insecurity through 2030. The economic change will influence employment, income, and people’s ability to buy food [
28].
Temperature changes, ozone, and water and fertilizer shortages may offset these potential production gains. For example, if temperatures are too high, or if water and nutrients are insufficient, yield increases may be curtailed or reversed. In alfalfa and soybean plants, high CO
2 has been linked to lower protein, nitrogen, and quality. Reduced grain and forage quality can reduce pasture and rangeland productivity [
51]. It is also found that extreme weather can impede agricultural growth and warmer and wetter conditions, as well as higher CO
2 levels, favor the growth of weeds, pests, and fungi. Due to insect pest infestation, Saudi Arabia faces around 12.6–20% yield losses annually [
45]. Floods and droughts can destroy crops and diminish production. High evening temperatures harmed maize output in the US Corn Belt in 2010 and 2012, and an unusually hot winter claimed USD 220 million in Michigan cherry losses in 2012. Saudi Arabia has the same scenario as well [
49,
51].
5. Conclusions
As the domestic food production of the Kingdom is constrained by the availability of groundwater and wastewater, the food supply is mainly dependent on imports. The food demand will continue to increase because of population growth. Meeting the demand through domestic production will cause tremendous pressure on the remaining non-renewable groundwater. The unavailability of current national estimation of groundwater resources makes the situation difficult for data-driven policymaking. There is also significant wastage of food within the supply chain. The opportunities for demand management and the increase of food supply are already identified in the literature. The government took several initiatives to encourage private investment in international agribusiness to support food import in Saudi Arabia.
Based on the currently available literature it is found that climate change has a substantial impact on Saudi Arabia’s already fragile food supply system and the challenges will be graver in the future. This study adopted a causality analysis to assess the variables, including temperature, GHG emissions, population, and GDP as potential contributors to the nation’s food system’s vulnerabilities. The findings of the long-run causality test indicate that the GDP has a positive causal relationship with the demand for food, indicating that the demand for food will increase with an increase in GDP in the long run. Additionally, the result indicates that Saudi Arabia’s GDP and population growth contribute to the country’s rising GHG emissions. Although the Kingdom has taken some steps, there are still ample opportunities to identify effective food security policies especially considering its unique challenges and opportunities.
This study utilized temperature, population, GDP, and GHG emissions as the key indicators of food security. However, water usage is an additional crucial indicator of food security. In the future, including water usage will allow for more precise modeling. In addition, this study quantified the import based on the number of important crops. Future research can incorporate the other crops to completely comprehend the influence of climate change on the Saudi Arabian food security system.