Sustainable Development in the Export Trade from a Symbiotic Perspective on Carbon Emissions, Exemplified by the Case of Guangdong, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Carbon Emissions Hypothesis in Foreign Trade
2.2. The Relationship between Foreign Trade and Carbon Emissions
2.3. Pathways for Carbon Reduction in Foreign Trade
3. Methods and Data
3.1. Research Samples
3.1.1. Carbon Emission Measurement Methods
3.1.2. Carbon Emission Measurement and Descriptive Analysis
3.2. An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Export Trade and Carbon Emissions
3.2.1. Econometric Model Construction and Description of Variables
3.2.2. OLS Model Estimation and Significance Test
3.2.3. Management Insights
3.3. Symbiotic Systems for Export Trade and Carbon Emissions
- (1)
- When β12 = 0, β21 = 0, the two variables develop independently and the variables have no influence on each other.
- (2)
- When β12 < 0, β21 < 0, these two variables are in competition with each other. One grows while the other declines.
- (3)
- When β12 > 0, β21 < 0, or β12 < 0, β21 > 0, one variable is dependent on the other during the symbiotic evolution of the variables, exhibiting a parasitic pattern.
- (4)
- When β12 > 0, β21 = 0, or β12 = 0, β21 > 0, the ecosystem is currently in a partially beneficial symbiotic mode.
- (5)
- When β12 > 0 and β21 > 0, the variables are in a mutually beneficial symbiosis mode.
3.4. Optimization of the Symbiotic System of Export Trade and Carbon Emissions Based on LV MCGP Model
3.4.1. Energy Consumption Scale and Structure Optimization under the Dual Constraints of Export Trade and Carbon Emissions
3.4.2. Optimization of Export Trade Scale under Carbon Emission Constraints
3.4.3. Optimization of the Carbon Emissions Scale under Export Trade Constraints
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
5.1. Results
5.2. Management Inspiration
5.3. Research Limitations
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Total Imports and Exports (CNY Billion) | Exports (CNY Billion) | Export Growth Rate |
---|---|---|---|
2000 | 14,082.06 | 7609.42 | 18.29% |
2001 | 14,608.01 | 7898.09 | 3.79% |
2002 | 18,299.78 | 9804.77 | 24.14% |
2003 | 23,467.12 | 12,651.23 | 29.03% |
2004 | 29,559.57 | 15,856.17 | 25.33% |
2005 | 35,121.8 | 19,542.06 | 23.25% |
2006 | 42,114.53 | 24,119.13 | 23.42% |
2007 | 48,445.43 | 28,210.96 | 16.97% |
2008 | 47,869.07 | 28,342.66 | 0.47% |
2009 | 41,736.14 | 24,517.4 | −13.50% |
2010 | 53,203.22 | 30,718.98 | 25.29% |
2011 | 59,276.15 | 34,519.93 | 12.37% |
2012 | 62,123.46 | 36,242.5 | 4.99% |
2013 | 67,806.1 | 39,513.95 | 9.03% |
2014 | 66,137.28 | 39,693.38 | 0.45% |
2015 | 63,559.7 | 39,983.1 | 0.73% |
2016 | 63,099.68 | 39,520.54 | −1.16% |
2017 | 68,168.86 | 42,192.86 | 6.76% |
2018 | 71,645.73 | 42,744.06 | 1.31% |
2019 | 71,484.39 | 43,416.04 | 1.57% |
2020 | 70,862.64 | 43,493.07 | 0.18% |
2021 | 82,681.56 | 50,525.46 | 16.17% |
Energy Types | Coal | Oil | Natural Gas | Gasoline | Paraffin | Diesel | Fuel Oil |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon emission factor | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.88 |
Year | Coal Consumption (Million Tons of Standard Coal) | Oil Consumption (Million Tons of Standard Coal) | Natural Gas Consumption (Million Tons of Standard Coal) | Carbon Emissions (Million Tons of Standard Coal) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 4167.37 | 2794.21 | 15.97 | 5459.33 |
2001 | 4289.04 | 2777.66 | 17.00 | 5526.87 |
2002 | 4689.89 | 2801.28 | 18.50 | 5846.06 |
2003 | 5597.22 | 2992.16 | 20.92 | 6695.93 |
2004 | 6174.75 | 3411.73 | 24.03 | 7480.08 |
2005 | 6909.71 | 3415.60 | 39.26 | 8041.40 |
2006 | 7701.62 | 4003.62 | 198.65 | 9219.66 |
2007 | 9018.93 | 4197.27 | 607.04 | 10,608.88 |
2008 | 8981.00 | 4349.07 | 724.84 | 10,777.65 |
2009 | 8944.67 | 5289.86 | 1038.74 | 11,724.25 |
2010 | 9917.85 | 6363.22 | 1250.70 | 13,475.12 |
2011 | 11,705.86 | 6295.98 | 1492.38 | 14,898.46 |
2012 | 11,036.98 | 6446.17 | 1522.34 | 14,542.26 |
2013 | 11,567.95 | 6756.28 | 1620.51 | 15,256.71 |
2014 | 11,203.06 | 6819.25 | 1743.27 | 15,109.92 |
2015 | 10,853.86 | 6992.91 | 1916.97 | 15,097.75 |
2016 | 10,764.44 | 7213.87 | 2197.98 | 15,383.11 |
2017 | 11,321.20 | 7430.45 | 2398.81 | 16,099.75 |
2018 | 11,217.53 | 8473.46 | 2502.84 | 16,956.54 |
2019 | 10,644.06 | 8060.85 | 2707.70 | 16,305.11 |
2020 | 10,272.10 | 8926.56 | 3380.28 | 17,151.83 |
2021 | 12,677.46 | 9707.31 | 4129.23 | 20,047.66 |
Variables | Test Type (C T K) | ADF Test | T | P | Test Results |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LNY | (C, NT, 4) | −1.58 | −3.01 | 0.47 | stationary |
LNEX | (C, T, 4) | −3.90 | −3.66 | 0.03 | stationary ** |
LNS | (C, T, 4) | −1.43 | −3.64 | 0.82 | non-stationary |
LNT | (C, T, 4) | −3.46 | −3.66 | 0.07 | non-stationary |
DLNY | (C, NT, 4) | −2.91 | −3.02 | 0.06 | stationary *** |
DLNEX | (NC, NT, 4) | −2.87 | −1.96 | 0.01 | stationary ** |
DLNS | (NC, NT, 4) | −2.43 | −1.96 | 0.02 | stationary ** |
DLNT | (C, NT, 4) | −4.17 | −3.03 | 0.01 | stationary ** |
Hypothesized No. of CE(s) | Eigenvalue | Trace Statistics | 5% Critical Value | P | Maximum Eigenvalue | 5% Critical Value | P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
none * | 0.97 | 103.17 | 47.86 | 0.00 | 65.73 | 27.58 | 0.00 |
At most 1 * | 0.71 | 37.44 | 29.80 | 0.01 | 23.80 | 21.13 | 0.02 |
At most 2 | 0.41 | 13.63 | 15.49 | 0.09 | 10.12 | 14.26 | 0.20 |
At most 3 | 0.17 | 3.52 | 3.84 | 0.06 | 3.52 | 3.84 | 0.06 |
LNY | LNEX | LNS | LNT |
---|---|---|---|
1.00 | −0.53 | 3.79 | 1.66 |
−0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 |
Time Series | α | γ1 | γ2 | Equilibrium Point | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000–2020 | N1 | 0.093 (0.983) | −2.682 × 10−5 (−3.091) *** | 6.543 × 10−5 (2.598) *** | 60,173 |
N2 | 0.125 (1.507) * | 3.209 × 10−6 (0.142) | −3.329 × 10−6 (−0.440) | 23,238 |
Year | Equilibrium Value | Actual Observations | Year | Equilibrium Value | Actual Observations |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 14,134 | 7609 | 2011 | 38,572 | 34,520 |
2001 | 14,309 | 7898 | 2012 | 37,650 | 36,243 |
2002 | 15,135 | 9805 | 2013 | 39,500 | 39,514 |
2003 | 17,336 | 12,651 | 2014 | 39,120 | 39,693 |
2004 | 19,366 | 15,856 | 2015 | 39,088 | 39,983 |
2005 | 20,819 | 19,542 | 2016 | 39,827 | 39,521 |
2006 | 23,870 | 24,119 | 2017 | 41,682 | 42,193 |
2007 | 27,466 | 28,211 | 2018 | 43,900 | 42,744 |
2008 | 27,903 | 28,343 | 2019 | 42,214 | 43,416 |
2009 | 30,354 | 24,517 | 2020 | 44,406 | 43,493 |
2010 | 34,887 | 30,719 | 2021 | 51,903 | 50,525 |
α | γ1 | γ2 | γ3 | γ4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
0.313 (2.258) ** | −2.543 × 10−5 (−3.234) *** | 7.323 × 10−6 (0.284) | 7.558 × 10−5 (1.613) * | 4.957 × 10−5 (0.599) |
Year | Export (CNY 100 Million) | Carbon Emissions (10 Thousand Tons) | Coal Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | Oil Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | Natural Gas Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual Value | Actual Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | |
2021 | 50,525 | 20,048 | 12,677 | 13,834 | 9707 | 11,514 | 4129 | 0 |
2020 | 43,493 | 17,152 | 10,272 | 12,475 | 8927 | 9280 | 3380 | 0 |
2019 | 43,416 | 16,305 | 10,644 | 11,241 | 8061 | 9373 | 2708 | 0 |
2018 | 42,744 | 16,957 | 11,218 | 12,500 | 8473 | 9025 | 2503 | 0 |
2017 | 42,193 | 16,100 | 11,321 | 11,451 | 7430 | 8941 | 2399 | 0 |
2016 | 39,521 | 15,383 | 10,764 | 11,508 | 7214 | 8037 | 2198 | 0 |
2015 | 39,983 | 15,098 | 10,854 | 10,877 | 6993 | 8252 | 1917 | 0 |
2014 | 39,693 | 15,110 | 11,203 | 11,027 | 6819 | 8141 | 1743 | 0 |
2013 | 39,514 | 15,257 | 11,568 | 11,323 | 6756 | 8052 | 1621 | 0 |
2012 | 36,243 | 14,542 | 11,037 | 11,636 | 6446 | 6922 | 1522 | 0 |
2011 | 34,520 | 14,898 | 11,706 | 12,896 | 6296 | 6220 | 1492 | 0 |
2010 | 30,719 | 13,475 | 9918 | 12,375 | 6363 | 4992 | 1251 | 0 |
2009 | 24,517 | 11,724 | 8945 | 12,377 | 5290 | 2905 | 1039 | 0 |
2008 | 28,343 | 10,778 | 8981 | 9346 | 4349 | 4485 | 725 | 0 |
2007 | 28,211 | 10,609 | 9019 | 9149 | 4197 | 4460 | 607 | 0 |
2006 | 24,119 | 9220 | 7702 | 8801 | 4004 | 3117 | 199 | 0 |
2005 | 19,542 | 8041 | 6910 | 8972 | 3416 | 1561 | 39 | 0 |
2004 | 15,856 | 7480 | 6175 | 9691 | 3412 | 251 | 24 | 0 |
2003 | 12,651 | 6696 | 5597 | 8928 | 2992 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
2002 | 9805 | 5846 | 4690 | 7794 | 2801 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
2001 | 7898 | 5527 | 4289 | 7369 | 2778 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
2000 | 7609 | 5459 | 4167 | 7278 | 2794 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
Year | Carbon Emissions (10,000 Tons) | Export (CNY 100 Million) | Coal Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | Oil Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | Natural Gas Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | |
2021 | 20,048 | 50,525 | 84,938 | 12,677 | 2564 | 9707 | 21,577 | 4129 | 3972 |
2020 | 17,152 | 43,493 | 75,472 | 10,272 | 2059 | 8927 | 18,580 | 3380 | 3760 |
2019 | 16,305 | 43,416 | 72,518 | 10,644 | 2049 | 8061 | 17,580 | 2708 | 3771 |
2018 | 16,957 | 42,744 | 74,852 | 11,218 | 2006 | 8473 | 18,395 | 2503 | 3732 |
2017 | 16,100 | 42,193 | 71,870 | 11,321 | 2000 | 7430 | 17,380 | 2399 | 3750 |
2016 | 15,383 | 39,521 | 69,374 | 10,764 | 1995 | 7214 | 16,531 | 2198 | 3766 |
2015 | 15,098 | 39,983 | 68,382 | 10,854 | 1993 | 6993 | 16,193 | 1917 | 3772 |
2014 | 15,110 | 39,693 | 68,424 | 11,203 | 1993 | 6819 | 16,207 | 1743 | 3772 |
2013 | 15,257 | 39,514 | 68,936 | 11,568 | 1994 | 6756 | 16,382 | 1621 | 3769 |
2012 | 14,542 | 36,243 | 66,447 | 11,037 | 1990 | 6446 | 15,535 | 1522 | 3784 |
2011 | 14,898 | 34,520 | 67,686 | 11,706 | 1992 | 6296 | 15,956 | 1492 | 3777 |
2010 | 13,475 | 30,719 | 62,734 | 9918 | 1983 | 6363 | 14,271 | 1251 | 3808 |
2009 | 11,724 | 24,517 | 53,244 | 8945 | 1276 | 5290 | 12,817 | 1039 | 1259 |
2008 | 10,778 | 28,343 | 49,995 | 8981 | 1251 | 4349 | 11,713 | 725 | 1280 |
2007 | 10,609 | 28,211 | 49,414 | 9019 | 1247 | 4197 | 11,516 | 607 | 1283 |
2006 | 9220 | 24,119 | 44,643 | 7702 | 1210 | 4004 | 9895 | 199 | 1313 |
2005 | 8041 | 19,542 | 40,593 | 6910 | 1180 | 3416 | 8519 | 39 | 1339 |
2004 | 7480 | 15,856 | 38,473 | 6175 | 321 | 3412 | 8617 | 24 | 227 |
2003 | 6696 | 12,651 | 35,713 | 5597 | 316 | 2992 | 7688 | 21 | 228 |
2002 | 5846 | 9805 | 32,721 | 4690 | 310 | 2801 | 6681 | 19 | 229 |
2001 | 5527 | 7898 | 24,145 | 4289 | 3268 | 2778 | 3661 | 17 | 0 |
2000 | 5459 | 7609 | 23,999 | 4167 | 3228 | 2794 | 3616 | 16 | 0 |
Year | Export (CNY 100 Million) | Carbon Emissions (10 Thousand Tons) | Carbon Emissions (10 Thousand Tons) | Coal Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | Oil Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | Natural Gas Consumption (10,000 Tons of SCE) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | Actual Value | Optimization Value | |
2021 | 50,525 | 20,048 | 8463 | 12,677 | 761 | 9707 | 9396 | 4129 | 5158 |
2020 | 43,493 | 17,152 | 6862 | 10,272 | 635 | 8927 | 7602 | 3380 | 4305 |
2019 | 43,416 | 16,305 | 6844 | 10,644 | 633 | 8061 | 7582 | 2708 | 4296 |
2018 | 42,744 | 16,957 | 6691 | 11,218 | 621 | 8473 | 7411 | 2503 | 4213 |
2017 | 42,193 | 16,100 | 6566 | 11,321 | 611 | 7430 | 7271 | 2399 | 4146 |
2016 | 39,521 | 15,383 | 5960 | 10,764 | 563 | 7214 | 6592 | 2198 | 3817 |
2015 | 39,983 | 15,098 | 6065 | 10,854 | 571 | 6993 | 6709 | 1917 | 3874 |
2014 | 39,693 | 15,110 | 5999 | 11,203 | 566 | 6819 | 6636 | 1743 | 3838 |
2013 | 39,514 | 15,257 | 5958 | 11,568 | 563 | 6756 | 6590 | 1621 | 3816 |
2012 | 36,243 | 14,542 | 5218 | 11,037 | 503 | 6446 | 5762 | 1522 | 3410 |
2011 | 34,520 | 14,898 | 4828 | 11,706 | 471 | 6296 | 5327 | 1492 | 3194 |
2010 | 30,719 | 13,475 | 3973 | 9918 | 400 | 6363 | 4372 | 1251 | 2711 |
2009 | 24,517 | 11,724 | 2601 | 8945 | 275 | 5290 | 2850 | 1039 | 1868 |
2008 | 28,343 | 10,778 | 3417 | 8981 | 362 | 4349 | 3744 | 725 | 2455 |
2007 | 28,211 | 10,609 | 3389 | 9019 | 359 | 4197 | 3713 | 607 | 2434 |
2006 | 24,119 | 9220 | 2516 | 7702 | 266 | 4004 | 2757 | 199 | 1807 |
2005 | 19,542 | 8041 | 1540 | 6910 | 163 | 3416 | 1687 | 39 | 1106 |
2004 | 15,856 | 7480 | 1500 | 6175 | 887 | 3412 | 993 | 24 | 0 |
2003 | 12,651 | 6696 | 1400 | 5597 | 828 | 2992 | 927 | 21 | 50 |
2002 | 9805 | 5846 | 1231 | 4690 | 728 | 2801 | 815 | 19 | 0 |
2001 | 7898 | 5527 | 1101 | 4289 | 651 | 2778 | 729 | 17 | 0 |
2000 | 7609 | 5459 | 930 | 4167 | 550 | 2794 | 616 | 16 | 0 |
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Wang, S.; Pan, M.; Wu, X. Sustainable Development in the Export Trade from a Symbiotic Perspective on Carbon Emissions, Exemplified by the Case of Guangdong, China. Sustainability 2023, 15, 9667. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129667
Wang S, Pan M, Wu X. Sustainable Development in the Export Trade from a Symbiotic Perspective on Carbon Emissions, Exemplified by the Case of Guangdong, China. Sustainability. 2023; 15(12):9667. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129667
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Shengyuan, Meixia Pan, and Xiaolan Wu. 2023. "Sustainable Development in the Export Trade from a Symbiotic Perspective on Carbon Emissions, Exemplified by the Case of Guangdong, China" Sustainability 15, no. 12: 9667. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129667