1. Introduction and Literature Review
From the practice at home and abroad in recent years, there are some effective ways to link up the ecosystem to the market economy and realize the value transformation from “green water and green mountains” to “gold and silver mountains”: construct the value-realization mechanism of ecological products, realize the profitability of ecological benefits to the social and economic system, and vitalize ecological resources to promote the high-quality development of the economy, while in other countries the ecosystem services have to be paid for correspondingly. In September 2021, the general offices of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council jointly released a guideline on deepening the reform of the country’s ecological-compensation mechanism, which explicitly proposed the use of market-based mechanisms, promoting effective compensation for the conservationists’ interests through marketized and diversified ways, according to the principle of beneficiary payment, and placing demands on the market-trading mechanism, market-oriented financing channels, and the use of diversified compensation methods, etc. The relevant requests are essential to promote the realization of the value of ecological products. Domestic and foreign scholars have focused their discussion on the mode- and value-realization mechanism of ecological products, which has gradually developed from the policy-based ecological compensation to government guidance, capital involvement and the use of multi-market tools. According to Daily [
1], human society benefits from ecosystem services, including tradable economic goods and other unmarketable services. From the perspective of market-oriented tools, Pirard [
2] divides the value-realization means of ecological products into direct marketization, market-based licensing transactions, reverse-auction transactions, Coase-type agreements, regulatory price signals and voluntary price signals. According to the source of funds, Gao Xiaolong [
3] divided the modes of realizing the value of ecological products into public payment, charitable-organization payment, government payment and multipayment. Based on the practical experience at home and abroad, Zhang Linbo [
4], in terms of exchange subject, carrier and mechanism, divides the value-realization mode of ecological products into compensation of ecological protection, trade of ecological rights, development of ecological industry, income from ecological capital, circulation of resource property rights, regional coordinated development, voluntary quota trade, and ecological carrier premium.
Based on the existing research and analysis of ecological product-value realization, most of the research focus on the experience and lessons learned from the two models of policy-based ecological compensation and tools for marketization [
5,
6,
7,
8,
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14], while little research concerns the measurement of economic profit contribution of ecological benefits in the realizing value mechanism of ecological products. Reflecting the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being [
15], “ecological benefit” is also one of the important factors for measuring this contribution. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), “ecological benefit” has been brought into the evaluation system of social and economic development. In terms of the essence of formation, ecological benefits represent the degree of improvement of human survival and social and economic development caused by the ecological system and its changes, constituting the criterion of the value judgment of human society and decision-making basis, together with economic benefits and social benefits [
16]. According to the investigation of the project, in the operation of the value-realization mechanism of ecological products, the profitability of the ecological benefit derived from the ecological project is one of the important presuppositions for the market investors who are choosing the investment. Therefore, it is of great significance to measure the profitability of ecological benefits. Based on the research of the characteristics of forest-ecological benefits and the value-realization mechanism of ecological products, this paper makes the following innovative contributions: first is the innovative use of the system-dynamics methods to summarize the key features of ecological-benefit systems and economic systems, and to further quantify the ecological benefits in the value-realization mechanism of eco-products; second is the innovative contribution to the application scenarios of ecological-benefit evaluation, focusing on the evaluation of the profitability of ecological benefit. At the present stage, academic circles generally establish, or use the existing, indicators of ecology to evaluate the ecological benefits with various approaches. Because of the regional particularity, complexity and diversity of ecosystems, the adopted researching methods are also various. Based on the cost–benefit theory, Ganshuang et al. [
17] evaluated the ecological benefit of The Hulunbuir Grasslands meadow ecological-function area. Wang Xiyi et al. [
18] used Constanza’s value coefficient to calculate the ecological and social benefits of large-scale water-transfer projects in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Fu Wenbing et al. [
19] calculated the ecological benefits of integrated management of rocky desertification in the Kras region of Suiyang County by setting up indices such as the plant-diversity index. Moore M.R. [
20] measured how the ecological benefits of water quality in 113 lakes in the United States affected the fluctuation of real-estate price with the least-squares method. Felipe S. [
21] calculated the percentage of ecosystem services in the GDP of Portugal, using the meta-analysis. Based on the above research findings, it is necessary to further study the contribution of ecological benefits to the economic system by combining the value-realization mechanism of the ecological products. Third, the paper focuses on the combination of policy-based ecological compensation with market-oriented tools, targeting the value-realization mechanism of the ecological products in the quality-improvement project in Nanping’s national-reserve forests, further quantifying the range of ecological compensation and the market-oriented tools. Based on the project cost and income, the profitability of the ecological benefits of the forest ecosystem in the development model of the policy’s ecological compensation and market-oriented tools under different scenarios is estimated, and the profit contribution of the ecological benefits of the forest ecosystem is emphatically calculated; the purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for the government and market investors to measure the profit-contribution potential of the forest’s ecological benefits in the practice of the forest ecological-product value-realization project. Here is our hypothesis:
Hypothesis 1 (H1): The ecological benefit of the forest ecosystem has the value of economic transformation.
As far as forests are concerned, from forest ecosystems, human beings can obtain cultural services such as spiritual, aesthetic and educational services, regulating services such as climate regulation and water-quality purification, and supporting services such as soil formation, nutrient cycling, and so on. The above ecological benefits, as production factors, are utilized by the projects to realize the value of ecological products, and their monetary value can be expressed through the evaluation method of ecosystem services.
Hypothesis 2 (H2): The forest’s ecological benefit has an economic-contribution potential for the value-realization project of the ecological product, through policy-based ecological compensation and market-oriented tools.
With the development of China’s eco-civilization reform, policy-based ecological compensation and market-oriented tools are used to convert the value of ecological benefits into an economic-profit contribution. For example, in the development of forest tourism, the value-realization project of ecological products, such as forest recreation, forest health care and forest landscape appreciation, can be carried out by using the functions of spiritual aesthetics, medical health care and climate regulation in forest-ecosystem services. Compared with the direct economic benefit from the initial sale of timber and forest products, the ecological benefit makes an effective contribution to the profitability of the project. The paper assumes that the estimated value of ecosystem services can be fully translated into economic benefits by using system-dynamics modelling, and the effective degree of eco-benefit profit contribution is indicated by the time taken for the project profit to cover the project cost.
3. Case-Model Construction and Calculation Results
3.1. Background Analysis of the Case
The case selects the project of the National Reserve Forest Precision Quality Improvement Project in Nanping (
Figure 2), Fujian Province, which is a pilot area of China’s national ecological-civilization reform. First, the project focuses on improving the ecological benefits of the forest through the Precision Quality Improvement Project, and second, the project is operated in cooperation with social capital, which is good for policy-based ecological compensation and market-oriented tools in the promotion of the development of ecological products in achieving the value of the project and the profit contribution of ecological benefits, with a certain amount of representativeness. This project began in 2017, with the first eight years (2017–2024) as the construction period and the next 30 years (2025–2054) as the operating period. By means of cooperation between society and capital, 12 state-owned forest farms and forestry organizations in Nanping co-established the Nanping Reserve Forest Construction and Development Co., Ltd., which obtained the main construction funds for the project by undertaking the reserve-forest policy loans from the China Development Bank. In the capitalization of forest ecological resources, the project transfers the forest rights of the village collective and individual forest land to Reserve Forest Construction and Development Co., Ltd., as collateral for CDB loans by means of ransoming, leasing and cooperation through the state-owned forest, forest assessment agency and the Center for Forest Property Rights Transfer. In the capitalization of the forest ecological assets, the rights of forest assets can be improved specifically by injecting the loan of the construction funds into the Reserve Forest Company and its shareholders through the intensive cultivation of plantation, the transformation of existing forests (selective cutting, replacement, comprehensive remodeling, redemption), developing the under-forest economy, and industrial operation. The repayment of the loan mainly has the advantage of cooperation between government and social capital: this is user payment and viability-gap funding, in which the user payment repays the loan through access to the platform of the ecological market and the sales of timber and forestry carbon sinks produced in the operation of reserve-forest management by means of market-oriented tools, to promote the realization of the value of ecological products. When there is a gap in the payment of the loan by the user, the county-level financial allocation will make up the fund gap. That is, the indirect use of the smooth operation of the capital chain for the auxiliary engineering of policy-based ecological compensation. The project will be handed over to the local government and related departments when the operation has expired. Based on the analysis, the National Development Bank and the management body of the National Reserve Forest project have formed a creditor–debtor relationship, under which the Reserve Forest Company realized the value of forest ecological products through a precise promotion of the quality of the forest. The sale of timber and forestry carbon sinks are the main sources of economic benefits for the project. In addition to the direct availability of economic value through providing services, in the process of reserve-forest management, the forest ecosystem provides climate regulation, health protection, eco-tourism and other services such as support, regulation and cultural services. The forest ecological services in the follow-up management of the project will further transform their value through the carrier of market-based tools, such as developing the green industry. The research team has inspected the Nanping Reserve Forest Company twice, investigating how the project has been carried out, through expert interviews and field research. In the construction of the reserve-forest project, the company made a preliminary infrastructure construction for the proposed green-industry project. The “Xikeng” (West Pit) tourism project is an example. This project has built infrastructure facilities such as mountain corridors and the distinctive healthcare bamboo houses within the forest landscape and the pleasant climate, planning to develop the green industry to gain income by attracting investment. However, with the intervention of market-based tools, due to geographical location and the uncertain evaluation of ecosystem services such as forest health and landscape, it is difficult to move the project forward. In this project, the premise is very important for measuring the profit contribution of the forest ecosystem by exploiting forest ecosystem services through the value-realization mechanism of ecological products. The forest ecological benefits can be realized by developing forest-ecosystem services through the mechanism of realizing the value of ecological products. By measuring the profit-contribution potential of ecological benefits, it is helpful for project investors and operators to grasp the contribution range of indirectly generated benefits of ecological benefits in the intervention of policy-based ecological compensation and market-based instruments. That is to say, in the project of value realization of ecological products, the profits from utilizing the ecological benefits of forest-ecosystem services can effectively shorten the time for covering the project cost, thus enhancing the investment attraction of the project regarding the social capital.
3.2. System-Dynamics Modeling
The theory of system dynamics was proposed by Professor Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1956. The system-dynamics model structure and computational results can be implemented by using Vensim software [
30]. In this paper, Vensim PLE7.3.5 is used to model the forest-precision quality-improvement project in Nanping, and the profit contribution of the eco-benefit will be calculated through the process of modeling a plug-in formula for data simulation. A compound model of the ecological and economic benefits of the Nanping reserve-forest-ecosystem services is constructed, based on the following factors: the forest-ecosystem-services capitalization of the value of resources and assets and the realization of the ecological-product structure of the benefits system, the organization of the Nanping reserve-forest project, and the location of the ecological zone. According to the data of the reserve-forest construction, the features of the ecological location and the cost of construction, 37 constant values were established, cultivating an intensive plantation, transforming the existing forests outside and inside the key ecological areas, and building a cost subsystem of construction outside the key ecological areas. Based on the report of cost and expense for the plan of project implementation, the cost-input subsystem of the reserve forest will be built (
Figure 3 and
Figure 4), and the baseline for measuring the profitability of economic returns and compound ecological benefits will be defined; according to the expected return of the project, the inventory flow of the project’s economic gains will be set up to fit the project’s expected income; the profit boundary of the ecological benefits will be calculated in accordance with policy-based ecological compensation (Viability Gap Funding) and market-oriented tools (income from selling timber and the carbon sink); based on the annual increment of the monetary value of ecosystem services generated by the project, the stock and flow of the project’s ecological benefit will be constructed, to calculate the profit margin of the ecological benefit. The main equation in the compound system of the forest ecological and economic benefit are as follows (
Table 1).
3.3. Analysis of Calculation Results
Vensim PLE 7.3.5 is used to calculate the 30-year operating income of the project (2025–2054). The time step is set to be 1 year. The model should be checked to verify the the integrity of the model and to verify that it passes. Click simulate to calculate the model. By inserting the data for the project construction and expected income coming from CPPPC (China Public Private Partnership Center) [
31], the calculation results are as follows (
Figure 5):
Within the framework of the value-realization mechanism of Nanping’s reserve-forest ecological products, the total investment and total cost of forest-management projects were used as a baseline to further investigate the profitability of forest-ecosystem services. Based on the results calculated by system dynamics, the total investment in the eight-year construction is CNY 21.533 billion, covering the cost of the construction project, interest during the period of construction, underlay liquidity, reserve cost, and other expenses for construction. The total cost of the project is CNY 57.421 billion, adding together the production cost, production-management cost, financial cost, operating cost and the total investment after deducting the underlay liquidity during the 30-year operation period. This paper proposes the calculation of the profit contribution of forest-ecosystem services to the project through three scenarios, by calculating the time of the cost covered by the project income. In terms of the calculation method, in the setting of scenario 1, only the time of the annual economic-benefit increment covering the project investment and cost is considered; in the setting of scenario 2, the economic benefits are superimposed on the annual increment of the government financial subsidy to cover the time of project input and cost; in the setting of scenario 3, on the basis of scenario 2, the annual incremental ecological benefits to be transformed are added together, to cover the time of project investment and cost. On the potential risk, in the calculation of Scenario 1 there is the risk that the sales of wood and the carbon sink cannot fully realize their economic benefits because of the impact of market supply and demand; in the calculation of Scenario 2, the PPP financing structure is adopted for the ecological product-value-realization project. The financial-payment ability of the government was demonstrated in the early stage, and the potential risk of default is small and neglected; in the calculation of Scenario 3, there is a risk that social capital cannot be fully attracted in the process of attracting investment to realize the transformation of ecological benefits into economic benefits through market-oriented tools; in this paper, it is assumed that wood sales, carbon-sequestration economic returns, government financial subsidies, and social-capital investment, can be fully realized.
Scenario 1: considers only the profit contribution of the user-paid part to the whole project of realizing the value of forest ecological products; these are the gains from the economic benefits of the forest ecological system through the market-oriented tools in realizing the value of ecological products, the intermediate and clear-cut timber sold during the quality improvement of the forest by the reserve-forest company, and the carbon sequestration obtained from the intensive plantation cultivation and the conversion of existing forests. Through the analysis of the calculation results, the income from the user payment will break through the total project input line after twelve and a half years, and will cover the total cost of the project after twenty-four and a half years of the project operational period.
Scenario 2: On the basis of scenario 1, the local government’s viability-gap funding was added to investigate the profit contribution of policy-based ecological compensation to the value realization of the ecological products from the whole forest. Under the framework of the loan agreement between the Nanping State Reserve Forest Corporation and the China Development Bank, each repayment gap in the operation of a reserve-forest project will be covered by local finance, in the form of viability-gap funding. The economic income line of the project has been calculated as the boundary of the current policy-based ecological compensation income of the Nanping Reserve Forest project, and the range of action (interval I) of the current policy-based ecological compensation income has been determined. With the policy-based ecological compensation, the economic-income line of the project breaks through the total project-input line after 9 year and 6 months, and the total project cost line in the 22nd year. Compared with scenario 1, the profitability of the project has been improved, and the time of breaking through the total input line and the total cost line has been advanced by 3 years and 2.5 years, respectively. Combined with the actual process of project management, viability-gap funding has a buffer effect on the financing risk of the reserve-forest project, which is the key to the successful establishment of the project framework, providing a basic guarantee for the project to further utilize market-oriented tools to develop the potential ecological benefits in a forest ecosystem.
Scenario3: On the basis of scenario 2, the regulation services, support services and cultural services in the forest ecosystem are added together to assess the monetary value and to examine the profitability of ecological benefits in the forest ecosystem regarding the value realization of ecological products in the whole forest. Ecological services that can be assessed in the precision-quality-improvement project of the Nanping reserve forest are: conserving water, conserving soil, fixing carbon and releasing oxygen, accumulating nutrients, purifying the atmosphere, protecting biodiversity, protecting forests and providing forest recreation, whose monetary values are CNY 13.069 billion, CNY 1.813 billion, CNY 4.19 billion, CNY 250 million, CNY 1.72 billion, CNY 5.127 billion, CNY 5.27685 million and CNY 420 million, respectively. The profit-contribution boundary and the profit-contribution interval (interval II) of ecological benefits can be determined by calculation. It is assumed that during the operational period of the project, the marketable ecosystem services that can be assessed can be fully utilized by marketable tools. After adding the value of the ecological benefit contribution, the line of economic benefit and ecological benefit will break through the total input line in the 6th year and the total cost line of the project in the 16th year of the operational period. Compared with scenario 1, the time of breaking through the total cost line and total input line will be 6.5 years and 8.5 years earlier, respectively, and, compared with scenario 2, it will be 3.5 years and 6 years earlier, respectively. AS shown through the calculation, the potential ecological value of the project can greatly promote the profitability of the project. The marketable forest-ecosystem services can be transformed into ecological benefits to enhance the profitability of the project and its attractiveness to social-capital investment, guided by policy-based ecological compensation with a carrier of the value-realization mechanism of ecological products developed by multiple market-oriented tools.
4. Discussion and Conclusions
4.1. Discussion
Taking the project of the value realization of the ecological products of Nanping’s national reserve forest as an example, this paper focuses on the profit contribution of ecological benefits to economic benefits under policy-based ecological compensation and using market-based tools. Supported by the theory of ecosystem services, this paper provides a useful reference for project operators and investors to understand the importance of ecological benefits for project profits.
(1) In a different way from the existing research, this research focuses on a practical project using the theory of ecosystem services and the theory of “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets” (put forward by President Xi Jinping); a range of policy ecological compensations and a range of market-oriented tools are discussed, both of which are considered very important. At the same time, the ecological benefits which are activated can make a great contribution to shorten the time of cost recovery.
(2) In the practical application, the project operator should be good at quantifying the potential profit contribution of the ecological benefits in the proposed investment to the process of attracting investors to invest in the project, and in guiding the social capital through the means of market-oriented tools to accelerate the transformation of ecological benefits into economic benefits.
(3) This research is still somewhat insufficient, as the calculation of ecological-benefit profit contribution uses static data. With the unceasing tracking of the project, in the follow-up research we will explore the dynamic functional relationship of different marketization tools in the transformation of ecological benefits into economic benefits, and discuss whether the to-be-developed ecologic benefits can be transformed into economic value and the determination of a transformation coefficient.
4.2. Conclusions
By constructing a system of forest-ecosystem-services capitalization and the realization of the resource and assets value of the benefits of ecological products, taking into account the contribution of forest ecological benefits to the profits of the project in the process of calculating and operating Nanping’s reserve forest in order to enhance the precision quality of the project’s ecological products and realize the project value, the conclusions are as follows:
(1) Overall, through the analysis of the profit level of ecological benefit in scenario 3, we can see that the forest ecological benefit has great potential to contribute to the value realization of ecological products. The economic value of ecological benefits should be further transformed by means of policy-based ecological compensation and market-oriented tools.
(2) At the present stage, considering the calculation results of scenario 2 and the actual progress of the project, the policy-based ecological compensation (interval I) also has an effect on the transformation of traditional economic benefits and ecological benefits of forest-ecosystem services. Firstly, this part of the financial subsidy is the foundation of the project financing framework, which provides a policy guarantee for the realization of the user-paid income in scenario 1; secondly, it provides government-policy credit support for market-oriented tools, to further realize the transformation of the forest ecological-benefit value, which has an incentive effect on guiding social investors’ funds into the ecological-market platform.
(3) In the composite system of the ecological benefits and economic benefits of the forest ecosystem in the project of value realization of the ecological products in Nanping reserve forest, the basic value of the ecological-benefit-interval amounts to CNY 26.642 billion. After adding up the profit contribution of the ecological benefits, the benefit covers the total project cost 8.5 years earlier than the user-paid benefits calculated for the sale of timber and carbon sequestration only. With the continuous systematic reform of the ecological-protection compensation, the range of interval I for eco-efficiency development should be reasonably expanded through the policy-based ecological compensation such as financial compensation and guarantee, expanding the market access to attract social investors to participate in the development of ecological products by means of market-oriented tools and other diversified ecological compensations, and fully realize the contribution of ecological benefits to the profits of ecological-product value-realization projects.
(4) Based on the above analysis and the actual development of the project, in the course of operating the project to realize the value of Nanping’s reserve-forest ecological products, apart from ensuring the economic benefits from the sale of timber and from carbon sequestration, etc., social-capital investment can be attracted in the form of cooperation between the government and social capital, and through financial subsidies and policy-based ecological compensation tools. The economic value of ecological benefits can be further transformed through the ecological-product value-realization project, in ways such as developing forest tourism, forest health and the forest industry. During this process, we should pay attention to the demonstration of the government’s financial capacity to pay, reducing the risk of a tight cash flow of project inputs. At the same time, we should also attach importance to the construction of supporting infrastructure for the development of ecological industry, give preference to social-capital investment in the ecological industry, and encourage social capital to develop the ecological industry by making full use of ecosystem services and ecological benefits to realize the profit contribution of ecological benefits for the project.