Economic Valuation of Lake Tana: A Recreational Use Value Estimation through the Travel Cost Method
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Economic Valuation Technique
2.2. Count Data Estimation
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Description of the Study Area
3.2. Methods
3.2.1. Sample Size and Sampling Technique
3.2.2. Model Specification
3.2.3. Model Estimation: Zero-Truncated Poisson Model
3.2.4. Model Variables: Variable Description and Expected Signs
3.2.5. Welfare Estimation
4. Results
4.1. Descriptive Analysis
4.2. Econometric Analysis
4.2.1. Model Comparison and Statistical Tests
4.2.2. Determinants of Recreation Demand/Trip
4.2.3. Consumer Surplus Analysis under Normal Lake Conditions
4.2.4. Consumer Surplus Analysis under Hypothetical Quality Change
5. Discussion
5.1. Determinants of Recreation Demand/Trip
5.2. Consumer Surplus
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Description | Magnitude |
---|---|
Location | 1203′64.34″ N, 3732′04.88″ E |
Altitude | 1786 m |
Length (Maximum) | 84 km |
Width (Maximum) | 64 km |
Depth | 8 m mean and 14 m maximum |
Volume | Approximately 28 km3 at 1786 m |
Surface area | Approximately 3200 km2 |
Catchment area | Approximately 15,321 km2 |
Variable | Description | Measure | Expected Effect |
---|---|---|---|
Travel cost (Tc) | Visitor’s travel cost, measured and treated in a continuous form | Total cost of visitation expenditure in USD | − |
Age (Ag) | Age of visitors, measured and treated in a continuous form | Visitor’s age in number of years | −/+ |
Sex (Sx) | Visitors’ sex as a dummy variable | 0 = female, 1 = male | −/+ |
Distance (Dst) | Visitors’ distance from the site, measured and treated in a continuous form | Distance of visitor’s residence to the lake in kilometers | − |
Income (I) | Visitors’ monthly income, measured and treated in a continuous form | Monthly income in USD | + |
Education (Educ) | Visitors’ education status, measured and treated in a categorical form | 0 = basic, 1 = intermediary, 2 = advanced | + |
Trip experience (Te) | Visitors’ trip experience, measured and treated in a continuous form | Frequency of trips to the site throughout a visitor’s lifetime | + |
Leisure time (Lt) | Leisure time of visitors, measured and treated in a continuous form | Free/leisure time of a visitor in number of days per year | + |
Alternative recreation site (Ars) | Access to alternative recreation site measured through access cost: Tis-Abay waterfall (Ars-Tawf), Gondar fasiledes royal heritage (Ars-Gfrh), Saint lalibela rock church (Ars-Slrc) and Semein mountain national park (Ars-Smnp) | Total expenditure of visitor to these alternative sites in USD | + |
Attribute (Atr) | Distinguishing features or characteristics of the lake: attribute diversity (the monasteries, churches and forests of the islands and Peninsulas, birds, hippos, availability of cultural handcrafts, the moment of Abay River flowing across the lake, etc. = Atr-Diversity) Recreation facility (availability of transport access, hoteling service, beaches, etc. = Atr-Facility) Relative proximity with alternative sites (Tis-Abay, Gondar, Lalibela, Semien mountain = Atr-Proximity) | 0 = Atr-facility, 1 = Atr-diversity, 2 = Atr-proximity | + |
Welfare Measures | Before Change in Lake’s Quality | After Some Improvement in the Lake’s Quality |
---|---|---|
CS per person per trip | ||
CS for average trip | ||
Total Annual CS | ||
Change in a CS ( = ) |
Variables | Category/Dummy | Frequency | Percent | χ2 (p-Value) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sex | Female | 594 | 54.30 | 18.61(0.046) * |
Male | 500 | 45.70 | ||
Education | Basic | 24 | 2.19 | 88.36(0.000) *** |
Intermediary | 193 | 17.64 | ||
Advanced | 877 | 80.16 | ||
Alternate Site choice | Ars-Tawf | 587 | 53.66 | 41.11(0.085) * |
Ars-Gfrh | 318 | 29.07 | ||
Ars-Slrc | 98 | 8.96 | ||
Ars-Smnp | 91 | 8.32 | ||
Attribute choice | Attribute proximity | 314 | 28.70 | |
Attribute diversity | 511 | 46.71 | 22.10(0.335) | |
Attribute facility | 269 | 24.59 |
Variables | Mean | Std. Deviation | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|
Age | 31.95 | 9.70 | 17.00 | 75.00 |
Distance (km) | 360.17 | 294.63 | 3.00 | 1200.00 |
Monthly income (USD) | 403.77 | 391.92 | 10.00 | 2300.00 |
Leisure Time | 41.29 | 20.27 | 5.00 | 195.00 |
Trip Experience | 40.66 | 17.58 | 2.00 | 180.00 |
Recreation trip | 2.03 | 16.98 | 1.00 | 12.00 |
Time at the site (days) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Total cost | 153.04 | 90.31 | 15.00 | 620.87 |
Model | Obs | 11 (Null) | 11 (Model) | df | AIC | BIC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poisson Regression Model (Poisson) | 1094 | −1882.769 | −1513.761 | 15 | 3057.521 | 3132.485 |
Generalized Poisson Regression Model (GP) | 1094 | −1869.835 | −1362.562 | 16 | 2757.125 | 2837.086 |
Zero-Truncated Poisson Regression Model (ZTP) | 1094 | −1728.005 | −1115.103 | 15 | 2260.205 | 2335.169 |
Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial Regression Model (ZTNB) | 1094 | −1514.973 | −1115.103 | 16 | 2262.205 | 2342.167 |
Generalized Negative Binomial Regression Model (GNB) | 1094 | −1870.868 | −1513.76 | 16 | 3059.519 | 3139.481 |
Zero-truncated Poisson inverse Gaussian (ZTPIG) | 1094 | - | −1519.931 | 15 | 3069.862 | 3144.826 |
Trip Frequency | At Status Quo Level | With Quality Improvements | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient | Robust Std. Err | Coefficient | Robust Std. Err | |
Sex (Female = 0) | ||||
Male (1) | −0.16195 ** | 0.05902 | −0.12803 ** | 0.04343 |
Ag | 0.02379 *** | 0.00312 | 0.01371 *** | 0.00234 |
Educ (Basic = 0) | ||||
Intermediary | −0.07960 | 0.07804 | 0.04284 | 0.05515 |
Advanced | 0.15652 * | 0.08907 | 0.15780 ** | 0.06929 |
Dst | −0.00077 *** | 0.0002 | −0.00246 *** | 0.00021 |
Te | −0.00247 ** | 0.00128 | −0.00311 ** | 0.00107 |
Lt | −0.00008 | 0.00028 | 0.00018 | 0.00029 |
I | 0.00059 *** | 0.00006 | 0.00024 *** | 0.00005 |
Ars-Smnp (0) | ||||
Ars-Tawf (1) | 0.25588 *** | 0.05707 | 0.16157 *** | 0.04181 |
Ars-Gfrh (2) | 0.27313 ** | 0.13060 | 0.24154 * | 0.12790 |
Ars-Slrc (3) | −0.05720 | 0.09908 | −0.04962 | 0.07706 |
Atr (Atr-Facility = 0) | ||||
Atr-Diversity | 0.12718 * | 0.06940 | 0.02814 | 0.05377 |
Atr-Proximity | 0.09487 | 0.0696 | 0.06060 | 0.05088 |
Tc | −0.00662 *** | 0.00107 | −0.00301 *** | 0.00061 |
Constant | 0.13126 | 0.17029 | 0.90483 *** | 0.12804 |
Number of obs (n) | 1094 | 1094 | ||
Pseudo R2 | 0.3547 | 0.3216 | ||
Log-likelihood | −1115.1025 | −1220.1365 | ||
Wald chi2(14) | 1192.58 | 1138.22 | ||
Prob > chi2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
Values | |||
---|---|---|---|
CS per trip per person | 151.00 | 333.33 | 182.33 |
CS for average number of trips | 306.52 | 676.67 | 370.15 |
CS for annual visitors | 68,468,534.00 | 151,143,155.20 | 82,674,621.20 |
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© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Wubalem, A.; Woldeamanuel, T.; Nigussie, Z. Economic Valuation of Lake Tana: A Recreational Use Value Estimation through the Travel Cost Method. Sustainability 2023, 15, 6468. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086468
Wubalem A, Woldeamanuel T, Nigussie Z. Economic Valuation of Lake Tana: A Recreational Use Value Estimation through the Travel Cost Method. Sustainability. 2023; 15(8):6468. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086468
Chicago/Turabian StyleWubalem, Atalel, Teshale Woldeamanuel, and Zerihun Nigussie. 2023. "Economic Valuation of Lake Tana: A Recreational Use Value Estimation through the Travel Cost Method" Sustainability 15, no. 8: 6468. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086468