Strategic Minerals for Climate Change and the Energy Transition: The Mining Contribution of Colombia

Abstract

To transition to carbon neutrality by the year 2050, copper, lithium, rare earths, cobalt, nickel, and silver are essential due to their use in the manufacture of electric cars, lithium batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, motors, and electrical wiring. The main goal of this study is to carry out a mining approach of the prospective areas of Colombia with strategic minerals for energy transition and climate change, analyzing the geospatial location, mining rights, mineral extraction, and royalty collection. Open data from SGC, ANM, and SIMCO geoportals were consulted. The prospective areas totaled 311,535.2 km², equivalent to 27.3% of Colombia, and were located mainly in the Andes Mountains. The total area of mining rights and applications with strategic minerals for the energy transition is 112,802.2 km² or 9.9% of Colombia, representing 5731 rights and 3939 applications. From 2012 to 2023, 448,330 tons of nickel, 172.9 tons of silver, and 171.6 tons of copper were mined in Colombia, which has contributed USD 513,140,286 as royalties to the state. No royalties have been earned from the extraction of rare earths, lithium, or cobalt. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement is possible with new sustainable mining projects of strategic minerals.

1. Introduction

Some minerals have been accepted globally as strategic or critical since they are difficult to obtain and have few or no possibilities of substitution, making them essential for the future economies of countries due to their relationship with the development of renewable energy, digital, aerospace, and defense technologies, a high consumption value of recent years, the dependence on imports, its projected demand growth relative to current supply, and the difficulties of scaling up production [1,2,3]. A mineral can also be considered critical when it fulfills an important function for the country and its supply chain is subject to the risk of interruption [4].

In 2018, a systematic review was carried out with 32 studies of strategic mineral trends. It should be noted that of the 56 elements evaluated, the 3 most identified as critical are the rare earth elements, the platinum group metals, and the indium [4]. Another systematic review carried out in 2020 with 88 studies made it possible to study the long-term global demand for 48 critical metals, and it was found that by the year 2050, the demand for dysprosium would have the widest range of critical metals, followed by selenium and tellurium [5]. A study that assessed the global demand for 25 potentially scarce materials indicated that materials such as lithium, dysprosium, tellurium, cobalt, iridium, vanadium, scandium, neodymium, and nickel would be key to a highly ambitious transformation of the global energy and transportation system in the future [6]. In particular, copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements (REEs), and nickel are projected to increase their demand due to their use in advanced technologies related to energy transitions and low-carbon power generation globally such as electromobility [7,8].

In this sense, there is a need to pay attention to mineral markets to achieve sustainable energy growth. Driven by increased demand and high prices for key energy transition minerals such as copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and silver, the market size has doubled over the past five years, reaching USD 320 billion in 2022 [9]. The scenarios for 2050 consider a significant increase in the demand for critical minerals, which forces the need for exploration and the development of new mine projects. It generates a challenge for the mining industry in terms of sustainable processes of exploration, extraction, mineral processing, and metallurgy [10].

The Ministry of Mines and Energy of Colombia through Resolution 180102 of 30 January 2012 cataloged 11 minerals of strategic interest to Colombia: gold, platinum, copper, phosphate minerals, potassium minerals, magnesium minerals, metallurgical and thermal coal, uranium, iron, and coltan [11]. In 2019, the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) addressed an analysis of “the minerals of the future” of Colombia for the diversification of the national production matrix with an environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable vision based on the growth of demand and the size of the market, in which they preselect 10 minerals of the future: copper, aluminum, gold, zinc, nickel, phosphoric rock, silver, potassium, platinum, and silica sand [11].

In March 2023, the National Mining Agency (ANM) together with the Colombian Geological Survey (SGC) declared the guidelines for the establishment of strategic minerals in Colombia, in whose list of 28 critical minerals for Colombia are copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, as minerals for the energy transition, but silver is not included [12].

In the last four National Development Plans (NDPs) of Colombia, established in 2010 and with a projection until 2026, strategic minerals for the energy transition have not been deepened, and it is only in the last NDP 2022–2026 that copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earth minerals are explicitly referenced as strategic for this purpose.

In the NDP 2010–2014 “Prosperity for All” by President Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, nickel is explicitly mentioned in foreign direct investment in the mining sector, which increased by 74% from USD 1783 to 3094 million from 2006 to 2009. In this way, the mining sector ranked second in the country’s exports, which amounted to USD 13,786 million in 2009, with coal, ferronickel, and gold being the main products [13].

The NDP 2014–2018 “All for a New Country” by the re-elected president Juan Manuel Santos mentioned that between 2000 and 2012, the production of the mining sector grew significantly: in coal, it went from 38.2 to 89.0 million tons per year (133% of growth), in ferronickel, from 27,736 to 47,407 tons per year (71%), and in gold, from 37.0 to 66.2 tons per year (79%) [14]. In Law 1753 of 2015, by which the NDP 2014–2018 is issued, one of these minerals is also mentioned only once, where it is ordered in Article 152 on “Custody of gold by the Bank of the Republic” that when real precautionary measures are applied on gold, silver, platinum, or currency, both in administrative and judicial processes, the competent authority will order that they be made available to the Society of Special Assets (SAE) or the Special Administration Fund of Assets of the Office of the Attorney General of the Nation, as appropriate, for its management under the terms of the law [15].

In the NDP 2018–2022 “Pact for Colombia, Pact for Equity” by President Ivan Duque Marquez, there is no mention of the words of strategic minerals, copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, or rare earths; however, an explicit mention of silver was found in Law 1955 of 2019, in which the NDP 2018–2022 is established, where in Article 330 of “Amounts of royalties from Private Property Recognitions (RPP)” gold and silver veins are set at a percentage of 0.4% and 2.0% for gold and silver alluvial [16].

In the NDP 2022–2026 “Colombia: World Power of Life” by President Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego, it expresses an explicit interest in updating the mining policy with a focus on several pillars, one of them being the “use of technologies in the supervision, promotion, and prioritization of the exploration, extraction, and formal commercialization of strategic minerals such as gold, construction materials, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earths, among others” [17]. Additionally, in Law 2294 of 2023, by which the NDP 2022–2026 is issued, Article 229 on “Formulation of the geoscientific knowledge plan and strategic mining reserve areas for the development of associative projects” mentions the interest in the investigation and prospecting of mineral resources for energy transition, industrialization, food sovereignty, and public infrastructure. On the other hand, in Article 231 on “Special mining districts for productive diversification”, the creation of these special mining districts is mentioned to achieve the sustainability of the regions and promote the associativity between miners and small-scale mining companies, as well as industrialization from strategic minerals [18].

Today the energy sector is dominated globally by fossil fuels, which account for 73% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [19]. The GHG emission ranges of some energy sources have been measured, and, ultimately, the technology that generates the least amount of CO₂ equivalent to producing electricity is wind power (~20 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy), followed by solar (~50 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy), hydropower (~70 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy), natural gas with capture and storage of carbon (~150 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy), anthracite with carbon capture and storage (~300 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy), natural gas without carbon capture and storage (~450 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy), and anthracite without carbon capture and storage (~950 g of CO₂ equivalent per kWh of energy). In this way, it is confirmed that coal and natural gas as sources of electricity are the ones that release the greatest number of polluting gases into the environment among the energy sources measured [20].

The term “energy transition” means the shift from energy systems based on fossil sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas to systems based on renewable energy such as wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, oceanic, biofuels, hydrogen, and others.

There is also the term “just energy transition”. The concept of “just transition” originally originated in the 1970s within labor movements in the United States, but has since been used in discussions of green new deals and the circular economy [21]. The overall goal of a just energy transition is to find ways to reconcile environmental sustainability with global social and economic development, with a particular focus on countries that have historically low socio-economic indicators and struggles for access, security, and affordability of energy. Six principles of a just energy future in the United States have been identified: (1) be grounded in place, (2) address the root causes and legacies of inequality, (3) change the balance of power in existing forms of governance energy, (4) create new, cooperative, and participatory systems of energy ownership and governance, (5) adopt a rights-based approach, and (6) reject false solutions [22]. In Colombia, the current government seeks to implement a just energy transition, which revolves around five fundamental axes: (1) greater investments in clean energy and decarbonization; (2) the progressive substitution of the demand for fossil fuels; (3) greater energy efficiency; (4) the review and eventual relaxation of regulations to accelerate the generation of clean energy; and (5) the reindustrialization of the Colombian economy [23].

The approach carried out by this research is aimed at mining the strategic or critical minerals that are necessary to meet the global commitments on climate change and energy transition. In this framework, the main goal of this research is to study the modifying factors of mining on a regional scale in the prospective areas of Colombia identified by the SGC and the ANM for strategic minerals of copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and silver, through a quantitative and geospatial analysis of strategic mineral deposits, mining rights, mineral extraction, mining methods, mineral processing, and metallurgy, to advance strategic mineral supply and trading chains that will build the infrastructure, materials, and finished products of the energy transition that society and the environment need, for example, electric cables, batteries, magnets, wind turbines, solar panels, motors, and microchips.

2. Framework

2.1. Energy Transition and Climate Change

The relation between energy transition and climate change is relevant because climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to life and the planet. Projections of impacts of climate change predict hostile conditions for human life due to high temperatures, extreme climate events, water scarcity, and desertification [24]. In recognition of this, 195 countries (including Colombia) adopted the Paris Agreement in December 2015 at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21), whose central objective included continuing efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C [25]. Figure 1 depicts the historical behavior of human-induced global warming, which reached approximately 1 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2017, and, at current rates, global temperatures will reach 1.5 °C around 2040. The trend is planned for the long term with immediate actions to reduce CO₂ emissions to zero by 2055 [25].

Added to COP21, in 2015, and to eradicate problems such as climate change, environmental pollution, and degradation of natural resources, among others, the United Nations (UN) launched the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development where it established 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The 17 SDGs consist of a total of 169 targets that span the economic, social, and environmental fields and aim to improve society [26]. In the context of the 2030 Agenda, the sustainable energy transition is found in SDG 7 called “Affordable and clean energy”, which seeks to guarantee by 2030 access to affordable, safe, sustainable, and modern energy for all [27]. This goal states that energy is central to all the challenges and opportunities facing the world today. All activity in today’s modern society requires energy to operate. However, the use of fossil fuels has hurt the environment, which is why it is necessary to transform our energy system to make it renewable and sustainable. Sustainable energy is an opportunity that transforms lives, economies, and the planet [28].

Many of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries are failing to meet their obligation to implement the SDG 7 targets. This failure is a major constraint on global progress in reducing GHG emissions and reducing mitigation of climate change, as it provides the reason for developing countries to evade their commitments [29].

In Colombia, through document CONPES 3918, the government defined 16 goals that will trace the path to fulfill the 2030 Agenda and that will allow 100% of Colombians to have access to electricity. Colombia’s goals for SDG 7 are (a) universal access to modern energy, (b) increase the global percentage of renewable energy, (c) double the improvement in energy efficiency, (d) invest in and facilitate access to research and technology in clean energy, and (e) expand and improve energy services for developing countries [30].

2.2. Energy Transition: Current State

The energy transition has disparate degrees of development between countries showing an incipient implementation on a global scale [31]. Global investment in energy transition reached a record USD 755 billion in 2021, up 27% from the previous year, with the top ten countries being China, the US, Germany, the UK, France, Japan, India, South Korea, Brazil, and Spain. It was estimated that by 2022, global investment in clean energy would be close to USD 1500 billion. Huge capital investments are required for the sustainable energy transition towards the SDGs and to mitigate the impacts of climate change [27].

Countries are just moving towards clean energy as an alternative to fossil fuels to reduce the heat of greenhouse gases and overcome the impacts of climate change that are becoming more intense and affecting our entire planet. In an investigation, the hot topics of climate change were identified and grouped into categories, and the public paid more attention to the topics of green development and energy transition [32]. Energy transitions are among the most important research areas because of the necessity to reduce gas emissions [33], as renewable energy has been adopted as one of the main strategies for both the mitigation and adaptation to climate change [34]. A bibliometric analysis indicates that climate change and energy policy have always been the dominant keywords around the global energy transition in the last five years (2017–2022). This suggests that most authors associate the energy transition with terminologies related to beneficial sustainable energy policies to control carbon emissions, which ultimately leads to curbing the harmful effects of climate change [19].

2.3. Energy Transition: The Role of the Strategic Minerals

Clean energy transition technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles rely on various mineral resources that are the pillar of such technologies; therefore, the demand for specific types of minerals is expected to increase shortly to meet the needs of this infrastructure [26,35,36]. The great technological and economic importance of these strategic minerals combined with concerns about their future availability depending on geopolitical and geological factors has led to increasing attention to building the required energy infrastructure and achieving the energy transition and GHG emission reduction goals of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, which implies a significant increase in the demand for minerals, making it necessary to mobilize substantial amounts of resource minerals [37,38,39]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also claims that an energy system fueled by low-carbon energy technologies needs more minerals, especially copper. The recent price increases for cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel highlight how supply could struggle to satisfy the world demand for these critical minerals [37]. Figure 2 shows the number of kilograms of minerals used in clean energy technologies necessary to produce an electric car and a conventional one and that necessary for the generation of 1 MW of energy from various sources. It is evident that copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths are critical elements in achieving the purpose of generating clean energy [40].

In electric cars, a key characteristic that defines the type of battery is the chemistry of its cathodes, which determines both the performance of the battery and its demand for mineral content. For the automotive sector, there are three main categories of cathode: lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), and lithium iron phosphate (LFP). NMC and NCA cathodes are preferred as they offer high energy density due to higher nickel content in the cathode. However, a higher nickel content requires more complex and controlled production processes. LFP is a lower cost, more stable chemical with lower fire hazards and a longer life cycle. For its part, NCA is used exclusively by Tesla [41]. Figure 3 shows the mineral composition of the different cathodes of lithium batteries for electric cars [41].

For its part, silver becomes relevant in solar panels due to its high conductivity, even above copper. In crystalline silicon-type panels, they represent the second component with the highest economic value despite the low amount used [20]. Figure 4 shows the material composition of crystalline silicon (c-Si) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar photovoltaic (PV) modules by weight and average economic value [20]. Crystalline silicon technologies account for approximately 90% of annual solar PV installations worldwide; however, the global production of CdTe PV modules has increased in the last decade as a result of their low cost and ease of fabrication [42]. Silicon, silver, and copper minerals are critical for c-Si solar panels [43].

Building new mines to extract the raw materials required by the energy transition takes more time than the stages of mineral processing and the construction and assembly of finished products; that is, the stages of geological exploration, mining development, and mineral extraction present the longest times in the supply chains of energy transition. Taking from the discovery of a mineral deposit to the production stage, it turned out that between 2010 and 2019, the mining industry worldwide took an average of 16 years to obtain the raw material for the production of lithium batteries, solar panels, cathodes, anodes, among others [44].

Figure 5 shows that exploration and technical feasibility studies for lithium, nickel, copper, and silver projects often require 12 years; the construction and assembly of mineral processing plants takes 4 to 5 years; and the manufacturing and assembly processes of products such as electric cars, batteries, and solar panels take 1 to 4 years [44].

3. Materials and Methods

The bibliographic search for this research was carried out in the Scopus, Science Direct, Springer, and Ebsco databases, Colombian institutional repositories, and official websites of the Colombian government. The latter were especially consulted to reference the strategic mineral guidelines, laws, policies of the Colombian government, and the bases and articles of the last four National Development Plans. The bibliographic review was carried out on critical or strategic minerals and their relationship with climate change or energy transition with the specific search “(critical OR strategic) AND mineral AND (climate AND change) OR (energy AND transition)”.

This study mainly analyzed in a quantitative and geospatial way the location in Colombia of the prospective areas of copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths, cobalt, and silver, the state of mining rights, the historical extraction by departments and strategic minerals, and the historical collection of royalties. To this end, the prospective areas of Colombia with energy transition mineral resources were digitized using QGIS 3.8.1—Zanzibar software, a free and open source Geographic Information System (GIS), based on the polygons delimited as prospective by the SGC in 2022 for copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, and published by the ANM in March 2023 in the technical document “Guidelines for the establishment of strategic minerals in Colombia” [12]. The maps presented of Colombia’s critical mineral prospective areas and mining rights status were constructed under MAGNA-SIRGAS Coordinated Reference System (EPSG: 4686).

Likewise, the data from the metallogenic map of Colombia from the latest edition of 2020, prepared by the Directorate of Mineral Resources of the Colombian Geological Survey (SGC), were used, where deposits, prospects, and mineral occurrences were located and described. The metallogenic map supported investigations of the country’s economic geology, serving as a useful tool for decision making within the framework of territorial planning, geological and mining teaching and research, and the study of the nation’s mineral potential [12].

The guidelines for the establishment of strategic minerals in Colombia were structured from a technical, economic, social, environmental, and legal perspective by the mining authority (ANM), based on the definitions of critical minerals of seven countries or economic blocks: USA, Canada, Brazil, European Union, India, Japan, and Australia, who defined their critical minerals in terms of security and reliability of supply chains, concentration in global production and refining supply, and their essential nature for the transition to low-carbon economies [12].

The two most prospective areas for rare earth elements in the Antioquia department delimited by Bedoya in 2022 were added from the international exploration cut-off of 800 ppm total rare earth oxides (TREOs), which is equivalent to 2150 km² and located in the northeast and Bajo Cauca subregions, indicating prospectivity for the development of the REE mining value chain in Antioquia [45]. The two zones of rare earth elements were found in the scoping study with geostatistical simulations to assess exploration targets for TREOs (ppm) obtained via regional sampling of active stream sediments [45].

Since the SGC has not published prospective silver ore polygons, these areas were delimited in this study from the 80th percentile of silver concentration (mg/kg) in active stream sediments in the Cartography Geochemical Atlas of Colombia version 2020 by the SGC [46]. The information on geology, metallogenic belts, metallogenic domains, metallogenic provinces and subprovinces, mineral deposits, and metallogenic districts, among others was consulted from geoservices available on the SGC geoportal [47].

Subsequently, the prospective areas of mineral resources for the energy transition were superimposed with the mining rights available on the ANM’s Anna Minería geoportal to inventory the mining rights and applications for mining concession contracts in force as of the date of 28 June 2023.

Finally, the information on the historical extraction and collection of royalties of the energy transition minerals that Colombia currently produces, which are copper [48], nickel [49], and silver [50], was compiled to analyze the behavior of the national market for these strategic minerals. The source of information was the Colombian Mining Information System (SIMCO) by UPME. There was no official report in SIMCO of figures related to the extraction and contribution of royalties from lithium, rare earths, and cobalt minerals, even though some mining projects in the country produce them as by-products. The portal also did not consider the figures for the extraction of copper from El Roble mine, in the municipality of El Carmen de Atrato in the Choco department.

The conversion of the Colombian currency (COP) to US dollars (USD) was carried out using the Representative Market Rate of exchange (TRM), which expressed the amount of the Colombian currency equivalent to 1 US dollar (COP/USD). The historical value of the TRM per day was consulted in the data source of the Bank of the Republic of Colombia [51], with a time range of the TRM from January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2023, the period in which the contribution of economic profits to the state through royalties from critical minerals was analyzed. The daily values were averaged per year to convert royalties from COP to USD.

4. Results

4.1. Prospective Areas with Strategic Minerals for Energy Transition

The geographic locations of the prospective areas of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silver, and rare earths are concentrated along the Andes Mountains, classified as an Andean metallogenic domain; however, prospective areas for rare earths, silver, and lithium in the Amazonian metallogenic domain stand out. Figure 6 shows the map of Colombia with the geographical location of the areas with strategic minerals for energy transition and climate change. There is a great opportunity for Colombia to explore the subsoil of the Amazonian metallogenic domain and define new prospective zones for strategic minerals.

Of the strategic minerals for the energy transition evaluated, cobalt is the one with the largest prospective area in Colombia, followed by copper, nickel, rare earths, lithium, and silver.

Table 1. Prospective areas (km²) of Colombia with strategic minerals for energy transition and climate change.

Mineral	Area (km2)	Area of Colombia (%)
Cobalt	133,309.58	11.7%
Copper	107,324.82	9.4%
Nickel	99,741.55	8.7%
Rare earths	96,926.35	8.5%
Lithium	41,178.00	3.6%
Silver	18,668.87	1.6%
Overlap	311,535.20	27.3%

shows the amount of prospective area of each strategic mineral in descending order and its percentage concerning the continental territory of the country. The overlap of these prospective areas adds up to 311,535.2 km², equivalent to 27.3% of the continental area of Colombia.

4.2. Mining Rights

Table 2. Mining rights and mining applications are in force in Colombia for strategic minerals for energy transition and climate change.

Mineral	Mining Rights		Mining Applications		Total (Rights + Applications)
	Amount	Area (km2)	Amount	Area (km2)	Amount	Area (km2)	Area of Colombia (%)
Silver	1414	15,323.80	1718	25,804.10	3132	41,127.90	3.6%
Copper	1105	11,005.40	1501	25,631.50	2606	36,637.00	3.2%
Nickel	827	7913.34	302	4102.61	1129	12,015.90	1.1%
Cobalt	795	6402.88	166	2259.41	961	8662.29	0.8%
Lithium	795	6402.01	119	823.84	914	7225.85	0.6%
Rare earths	795	6402.01	133	731.22	928	7133.23	0.6%
Overlap	5731	53,449.44	3939	59,352.69	9670	112,802.17	9.9%

shows the number of rights and applications for each strategic mineral and the proportion of area they occupy in the territory. Silver leads as the energy transition mineral with the largest number of mining rights and applications in the country, followed by copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths. The total area of mining rights and applications that registered cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silver, or rare earths as a mineral of interest occupies 112,802.2 km², which is equivalent to 9.9% of the country’s surface and represents 5731 valid mining rights and 3939 applications.

Figure 7 shows the map of the prospective areas of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silver, and rare earths, superimposed on Colombia’s mining rights for strategic minerals for energy transition and climate change. The mining rights and applications are concentrated within the prospective areas, demonstrating coherence between what is proposed by the SGC and the ANM with the reality that the country experiences in matters of mining rights.

4.3. Mineral Extraction and Royalty Collection

Figure 8 presents the mineral extraction of nickel by Colombian departments between 2012 and 2022. Only the Cordoba department produces this strategic mineral in Colombia. In addition, the amount of mineral extracted annually has decreased in recent years. By 2022, 47.2 million pounds of nickel will be mined in the country.

Figure 9 shows the historical silver extraction by Colombian departments between 2012 and 2022. Antioquia is the leading department in the historical silver extraction in Colombia. By the year 2022, Antioquia will be followed by the Bolivar, Caldas, Cauca, and Choco departments.

Figure 10 presents the mineral extraction of copper by Colombian departments from January 2013 to March 2023. According to the information, as of 2022, the Antioquia department is the largest copper producer in Colombia, with 99.9 tons of copper in the year 2022 and 62.1 tons accumulated as of March 2023, and it is obtained as a by-product in the gold metallurgical process of the Buritica mine of Zijin—Continental Gold company.

It is known that the Choco department is the largest copper producer in Colombia, with El Roble copper mine of the Miner S.A. company, which in 2020, extracted about 9371 tons of copper [52].

According to the previous evidence by mineral and departments, it is concluded that Cordoba, Antioquia, and Choco are the Colombian departments that have contributed the greatest amount of strategic minerals to supply the energy transition.

On the other hand, Figure 11 presents a compilation of the annual tons of nickel, copper, and silver extracted in Colombia from 2012 to 2023, indicating that the energy transition mineral product with the highest mining extraction in the country is nickel, followed by silver and copper. During this period, approximately 448,330 tons of nickel, 172.9 tons of silver, and 171.6 tons of copper were mined (not counting the copper production from El Roble mine). Colombia does not have historical reports of royalty collections for the mining extraction of lithium, cobalt, or rare earths.

The annual collection of royalties for the extraction of nickel, silver, and copper minerals is shown in

Table 3. Collection of royalties (2012–2023) in Colombia for the extraction of strategic minerals for the energy transition and climate change.

Year	TRM (COP/USD)	Royalties (USD)
		Nickel	Silver	Copper	Total
2012	1797.8	70,128,269	477,125	0	70,605,394
2013	1869.1	52,387,690	235,526	402	52,623,618
2014	2000.3	51,079,121	206,680	498	51,286,299
2015	2743.4	29,550,316	112,450	598	29,663,363
2016	3051.0	21,582,511	127,937	106	21,710,555
2017	2951.3	31,526,986	373,959	64	31,901,009
2018	2956.4	49,615,604	225,085	434	49,841,122
2019	3281.1	45,486,163	190,073	416	45,676,651
2020	3693.4	44,754,381	317,336	25	45,071,742
2021	3743.1	64,795,893	508,090	13	65,303,996
2022	4255.4	49,149,261	253,690	34,941	49,437,893
2023	4595.1	0	0	18,643	18,643
Total		510,056,195	3,027,951	56,140	513,140,286

, from the year 2012 to 2023. During this period USD 513,140,286 was collected for royalties of the nickel, silver, and copper extracted in Colombia.

5. Discussion

5.1. Leveraging Mining Activity for Sustainable and Technological Development

From the geological point of view, mineral deposits of copper, nickel, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, or silver are scarce and limited, since their occurrence is due to very particular tectonic and lithological conditions. For the supply chains of energy transition and climate change, these minerals are critical and indispensable, since every day the demand for clean energy and electromobility increases to meet the carbon neutrality commitments by 2050. They are not found in the nature chemical elements with better or similar properties that can be viable substitutes in the manufacture of solar panels, lithium batteries, wind turbines, electric cables, motors, among other clean technology components. Thus, the copper demand will increase between 275% and 350% by 2050 [53], and for this reason, some large-scale copper mines in the world are transitioning from open pits to underground mines to continue the mining operations [54]. The selection of open pit or underground mining methods for Colombia’s critical mineral ores will be determined by the modifying factors of each mining project [55]. Modifying factors are considerations used to convert mineral resources to mineral reserves; these include, but are not restricted to, mining, processing, metallurgical, infrastructure, economic, marketing, legal, environmental, social, and governmental factors [56].

Discovering strategic mineral deposits requires large venture capital investments for exploration and geoscientific knowledge of the topsoil and subsoil. In this stage of exploration, 12 years generally elapse where perforations are developed with depths ranging between 30 and 1200 m, allowing the representation of a geological model and estimating the amount of mineral resources. Subsequently, every mining project seeks to convert its mineral resources to mineral reserves, which is achieved through sustainable project planning that includes the application of modifying factors. If the Works and Tasks Program (PTO) and the Environmental Impact Study (EIA) are approved by the competent national authorities, and with the respective environmental and social permits, the mining project may continue to the construction and assembly stage. They will spend an average of 5 more years in the construction and assembly of the mines before extracting and processing the first ton of raw material [44]. Thus, from the discovery of the mineral deposit to the establishment of the mine, 17 years are projected as the typical delivery time of the first ton of raw material processed of copper, nickel, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, or silver, while generating the products end of the energy transition such as electric cars, lithium batteries, or solar panels takes between 1 and 4 years [44]. From this perspective, the need for the supply and availability of sustainable raw materials is the bottleneck to guarantee energy transition and climate change, specifically due to the long duration of the exploration stage of mining projects and the associated risks.

The Colombian government must strategically manage the prospective areas based on geoscientific knowledge and market opportunities to comply with the Paris Agreement and the carbon neutrality commitments by 2050, for which it is completely necessary to promote and prioritize in the country sustainable projects for the exploration and extraction of copper, nickel, rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and silver with a view to metallurgy and final transformation of the products to add more value.

Leveraging mining activity for sustainable development in Colombia involves a multifaceted approach. From the technological development perspective, the country should shift from being a mere supplier of raw commodities to fostering downstream processing industries domestically. This entails investing in technology and infrastructure to refine and manufacture high-value products, creating skilled jobs and a more diversified economy. Additionally, Colombia should prioritize research and development (R&D) in mining-related technologies, fostering innovation through collaborations between government, academia, and industry. Technology transfer and collaboration with developed countries, education and skills development, and a commitment to environmental and social responsibility are crucial elements. Creating a supportive regulatory environment with incentives, improving infrastructure, and diversifying the economy will contribute to transforming the mining sector into a catalyst for sustainable technological development. In summary, Colombia’s path to leveraging mining for technological advancement involves a comprehensive strategy encompassing value addition, R&D, collaboration, education, sustainability, and economic diversification. By focusing on these aspects, Colombia can not only meet the global demand for commodities but also establish itself as a player in the global technology value chain, fostering long-term economic growth and resilience.

5.2. Future Scenarios on the Decommissioning of Mining Activity

From the early stages of exploration, it is essential to plan the mine closure, even before extraction begins. Anticipating closure from the outset not only acknowledges the temporality of mining activity but also establishes the groundwork for a more sustainable and responsible process. This early planning enables the implementation of advanced technologies and environmentally conscious practices, ensuring that mine closure is efficient, environmentally respectful, and socially equitable. Furthermore, addressing closure from the beginning facilitates the integration of the local community in decision making, promoting a smoother transition for workers and ensuring a positive legacy for future generations.

In an envisioned future scenario for the decommissioning of mining activity, advanced technological solutions drive an environmentally conscious process. Automated robotic systems, guided by artificial intelligence, ensure the safe dismantling and extraction of remaining resources, minimizing human risk [57]. Sustainable mining techniques and innovative recycling methods are employed, and environmental rehabilitation projects, including afforestation, phytoremediation, and water treatment, prioritize ecosystem restoration. Socially, community engagement is central with transparent communication channels and inclusive processes. Job retraining programs ease the local workforce transition, while social infrastructure development projects enhance education and healthcare. The scenario aims for a responsible and sustainable conclusion to mining, leaving a positive legacy for both the environment and communities.

6. Conclusions

The geographic locations of the prospective areas of Colombia of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silver, and rare earths are concentrated along the Andes Mountains in the Andean metallogenic domain. There is also a great opportunity for Colombia to explore the Amazonian metallogenic domain and define new prospective zones of the strategic minerals for energy transition and climate change. Cobalt is the one with the largest prospective area in Colombia, followed by copper, nickel, rare earths, lithium, and silver. The superimposition of all the prospective areas of strategic minerals of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silver, and rare earths adds up to 311,535.2 km², equivalent to 27.3% of the continental area of Colombia.

Silver is the energy transition mineral with the largest number of mining rights and applications in Colombia, followed by copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths. The total area of mining rights and applications that registered cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, silver, or rare earths as a mineral of interest occupies 112,802.2 km², which is equivalent to 9.9% of the surface of Colombia and represents 5731 mining rights and 3939 applications.

The energy transition mineral product with the highest mining extraction in Colombia has been nickel, followed by silver and copper. From 2012 to 2023, approximately 448,330 tons of nickel, 172.9 tons of silver, and 171.6 tons of copper were mined in Colombia (not counting the copper production from El Roble mine). Cordoba, Antioquia, and Choco are the departments that have contributed the greatest amount of strategic minerals to supply the energy transition.

A total of USD 513,140,286 has been collected for royalties from nickel, copper, and silver mining in Colombia from 2012 to 2023, generating well-being for the communities and citizens. Colombia does not have royalty collections for the mining extraction of lithium, cobalt, or rare earths.

Based on the common times of mining projects, especially on the duration of the exploration stages, the development of the mines, and the assembly of the metallurgical plants, and to comply with the Paris Agreement and the global carbon neutrality commitments by 2050, it is necessary to develop in Colombia new copper, nickel, rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and silver mining and metallurgy sustainable projects. Colombia’s path to leveraging mining for technological advancement involves a comprehensive strategy encompassing value addition, R&D, collaboration, education, sustainability, and economic diversification. By focusing on these aspects, Colombia can not only meet the global demand for commodities but also establish itself as a player in the global technology value chain, fostering long-term economic growth and resilience.