El Niño’s Implications for the Victoria Falls Resort and Tourism Economy in the Era of Climate Change

Abstract

Scientists agree that as global temperatures rise, the intensity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon also increases. In southern Africa, El Niño events often cause severe droughts that adversely affect a region’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, the impact of El Niño on the tourism industry in this area has not been studied sufficiently. This study examines how frequently El Niño events occur and their consequences on the Victoria Falls resort. It specifically focuses on the potential implications for the regional tourism economy during the 2023–2024 El Niño event. This study critically analyses potential strategies for tourism businesses to enhance their resilience in light of the increasing intensity of El Niño events in the region. Using the Niño 3.4 index, it has been determined that there have been at least four extreme El Niño events since 1980: 1983, 1998, and 2016, and most recently, in 2023/24. Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and hydrological data from the Victoria Falls hydrological station showed that El Niño events significantly affect water flows at Victoria Falls, negatively impacting the resort’s reputation and brand. Examination of tourism statistics reveals that drought often leads to a decline in tourism, negatively affecting tourist resort towns’ economies. Given the projected record-low water levels for late 2024, this study recommends implementing improved communication and marketing strategies that highlight low-water activities and other non-water-dependent tourism offerings at the resort to ensure the resilience of the tourism economy. There is an urgent need to promote resorts as year-round destinations to support the climate-resilient tourism sector.

1. Introduction

Tourism is a vital instrument for global development [1,2]. It directly and indirectly affects livelihoods. The importance of tourism development has become particularly apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many developing and developed economies, heavily reliant on tourism, faced challenges in maintaining economic sustainability as the world implemented strict lockdown measures [3]. Consequently, substantial disruptions to livelihoods and economic losses have occurred, underscoring the global significance of the tourism sector [4].

Tourism plays a significant role in developing southern African countries [5,6]. It plays a key role in addressing various Sustainable Development Goals, such as reducing high levels of unemployment, alleviating poverty, and generating essential funds for conservation efforts. Furthermore, tourism contributes to preserving natural resources and cultural heritage [7,8,9], aligning with multiple global goals.

Despite its significant contribution and societal importance, the tourism industry is susceptible to various shocks beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, such as terrorism attacks [10] and political instability. In addition, an existential threat exists, posed by extreme weather events and climate change [11,12]. The majority of tourism destinations and activities depend heavily on favourable weather conditions. Weather and climate facilitate travel, tourism, recreation, and various special events [13].

Extreme weather events such as droughts have been identified as a significant risk to the tourism economy in southern Africa [14,15]. This has led to a growing demand for the development of adaptation and resilience strategies for nature-based tourism to ensure long-term sustainability. Although droughts are natural occurrences, climate change has exacerbated global impacts [16,17,18]. Recently, there has been increased focus on droughts induced by El Nino [19,20,21,22]. It is worth noting that while drought falls under the category of climate variability, it has been observed to intensify due to climate change [23,24].

Very limited research has been conducted on the effects of El Niño-induced droughts on terrestrial ecosystems. Similarly, only a few studies have focused on its impact on marine ecosystems [25]. Xiong et al. [26] lamented the scarcity of research in this area and found that the El Niño drought decreased visits to national parks in the USA. Droughts caused by El Niño commonly lead to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), reducing disposable income and hindering people’s mobility. Consequently, this phenomenon has detrimental effects on UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Paxton et al. [27] observed that El Niño in southern Africa disrupts tourism activities such as bird watching, as migratory bird movements are disrupted, adversely affecting tourism flows in South America.

Cashin et al. [28] conducted a comprehensive analysis of the global impact of El Niño and observed that it had significant effects on local and global climatic system. El Niño is known to cause severe weather phenomena worldwide, often leading to droughts, heavy rainfall, and floods, disrupting travel arrangements. These extreme weather events damage tourism infrastructure, including hotels and transportation networks, consequently impeding travel. Furthermore, there are concerns that El Niño can cause disease outbreaks such as dengue fever, malaria, and water-borne illnesses [28]. Consequently, these developments have influenced changes in travel preferences in tourism planning.

It is widely acknowledged that El Niño weather events significantly impact global temperature anomalies [29], including sea surface temperatures. The rise in sea surface temperature and subsequent occurrence of heat waves are responsible for coral bleaching, which has a detrimental effect on oceanic and coastal tourism in numerous regions worldwide [30,31].

Given the exacerbating impact of extreme weather events, El Niño frequently leads to unfavourable media coverage of affected destinations and attractions. Media coverage of extreme weather events often portrays these areas as disaster areas. In an investigative study undertaken by Gössling et al. [32], it was found that extreme weather events, or even weather events in general, can damage a destination’s image, thereby altering its perceptions and undermining its reputation. Orbe and Gaztelumendi [33], on the other hand, contended that media portrayals of extreme weather, which are at times exaggerated, have a negative influence on tourism demand. Negative media coverage during weather-related disasters dissuades tourists from visiting such destinations [34].

Therefore, this study aims to investigate the potential implications of El Niño droughts in 2023/2024. To accomplish this objective, this study focused on analysing the impacts of drought on various climatic factors, such as rainfall, temperature, and water flow within the Zambezi River catchment area. Additionally, a historical analysis was conducted to examine the influence of previous events on the water flow of the Victoria Falls Resort and its corresponding impact on tourism. Furthermore, this research also aims to explore practical solutions that can assist the tourism sector in Victoria Falls and other relevant stakeholders to manage anticipated and recurring El Niño disasters effectively.

The central questions this study seeks to answer are as follows: (1) How does El Niño-induced drought impact water flow at waterfalls? (2) What is the potential impact of El Niño-induced drought on tourism in Victoria Falls as a destination? (3) How can the tourism sector in Victoria respond to potential threats from El Niño’s impact on resorts?

2. Materials and Methods

This study uses secondary and archival data to examine the water and tourism flow regimes at Victoria Falls. Victoria Falls frequently garners attention when water flow levels fall below the anticipated average flows for specific months. This often triggers significant tension among media outlets, tourism business owners, and governments as they stand to benefit from the taxes generated by tourism revenue. Given the severity and intensity of 2023/24 El Niño, evaluating the situation using scientifically verifiable facts is imperative. This approach is essential to ensure that tourism practitioners, the media, and the government are equipped with the necessary information to effectively manage media relations in light of the impacts of declining water flow at waterfalls due to droughts.

Victoria Falls is a UNESCO World Heritage Site of global significance. It is also important to Zimbabwe and Africa’s tourism and aviation economy, as evidenced by the numerous airlines operating flights to and from Victoria Falls, Kasane, and Livingstone Town, extending as far as Ethiopia and Kenya. Most airlines serving the Victoria Falls route originate from airports in South Africa and other neighbouring countries [35].

To assess the impact of drought on the river system that feeds into Victoria Falls, this study relied on archival and other secondary data from authoritative sources. Secondary data sources are typically used for meteorological and hydrological studies. Established systems regularly measure and archive such events, providing valuable resources for developing time-series analysis and detecting changes.

This study used hydrological data from the Zambezi River Authority, which oversees the recording of water hydrological parameters in the Zambezi Basin (Figure 1) [36]. Hydrological data between 1980 and the first half of 2024 were analysed. The Zambezi River Authority is the custodian of the hydrological data in the Zambezi Basin. It utilises hydrological data from Victoria Falls and secondary data from the Zimbabwe Tourism Authorities.

To understand the meteorological impact of the 2023/24 drought, this study relied on data from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society hosted by the Climate Program Office and Columbia University and supported by NOAA. They have a range of historical climate products and robust climate prediction services that assist in understanding current, past, and future climate patterns and data on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Their program supports a full suite of climate, weather, and Earth observation products, equipping researchers and society to understand climate and its impact. Several studies have been published on climate data [37,38,39].

It also relied on other relevant previously published tourism statistics from the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority. Given the dominance of tourist arrivals of Victoria Falls resorts in national figures, which can account for as much as 25% of tourist arrivals [35], as supplied by Zimbabwe Tourism, it will be used. The latest annual tourism report was analysed to determine how tourist arrivals were affected by previous El Niño events. To this extent, tourism numbers were interfaced with previous El Niño events in hydrological water to examine how hydrometeorological conditions affected tourist arrivals in the country.

The data analysis followed qualitative and quantitative data techniques. The quantitative data included the analysis of hydrological trends and the development of meteorological charts and graphs, as presented in the Results section. This involved using non-parametric tests applied to hydrological data in the form of Mann–Kendall Trend analysis to examine trends in water flows at the resort and understand how variations in hydrological flow affect tourists. Hydrological flows in the basin are mirrored by water flows at various hydrological stations, including Victoria Falls [36]. Mann–Kendall trend analysis was used for change detection purposes and for developing time series graphics to ascertain the impacts of drought on water flow. Microsoft Excel Analysis ToolPak (2021) analysed the water flow trend by inputting the raw hydrometeorological data. Metrics such as the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and temperature anomalies were computed from computations on the IRI website. Therefore, data customisation was applied to obtain data for the study region.

Content analysis was employed to analyse the annual reports and extract meaningful insights. To effectively address the research and sub-research questions, relevant content from the Zambezi River Authority, Zimbabwe Tourism Authority, and Google Trends was carefully chosen. This included scrutinising documents to extract information on tourism trends and media coverage to understand how droughts were portrayed. In summary, a content analysis process was systematically conducted. It involves formulating research questions, data sampling, selecting relevant data for analysis (considering the sources and their credibility), data categorisation, and applying data triangulation to ensure reliability. It is based on an analysis of a research report that was developed.

3. Results and Discussion

The study found that between 1980 and 2024, the world witnessed at least four extreme El Niño weather events, with the worst El Niño weather event experienced in 2016, as the Nino 3.4 index almost reached 2.8. The second extreme event occurred in 1996, followed by the 2023–2024 El Niño incident. Indeed, other El Niño event episodes, as shown in Figure 2, have a lower impact in terms of magnitude. It is critical to note that since 2010, prolonged El Niño events have occurred, with another episode occurring between 2014 and 2016 and another in 2019.

These El Niño events affect different areas of the world differently regardless of their magnitude and length. However, Africa seems to have suffered the worst of these events, particularly in southern Africa, where El Niño causes extreme droughts, as is normal [41].

Between 1980 and 2024, at least four severe El Niño events adversely affected water flows at Victoria Falls, as shown in Figure 3. Four other moderate El Niño events had mixed impacts on the hydrology of the waterfalls, as some of the events were preceded or followed by La Niña events. It is critical to note that some El Niño events did not necessarily cause droughts in Southern Africa in some years, as expected but went on to cause average to above-normal rainfall events. This is particularly true for the 2010 El Niño event with a Nino index of 1.8, which is a moderate average event (Figure 2). This view and finding were confirmed by Driver et al. [42], who also observed that as much as El Niño is expected to lead to normal to below-normal rainfall in southern Africa, the drought from 2009 to 2010 saw the region receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, evidence shows that the 2023/2024 hydrological season, from October 2023 to September 2024, will likely result in significantly low water-flow levels at Victoria Falls.

A monthly analysis of the hydrological data was conducted to gain a deeper insight into the impact of El Niño events. Evidence shows that the water flow at Victoria Falls from March to April 2024 is lower than the long-term average. Under normal circumstances, water levels are expected to rise in March; however, the water flow is expected to decline in March and April 2024 due to drought. The lowest water flow in April is observed in 2024 (Figure 4). At the beginning of May, the water levels for that month were at their record low because of the El Niño drought that began in 2023 after approximately three years of consecutive La Niña events. Regardless of the three years of La Niña during this period, the water in the waterfalls for certain periods remained below the long-term mean.

The water flow for 2023/24 was trailing during 1968/1969, another year with the lowest water flow at the hydrological station. Evidence from Figure 5 shows that the source region for the Zambezi River, which encompasses areas around the northwest, central and southern Zambia, the southeast of Angola and the Caprivi strip, was adversely affected by the El Niño drought, with Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) values ranging between −2 and −2.8 (Figure 4). This shows that droughts have made the Zambezi River catchment very dry. The analysis of seasonal precipitation anomalies shows that the Zambezi Valley area witnessed a rainfall decline of as much as −200 mm and −300 mm. Therefore, the El Niño drought for the 2023/24 rainfall season resulted in very dry to extremely dry conditions in the Zambezi River Basin and tributary areas.

The dry conditions and above-normal temperatures observed in the Zambezi Valley likely triggered increased evapotranspiration, further undermining the water flow in the Zambezi River. Evidence (Figure 6) shows that the area witnessed average temperature anomalies between January and March of approximately +1 °C. In contrast, other areas within the Zambezi Basin had temperature anomalies of +2 °C. Climate change and El Niño-induced temperature increases will prove challenging for the Zambezi Valley and its inhabitants in the latter part of 2024, when the region is generally hot. Previous studies have pointed to increased temperatures for tourists and other tourism players [44,45,46].

Figure 5. SPI levels for African region for rainfall season 2023–2024 October–March: source data customised from IRI [45].

Figure 5. SPI levels for African region for rainfall season 2023–2024 October–March: source data customised from IRI [45].

There are well-founded fears that a decline in water flow levels will result in a drop in tourist arrivals, adversely affecting the resort’s business and livelihood, as witnessed in previous drought episodes. Previous major drought episodes created a media frenzy, with the public arguing that the waterfalls had dried up. As Victoria Falls is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, there is much interest in resorts whenever something goes wrong. Figure 7 shows the level of interest in stories around the drying-up of waterfalls in the global international media. Highlighted media attention peaked at 100 Google Trends in 2016 and again in 2019/2020. During these episodes, the media was awash with stories that said, ‘Victoria Falls has dried up’ due to a similar El Niño drought. This shows the heightened global media attention concerning drought impacts on the Victoria Falls waterfalls. There is evidence of media attention being paid to the 2023 droughts and their impact on waterfalls. Undoubtedly, the media will continue to pay close attention to this issue until the end of 2024. The impact of drought is likely to be more visible during the low-flow season between October and early January.

Media attention to Victoria Falls has attracted the attention of international and domestic tourism markets. Such media attention casts a negative image on Victoria Falls resort, which often dents the destination image, resulting in tourist cancellations and adversely affecting businesses in the area. All years of water flow decline were punctuated by a drop in tourist arrivals to the resort (Figure 8), starting with the 1982, 1998, 2016, and 2019/2020 droughts, partly influenced by the El Niño drought event. Due to the severe decline in water levels, negative media publicity on Victoria Falls upsets potential visitors to the resort. Previous studies have indicated that tourists are not keen to visit dry waterfalls [35]. Negative media publicity has been confirmed as a key challenge that leads to a decline in tourist arrivals.

The destination has not yet developed a crisis communication strategy despite repeated droughts to ensure tourism resilience. With record low water levels expected from October through December 2024, this study postulates that there is a need to consider what will happen when this reality dawns, given previous episodes and experiences. Although waterfalls are a primary attraction, many water-based tourism activities are only feasible during the low-water season. Victoria Falls businesses can market such activities to ensure the sustainability of the tourism market and reduce the impact of drought-induced fluctuations in tourist flow. Water-based tourism activities, such as swimming at the Devil’s Pool and white-water rafting, occur only during the low-water flow season.

The river channel created by the water in the Zambezi River provides the most epic picture views using a helicopter when the water is low. The helicopter flights (a popular tourist attraction) provide some of the most memorable experiences and pictures when the water is low owing to reduced humidity, often a characteristic of the high-flow season. Vitoria Falls provides a 12-month season, with each season offering activity. It provides a variety of appealing adventure activities, regardless of seasonal or annual variations in water, such as bungee jumping and zip lining. Victoria Falls is located in a national park and forms part of one of the largest safari hubs. The Zambezi River provides ample opportunities for wildlife photography and game viewing up to the Chobe in Botswana, making Victoria a must-visit any time of the year. Tourists have several activities to take part in during a visit to Victoria Falls, such as walking with lions.

The river also provides ample opportunities for fishing and boat riding. All of these activities occur, regardless of the water flow at the waterfalls. The Victoria Falls waterfalls span nearly 2 km (1708 m), so despite the reduced water flow, there is always water flowing at the waterfalls, as water is concentrated in some sections of the waterfalls. This message is critical for potential tourists. The issue of drying-up waterfalls is often a result of a severe decline in water flow, which largely affects areas east of the Livingstone Waterfalls in the Eastern Cataract (see Figure 9), as some areas can be ordinarily dry during the low-water season. The Devil Cataract to the west and the main waterfalls maintain an almost steady flow throughout the year. On average, 935 m³ of water flowed through Victoria Falls, which could be reduced to approximately 100 m³/s.

Victoria Falls and Livingstone on the Zambian side also offer tourists several things, including conference opportunities and several conference facilities within the city. Several eateries can easily be considered hubs for African cuisine tourism. Several hotels have five-star restaurants that serve both local and international cuisine. Located near the Caprivi Strip (KAZA region), local cuisine is shaped by rich cultural heritage from Zimbabwe, Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, and Angola. This history shapes the rich cultural heritage tradition, forming part of the tourism products manifested in cuisine, cultural villages, dance, music, arts, and crafts in Victoria Falls and Livingstone. This tradition is visible in craft centres and art galleries in the town.

The waterfalls and a significant part of the city have a rich history and heritage dating back to the early Stone Age, as evidenced by the archaeology of the waterfalls. Victoria Falls has a rich heritage that has not been marketed as a tourism product in the resort. There is evidence of San or Kwango occupation in areas around Victoria Falls.

This study highlights the direct and indirect vulnerability of tourism enterprises such as Victoria Falls. The tourism industry, particularly in southern Africa, has been threatened by multiple weather threats such as droughts, coastal erosion, desertification and heat waves, to mention a few. El Niño events, amplified by climate change, are problematic, particularly in water-based tourism features and several tourism destinations. The 2023/2024 El Niño event caused severe drought, which threatened the economic prospects of Victoria Falls. Given the consequences of the decline in water levels at waterfalls, there are fears that this will result in negative media publicity, as waterfalls’ aesthetic and recreational value is often undermined by a decline in water flow.

Heightened media attention during extreme droughts as water flow declines is often associated with confusion, exaggeration, and, in some instances, outright falsehood over the state of waterfalls. This negative media coverage often results in a bad destination image, which often causes visitor cancellations and compromises the economic performance of Victoria Falls. Tourists tend to shun destinations perceived as disaster zones, which causes visitors to decline even after the event. This starves the destination of the munch of needed revenue that can be used to support the tourism value chain in the area, including starving the area of conservation revenue, which can undermine sustainability efforts. This development calls for changes in marketing strategies to provide tourists with accurate information. Strategic communication aimed at informing tourists is critical in managing such disasters. Such efforts must be made collaboratively by bringing in all the relevant stakeholders, such as the tourism industry, conservation groups, media agencies, and government, to provide tourists with an accurate and holistic picture to help them decide. The use of traditional social media is critical.

This study underscores the need for the tourism industry to implement adaptation measures to build resilience. Such efforts can only be made at the destination level, given that each destination has different vulnerability levels, and the impacts vary from destination to destination.

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

This study revealed that the occurrence of El Niño significantly impacted the water flow in the Victoria Falls waterfalls. El Niño events often lead to severe droughts in the Zambezi Basin, a water source for the falls. Decreased water flow at waterfalls can attract substantial media attention, negatively affecting tourist arrivals and the resort tourism industry. The El Niño drought of 2023/24 is one of the four most extreme events experienced by resorts since 1980. This drought was likely to result in low water flow, which could impede the recovery of the tourism industry from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study proposed various measures to enhance tourism resilience in this area. One recommendation is to develop a range of tourism offerings independent of high-water levels. This diversification can help mitigate economic risks associated with fluctuating water levels. The tourism industry should promote activities unaffected by water levels, such as wildlife safaris, cultural tours, and adventure sports, such as bungee jumping and zip-lining, which can attract tourists throughout the year. Additionally, the tourism sector in Victoria Falls and the surrounding region must establish a robust communication strategy that counters negative publicity and educates prospective visitors on the seasonal variability of falls. The availability of alternative attractions during dry periods is, therefore, essential. This can be facilitated by utilising social media and other digital platforms to disseminate accurate positive images and narratives.

This study emphasises the need for close collaboration between the government, the tourism industry, and conservation groups to develop comprehensive strategies to address the challenges posed by climate variability. Collaboration should include joint marketing efforts and resource sharing for sustainability initiatives. Encouraging and promoting sustainable practices within the tourism industry is also crucial for minimising the ecological footprint of tourism activities. This could involve implementing water conservation measures, reducing waste, and encouraging tourists to engage in eco-friendly practices. Monitoring climatic conditions and tourist patterns will enable informed decision-making and timely adjustment of strategies. To that end, the study underscores the need to develop policies that promote climate change mitigation and adaptation within the tourism industry to buttress climate change resilience within the tourism industry. Policy development to enhance green tourism and marketing will bode well for the resort.

Further research on the long-term impact of climate change on regional hydrology can provide valuable insights for planning and development. This study is significant because it contributes to the knowledge of the impact of El Niño weather events, which is critical for regions such as southern Africa which are vulnerable to such extreme weather events. This study offers practical recommendations by providing valuable and actionable recommendations.

Future studies should determine how future events will affect resorts and similar destinations, such as the Okavango Delta, which are susceptible to hydrological changes. Future studies can be conducted to ascertain how this event affects the tourism economy, including jobs and the economy of the resort and country.

Study Limitations: This study was based on secondary data. The other datasets were of low resolution, which could have reduced the confidence of certain metrics. The generalizability of this case study is limited. The effectiveness of the proposed communication strategies in countering negative publicity may not have been empirically tested, leading to uncertainties regarding their practical implementation and impact.