Unlocking Sustainable Rural Tourism to Support Rural Development: A Bayesian Approach to Managing Water-Based Destinations in Indonesia

Rural tourism is a vital component of rural development in countries like Indonesia, leveraging the natural beauty, scenic landscapes, cultural heritage, and unique rural lifestyle to drive progress. Water-based tourism, which makes use of reservoirs, is a prevalent form of rural tourism in Indonesia, with one notable example being the Kedung Ombo reservoir area. Despite the potential advantages it offers, rural tourism in Kedung Ombo encounters challenges stemming from the intricate interactions of nature, stakeholders, and uncertainties related to decision-making factors. This study seeks to conduct a strength analysis and explore scenarios or combinations of scenarios that are best suited for the sustainable management of water-based tourism in a participatory manner. It aims to investigate the relationships between various components of tourism management, external and internal conditions, and the complex dynamics between human systems and the environment. Recognizing the importance of embracing uncertainty in managing tourist villages, the study utilizes Bayesian network analysis as an appropriate analytical tool to achieve its research objectives. The research highlights that the sustainability of rural water-based tourism in Kedung Ombo hinges on factors such as financial incentives, stakeholder engagement, business scalability, accesibility, and environmental considerations related to the reservoir.