Impact of Public Health Emergencies on the Willingness of Rural Migrant Workers to Return Home: Evidence from China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Data Source
2.2. Research Methodology
2.2.1. Theoretical Analysis
2.2.2. Structural Equation Model
2.3. Variable Selection
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of Structural Equation Model Estimation and Test Results
3.2. Model Hypotheses Test
3.2.1. Direct Hypothesis Testing
3.2.2. Mediation Effect Test
4. Discussion
4.1. Mechanisms Influencing Willingness to Return Home
4.2. Policy Implication
- Actively introducing employment stability policies. This study finds that public health emergencies do not directly cause a willingness to return home; rather, employment stability directly influences both income level and the willingness to return home. During the epidemic, restrictions on the movement of people, regional lockdowns, and enterprise closures had severe impacts on migrant workers. Local governments should actively implement burden-reduction policies for enterprises and provide employment subsidies, policy counseling, job recommendations, and other forms of assistance to enhance the employment stability of migrant workers.
- Pay attention to the psychological state of migrant workers. Due to the occurrence of public health emergencies and the consideration of the cost of living in the city, coupled with the influence of the risk of physical health and the elderly and children left behind in the hometown, migrant workers are under psychological pressure in many aspects. The local government should provide psychological counseling channels and health education and publicity, advocate for all sectors of society to be concerned about and support migrant workers, and strengthen the supervision of enterprises’ employment behavior to prevent enterprises from taking advantage of the epidemic to maliciously default on wages or layoff employees, so as to further reduce the economic pressure and psychological burden of migrant workers.
- Promoting the integrated development of urban and rural, and improving measures for the resettlement of people returning to their hometowns. The integrated development of urban and rural areas is crucial for addressing major social contradictions. At the institutional level, policies and measures to promote rural development should be actively introduced. The rural revitalization strategy is an important measure to advance rural development and achieve modernization of agricultural and rural areas. The return of migrant workers injects new vitality into rural revitalization. For those returning to rural areas to engage in agricultural production, risks should be mitigated by providing agricultural production subsidies, asset-income distribution, and skill training. Promoting local employment for returnees can be realized through vocational skills training, public service posts, placement in employment assistance workshops, and other measures. For those wishing to start their own business, necessary policy and financial support should be provided to create a conducive entrepreneurial environment. Additionally, returnees should be encouraged to re-enter the workforce. Government departments should facilitate job introductions, provide transportation subsidies, and offer employment skills training to enhance the employability of migrant workers (Figure 4).
4.3. Contribution and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Indicator | Frequency | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|
Gender | Male | 2378 | 82.60% |
Female | 501 | 17.40% | |
Age | 18–25 | 231 | 8.00% |
26–35 | 719 | 25.00% | |
36–45 | 707 | 24.60% | |
46–60 | 1195 | 41.50% | |
60+ | 27 | 0.90% | |
Academic qualifications | Undergraduate and above | 46 | 1.60% |
junior college student | 88 | 3.10% | |
High school | 385 | 13.40% | |
Junior high school | 1386 | 48.10% | |
Primary school or below | 974 | 33.80% | |
Marital status | Single | 545 | 18.90% |
Married | 2334 | 81.10% | |
Health status | Very healthy | 811 | 28.20% |
Healthy | 812 | 28.20% | |
General | 937 | 32.50% | |
Low healthy | 238 | 8.30% | |
Unhealthy | 81 | 2.80% |
Latent Variable | Observed Variables | Definition | Mean | SD | Skewness | Kurtosis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public health emergencies | PHE1: I feel as though my life and health are in jeopardy | 1 represent “strong disagree”; 2 “disagreement”; 3 “general agreement”; 4 “agreement”; 5 “strong agreement”. | 3.09 | 1.173 | −0.155 | −0.798 |
PHE2: I’m nervous about the epidemic | 3.18 | 1.125 | −0.242 | −0.704 | ||
PHE3: I believe the epidemic will linger for a very long period | 3.07 | 1.23 | −0.103 | −0.955 | ||
PHE4: Contentment with healthcare provided during the pandemic | 1 represent “extremely satisfied”; 2 “satisfied”; 3 “fair”; 4 “unsatisfied”; 5 “extremely dissatisfied”. | 2.98 | 1.139 | −0.114 | −0.939 | |
PHE5: Contentment with public services during the pandemic | 3.03 | 1.241 | −0.143 | −1.011 | ||
Sense of belonging to hometown | SOB1: Number of left-behind children | - | 3.12 | 1.295 | −0.221 | −1.003 |
SOB2: Number of empty nesters | - | 3.08 | 1.307 | −0.159 | −1.026 | |
SOB3: Concerned about the development of their hometowns | 1 represents “Very unconcerned”; 2 “Not concerned”; 3 “Fairly concerned”; 4 “Concerned”; 5 “Very concerned”. | 3.12 | 1.298 | −0.199 | −0.982 | |
SOB4: Relationships with family members | 1 represents “Not in touch very often”; 2 “Not in touch”; 3 “Usually”; 4 “More often”; 5 “Frequently contacted”. | 3.12 | 1.3 | −0.135 | −1.032 | |
SOB5: Employment opportunities in the nation of origin | 1 represents “little”; 2 “less”; 3 “average”; 4 “more”; 5 “a lot”. | 3.22 | 1.26 | −0.437 | −0.84 | |
SOB6: Employment support policies in the hometown | 3.18 | 1.297 | −0.27 | −0.921 | ||
Employment stability | ES1: Work changes during the last three years | 1 represents “4 or more times”; 2 “3 times”; 3 “2 times”; 4 “1 time”; 5 “0 times”. | 3.53 | 1.347 | −0.505 | −0.985 |
ES2: Number of days of shutdown this year | 1 represents “more than 45 days”; 2 “30–45 days”; 3 “15–30 days”; 4 “up to 15 days”; 5 “No effect”. | 3.54 | 1.343 | −0.525 | −0.994 | |
ES3: Overall satisfaction with employment status | 1 represents “Very dissatisfied”; 2 “Dissatisfied”; 3 “Fair”; 4 “Satisfied”; 5 “Very satisfied”. | 3.62 | 1.283 | −0.618 | −0.795 | |
ES4: Businesses are doing well this year | 1 represent “strongly disagree”; 2 “disagreement”; 3 “general agreement”; 4 “agreement”; 5 “strong agreement”. | 3.5 | 1.249 | −0.612 | −0.621 | |
ES5: I fear I may lose my job | 1 represents “Strongly agree”; 2 “Agree”; 3 “Generally”; 4 “Disagree”; 5 “Strongly disagree”. | 3.66 | 1.27 | −0.677 | −0.631 | |
ES6: Access to jobs | 1 represents “Other”; 2 “Individual choice”; 3 “Introduced by relatives and friends”; 4 “Introduced by intermediary firms”; 5 “Unified government organization”. | 3.61 | 1.323 | −0.57 | −0.963 | |
ES7: Level of vocational skill | 1 represents “None”; 2 “Junior Laborer”; 3 “Intermediate Laborer”; 4 “Senior Laborer”; 5 “Technician”. | 3.5 | 1.35 | −0.556 | −0.91 | |
Income level | IL1: Monthly wage level | 1 represents “less than $2000”; 2 “$2000–3000”; 3 “$3000–4000”; 4 “4000–5000 yuan”; 5 “more than 5000 yuan”. | 2.6 | 1.15 | 0.361 | −0.702 |
IL2: Changes in wages compared to the pre-epidemic period | 1 represents “Decreased by more than 10%”; 2 “Decreased by less than 10%”; 3 “Largely unchanged”; 4 “Increased by less than 10%”; 5 “increased by more than 10%” | 2.51 | 1.117 | 0.536 | −0.373 | |
IL3: Existence of wage arrears | 1 represents “Strongly agree”; 2 “Agree”; 3 “Generally”; 4 “Disagree”; 5 “Strongly disagree”. | 2.56 | 1.298 | 0.61 | −0.752 | |
IL4: I think wages will continue to fall. | 2.78 | 1.207 | 0.171 | −0.917 | ||
Willingness to return home | HI1: I’m more inclined to return home than to the city | 1 represents “strongly disagree”; 2 “disagreement”; 3 “general agreement”; 4 “agreement”; 5 “strong agreement”. | 3.05 | 1.123 | −0.208 | −0.697 |
HI2: Satisfaction with social welfare in the workplace | 3.16 | 1.164 | −0.089 | −0.8 | ||
HI3: I think the homecoming will go smoothly. | 3.05 | 1.218 | 0.013 | −0.931 | ||
HI4: I know a lot about homecoming policy. | 3.14 | 1.236 | −0.15 | −0.968 | ||
HI5: I think it’s easy to get a job after returning home | 3.16 | 1.224 | −0.099 | −0.962 |
Constructs | Items | Factor Loading | Cronbach’s α | AVE | CR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public health emergencies | PHE1 | 0.833 | 0.922 | 0.7036 | 0.9222 |
PHE2 | 0.815 | ||||
PHE3 | 0.8 | ||||
PHE4 | 0.851 | ||||
PHE5 | 0.892 | ||||
Sense of belonging to hometown | SOB1 | 0.875 | 0.962 | 0.8091 | 0.9621 |
SOB2 | 0.913 | ||||
SOB3 | 0.893 | ||||
SOB4 | 0.93 | ||||
SOB5 | 0.861 | ||||
SOB6 | 0.923 | ||||
Employment stability | ES1 | 0.837 | 0.955 | 0.7558 | 0.9557 |
ES2 | 0.856 | ||||
ES3 | 0.958 | ||||
ES4 | 0.789 | ||||
ES5 | 0.933 | ||||
ES6 | 0.879 | ||||
ES7 | 0.821 | ||||
Income level | IL1 | 0.966 | 0.867 | 0.6495 | 0.8772 |
IL2 | 0.663 | ||||
IL3 | 0.614 | ||||
IL4 | 0.921 | ||||
Willingness to return home | HI1 | 0.902 | 0.95 | 0.7966 | 0.9513 |
HI2 | 0.846 | ||||
HI3 | 0.816 | ||||
HI4 | 0.948 | ||||
HI5 | 0.943 |
Public Health Emergencies | Sense of Belonging to Hometown | Employment Stability | Income Level | Willingness to Return Home | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public health emergencies | 0.7036 1 | ||||
Sense of belonging to hometown | 0.269 | 0.8091 1 | |||
Employment stability | −0.161 | −0.157 | 0.7558 1 | ||
Income level | −0.242 | −0.22 | 0.487 | 0.6495 1 | |
Willingness to return home | 0.13 | 0.256 | −0.199 | −0.255 | 0.7966 1 |
Fit Indicator | RMSEA | GFI | IFI | TLI | CFI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Acceptable Fit Values | <3 excellent, <5 good | <0.080 | >0.900 | >0.900 | >0.900 | >0.900 |
Fit Values | 4.810 | 0.045 | 0.963 | 0.985 | 0.982 | 0.985 |
Hypothesis | Paths | Unstandardized Coefficients | Z-Value | P 1 | Standardized Coefficients | Hypothesis Test |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1a | PHE 2→HL 3 | 0.019 | 0.904 | 0.366 | 0.018 | Unsupported |
H1b | PHE→IL 4 | −0.193 | −9.595 | *** | −0.169 | Supported |
H1c | PHE→ES 5 | −0.188 | −8.101 | *** | −0.16 | Supported |
H1d | PHE→SOB 6 | 0.256 | 11.127 | *** | 0.221 | Supported |
H2a | ES→GI | −0.075 | −3.863 | *** | −0.082 | Supported |
H2b | IL→HI | −0.159 | −7.695 | *** | −0.17 | Supported |
H2c | SOB→HI | 0.178 | 9.978 | *** | 0.194 | Supported |
H3a | ES→IL | 0.452 | 25.587 | *** | 0.466 | Supported |
H3b | ES→HI | −0.052 | −2.438 | 0.015 | −0.052 | Unsupported |
H3c | IL→SOB | −0.145 | −6.46 | *** | −0.143 | Supported |
Paths | Type of Effect | Point Estimate | Product of Coefficients | Bootstrapping | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bias-Corrected 95% | Percentile 95% | |||||||
Standard Error | Z-Value | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | |||
PHE 1→HI 2 | Total effect | 0.077 | 0.025 | 3.08 | 0.03 | 0.125 | 0.029 | 0.125 |
Direct effect | 0.018 | 0.02 | 0.9 | −0.02 | 0.056 | −0.02 | 0.056 | |
Indirect effect | 0.059 | 0.008 | 7.375 | 0.045 | 0.076 | 0.045 | 0.075 | |
PHE→SOB→HI | Indirect effect | 0.004 | 0.004 | 1 | −0.004 | 0.012 | −0.004 | 0.012 |
PHE→IL 3→HI | 0.029 | 0.005 | 5.8 | 0.02 | 0.039 | 0.02 | 0.038 | |
PHE→ES 4→HI | 0.013 | 0.004 | 3.25 | 0.006 | 0.022 | 0.006 | 0.021 | |
PHE→IL→SOB 5→HI | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | |
PHE→ES→SOB→HI | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | |
PHE→ES→IL→HI | 0.013 | 0.002 | 6.5 | 0.008 | 0.018 | 0.008 | 0.017 | |
PHE→ES→SOB→HI | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0.001 | |
ES→HI | Direct effect | −0.082 | 0.021 | −3.905 | −0.123 | −0.038 | −0.125 | −0.040 |
Total effect | −0.164 | 0.019 | −8.632 | −0.203 | −0.127 | −0.199 | −0.125 | |
Indirect effect | −0.082 | 0.010 | −8.200 | −0.102 | −0.062 | −0.102 | −0.061 | |
ES→IL→HI | Indirect effect | −0.079 | 0.010 | −7.900 | −0.101 | −0.060 | −0.100 | −0.059 |
ES→SOB→HI | −0.001 | 0.001 | −1.000 | −0.004 | 0.001 | −0.004 | 0.001 | |
ES→IL→SOB→HI | −0.001 | 0.001 | −1.000 | −0.004 | 0.001 | −0.004 | 0.001 |
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Xie, C.; Li, T.; Liao, H.; Chen, X.; Zhou, T. Impact of Public Health Emergencies on the Willingness of Rural Migrant Workers to Return Home: Evidence from China. Sustainability 2024, 16, 7375. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177375
Xie C, Li T, Liao H, Chen X, Zhou T. Impact of Public Health Emergencies on the Willingness of Rural Migrant Workers to Return Home: Evidence from China. Sustainability. 2024; 16(17):7375. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177375
Chicago/Turabian StyleXie, Chuanfeng, Tao Li, Heping Liao, Xinan Chen, and Tingting Zhou. 2024. "Impact of Public Health Emergencies on the Willingness of Rural Migrant Workers to Return Home: Evidence from China" Sustainability 16, no. 17: 7375. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177375