The application of the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model to prioritize European investment sectors based on different ESG factors has yielded significant insights. The results are summarized in the following section, detailing the ESG criteria weights, sector rankings, and comparative and sensitivity analysis. The following section contains the detailed mathematical analysis for prioritizing the ten European investment sectors based on twelve ESG parameters. The MEREC method is applied initially under a fuzzy environment to evaluate the criteria weights followed by the application of AROMAN to prioritize the ten investment options. One of the primary strategies employed in this study to mitigate bias is the careful selection of a diverse panel of experts. By including experts from various disciplines—environmental science, social governance, and financial analysis—the study ensures that a wide range of perspectives is considered. This diversity helps balance any individual biases that might arise from a single expert’s background or experience. Each expert team provided evaluations based on their domain expertise, which were then synthesized to form a comprehensive assessment of each investment sector. A transparent and iterative evaluation process was adopted to enhance the reliability of the expert assessments. Experts were provided with the opportunity to review and discuss their initial evaluations, allowing a consensus to be reached on contentious points. This iterative approach not only helps in refining the assessments but also fosters greater accountability, as experts are aware that their inputs are subject to scrutiny and discussion. Additionally, documentation of the evaluation process, including how disagreements were resolved, adds another layer of transparency, making it easier to identify and address any residual biases. Fuzzy logic was employed in this study to address the inherent subjectivity and uncertainty in expert judgments. Unlike traditional crisp evaluations, fuzzy logic allows for the representation of uncertainty and ambiguity in expert opinions, enabling more nuanced assessments. By converting qualitative assessments into quantitative data, fuzzy logic reduces the likelihood of extreme or biased judgments disproportionately affecting the overall results. This approach also facilitates the aggregation of opinions from multiple experts, ensuring that the final evaluation reflects a balanced view rather than being overly influenced by any single expert. The following steps are followed to achieve the primary objectives of the current research:
Table 14.
Normalized decision matrix (MEREC).
| CCCE | RME | BLU | PWM | LPWC | DI | CESI | CRPS | BCI | ECI | TD | ACEP |
---|
GB | 1 | 0.810 | 0.397 | 0.616 | 0.882 | 1 | 0.662 | 0.616 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.577 |
SRI | 0.808 | 0.654 | 0.529 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 0.577 | 0.577 | 0.714 | 0.765 | 0.529 | 0.863 | 0.714 |
ETF | 0.654 | 0.810 | 1 | 0.882 | 1 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 1 | 0.684 | 0.429 | 1 | 1 |
IIF | 1 | 0.654 | 0.346 | 0.662 | 0.714 | 0.577 | 0.577 | 0.577 | 0.619 | 0.429 | 0.808 | 0.577 |
REI | 1 | 0.654 | 0.346 | 0.577 | 0.882 | 0.714 | 0.662 | 0.577 | 0.867 | 0.6 | 0.808 | 0.577 |
CBL | 0.808 | 0.810 | 0.529 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.882 | 0.714 | 0.684 | 0.429 | 1 | 0.714 |
SB | 0.808 | 0.75 | 0.429 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 0.577 | 0.714 | 0.867 | 0.6 | 0.808 | 0.714 |
REIT | 0.577 | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.790 | 0.714 | 1 | 0.714 | 0.534 | 0.346 | 1 | 1 |
TF | 0.808 | 0.810 | 0.397 | 0.714 | 1 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 0.714 | 0.765 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.714 |
CS | 0.577 | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.790 | 0.714 | 1 | 1 | 0.534 | 0.429 | 1 | 1 |
Table 15.
Computation of criteria weights using MEREC.
| CCCE | RME | BLU | PWM | LPWC | DI | CESI | CRPS | BCI | ECI | TD | ACEP | Si |
---|
GB | 0.236 | 0.222 | 0.173 | 0.203 | 0.228 | 0.236 | 0.208 | 0.203 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.199 | 0.236 |
SRI | 0.322 | 0.309 | 0.296 | 0.315 | 0.315 | 0.301 | 0.301 | 0.315 | 0.319 | 0.296 | 0.326 | 0.315 | 0.335 |
ETF | 0.171 | 0.186 | 0.200 | 0.192 | 0.200 | 0.177 | 0.177 | 0.200 | 0.174 | 0.141 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 |
IIF | 0.404 | 0.380 | 0.343 | 0.381 | 0.385 | 0.373 | 0.373 | 0.373 | 0.377 | 0.356 | 0.392 | 0.373 | 0.404 |
REI | 0.341 | 0.316 | 0.276 | 0.308 | 0.334 | 0.321 | 0.316 | 0.308 | 0.333 | 0.310 | 0.328 | 0.308 | 0.341 |
CBL | 0.215 | 0.215 | 0.186 | 0.229 | 0.229 | 0.229 | 0.221 | 0.206 | 0.203 | 0.171 | 0.229 | 0.206 | 0.229 |
SB | 0.302 | 0.298 | 0.262 | 0.295 | 0.295 | 0.295 | 0.281 | 0.295 | 0.307 | 0.284 | 0.302 | 0.295 | 0.315 |
REIT | 0.230 | 0.266 | 0.233 | 0.266 | 0.251 | 0.244 | 0.266 | 0.244 | 0.225 | 0.196 | 0.266 | 0.266 | 0.266 |
TF | 0.262 | 0.262 | 0.216 | 0.254 | 0.276 | 0.254 | 0.254 | 0.254 | 0.259 | 0.243 | 0.276 | 0.254 | 0.276 |
CS | 0.193 | 0.230 | 0.196 | 0.230 | 0.215 | 0.208 | 0.230 | 0.230 | 0.188 | 0.173 | 0.230 | 0.230 | 0.230 |
Ei | 0.156 | 0.149 | 0.451 | 0.160 | 0.107 | 0.194 | 0.204 | 0.203 | 0.213 | 0.427 | 0.047 | 0.186 | 2.496 |
Weights | 0.063 | 0.060 | 0.181 | 0.064 | 0.043 | 0.078 | 0.082 | 0.081 | 0.085 | 0.171 | 0.019 | 0.075 | 1 |
% | 6.3 | 6.0 | 18.1 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 17.1 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 100 |
Table 16.
Aggregated normalized matrix.
Nature | Min | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max |
---|
Weights | 0.063 | 0.060 | 0.181 | 0.064 | 0.043 | 0.078 | 0.082 | 0.081 | 0.085 | 0.171 | 0.019 | 0.075 |
| CCCE | RME | BLU | PWM | LPWC | DI | CESI | CRPS | BCI | ECI | TD | ACEP |
GB | 0.347 | 0.186 | 0.291 | 0.307 | 0.157 | 0.056 | 0.257 | 0.302 | 0.055 | 0.038 | 0.072 | 0.347 |
SRI | 0.214 | 0.343 | 0.185 | 0.219 | 0.341 | 0.347 | 0.345 | 0.214 | 0.160 | 0.190 | 0.250 | 0.215 |
ETF | 0.109 | 0.186 | 0.036 | 0.112 | 0.065 | 0.215 | 0.213 | 0.055 | 0.212 | 0.265 | 0.072 | 0.056 |
IIF | 0.347 | 0.343 | 0.354 | 0.263 | 0.341 | 0.347 | 0.345 | 0.346 | 0.265 | 0.265 | 0.340 | 0.347 |
REI | 0.347 | 0.343 | 0.354 | 0.352 | 0.157 | 0.215 | 0.257 | 0.346 | 0.107 | 0.152 | 0.340 | 0.347 |
CBL | 0.214 | 0.186 | 0.185 | 0.059 | 0.065 | 0.056 | 0.108 | 0.214 | 0.212 | 0.265 | 0.072 | 0.215 |
SB | 0.214 | 0.239 | 0.260 | 0.219 | 0.341 | 0.215 | 0.345 | 0.214 | 0.107 | 0.152 | 0.340 | 0.215 |
REIT | 0.056 | 0.061 | 0.148 | 0.059 | 0.249 | 0.215 | 0.055 | 0.214 | 0.352 | 0.360 | 0.072 | 0.056 |
TF | 0.214 | 0.186 | 0.291 | 0.219 | 0.065 | 0.215 | 0.213 | 0.214 | 0.160 | 0.152 | 0.072 | 0.215 |
CS | 0.056 | 0.061 | 0.148 | 0.059 | 0.249 | 0.215 | 0.055 | 0.055 | 0.352 | 0.265 | 0.072 | 0.056 |
Table 17.
Ranking of European investment sectors.
Nature | Min | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Max | Li | Ai | Ri | Rank |
---|
| CCCE | RME | BLU | PWM | LPWC | DI | CESI | CRPS | BCI | ECI | TD | ACEP |
---|
GB | 0.022 | 0.011 | 0.053 | 0.020 | 0.007 | 0.004 | 0.021 | 0.025 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.179 | 0.570 | 5 |
SRI | 0.013 | 0.020 | 0.034 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.027 | 0.028 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.032 | 0.005 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.222 | 0.587 | 3 |
ETF | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.017 | 0.005 | 0.018 | 0.045 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.135 | 0.450 | 9 |
IIF | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.064 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 0.027 | 0.028 | 0.028 | 0.023 | 0.045 | 0.006 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.299 | 0.694 | 1 |
REI | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.064 | 0.023 | 0.007 | 0.017 | 0.021 | 0.028 | 0.009 | 0.026 | 0.006 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.247 | 0.644 | 2 |
CBL | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.034 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.018 | 0.045 | 0.001 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.163 | 0.519 | 7 |
SB | 0.013 | 0.014 | 0.047 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.017 | 0.028 | 0.017 | 0.009 | 0.026 | 0.006 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.210 | 0.574 | 4 |
REIT | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.027 | 0.004 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.004 | 0.017 | 0.030 | 0.062 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.181 | 0.484 | 8 |
TF | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.053 | 0.014 | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.017 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.026 | 0.001 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.189 | 0.551 | 6 |
CS | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.027 | 0.004 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.030 | 0.045 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.151 | 0.448 | 10 |
4.1. Validation
To ensure the robustness and reliability of the prioritization results derived from the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model, a comprehensive validation process was conducted. This process involved two primary strategies: comparative analysis with other well-established MCDM tools and detailed sensitivity analysis. The goal of these validation strategies was to confirm the accuracy, consistency, and adaptability of the proposed model in evaluating and prioritizing European investment sectors based on ESG factors. The comparative analysis aimed to benchmark the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model against other MCDM methods to identify any disparities or consistencies in the results. The sensitivity analysis was designed to test the model’s stability under varying conditions by employing two techniques, varying the trade-off parameter ‘β’ and single-dimensional sensitivity analysis. These validation steps are crucial in demonstrating the efficacy and reliability of the model in providing robust investment sector rankings.
4.1.1. Comparison with Other MCDM Techniques
The comparative analysis aims to evaluate the performance of the AROMAN method relative to seven other established MCDM tools, namely TOPSIS, ARAS, COCOSO, EDAS, WSM, WPM, and WASPAS. This comparison is crucial for understanding the robustness and reliability of the AROMAN method in prioritizing European investment sectors based on various ESG factors. Comparative analysis is an essential aspect of the MCDM field. It involves evaluating and comparing different MCDM methods to understand their performance, strengths, weaknesses, and applicability in various decision-making scenarios. This analysis is crucial for ensuring that the chosen method aligns with the decision context and provides reliable and accurate results. Different MCDM methods have unique characteristics and approaches. Comparative analysis helps to identify the most suitable method for a specific decision problem. It allows for the evaluation of the robustness and reliability of different MCDM methods. By applying multiple methods to the same decision problem and comparing the results, inconsistencies and potential biases can be identified. This process ensures that the chosen method produces stable and dependable results, which is particularly important in complex decision-making scenarios with conflicting criteria. Comparative analysis also highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each technique, aiding in informed method selection. It contributes to this by ensuring that the selected method aligns with the decision-maker’s objectives and preferences and the nature of the decision problem. By comparing the outcomes of various methods, decision-makers can validate their choices and gain confidence in the final decision, knowing that it is backed by a thorough evaluation of alternative approaches. To further mitigate the influence of expert bias, the results obtained from the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model were cross-validated using other well-established MCDM methods. This comparative analysis serves as a robustness check, ensuring that the rankings produced by the proposed model are consistent with those derived from alternative methodologies. If significant discrepancies were observed, they would prompt a re-examination of the expert inputs, helping to identify and correct potential biases.
Comparative analysis not only helps in selecting the appropriate method but also contributes to the development and improvement of MCDM techniques. By understanding the limitations and performance of existing methods, researchers can innovate and develop new methods that address identified gaps and enhance decision-making processes. This continuous improvement cycle is vital for the evolution of the MCDM field, leading to more effective and sophisticated decision-making tools. In many decision-making scenarios, especially in public policy and business, transparency and justification of the chosen method are crucial. Comparative analysis provides a systematic way to justify the selection of a specific MCDM method, enhancing the credibility and acceptability of the decision process. Decision-makers can demonstrate that their choice is based on a comprehensive evaluation of alternatives, thereby increasing stakeholder trust and support.
Table 18 clearly highlights the ranking comparisons among seven applied tools, and the spearman correlation coefficient (SCC) shown in
Table 19 highlights the reliability and alignment of the AROMAN method with other established MCDM tools. The rankings obtained from different MCDM tools are also compared with the help of a clustered column chart shown in
Figure 5.
The SCC is a non-parametric measure of rank correlation. It assesses how well the relationship between two variables can be described using a monotonic function. In MCDM analysis, the SCC plays a crucial role in comparing and validating the rankings produced by different MCDM methods. The SCC helps to determine the consistency between rankings generated by different MCDM methods. High correlation indicates that the methods produce similar rankings, enhancing confidence in the results. This is crucial for validating the robustness of the decision-making process and ensuring that different methods lead to comparable conclusions. By comparing the rankings of alternatives from various MCDM methods, the SCC provides a statistical measure of reliability. A high correlation suggests that the methods are reliable and consistent, even if they use different approaches or criteria weighting mechanisms. Low SCC highlights the divergences between methods, indicating potential methodological issues or differences in how criteria are handled. On the other hand, a high SCC among different MCDM methods increases confidence in the decision-making process by demonstrating that the chosen method aligns well with others. This is particularly important in stakeholder-driven decision processes where transparency and justification are crucial. Therefore, the SCC is significant in MCDM analysis for ensuring ranking consistency and enhancing decision confidence. By providing a statistical measure of the agreement between different MCDM methods, it plays a vital role in the robustness and reliability of multi-criteria decision-making processes.
4.1.2. Sensitivity Analysis
In the context of MCDM, sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for assessing the stability and robustness of the obtained results. The primary objective of this study necessitates a comprehensive understanding of how variations in input parameters can influence the final rankings of investment sectors. Sensitivity analysis provides insights into the reliability of the decision-making model and highlights the critical factors that significantly impact the prioritization process. Sensitivity analysis serves as a robustness check for the MCDM model. By examining how sensitive the results are to variations in input parameters, we can validate the reliability of the final rankings. This validation is particularly important for decision-makers who rely on these rankings to make informed investment choices. Sensitivity analysis also helps to identify which criteria have the most significant impact on the final decision. Understanding the influence of individual criteria allows for a more nuanced approach to decision-making, where critical factors are given appropriate attention and less influential factors are considered accordingly. By demonstrating that the model’s results are stable under various scenarios, sensitivity analysis enhances confidence in the recommendations. Decision-makers can be assured that the prioritized sectors are robustly chosen, even when there are uncertainties in the input data. Moreover, sensitivity analysis promotes transparency in the decision-making process. By openly examining how changes in criteria weights affect the outcomes, the process becomes more transparent, allowing stakeholders to understand and trust the results. Sensitivity analysis plays a critical role in controlling for expert bias by testing the stability of the results under varying assumptions and input weights. In this study, sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess how changes in the weight of different ESG criteria influenced the final sector rankings. By systematically varying these weights and observing the impact on the outcomes, the study was able to determine whether any particular expert’s judgment had an outsized influence on the results. If the rankings remained stable across different scenarios, it would indicate that the model is robust to potential biases.
In MCDM analysis, sensitivity analysis is used to provide a deeper understanding of the model’s behavior to the decision-makers. This informed perspective allows for better judgment and more strategic decision-making. MCDM models often involve complex calculations and the integration of diverse criteria. Sensitivity analysis tests whether small changes in inputs lead to significant changes in outputs, thus evaluating the model’s stability. Real-world data are often subject to uncertainties and variations. Sensitivity analysis helps address these uncertainties by exploring a range of possible scenarios and their impacts on the decision-making outcomes. By understanding how different factors influence the results, MCDM models can be refined and improved to ensure robustness. This iterative process of model improvement is essential for developing reliable decision-support tools. Hence, sensitivity analysis is a fundamental component of the MCDM process. It validates the model’s reliability, identifies critical criteria, enhances decision-making confidence, and ensures transparency. By systematically examining the impact of varying parameters, sensitivity analysis fortifies the robustness of the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model, thereby providing a solid foundation for prioritizing European investment sectors based on ESG factors. In this research, two distinct sensitivity analysis methods were employed:, varying the trade-off parameter (β) and single-dimensional sensitivity analysis, which are discussed thoroughly in the upcoming sub-sections.
Varying the Trade-Off Parameter
In the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model, the trade-off parameter, beta (
β), plays a crucial role in determining the relative importance of different alternatives. ‘
β’ essentially acts as a balancing factor that adjusts the aggregated normalized values, thereby influencing the final rankings of the investment sectors. ‘
β’ is a parameter that adjusts the level of compromise or trade-off between two normalization process in an MCDM context. In the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model, ‘
β’ determines how the importance of each normalization procedure is factored into the overall evaluation of each investment sector. To understand the impact of ‘
β’ on the final rankings, it is varied systematically within a predefined range. Typically, ‘
β’ is adjusted from 0 to 1 with an incremental step of 0.1. At
β = 0, the model might prioritize the linear normalization heavily over the other technique, while at
β = 1, the model might treat the vector normalization that is mostly preferred over the linear process, depending on the model’s specific formulation. This involves applying the developed model with new ‘
β’ values to determine the influence of each normalization technique on the overall score of each investment sector. The rankings of the ten European investment sectors are then recalculated based on these updated values as presented in
Table 20. The ranking variations obtained at different ‘
β’ values have been compared graphically in
Figure 6.
Single-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis
Single-dimensional sensitivity analysis (SDSA) is a technique used to evaluate the robustness and stability of a decision-making model by varying the weight of the most important criterion while adjusting the weights of other criteria accordingly. This method helps in understanding how sensitive the final rankings are to changes in the weight of the most critical criterion. SDSA focuses on the most important criterion, which is typically identified based on its initial weight in the decision-making model. By varying the weight of this criterion, the analysis aims to observe the effect on the final ranking of alternatives. This helps in assessing the influence of the most critical criterion on the overall decision. The weight of the most important criterion is varied within a feasible range. This range is determined by the initial weight and the constraints that all criteria weights must sum up to 1. The remaining weights of the other criteria are adjusted proportionally to maintain the total weight sum constraint, i.e.,
. In SDSA, the variation in the criterion weights is non-proportional, meaning that the ratio of weights among criteria changes with each adjustment. This results in a new combination of weights for every variation of the most important criterion. The maximum possible weight (
) for the chosen criterion is determined using Equation (17) to define the feasible range of weight variation. The weight can be reduced to 0 or increased to ‘
’ without violating the total weight constraint. The value of ‘
’ is calculated using an equation that ensures the additivity of weights and non-negativity constraint. This ensures that the weights of the remaining criteria are adjusted properly.
SDSA helps in understanding the influence of the most important criterion on the overall decision. This is crucial for verifying the robustness of the decision-making model. By analyzing the stability of rankings with varying weights, SDSA ensures that the model is robust and reliable. If the rankings remain consistent, the model can be considered stable and dependable. This analysis helps in identifying which criteria have the most significant impact on the final decision. It provides insights into which criteria are critical and need careful consideration. Conducting SDSA enhances confidence in the decision-making model by demonstrating that the model has been tested for various scenarios. This ensures that the prioritization of alternatives is based on a thorough and rigorous analysis.
Table 21 shows the 10 sets of criteria weights obtained by varying the weightages of the maximum criteria within a range with an incremental value of 0.05. The alternative rankings obtained from different criteria sets are plotted graphically in
Figure 7 to observe the ranking variations.
4.2. Discussions
This section discusses the results obtained from applying the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model to prioritize European investment sectors based on various ESG factors. The criteria weights and sector rankings were derived from the model, providing insights into the relative importance of ESG factors and the preferred investment sectors. The criteria weights computed in
Table 15 indicate that biodiversity and land use (BLU) and executive compensation and incentives (ECI) have the highest significance, with weights of 18.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Transparency and disclosure (TD) is considered to be the least significant criterion with a weight of 1.9%. Similarly, the ranking presented in
Table 17 reveals that impact investing funds (IIFs), renewable energy investments (REIs), and sustainable and responsible investment (SRI) funds are the top three preferred sectors for investment. These sectors ranked highest due to their strong performance across various ESG factors, particularly in areas like biodiversity and land use, community engagement, and anti-corruption practices. In contrast, ESG-compliant stocks (CSs) and ESG-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are ranked the lowest, indicating they are less favorable for investment based on the evaluated ESG criteria.
The high weight assigned to biodiversity and land use and executive compensation and incentives highlights the critical importance of environmental sustainability and governance practices in investment decisions. This aligns with growing global awareness and regulatory pressures for companies to address biodiversity loss and ensure fair executive compensation practices. Impact investing funds ranking highest among the alternatives suggests that investments specifically targeting positive social and environmental impacts are highly valued when considering ESG factors. This reflects the increasing investor preference for impact-driven investment strategies that contribute to societal and environmental well-being. The lower ranking of ESG-focused ETFs and ESG-compliant stocks may indicate that while these investment vehicles are popular, they may not address ESG factors as comprehensively as direct impact investments or sector-specific funds. The computed weights and rankings also underscore the relative importance of governance factors, with board composition and independence and anti-corruption and ethical practices having substantial influence on sector prioritization. This highlights the role of robust governance structures in driving sustainable investment decisions. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model in integrating diverse ESG factors into a cohesive framework for investment prioritization. This approach provides a clear understanding of how different ESG factors influence investment decisions and offers a robust tool for investors seeking to align their portfolios with sustainable and responsible investment principles.
Now let us pay attention on the rankings obtained from different MCDM methods and compared in
Table 18.
Table 18 clearly reveals that all models consistently rank impact investing funds as the top performer. This unanimous agreement underscores the strong ESG performance of IIFs, making them a highly reliable and attractive investment option across different MCDM methodologies. Renewable energy investment and sustainable responsible investment sectors also show high consistency in their rankings, being placed in the top positions by most of the methods. This indicates their robustness as favorable investment options when evaluated through different decision-making perspectives. Green bonds and real estate investment trust sectors exhibit significant variability in their rankings. For instance, GB is ranked fifth by AROMAN but ninth by TOPSIS, and REIT is ranked eighth by AROMAN but third by TOPSIS. This variability suggests that the evaluation criteria and weighting used by different methods significantly impact the rankings of these sectors. ESG-focused exchange-traded funds and ESG-compliant stock sectors are consistently ranked lower across all methods. The consistent lower rankings indicate a general consensus on their relatively weaker performance in terms of ESG criteria, making them less favorable investment options. Similarly, thematic funds and social bond sectors tend to occupy mid-tier positions across different models, indicating a moderate level of agreement on their performance. This consistency provides some level of confidence in their evaluation, though not as strong as the top or bottom performers.
Moving towards
Table 19, the Spearman correlation coefficients provide valuable insights into the degree of agreement among the different MCDM methods used to rank European investment sectors based on ESG factors.
Table 19 clearly suggests that AROMAN exhibits a very high correlation with COCOSO and WSM (both at 0.903). This indicates that AROMAN shares significant similarities in ranking patterns with these methods, suggesting a comparable weighting and evaluation process. It is also noticeable that most MCDM methods show high correlation coefficients (above 0.8), indicating a strong agreement in their rankings of the investment sectors. This high level of agreement suggests that despite methodological differences, these methods generally produce similar outcomes. The moderate correlation of AROMAN with TOPSIS (0.552) indicates some level of agreement, but also some notable differences in its ranking approach compared to others. This divergence may be due to the employment of different normalization or aggregation techniques that lead to different prioritization compared to AROMAN. The high correlation values of AROMAN with most of the other methods validate the robustness of this MCDM approach. It suggests that the differences in methodological details do not significantly affect the overall ranking outcomes, providing confidence in their use for ESG-based investment prioritization. While AROMAN shows strong correlations with some methods, its moderate correlation with TOPSIS indicates that AROMAN maintains some level of independence. This independence can be valuable in offering a unique perspective that might capture different aspects of ESG performance not emphasized by other methods. The general high correlations across all methods support the reliability of the entire MCDM analysis. The use of multiple methods provides a comprehensive analysis, ensuring that the final investment sector prioritization is well rounded and robust.
From the first round of sensitivity analysis, the ranking outcomes provided in
Table 20 at different ‘
β’ values suggest that IIFs consistently ranked first across all values of ‘
β’ from 0 to 1, demonstrating their exceptional stability and robustness. This indicates that IIFs are the top choice regardless of the trade-off parameter, reflecting strong overall performance across all ESG criteria. REI also highlights its consistent performance and robustness, maintained a stable ranking at second position across all ‘
β’ values. Investment options SRI, SB, GB, TF, CBL and REIT maintained their positions from third to eighth consistently across all the ‘
β’ variations, showing highly stable performance and reliability as an investment option. European sector options that rank first to eighth indicate that the performance is not significantly affected by changes in the trade-off parameter. However, some ranking alterations are observed in the last two positions between the ETF and CS sectors. ETF initially ranked 10th for ‘
β’ values from 0 to 0.4, then improved to 9th position for ‘
β’ values from 0.5 to 1. This slight improvement suggests some sensitivity to the trade-off parameter but generally remains in the lower ranks. Similarly, CS ranked ninth for ‘
β’ values from 0 to 0.4 and then shifted to tenth for ‘
β’ values from 0.5 to 1, indicating some sensitivity but overall consistent low performance.
The model’s top (IIF, REI) and bottom (ETF, CS) performers exhibit significant stability in their rankings across varying trade-off parameters. This suggests that these sectors’ performance is highly robust and not significantly influenced by changes in the trade-off parameter, indicating strong reliability for decision-makers. Sectors such as SRI, SB, and TF also show consistent rankings, reflecting the model’s robustness in maintaining stable performance across the middle tier. Some sectors, like ETF and CS, exhibit minor shifts in their rankings, indicating that while the model is generally robust, there is some sensitivity to the trade-off parameter for certain sectors. However, these shifts are not drastic, underscoring the model’s overall stability. Therefore, the consistent rankings across varying ‘β’ values imply that investors can rely on the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model to provide stable and robust recommendations for investment sectors based on ESG criteria. The stability of the model enhances its credibility and reliability in decision-making processes.
We will now focus on the ranking variations obtained from single-dimensional sensitivity analysis presented in
Table 21. The same scenario is observed in that impact investing funds consistently ranked first across all sets followed by renewable energy investments in the second position, demonstrating their outstanding stability and robustness. This indicates that IIFs followed by REIs are the top choices regardless of variations in the weight of the most important criterion. The model’s two top performers exhibit exceptional stability across all sets, underscoring their robustness and reliability as prime investment choices based on ESG criteria. The mid-tier performer, SRI, ranked 3rd across most sets, with slight variations (4th in set 8, 5th and 6th in sets 9 and 10, respectively), indicating overall stability with minor sensitivity to weight changes. SB generally ranked fourth with minor ranking deviations in sets 7 and 8, showing robust mid-tier performance with slight sensitivity. Although the lower-tier performers exhibit some slight ranking deviations, no significant changes in positions have been found, indicating stable and strong low performance. This stability is crucial for identifying sectors that may need improvement in their ESG performance. The minor variations observed in some sectors suggest that while the model is generally robust, it is sensitive to changes in the weight of the most important criterion. However, these variations do not significantly impact the overall stability and reliability of the model. The consistent rankings across varying sets of criteria weights imply that investors can rely on the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model to provide stable and robust recommendations for investment sectors. This consistency enhances the model’s credibility and reliability in decision-making processes.
In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis indicates that the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN MCDM model is highly stable and robust, particularly in identifying top and bottom performers among the European investment sectors based on ESG factors. This stability ensures that the model can be trusted for making consistent and reliable investment decisions, even when the trade-off parameter and the weight of the most important criterion are varied.
4.2.1. Broader Implications for International Investors and Linking to Global Trends
The prioritization of impact investing funds aligns with findings from several global studies, which emphasize the effectiveness of impact investing in achieving both financial returns and positive social outcomes. For instance, Yan et al. [
82] discuss the dual benefits of impact investing in generating financial returns while also addressing critical social and environmental issues. Similarly, recent research by Wang et al. [
83] demonstrates that impact investing has gained significant traction worldwide, particularly in Europe and North America, where investors are increasingly prioritizing sectors that contribute to sustainable development goals (SDGs). Renewable energy investments have also been identified as a top sector in various studies due to their role in mitigating climate change. According to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, 2021) [
84], investments in renewable energy have surged globally, driven by the urgent need to transition to low-carbon economies. This aligns with the present study’s findings, where REI ranked highly due to its positive impact on climate change and carbon emissions, a factor that has been weighted significantly in this study.
Sustainable and responsible investment funds have been highlighted in previous studies as an evolving trend, particularly in Europe and North America. Studies by Eurosif (2018) [
85] and the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance (GSIA, 2020) [
86] show that SRI funds have grown substantially, driven by investor demand for ethical investment options. The present study confirms these findings, showing that SRI funds are among the top-ranked sectors, particularly excelling in diversity and inclusion and community engagement. On the other hand, the lower ranking of ESG-compliant stocks and ESG-focused exchange-traded funds reflects findings from previous studies which indicate that while these options provide a broad-based approach to ESG investing, they may lack the targeted impact that more specialized funds like IIFs or REIs can offer. For instance, Yang et al. [
87] found that ETFs, while popular, often dilute the impact of ESG considerations by spreading investments across a wide array of companies, some of which may not fully adhere to high ESG standards.
The findings of this study are not only relevant within the European context but also have significant implications for global investors. The emphasis on biodiversity and land use as the most critical factor resonates with global environmental concerns, particularly in regions where deforestation, habitat loss, and land degradation are major issues, such as in the Amazon basin [
88] and Southeast Asia [
89]. This suggests that investment strategies prioritizing biodiversity could be universally applicable, offering both ecological and financial benefits. Moreover, the high ranking of renewable energy investments and impact investing funds aligns with the global shift towards sustainable energy and social equity, as seen in the Paris Agreement [
90] and the United Nation’s SDGs. Investors in regions like North America, Asia, and emerging markets can use these findings to better align their portfolios with global sustainability trends, potentially enhancing long-term returns while contributing to positive societal outcomes. The consistency of the study’s results with global trends reinforces the importance of ESG factors in investment decision-making worldwide. As sustainability becomes a core consideration for investors globally, the relevance of these findings extends beyond Europe. For instance, in a study by Aldowaish et al. [
91], a meta-analysis of over 2000 empirical studies demonstrated a positive correlation between ESG criteria and corporate financial performance, highlighting that the integration of ESG factors is beneficial across different markets. Similarly, the application of the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN model in this study offers a robust decision-making framework that can be adapted and applied in other regions. The model’s ability to handle the complexities of ESG criteria and its validation through multiple MCDM methods underscores its utility in various contexts, making it a valuable tool for investors globally.
In conclusion, this study contributes significantly to the literature on ESG-focused investment by providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating investment sectors based on multiple ESG criteria. The alignment of these findings with those from other countries and regions underscores the global relevance of the identified investment priorities. This study not only adds to the growing body of knowledge on sustainable investing but also provides practical insights for international investors looking to integrate ESG factors into their decision-making processes [
92,
93]. By linking the findings with global trends and studies, this research enhances its appeal to a broader audience, offering a valuable resource for investors worldwide.
4.2.2. Theoretical Contributions
The following research makes several significant theoretical contributions to the field of MCDM and sustainable investment evaluation. Some of the contributions are outlined below:
The integration of fuzzy logic with the MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model addresses the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty in expert judgment, providing a more accurate and reliable evaluation framework. By incorporating fuzzy logic, the model captures the complexities of ESG factors, leading to a detailed and precise prioritization of investment sectors.
The research develops a comprehensive framework that assesses investment sectors across 12 diverse and conflicting ESG criteria, categorized into environmental, social, and governance factors. The use of the MEREC method for evaluating criteria weights ensures a systematic and unbiased determination of the relative importance of each ESG factor.
The application of the AROMAN method provides a robust mechanism for ranking investment sectors based on their aggregated ESG performance scores, enhancing the reliability of the prioritization process. The AROMAN method’s ability to be compared with other MCDM tools validates its robustness and reliability, contributing to the broader MCDM literature.
The sensitivity analysis, including varying the trade-off parameter, demonstrates the model’s flexibility and adaptability to different weighting scenarios, ensuring the robustness of the results. This approach highlights the impact of individual criteria weights on the final rankings, providing deeper insights into the significance of each ESG factor in the decision-making process.
This research offers a practical tool for investors and policymakers to make informed decisions regarding sustainable investments, aligning financial goals with ESG considerations. By providing a detailed and validated model for ESG investment prioritization, the study contributes to the growing body of literature on sustainable finance and responsible investing.
This research makes substantial theoretical contributions by integrating fuzzy logic with the MEREC-AROMAN model, developing a comprehensive ESG evaluation framework, applying robust prioritization techniques, and validating the model through sensitivity analysis. These contributions advance the field of MCDM and sustainable investment evaluation, offering a sophisticated approach to prioritizing European investment sectors based on ESG factors.
4.2.3. Managerial Implications
This research also has several significant managerial implications that can guide stakeholders and managers in the ESG sectors. Some potential implications are discussed as follows:
Managers and investors can use the results of this research to make more informed investment choices by understanding which sectors align best with ESG criteria. By prioritizing sectors with strong ESG performance, managers can mitigate risks associated with poor environmental, social, and governance practices.
The model helps in identifying sectors that are not only financially viable but also socially and environmentally responsible, enabling optimal allocation of resources towards sustainable investments. Investing in sectors with high ESG ratings can lead to long-term value creation for stakeholders by fostering sustainable business practices.
The findings encourage companies to align their corporate governance practices with ESG goals, improving transparency, accountability, and ethical standards. Emphasizing ESG factors in decision-making can enhance trust and credibility among stakeholders, including customers, employees, and investors.
Policymakers can use the insights from this research to formulate regulations and policies that promote sustainable investments and corporate responsibility. The model provides a framework for companies to ensure compliance with evolving ESG standards and reporting requirements.
Companies and investment firms that prioritize ESG factors can differentiate themselves in the market, attracting socially conscious investors and customers. Focusing on ESG criteria helps in managing and enhancing the company’s reputation, which is increasingly important in today’s business environment.
The model provides a structured approach for companies to communicate their ESG efforts and performance to stakeholders, fostering better engagement and support; this encourages collaboration between businesses, investors, and other stakeholders to achieve common ESG goals, promoting a more sustainable economic ecosystem.
The managerial implications of this research are profound, offering a comprehensive framework for integrating ESG factors into investment decision-making, resource allocation, corporate governance, and policy formulation. By adopting the Fuzzy-MEREC-AROMAN decision-making model, managers and policymakers can enhance their strategies to foster sustainable development and long-term value creation, ultimately contributing to a more responsible and ethical business environment.