Constituents over Correlation: Indicators and Arctic Urban Decision-Making

Arctic city mayors influence municipal sustainability outcomes, navigating decisions on waste management, social service funding, and economic development. How do mayors make these decisions and to what extent do they integrate sustainability indicator data? Interviews with the mayors of Fairbanks, Alaska, Yellowknife, Canada, and Luleå, Sweden, revealed indicators are used on a case-by-case basis to track trends but lack systematic integration into decision-making. Constituent concerns drive agendas rather than indicator trends. Based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines, 128 indicators grouped into 19 sustainability themes were compiled from 2000 to 2019 for the study cities. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was applied to examine the utility of ISO indicators as a guiding factor for sustainability trend tracking, identifying key themes for each city. Results show that indicator trends are too inconsistent and interconnected to be useful as an independent form of guidance for mayors. For Arctic municipalities, sustainability indicator datasets are useful in specific circumstances, but they do not provide the same kind of decision-making heuristic that mayors receive from direct constituent interaction. Findings emphasize the importance of more robust data collection and the development of management frameworks that support sustainability decision-making in Arctic cities.