4.1. Economic Loss Assessment Results
The expected loss ratio is one of the main outcomes of the intensity-based cost assessment. The ratio of the mean economic loss to the total construction cost defines the expected loss ratio for a specific shaking intensity.
Figure 4 shows the loss functions, which represent the expected loss ratios for a range of S
a(T
1) intensities, for the benchmark archetype BAB (
Figure 4a) and the archetype seismically enhanced with dampers BAB+FVD (
Figure 4b). The figures also provide the loss breakdown in terms of the following: (i) the cost of building collapse; (ii) irreparable damage or demolition; and (iii) repairable damage, expressed in terms of a percentage (%) of the initial construction cost of the BAB. Similarly,
Figure 5 shows the results for archetypes BAB+ENC (
Figure 5a) and BAB+FVD+ENC (
Figure 5b). According to the hazard curve from the PSHA, S
a(T
1) intensities could be defined for 72-, 475-, 2475-, and 4975-year return periods (i.e., SLE = 0.05 g, DBE = 0.15 g, MCE = 0.35 g, and VRE = 0.45 g, respectively).
It can be observed that the expected earthquake-induced repair costs are negligible and do not exceed 0.4% for the SLE intensity. Likewise, the expected losses are limited, with values of no more than 4.1%, for the DBE. Conversely, at MCE and VRE intensity levels, the expected costs are significantly larger. For example, the benchmark archetype BAB depicts loss ratios of 19.3% and 37.0% of the building replacement cost for the 2475 and 4975 return periods, respectively. Nonetheless, a comparison between these values and those reported in other studies on high-rise RC wall buildings under subduction seismicity [
37] for the 475-year hazard level indicate smaller losses for Chilean RC buildings than for those located in Seattle (i.e., Cascadia subduction zone) which were designed to comply with the US codes. A common characteristic of Chilean RC building is the large lateral stiffness, due to stricter inter-story drift limits and base shear requirements, which yields small lateral displacement demands and, therefore, reduced damage and economic losses. Moreover, in Chilean buildings the cost contribution of non-structural components is significantly less important than in US buildings, which is another reason why economic losses are smaller in Chilean buildings.
Regarding the impact of FVDs, results indicate that the repair cost of the seismically improved Chilean RC dual wall–frame building with energy-dissipating devices (i.e., BAB+FVD) is 30–40% less than that of the conventional design (i.e., BAB). Certainly, this reduction is more meaningful at extreme intensities (MCE and VRE) than at frequent intensities (SLE and DBE). For instance, the repair cost drops from 19.3% to 13.1% of the building replacement cost at the MCE intensity, and from 37.0% to 21.1% at the VRE intensity.
Regarding the influence of the enhanced non-structural components, results show slight reductions in repair costs at all intensity levels, revealing that the cost–benefit of this strategy is limited (at least for the case study considered in this study). This observation must be regarded cautiously, since further studies will be needed to consider RC buildings with different heights, seismicity levels, and soil types. Previous studies on commercial buildings with more flexible structures, such as steel moment-resistant frame buildings [
19], found more significant impacts due to the enhancement of the seismic performance of non-structural components such as partition walls.
From the loss breakdown, it is identified that the major contributor to the mean loss is repairable damage to structural and non-structural components, up to Sa(T1) = 0.80 g for the BAB and BAB+ENC archetypes and up to Sa(T1) = 0.90 g for the archetypes equipped with FVDs. For the benchmark archetype BAB, loss ratios due to irreparable damage become meaningful at very extreme intensities, between 0.45 g and 0.70 g, whereas collapse damage is meaningful at intensities greater than 1.0 g.
Despite the scarce information available related to ground motions, it is presumed that the 2010 Chile earthquake produced peak ground accelerations from 0.20 g to 0.25 g in the commercial district of Santiago [
6]. RC high-rise buildings (T
1 ~ 2.0 s, similar to the fundamental period of the archetype buildings considered in this study) could experience S
a values in the order of 0.15 g to 0.20 g. Therefore,
Figure 6 and
Table 5 present the explicit metrics of the loss breakdown at the S
a(T
1) intensity of 0.20 g for the base building and for the seismically improved buildings. Some interesting observations can be pointed out, as follows. For the BAB, the major contributor to the repairable damage is non-structural damage, with a total value of 4.4% of the building replacement cost, whereas 3.1% is the value for structural damage (slab–column joints, shear walls, and beam–column joints). Regarding the non-structural damage, the acceleration-sensitive components (e.g., mechanical, electrical, plumbing, elevators, and ceilings) represent 2.8% of the losses, while the displacement-sensitive components (e.g., stairs, partitions, and façade) represent 1.6% of the losses. These results show a significant contribution of acceleration-sensitive non-structural components to losses in commercial buildings during the 2010 Chile earthquake, which is in agreement with studies that have evaluated in detail the economic losses actually generated by this event [
1].
On the other hand, the building equipped with dampers (BAB+FVD) shows important loss reductions in the structural components (i.e., 60%), especially in the column joints, and smaller reductions for the non-structural components (i.e., reductions of 25%). The building with enhanced non-structural components (BAB+ENC) exhibits relatively small loss reductions in most of the non-structural components, but, as expected, important reductions in lightweight partitions (i.e., 40%, similar to that of the BAB+FVD). The last strategy (BAB+FVD+ENC) combines the beneficial reductions in structural and non-structural components, with significant reductions in partitions (i.e., 60%). Finally, costs related to demolition and collapse seem to be negligible at this specific S
a(T
1) intensity, and this observation agrees again with the empirical evidence observed after the 2010 Chile earthquake, where just one office building suffered a partial collapse in Concepcion [
6].
Although comparisons at different intensity levels can be valuable, it should be considered that different S
a(T
1) intensities are associated with different annual exceedance rates (i.e., different probabilities of occurrence). To account for this issue, the economic losses were integrated with the absolute value of the derivative of the hazard curve to estimate the EAL, according to Equation (2). The EAL, which represents the average annual economic loss due to seismic damage, plays a crucial role in the evaluation of different enhancement strategies with FVDs and/or ENCs.
where
E[
L|
IM] represents the loss function and
represents the derivative of the hazard curve.
Figure 7 and
Table 6 show the EAL as a ratio of the BAB construction cost (USD 1660 per square meter).
Table 6 shows EAL values in the order of 0.125, 0.106, 0.093, and 0.082% for the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC archetypes, respectively. The strategy of incorporating FVDs into the base building gives a 25% reduction in the base EAL, while with the strategy of including ENCs a reduction of only 15% is achieved. For the strategy that combines FVDs and ENCs, the reduction is greater than 35% but at the expense of a higher initial construction cost (106% of the BAB cost, as previously assumed). Note that these results seem to be much smaller than those for steel office buildings in the USA, which have more flexible structural systems (and, consequently, a greater level of damage) as well as different building inventories, dominated by non-structural components that are more susceptive to earthquake damage than structural components [
19]. For instance, for a special moment-resistant-frame building with T
1 = 1.86 s (similar to the fundamental period of the office buildings analyzed in this study), the EAL could be as large as 1.6%.
Table 6 also shows the disaggregated EAL information for the cost of collapse, irreparable damage, and repairable damage. In all cases, the contribution of collapse or demolition to losses is relatively low. Furthermore, a significant contribution of non-structural damage is evident, especially of those components sensitive to acceleration. This would indicate that Chilean stiff RC structures have important floor acceleration demands that are just slightly reduced with the incorporation of FVDs. Results revealed that the incorporation of ENCs, FVDs, and a combination of the previous two strategies achieved EAL values of 0.106%, 0.093%, and 0.082%, respectively, while the archetype base building without design improvements reached an EAL of 0.125%. The latter indicates EAL reductions (compared to the base case) of 15%, 26%, and 34% for the cases of BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC, respectively, where the largest effect was provided by the incorporation of FVDs due to the reduced damage to both structural components and non-structural components sensitive to story drift ratios.
4.2. Downtime Assessment Results
For the intensity-based downtime assessment, the framework proposed by Molina Hutt et al. [
13] was adopted to calculate the following outputs and resilience-based metrics: (i) the recovery trajectory, which shows the progress of building restoration or reconstruction over time to reach a target recovery state; (ii) the robustness; and (iii) the rapidity. As an example,
Figure 8 shows the simulated recovery trajectories describing building usability at any time after an earthquake with S
a(T
1) = 0.20 g (associated with the 2010 Chile earthquake) for the four archetypes. Building usability ranges from 0% to 100%, where 100% indicates that all floors of the building have achieved the desired recovery state, and 0% indicates that none have. Specifically,
Figure 8 displays the governing recovery trajectories to achieve the FR state for all 2000 realizations. The plots highlight the large uncertainty associated with downtime estimates (the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles are shown). From the figures, the median FR times are 212 (BAB in
Figure 8a), 206 (BAB+ENC in
Figure 8b), 166 (BAB+FVD in
Figure 8c), and 161 (BAB+FVD+ENC in
Figure 8d). Decreases in mean downtime values are noticeable when the building is equipped with FVDs (i.e., reductions of 20%). On the other hand, minimal reductions in the order of 3% are achieved when the building incorporates ENCs.
Regarding the buildings’ seismic performance in terms of robustness, which describes the probability of a building not achieving a target recovery state immediately after an earthquake, there are interesting behaviors. Results indicate that under the Sa(T1) = 0.20 g intensity, the probabilities of not achieving RO and FR immediately after the earthquake are 100%, and 100%, respectively, for the BAB. Similar probabilities are reported for the other seismically enhanced buildings. The large outputs are mostly because of the damage to non-structural components such as mechanical–electrical–plumbing, ceilings, and partitions, which need to be repaired/replaced before occupants can reoccupy the office buildings.
Regarding the building performance in terms of rapidity, which describes the probability of not achieving a recovery state within a specified time, the results for the S
a(T
1) = 0.20 g intensity are summarized in
Figure 9. Assuming as target recovery time that the buildings should be repaired within 4 months, the probabilities that the downtime required to achieve RO exceeds the target recovery time are 95% (BAB in
Figure 9a), 90% (BAB+ENC in
Figure 9b), 60% (BAB+FVD in
Figure 9c), and 55% (BAB+FVD+ENC in
Figure 9d). Moreover, the probabilities that the downtime required to achieve FR exceeds 4 months are 98% (BAB), 97% (BAB+ENC), 87% (BAB+FVD), and 85% (BAB+FVD+ENC). It is worth noting that these downtime assessments are related to the resilience of the built infrastructure, where more than 4 months to achieve FR implies large social impacts.
As mentioned before, although comparisons at different intensity levels can be valuable, it should be considered that each S
a(T
1) intensity is associated with a different probability of occurrence. Similarly to economic losses, the recovery times were integrated with the absolute value of the derivative of the hazard curve to estimate the EAD, according to Equation (3). The EAD, which represents the average annual downtime due to seismic damage, also plays a key part in the evaluation of different enhancement strategies with FVDs and/or ENCs.
where
E[
DT|
IM] represents the downtime function and
represents the derivative of the hazard curve.
Table 7 shows the EAD as a ratio of the BAB reconstruction time and also the time in units of days. In this study, the reconstruction time of the archetype building was calculated assuming that the construction of each story takes 24.5 days. This results in a total of 465.5 days for the 16-story archetypes. In addition, the median building demolition time was estimated as 550 days based on the data from the demolition times of the Chilean buildings that suffered severe damage in the 2010 earthquake. Therefore, the resultant total building replacement time is 1015.5 days. The table shows the EAD values to achieve reoccupancy RO state to be equal to 6.6, 4.0, 5.0, and 2.6 days for the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC archetypes, respectively. In addition, the EAD values to achieve FR state are equal to 9.5, 9.1, 8.6, and 8.3 days for the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC, respectively. A comparison between EAD values to achieve FR indicates that the strategy of incorporating FVDs gives a 10% reduction in the base EAD, while the strategy of including ENCs gives a reduction of only 4%. For the strategy that combines FVDs and ENCs the reduction is about 13% of the base EAD. These results, which correspond to median predictions of downtime, highlight how damage that requires only moderate repair costs could result in excessive downtimes, leading to the displacement of occupants with associated indirect costs.
4.3. Earthquake-Induced Life-Cycle Cost
Time-based assessments were performed to evaluate the probable performance of the four archetypes over a specified period of time (e.g., t = 50 years, assumed equal to the building economic life in this study) considering all earthquakes that could occur in that time period, and the probability of occurrence associated with each earthquake. Mean annual values such as EAL and EAD were taken from the analysis described in the former paragraphs. These annual values were useful for a benefit–cost study because they can be associated with reasonable insurance premiums. From the EAL, the annual direct economic costs were USD 2.1, USD 1.8, USD 1.5, and USD 1.4 per square meter for the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC archetypes, respectively. It was assumed that the cost associated with each day of downtime was USD 0.5 per square meter in lost rent. This results in annual indirect economic costs of USD 4.8, 4.6, 4.3, and 4.2 per square meter for the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC archetypes, respectively. Combining direct and indirect costs results in a total expected annual loss (EALt) of USD 6.9, 6.4, 5.8, and 5.6 per square meter for the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC archetypes, respectively.
The benefit–cost study involved a comparison between the net present value of average annual losses that are avoided through enhanced seismic performance and the initial construction costs associated with providing enhanced seismic performance. Using the discount rate (DR) concept, according to Equation (4), the EALt of the next 50 years can be brought to present value (PV) and combined with the initial construction cost (CC).
The expected life-cycle cost (ELCC), a parameter with which decisions can be made, is calculated as shown in Equation (5). The ELCC facilitates the economic evaluation of the base archetype BAB and of each seismic performance improvement strategy.
Given the variations in interest rates worldwide as well as in the Chilean economy in recent years (post-pandemic era), a parametric study was carried out taking DRs around 6% ± 3%. The initial CCs of the BAB, BAB+ENC, BAB+FVD, and BAB+FVD+ENC archetypes were assumed equal to USD 1660, 1710, 1710, and 1755 per square meter, respectively.
Figure 10 shows the variation in the ELCC at different DRs for the four archetype buildings. Moreover,
Table 8 presents a summary of the costs. Regarding the outcomes, for all the range of DRs the BAB base building has the lowest ELCC, while the highest costs belong to the building that incorporates both FVDs and ENCs. For the BAB+FVD strategy, the ELCCs were slightly lower than those of the BAB+ENC strategy. For the largest DRs, costs were very similar for both the BAB+FVD and BAB+ENC strategies.
It is worth mentioning that even though the previous ELCCs have been analyzed based on varying levels of DRs (0% to 9%) and a reasonable number of ownership years (50 years, which is common for office building occupancy), the BAB base building always presented the lowest ELCC. This can be explained by the already-high seismic performance of code-conforming RC buildings in Chile (particularly due to their high stiffness, which reduces losses from damage to non-structural drift-sensitive components) and the lower cost fraction of non-structural components compared to other locations (e.g., California).
However, it is important to note that the decision to choose between these design strategies is not solely based on the ELCC; it might also involve stakeholders’ risk preferences and indirect costs (e.g., downtime) during the decision-making process. For example, a risk-averse stakeholder might still choose the strategy of BAB+FVDs to avoid low-probability/high-consequence losses and reduce the expected downtime, whereas a risk-neutral stakeholder would choose the BAB strategy. Further research is needed to incorporate these preferences.
Finally, since current Chilean seismic design provisions primarily focus on life safety and structural integrity during seismic events, with limited emphasis on recovery times, the resilience-based seismic design insights obtained in this study could play a crucial role in updating these provisions in Chile and other seismically active regions.
In the future, seismic design provision in Chile might include considerations for direct economic losses and downtime (it is worth noting that still Chilean codes do not include consideration for maximum probabilities of collapse, which are already included in ASCE 7-2022). As an initial step, quantifying economic losses and downtime for high-importance or high-occupancy buildings, such as hospitals, could become a requirement. This process would enable the establishment of future performance limits that balance enhanced resilience with reduced economic impacts and manageable initial construction costs.
By integrating these resilience-based principles into seismic design provisions, Chile and other seismically active regions can transition toward more comprehensive frameworks that address both immediate safety and long-term resilience, ensuring economic sustainability and faster recovery after seismic events.