4.1. Data Source and Processing
The research data were mainly obtained from various sources, including the China Statistical Yearbook, China Rural Statistical Yearbook, China Insurance Statistical Yearbook, China Environmental Statistical Yearbook, China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook, China Civil Affairs Statistical Yearbook, China Social Statistical Yearbook, China Education Statistical Yearbook, China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Rural Finance Yearbook, China Finance Yearbook, and local statistical yearbooks of the 30 provinces. In addition, data were obtained from the China Economic Database and the China Stock Market & Accounting Research Database.
Due to significant data gaps in Tibet and notable differences in data collection methods and statistical standards among Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan compared to other provinces, data comparability could potentially be undermined. Therefore, this study chose to use only data from the remaining 30 provinces, excluding the above four regions, for the years 2011 to 2020 as the primary analytical basis for our investigation. In addition, interpolation methods were used for data processing to address missing data in individual years.
According to the classification of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this study divided China’s economic regions into four major areas: the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions. The eastern region includes Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan. The central region includes Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. The western region includes Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. Finally, the northeast region consists of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang.
4.2. Three-Stage DEA Results
Before performing an efficiency analysis, it was crucial to verify that the input and output variables satisfy the ’homogeneity’ assumption. To this end, a Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was conducted for both the input and output variables. The results revealed a significant positive correlation between the output and input variables at the 0.01 level of significance.
(1) The evaluation results of stage 1
In this part, we employed the BCC-DEA model in conjunction with DEAP2.1 to compute the overall technical efficiency (TE), pure technical efficiency (PTE), and scale efficiency (SE) concerning financial support for rural revitalization across 30 Chinese provinces during stage 1, which encompasses the years from 2011 to 2020. The results are presented in
Table 4.
Table 4 presents a clear regional distribution of overall technical efficiency (TE), pure technical efficiency (PTE), and scale efficiency (SE) in the first stage, with the trend in the east, central, west, and northeast in descending order. In 2011, 11 provinces were on the efficiency frontier, but this number dropped to five by 2020. Fujian, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Hubei maintained their positions on the efficiency frontier for a decade. However, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Xinjiang consistently had lower levels of both overall technical efficiency (TE) and pure technical efficiency (PTE) throughout the ten years.
(2) SFA regression
In the second stage, we conducted a regression analysis analogous to Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) using Frontier 4.1. In this analysis, we selected the slack variables of four input indicators as dependent variables, which encompass agricultural insurance density, population coverage of branches within rural financial institutions, population coverage of staff within rural financial institutions, and per capita balance of agricultural credit. We introduced three environmental variables as independent variables: local fiscal support, natural disasters, and regional economy. To ensure the accuracy of the data analysis, these environmental variables were standardized to eliminate the potential impact of inconsistent units. The detailed regression analysis results are shown in
Table 5.
As indicated in
Table 5, the log-likelihood (LR) values for all models are significant at the 0.01 level, thereby robustly endorsing the appropriateness of employing the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model. The gamma values, as presented in the regression equations, are 0.885, 0.93, 0.929, and 0.741, respectively, each significant at the 0.01 level. These findings suggest that environmental variables substantially influence the efficiency of rural financial inputs, corroborating the necessity of using SFA regression analysis.
Local fiscal support: The impact coefficient of local fiscal support on the input variable of agricultural credit is −4896.892, which is significant at the 0.01 level of significance. This result indicates that as local fiscal support increases, the slack of agricultural credit inputs decreases significantly. However, for the two input variables of agricultural insurance density and population coverage of staff in rural financial institutions, local fiscal support showed a positive and significant coefficient relationship. This means that an increase in fiscal support leads to an increase in the slack of these two inputs, which may reduce resource utilization efficiency.
Natural disasters: Natural disasters have a negative and significant correlation with all input variables, suggesting that their occurrence significantly reduces the slack of the input factors.
Regional economy: The impact coefficient of the regional economy on agricultural credit, among the environmental variables, is positive and significant at the 0.01 level, indicating that an improvement in the regional economy leads to an increase in agricultural credit slack. Conversely, the impact coefficient of the regional economy on variables such as agricultural insurance and financial infrastructure investment is negative and significant, indicating that as the regional economy develops, the slack of these two investments decreases.
(3) The evaluation results of stage 3
In this stage, we recalculated the efficiency of financial support for rural revitalization in China with adjusted inputs using the BCC-DEA model.
Table 6 reveals that upon mitigating the impacts of external factors and random errors, notable changes are evident in efficiency across the period from 2011 to 2020.
Compared to
Table 4 and
Table 6, the efficiency of financial support for rural revitalization during the third stage mirrors that of the first stage, continuing to exhibit regional disparities characterized by the trend ‘East > Central > West > Northeast’. Nevertheless, the number of provinces positioned on the efficiency frontier in the third stage decreased relative to the first stage.
The disparities in overall technical efficiency (TE) between various provinces at stages 1 and 3 are evident. These variations indicate that the chosen environmental variables significantly influence the TE associated with financial support for rural revitalization. Specifically, from 2011 to 2020, most provinces demonstrated substantial enhancement in their TE. Nevertheless, there were several conspicuous exceptions: Hainan, Hunan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Chongqing experienced a decline in TE. Particularly noteworthy is the case of Hubei Province, which had a TE value of 1 in stage 1, signifying its position on the efficiency frontier. However, its average TE decreased to 0.938 at stage 3.
Overall technical efficiency (TE) can be decomposed into two components: pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). A comparison between the first and third stages reveals that almost all provinces achieved some degree of improvement in their pure technical efficiency. This indicates that the elimination of environmental variables and random noise has a substantial impact on pure technical efficiency. Furthermore, most provinces exhibited a decline in scale efficiency in the third stage compared to the first. This suggests that PTE is the primary driver of the TE increase.
4.3. Analysis of Dynamics
In this section, we evaluate the efficiency of financial support for rural revitalization over different periods using the Malmquist index model. Our analysis is based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020 and employs DEAP 2.1. The results are presented in
Table 7 and
Table 8.
Table 7 illustrates the trend in the Malmquist index and its decomposition, which measures the efficiency of China’s financial support for rural revitalization from 2011 to 2020. The technical progress index (TECH) exhibits an average annual growth rate of 0.2%. This is in contrast to the technical efficiency index (EFFCH), which experienced an average annual decline of 1.1%. A closer examination reveals that the pure technical efficiency index (PECH) contributes to this decline, with an average annual decrease of 1.4%, while the scale efficiency index (SECH) shows a more positive trend, with an upswing of 4.7% per year.
Additionally,
Table 7 illustrates that the evolutionary trends in total factor productivity (TFPCH) and the technical progress index (TECH) are fundamentally similar. However, total factor productivity (TFPCH) exhibits less fluctuation compared to the technical progress index (TECH), which is attributed to the impact of the technical efficiency index (EFFCH). The overall trajectory of the TFPCH index was downward, with a mean value of 0.991, indicating an average rate of decline of 0.9%.
The findings from the analysis mentioned above indicate that despite the gradual increase in financial support for rural development across various regions, there has been a noticeable decline in the efficiency of resource utilization. Therefore, as certain provinces increase their overall allocation of financial resources, there is an urgent need to examine the distribution of financial resources and improve the efficiency of resource utilization.
According to
Table 8, the efficiency of financial support for rural revitalization improved in 10 provinces, as indicated by a total factor productivity (TFPCH) score greater than 1. These provinces include Fujian, Hainan, and Shanghai in the eastern region; Anhui and Hubei in the central region; and Gansu, Guizhou, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Yunnan in the western region. This indicates an upward trend in the efficiency of financial support for rural revitalization in these areas. Among them, Fujian, Shanghai, Hubei, and Yunnan have both EFFCH and TECH scores not less than 1, indicating that the improvement in their total factor productivity is due to the combined contribution of EFFCH and TECH. For Hainan, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, the EFFCH is less than 1 while the TECH is greater than 1, indicating that the improvement in their TFPCH is mainly due to the contribution of TECH. For the remaining provinces, the EFFCH is greater than 1, but the TECH is less than 1, indicating that the improvement in their TFPCH is mainly due to the contribution of EFFCH.
Total factor productivity (TFPCH) varies across regions in China. Specifically, the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions had average TFPCHs of 0.993, 0.995, 0.997, and 0.954, respectively. This indicates a performance ranking from highest to lowest as follows: western > central > eastern > northeastern. In addition, the total factor productivity is less than 1 in most areas of China. The effectiveness of financial support for rural revitalization is declining. A significant discrepancy between rural financial demand and supply has led to the problem of superfluous financial input.