A Systematic Study of Mathematical Modeling for Sustainable Community-Based Disaster Risk Management
Abstract
1. Introduction
- a.
- What types of mathematical models have been applied to support CBDRM?
- b.
- Do these studies include financial risk mitigation partially, conceptually, or through practical implementation? Additionally, who are the major organizations or stakeholders engaged in the CBDRM efforts, irrespective of the connection to financial mechanisms?
- c.
- What essential components have been identified in existing studies for the design and implementation of financial risk mitigation mechanisms in CBDRM?
2. Methods
3. Results
3.1. Bibliometric Analysis
3.2. Main Review Results
3.2.1. Classification by Model Type
3.2.2. Level of Incorporation of Financial Risk Mitigation
- Level 1—No explicit financial incorporation
- Level 2—Conceptual or partial financial reference
- Level 3—Explicit financial incorporation
3.2.3. Structural Components
4. Discussion
4.1. Study Gaps
4.2. Future Study
4.3. Limitations of the Review
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| CBDRM | Community-based disaster risk management |
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| No | Author(s) | Mathematical Model | Model Function | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Faiz and Harrison [33] | Mean Risk Model as Mixed-Integer Linear Programing | The definitions of sets, parameters, and the decision variables are as shown in [33]. | Incorporating hazard uncertainty alongside low-probability, high-impact events. Combining fragility functions to model building vulnerability, with population dislocation models based on demographic data. Analyzing community resilience through two major metrics, namely, the number of households displaced and the time to restore essential services. |
| 2 | Eze and Siegmund [35] | - | - | - |
| 3 | Fakhruddin et al. [26] | Additive Weight-Based Aggregation | signifies the normalized indicator. | Assessing the vulnerability of urban infrastructure systems to disasters and climate change. |
| 4 | Aroca- Jiménez et al. [34] | Incorporated Multidimensional Vulnerability Index and Incorporated Multidimensional Resilience Index | with statistical models, Spearman correlation, ordinary least squares, and geographically weighted regression. | Measuring multi-dimensional vulnerability (social, economic, physical, ecosystem, institutional, cultural). |
| 5 | Chen et al. [36] | Community Risk Management Capacity for Debris Flow | signifies the capabilities of each criterion layer, with the statistic model R hierarchical clustering for the category of indicator, coefficient of variation for indicator selection, entropy-weighted gray correlation analysis for entropy weight and correlation, linear weighted synthesis for score aggregate, and contribution degree model for three different management types (prevention-oriented, emergency-oriented, recovery-oriented). | Developing a risk management evaluation system for multi-ethnic communities that were vulnerable to disasters and had socio-economic challenges, with three categories. |
| 6 | Naqvi [37] | Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model | was defined as per unit of output times the total output produced by workers: or wage rate times worker productivity siginfied by was defined as every time, defined as . Locations sold the goods being produced in different locations in the region or exported the goods outside the region. Unit costs were determined as , defined as signifies the probability of migrating based on the real income ratio of the target location to the current location. | Mapping the impact of major earthquakes. |
| 7 | Pagano et al. [38] | - | - | - |
| 8 | Kalogiannidis et al. [28] | Multiple Linear Regression | are the regression coefficients of the two independent variables. | Testing the relationship between school systems and increased disaster risk reduction capacity. |
| 9 | Tadesse and Zeleke [27] | Logistics Distribution Function | represents the disturbance term. | Controlling selection bias and evaluating the impact of the productive safety net program on daily calorie consumption, annual consumption expenditure, household income, livestock ownership, and housing conditions. |
| 10 | Hochrainer-Stigler et al. [29] | General Linear Modeling | Statistical analysis using | Measuring community flood resilience. |
| 11 | Wang and Lindt [39] | Two-Step Residential Recovery Model | captured administrative and resource-related delays. The repair phase captured physical construction time based on damage state, using fragility and restoration data. The total time required for each building to be fully restored could be determined by combining the delay time and repair time. For each time step, there was a probability that each building was fully recovered. Therefore, the percentage of residential buildings that were fully restored could be calculated. and where | Modeling two stages of recovery, namely, delay time and repair time, and considering the distribution of household income in determining the source of repair financing. |
| 12 | Harrison et al. [31] | - | - | - |
| 13 | Lefutso et al. [40] | Discrete Choice Experiment and Mixed Logic Model | The utility that individuals derive from selecting alternative insurance options is the random error term that captures unobserved factors assumed to follow a Gumbel distribution. The econometric model that was finally applied to derive the WTP of individuals was in selected task t was is the parameter. The willingness to pay of individuals was computed by represent the marginal utility of each attribute. | Exploring the preferences of poor individuals toward flood insurance attributes (coverage size, premiums, and excess costs) and considering the heterogeneity of preferences between individuals. |
| 14 | Han and Koliou [32] | Resilience Index, Community Resilience Index, and Model Fragility Functions | The resilience index for an individual system was represents the time variant functionality of the system. The community resilience was calculated by th system. This mitigation strategy focused on business resilience after a tornado. Following damage assessment, contractor mobilization and financing proceeded in parallel, and insured businesses filed claims, while others took loans. Each step, including permit acquisition, introduced delays that could be modeled using fragility functions. are the median and dispersion of the fragility function, respectively. | Modeling community resilience to tornadoes for structural damage and recovery delays. |
| 15 | Holcombe et al. [25] | Present Value Calculation of Landslide Costs | was was The definitions of variables and assumption are shown in [25]. | Calculating the probability of a landslide event multiplied by the exposure and vulnerability of elements at the location. |
| 16 | Khan et al. [30] | Livelihood Vulnerability Index and Ordered Logistic Regression Model | Various factors such as socio-demographics, livelihood strategies, social networks, health, food, water, and climate-related disasters were considered to assess livelihood vulnerability at the union level. Each sub-component was first standardized to a 0–1 scale using this equation. are the minimum and maximum values, respectively, of the same indicator. Calculation of the average of the principal components: is the number of sub-components in each major component. Calculation of the weighted value of each dimension of LVI (IPCC): is the number of major components under each dimension. The three dimensions were finally combined to generate the LVI (IPCC) after computing the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity: (the weighted mean of the major components, namely, health, food, and water). The Kruskal–Wallis H Test was used to differentiate vulnerability between groups, and an ordered logistic regression model was used to identify significant indicators that influenced vulnerability. | Measuring household vulnerability to climate disasters and identifying significant indicators that influence vulnerability. |
| 17 | Yin et al. [24] | Disaster Risk Formula, Urban Rainfall Intensity Formula, Surface Runoff Model using SCS Curve Number, Waterlogging Estimation Model, Loss Estimation Based on Stage-Damage Curve, and Annual Risk Model | The possibility of expected losses: signifies exposure to the element of risk, including buildings, population, property, or other human activities. Calculation of different intensities of rainfall: representes the duration of rainfall. Surface runoff model using the SCS curve number: is curve number. Waterlogging estimation model: ) was defined as the area under the risk curve: . | Spatial mapping of inundation, vulnerability, losses, and risk evaluation. |
| Author(s) | Financial Risk Mitigation | Local Government/Government | Community | Institute/ Company/ NGO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faiz and Harrison [33] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Eze and Siegmund [35] | ✔ | ✘ | ✘ | ✔ |
| Fakhruddin et al. [26] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Aroca- Jiménez et al. [34] | ✘ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Chen et al. [36] | ✘ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Naqvi [37] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Pagano et al. [38] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Kalogiannidis et al. [28] | ✘ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Tadesse and Zeleke [27] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Hochrainer-Stigler et al. [29] | ✔ | ✘ | ✘ | ✔ |
| Wang and Lindt [39] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Harrison et al. [31] | ✘ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Lefutson et al. [40] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Han and Koliou [32] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Holcombe et al. [25] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✘ |
| Khan et al. [30] | ✘ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Yin et al. [24] | ✘ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| No. | Component | Description | Example from Reviewed Studies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Risk Pooling Mechanism | A collective fund to spread disaster risk in the community or across regions | Spatial agent-based model explored impact zones and potential to incorporate risk pooling geographically [37] |
| 2 | Premium Structure | Contribution scheme paid by community members, including subsidies for vulnerable groups | Examined community preferences for premium size, coverage, and cost-sharing [40] |
| 3 | Trigger Mechanism | Conditions for payout based on objective indices or verified damages | Showed the role of index-based insurance activated by weather parameters [38] |
| 4 | Fund Holder/Financial Institution | Entity responsible for managing funds (government, NGO, private sector, or hybrid) | Prioritized multi-stakeholder coordination in risk-informed financial management [26] |
| 5 | Payout and Disbursement Process | Mechanism to deliver funds or assistance quickly post-disaster | Considered household income in recovery funding and timing of repairs [39] |
| 6 | Community Engagement and Capacity Building | Participation of local communities in design, monitoring, and education about schemes | Participatory modeling built awareness and strengthened ownership of risk solutions [31] |
| 7 | Regulatory and Policy Support | Enabling laws and policies to facilitate insurance, subsidies, or public–private partnerships | Discussed governance challenges and policy gaps in disaster financial protection [35] |
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Sukono; Susanti, D.; Nahar, J.; Ghazali, P.L.B.; Surya, H.A.; Ibrahim, R.A.; Azahra, A.S.; Sambas, A. A Systematic Study of Mathematical Modeling for Sustainable Community-Based Disaster Risk Management. Sustainability 2026, 18, 2711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062711
Sukono, Susanti D, Nahar J, Ghazali PLB, Surya HA, Ibrahim RA, Azahra AS, Sambas A. A Systematic Study of Mathematical Modeling for Sustainable Community-Based Disaster Risk Management. Sustainability. 2026; 18(6):2711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062711
Chicago/Turabian StyleSukono, Dwi Susanti, Julita Nahar, Puspa Liza Binti Ghazali, Hilda Azkiyah Surya, Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Astrid Sulistya Azahra, and Aceng Sambas. 2026. "A Systematic Study of Mathematical Modeling for Sustainable Community-Based Disaster Risk Management" Sustainability 18, no. 6: 2711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062711
APA StyleSukono, Susanti, D., Nahar, J., Ghazali, P. L. B., Surya, H. A., Ibrahim, R. A., Azahra, A. S., & Sambas, A. (2026). A Systematic Study of Mathematical Modeling for Sustainable Community-Based Disaster Risk Management. Sustainability, 18(6), 2711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062711

